Vision 2030 – Water, sanitation and climate change: Policy

implications

Dr Guy Howard, DFID

Dr Jamie Bartram, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

IntroductionWater and sanitation provision in the future

must be resilient to climate changeBut:

What factors contribute to the vulnerability of W&S technologies to climate change?

What adaptations can be made to W&S to increase resilience to climate change?

What are the policy implications?

DfID-WHO Vision 2030 study

DFID and WHO jointly commissioned study into watsan technology resilience to climate change Decadal forecasts for rainfall 2020 and

2030 by Hadley Centre (average and heavy 5-day events)

Review of technology resilience by Uni Surrey

Forward projections of coverage (total, urban, rural, and by technology)

Water supply and sanitation 2020

Data collected for the 2008 JMP report disaggregated into individual improved technologies. Rural and urban coverage calculated

Projections made to 2020 for rural and urban coverage.

Projections for each technology normalised to ensure overall coverage did not exceed 100%.

Projections represented graphically.

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Climate resilience of watsan technologies

Three methods used to assess the resilience of technologies to climate change:Literature reviewInterviews with W&S expertsQuestionnaire surveyResults expressed as a series of

vulnerability matrices

Potential impact of climate change on sustainability of sanitation

Potential impact of climate change on sustainability of water supply

Policy implicationsUtilities more resilient because of strong

potential adaptive capacityOnly small number of technologies likely

to have global application in future – others only regional or local - JMP criteria will need to change

At-house water supply desirable – but not necessarily through piped water

Policy implications cont'd

WSPs provide framework for supporting adaptation - Risk-based approach covering source to cup

But will need to develop scenario-based planning

Need improved water resources management to support resilience

Resilience – major findingsAll technologies have some potential resilience

Actual resilience depends on local conditions and management

Larger utility systems higher potential resilience than small towns and community management

Resilience of water supply technologies

Technology Resilience IssuesTubewells High Motorised pumping may pose challenge in

drying environments

Dug wells Low Problems with water quality and securing year-round supply already problematic

Protected springs Low-medium Water quality threats from increased rainfall and reduced flow in drying environments

Household roof rainwater

Low Reduced frequency but more intense rain and drying environments pose threats

Treatment processes Medium Processes are resilient, but management systems will determine actual resilience

Piped water Low High inherent vulnerability, impact can be reduced with effective management

Resilience of sanitation technologies

Technology Resilience Issues

Pit latrines High Many adaptations possible, but flooding will represent a particular challenge

Septic tanks Low-medium Vulnerable to flooding and drying environments

Modified sewerage

Medium Less vulnerable than conventional sewerage to reduced water quantity, but flooding a threat

Conventional sewerage

Low-medium Risk from reduced water availability and flooding of combined sewers

Sewage treatment

Low-medium Treatment requirements may increase as carrying capacity reduces

Policy issues:Centralise or decentralise?Decentralisation will hedge drought

and floods risksBUT, management decentralisation

has poor record of sustainabilityMore frequent flooding increases

importance of avoiding critical pointsNeed to (re-)consider greater

centralised management support

Higher service levels and climate changePost 2015 targets need greater ambition!

At-house piped water supply Unclear how many such supplies be delivered via piped systems

Are alternatives (self-supply) viable?

Monitoring needs to change

Category Technologies/approach

Potentially resilience to all expected climate changes

Utility piped water supply (including treatment systems)

Tubewells

Pit latrines

Low-flush septic systems

Potentially resilience to most climate changes

Protected springs

Community-managed piped supplies

High-volume septic systems

Conventional and unconventional sewers

Potentially resilience to restricted climate changes

Rainwater harvesting

Dug wells

Key Conclusions

1. Need climate-smart policy and planning2. Need to translate potential resilience

into actual resilience3. Despite uncertainty, sufficient

knowledge for policy and planning in most regions

4. Need to resolve key knowledge gaps5. Adapting to climate change may

provide opportunities to improve sector delivery

Vision 2030 – Water, sanitation and climate change: Policy

implications

Dr Guy Howard, DFID

Dr Jamie Bartram, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill