Vietnam Development, Infrastructure And Public Policy Since Doi Moi

1. Development, Infrastructure, Public Policy in Vietnam sinceDoi Moi Presenter: Paul OConnor School of Property, Construction & Project Management

Undergrad degree BA (Asian Studies)

I have been visiting or living in Vietnam since late 1994 and have a house here

5 years working as a journalist/editor (I speak pretty good Vietnamese)

+10 years in the Federal, Northern Territory and Victorian public sectors

Post Grad Cert in PPPs (Melb.)

Master of Public Infrastructure (Melb.)

Candidate in Doctor of Project Management program (RMIT)

Sessional lecturer in the School of Property, Construction and Project Management

Recap: Socio-economic development sincedoi moi

Role of the state and public policy

Economic development and directions

Emerging infrastructure pressures by sector

Education

Health

WATSAN

Energy

Transport

Discussion: atriple bottom lineview of the sustainability challenge for Vietnam

Reduction of poverty rate from 58% in 1993 to 16% in 2006 (source=ADB)

People living below the official poverty line fell from 20.2% in 2005 to 12.3% in 2009 (source=ADB)

Expanded exports to account for 40% of GDP

Averaged 7% GDP growth p.a. between 1990 and 2009 (source=ADB)

Achieved bilateral trade agreement with USA in 2000

Joined WTO in 2006

FDI of$1.3-1.8 billion in 200206, soared to $6.6 billion in 2007 and $9.3 billion in 2008

The current Socio-Economic Development Plan of Viet Nam (SEDP) 20062010 set Viet Nams goal of becoming a middle income country by 2010 and an industrialized nation by 2020.

The state has a key role to play in setting policy agenda, although its impact on micro-economic results is limited

Regulatory bodies are becoming more effective due to legislative and institutional reform and enforcement

Legacy of top-down ( grandiose ) planning approach needs adaptation to a ( realistic ) bottom-up approach

Decree-based governance inhibits jurisdiction alignment from: centralcity/provincedistrictcommune

However, ideology is progressive and global in outlook

Opportunity to leverage goodwill through targeted practical assistance and capacity-building programs

Goal of Vietnam is to become a middle-income nation

Has been achieved (if informal economy is included)

Substantial increase in export industries

However, limited import substitution achieved

Ideology is to become a modern and industrial society

implies continued growth of some dirty industries

continued usage of low-cost rural labour force in factories

further development of the urban middle-class

expansion of the professional services cadre

Rapid and chaotic urbanization, compounded by uncontrolled increase in car ownership (seen by middle class asmotif of affluence )

Agriculture and aquaculture focus is on food security and exports

Environment largely seen as resource to exploit, rather than manage

Emerging infrastructure pressures by sector:

Information and Communication Technology

Energy

Education

Health

Water and Sanitation (WATSAN)

Transport

(Defence, justice and public order)

Telephone penetration is very high

PC usage is high

Optical fibre network being rolled-out to all communes

Challenges

Productivity dividend?

Internet and knowledge industries?

Digital divide?

Generational gaps in uptake?

Energy

Emerging power shortages and brown outs due to economic growth and use of aircon in HCM City

North/South transmission inefficiency

Import of hydro from Laos and China

Challenges

More effective use of gas resources, particularly in the South?

Better use of private capital via independent power producers?

Tariff structures?

GHG strategy?

Role of nuclear?

Education

Universal primary schooling

Pedagogy approach needs renewal

State secondary schooling system defined by exam exclusion

Challenges

Private vs. State funding gap?

Quality of universities?

Accreditation of higher degrees?

Role of foreign universities?

Technical and trades training?

Health

Very basic under-funded state sector

Good technical competency of clinicians

Challenges

Increasing middle class expectations

Uncontrolled growth of private sector

Export of nurses

Flight of doctors to private practice

Role of private capital? (Build Own Transfer model to build facilities?)

WATSAN

Patchy availability of clean water, even in the larger cities

Challenges

Poor sewerage and drainage systems causing environmental pollution

Low state-sanctioned tarriffs are not sufficient for re-investment

Over-reliance on ODA for capital works

Waterborne diseases still a concern, particularly in the rainy season

Role of private capital? (via PPPs)

Transport

Road and rail networks largely a legacy of French and American eras

Challenges

Massive demand for road investment due to booming car ownership in cities

Urban mass transit plans not being implemented in major cities

No cohesive North-South or intra-Asia rail freight strategy

Minimal linkage of ports to rail network

National rail system under invested in comparison to potential tonnage to be taken off roads

Ports/channels need modernisation and expansion to handle freight task

How balanced is sustainability in Vietnams current socio-economic goals and strategy?

What risks are emergent for VN, particularly external environmental risks such as climate change and restrictions on Mekong water flows?

Is it possible to balance these three areas of sustainability without compromising an outcome in another realm?

What role does policy have in resolving any observed imbalance?

Is the research literature asking or answering these questions?

Any questions?

My contact details:

Paul OConnor

DipPer&OpsMgt, DipGovMgt, BA(AsianStudies), GradCertPPPs (Melb.), MPubInfra (Melb.)

School of Property, Construction and Project Management

RMIT University

M: +61 438 077 469

Documents

Vietnam Development, Infrastructure And Public Policy Since Doi Moi