16
SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 Singapore 7 January 2014 Rating Change Venture Corporation Stronger Drivers Ahead Outlook brightening, upgrade to BUY. We upgrade Venture Corporation to BUY from HOLD in anticipation of an earnings recovery this year, as well as renewed interest in the stock on account of this and the sustainable dividend yield of almost 7%. At 14x P/E, the stock currently trades at below the 18-20x P/Es of its key comparables, and our new target price of SGD8.70 (16x FY14E EPS) teases 14% upside. Almost all its major business segments are expected to enjoy stable revenue growth in 2014E, with the Test & Measurement and Retail Store Solutions divisions possibly riding a cyclical upturn. Come 2015, a hot new product could be added into the mix, namely, 3D printer, where the valuations of the key industry players have reached heady levels of 50-70x earnings. Earnings poised to recover in 2014. We expect Venture to see earnings growth pick up by 11% in 2014E as its businesses recover from the poor performance in 1Q13. Potential cyclical upturns in the Test & Measurement and Retail Store Solutions segments, as well as fresh opportunities with new customers and new products such as 3D printing, could also result in better-than-expected upside to earnings in 2014E and 2015E. 3D printing to add a new dimension in 2015. Venture has built the first prototype of an industrial 3D printer for a new customer, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of 3D printers. We are optimistic on the potential for 3D printing, and anticipate the possibility of better revenue emerging from this segment by 2015. Even the Singapore government is investing half a billion dollars into developing this industry, as announced in its Budget 2013. Free cash flow supportive of full dividend. Our full-year 2013E EPS is SGD0.491, below our forecast dividend of SGD0.50 per share. However, based on our forecast free cash flow, we expect Venture to be able to maintain its dividend payouts in 2013E and 2014E, giving a yield of more than 6.5%. Despite a higher capex, we believe higher free cash flow is achievable due to prudent working capital management and lower tax payments. Venture Corporation – Summary Earnings Table FYE Dec (SGD m) 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue 2,387.7 2,317.1 2,358.8 2,473.5 2,558.6 EBITDA 199.9 203.4 226.1 234.4 241.5 Recurring Net Profit 139.7 134.6 149.0 155.1 162.3 Recurring Basic EPS (cents) 50.9 49.1 54.3 56.5 59.1 EPS Growth (%) (10.8) (3.6) 10.7 4.1 4.6 DPS (cents) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 P/E (x) 15.1 15.6 14.1 13.6 13.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.2 10.0 9.0 8.7 8.5 Div Yield (%) 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 P/BV (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Net Cash (SGD’m) 286.0 311.7 323.9 354.2 391.3 ROE (%) 7.6 7.5 8.3 8.6 8.9 ROA (%) 5.7 5.7 6.3 6.4 6.5 Consensus Net Profit (SGD m) 131 150 157 n/a Source: Company, Maybank KE Buy (from Hold) Share price: SGD7.68 Target price: SGD8.70 (from SGD7.63) Gregory YAP [email protected] (65) 6432 1450 Stock Information Description: Provides contract manufacturing services to electronics companies worldwide, as well as manufacturing, design, engineering, customisation and logistics services. Ticker: VMS SP Shares Issued (m): 274.8 Market Cap (USD m): 1664.5 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 1.3 ST Index: 3122.93 Free float (%): 59.0 Major Shareholders: % Aberdeen Asset Management 26.0 Sprucegrove Investment Management 8.0 Wong Ngit Liong 7.0 Key Indicators ROE – annualised (%) 6.9 Net cash (SGD m): 205.5 NTA/shr (SGD): 3.79 Interest cover (x): 112.4 Historical Chart Performance: 52-week High/Low SGD8.75/SGD7.06 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Absolute (%) 2.1 1.6 6.7 -5.4 0.0 Relative (%) 1.8 2.1 8.2 -2.3 1.4 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 VMS SP Equity .

Venture Corp research report 2014

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Maybank's research on Venture Corp's recovery

Citation preview

  • SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

    Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012

    Singapore

    7 January 2014 Rating Change

    Venture Corporation Stronger Drivers Ahead

    Outlook brightening, upgrade to BUY. We upgrade Venture Corporation to BUY from HOLD in anticipation of an earnings recovery this year, as well as renewed interest in the stock on account of this and the sustainable dividend yield of almost 7%. At 14x P/E, the stock currently trades at below the 18-20x P/Es of its key comparables, and our new target price of SGD8.70 (16x FY14E EPS) teases 14% upside. Almost all its major business segments are expected to enjoy stable revenue growth in 2014E, with the Test & Measurement and Retail Store Solutions divisions possibly riding a cyclical upturn. Come 2015, a hot new product could be added into the mix, namely, 3D printer, where the valuations of the key industry players have reached heady levels of 50-70x earnings. Earnings poised to recover in 2014. We expect Venture to see earnings growth pick up by 11% in 2014E as its businesses recover from the poor performance in 1Q13. Potential cyclical upturns in the Test & Measurement and Retail Store Solutions segments, as well as fresh opportunities with new customers and new products such as 3D printing, could also result in better-than-expected upside to earnings in 2014E and 2015E. 3D printing to add a new dimension in 2015. Venture has built the first prototype of an industrial 3D printer for a new customer, one of the worlds largest manufacturers of 3D printers. We are optimistic on the potential for 3D printing, and anticipate the possibility of better revenue emerging from this segment by 2015. Even the Singapore government is investing half a billion dollars into developing this industry, as announced in its Budget 2013. Free cash flow supportive of full dividend. Our full-year 2013E EPS is SGD0.491, below our forecast dividend of SGD0.50 per share. However, based on our forecast free cash flow, we expect Venture to be able to maintain its dividend payouts in 2013E and 2014E, giving a yield of more than 6.5%. Despite a higher capex, we believe higher free cash flow is achievable due to prudent working capital management and lower tax payments. Venture Corporation Summary Earnings Table FYE Dec (SGD m) 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue 2,387.7 2,317.1 2,358.8 2,473.5 2,558.6 EBITDA 199.9 203.4 226.1 234.4 241.5 Recurring Net Profit 139.7 134.6 149.0 155.1 162.3 Recurring Basic EPS (cents) 50.9 49.1 54.3 56.5 59.1 EPS Growth (%) (10.8) (3.6) 10.7 4.1 4.6 DPS (cents) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 P/E (x) 15.1 15.6 14.1 13.6 13.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.2 10.0 9.0 8.7 8.5 Div Yield (%) 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 P/BV (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Net Cash (SGDm) 286.0 311.7 323.9 354.2 391.3 ROE (%) 7.6 7.5 8.3 8.6 8.9 ROA (%) 5.7 5.7 6.3 6.4 6.5 Consensus Net Profit (SGD m) 131 150 157 n/a Source: Company, Maybank KE

    Buy (from Hold) Share price: SGD7.68 Target price: SGD8.70 (from SGD7.63) Gregory YAP [email protected] (65) 6432 1450 Stock Information Description: Provides contract manufacturing services to electronics companies worldwide, as well as manufacturing, design, engineering, customisation and logistics services. Ticker: VMS SP Shares Issued (m): 274.8 Market Cap (USD m): 1664.5 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m): 1.3 ST Index: 3122.93 Free float (%): 59.0 Major Shareholders: % Aberdeen Asset Management 26.0 Sprucegrove Investment Management 8.0 Wong Ngit Liong 7.0 Key Indicators ROE annualised (%) 6.9 Net cash (SGD m): 205.5 NTA/shr (SGD): 3.79 Interest cover (x): 112.4

    Historical Chart

    Performance: 52-week High/Low SGD8.75/SGD7.06 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Absolute (%) 2.1 1.6 6.7 -5.4 0.0 Relative (%) 1.8 2.1 8.2 -2.3 1.4

    6.50

    7.00

    7.50

    8.00

    8.50

    9.00

    Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

    VMS SP Equity

    .

  • 7 January 2014 Page 2 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    Upgrade to BUY Earnings poised to recover in 2014. We expect Venture to see earnings growth pick up by 11% in 2014E as its businesses recover from the poor performance in 1Q13. Potential cyclical upturns in the Test & Measurement (accounting for 26% of group revenue) and Retail Store Solutions (30%) segments, as well as fresh opportunities with new customers and new products such as 3D printing, could also result in better-than-expected upside to earnings in 2014E and 2015E.

    The exception is the Printing & Imaging segment, where M&A activities involving a key customer Intermec (which was acquired by Honeywell in Sep 2013) could result in a temporary slowdown in volume. However, we estimate that Intermec, as just one of 19 customers in this segment, accounts for only 2-3% of group revenue.

    Figure 1: Segmental revenue forecasts (YoY growth) Figure 2: Segmental revenue forecasts (%)

    Source: Maybank KE Source: Maybank KE

    2013 now looks like a fluke. 2013 has been mostly stable despite a poor performance in 1Q13, which is the main reason why we expect full-year earnings to decline 4%. 9M13 net profit has met 70% of our full-year forecast of SGD134m and we expect no surprises in 4Q13. The Printing & Imaging business did poorly in 1Q13 as key products reached end-of-life and were phased out in 4Q12/1Q13. 2013 was also affected by the continued slowdown of Networking & Communications division from the high base of 2011-2012, and the weakness of the US dollar. Since then however, Venture has shown consistent QoQ improvement, posting the first positive YoY growth in 3Q13.

    Figure 3: Quarterly results, 1Q12-3Q13 1Q13 was hit badly by Printing & Imaging due to products being phased out but there has been consistent QoQ improvement since then

    Figure 4: Segmental revenue trends, 1Q12-3Q13 Almost all segments hit a trough in 1Q13 with consistent QoQ improvement thereafter

    Source: Company Source: Company

    2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016FTest & Measurement/Medical/Others 581 636 646 665 686 YoY Growth (%) (7.4) 9.5 1.5 3.0 3.1 Networking & Communications 411 403 446 452 459 YoY Growth (%) (7.1) (1.9) 10.6 1.5 1.5 Computer Peripherals & Data Storage 259 281 277 281 285 YoY Growth (%) (5.5) 8.2 (1.2) 1.5 1.5 Retail Store Solutions & Industrial Products 734 713 749 812 853 YoY Growth (%) 7.5 (2.8) 5.0 8.5 5.0 Printing & Imaging 403 284 242 262 275 YoY Growth (%) (0.9) (29.4) (15.0) 8.5 5.0 Total Revenue 2,375 2,330 2,375 2,488 2,570 YoY Growth (%) (2.3) (1.9) 1.9 4.8 3.3

    24% 27% 27% 27% 27%

    17% 17% 19% 18% 18%

    11% 12%12% 11% 11%

    31% 31%32% 33% 33%

    17% 12% 10% 11% 11%

    0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

    100%

    2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

    Test & Measurement/Medical/Others Networking & Communications

    Computer Peripherals & Data Storage Retail Store Solutions & Industrial Products

    Printing & Imaging

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    480

    500

    520

    540

    560

    580

    600

    620

    1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

    SGD'

    m

    Revenue Net profit (RHS)

    50

    70

    90

    110

    130

    150

    170

    190

    1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

    SGD'

    m

    Test & Measurement/Medical/Others Networking & Communications

    Computer Peripherals & Data Storage Retail Store Solutions & Industrial Products

    Printing & Imaging

  • 7 January 2014 Page 3 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    Upgrade to BUY for 14% upside. We value Venture at SGD8.70, or 16x FY14E earnings, implying a 14% upside from current levels. In our view, this is still a conservative target relative to its comparables. For instance, Benchmark Electronics and Plexus, EMS providers that operate on a similar high-mix, low-volume model, are trading at an average of almost 18x current year forecast earnings, while Ventures own key customers such as Agilent Technologies are trading at 20x current year forecast earnings. In contrast, Ventures FY14E dividend yield of 6.5% is far superior to the 1-2% of both peer groups. From a historical standpoint, Venture also looks cheap, trading below its historical average since the Global Financial Crisis (Figures 6 and 7). We upgrade Venture to BUY from HOLD.

    Figure 5: Valuations peer comparison table

    Source: FactSet

    Figure 6: Venture forward P/E band Figure 7: Venture forward PBV band

    Source: FactSet Source: FactSet

    Last close Market Cap Net margin (%)

    Company (local crcy) (USD'm) Actual FY1 FY2 Actual FY1 FY2 Actual FY1 FY2 Actual Actual FY1 FY2Venture Corporation Limited 7.66 1664 16.0 14.0 13.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 6.5% 6.5% 6.8% 5.8% -4% 11% 4%

    High Mix, Low Vol EMS - Average 37.9 17.7 13.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% 5.6% -24.2% 84.1% 34.4%HI-P International Limited 0.59 413 28.1 15.7 13.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 2.0% 3.2% 4.2% 1.5% -60% 79% 17%Jabil Circuit, Inc. 17.19 3549 7.6 15.5 10.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% -6% -51% 48%Benchmark Electronics, Inc. 22.80 1231 19.0 15.8 14.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 21% -1% 21%Plexus Corp. 42.79 1449 18.4 16.1 14.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% -3% 15% 15%Planar Systems, Inc. 2.50 54 125.0 25.0 13.2 1.3 - - - - - -3.9% -105% 400% 90%LARGAN Precision Co., Ltd. 1215.00 5441 29.2 17.9 15.6 7.1 5.6 4.5 1.4% 1.8% 2.4% 27.8% 7% 63% 15%

    Key Customers - Average 25.4 20.5 16.7 3.3 2.9 2.6 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 5.0% 15.1% 24.2% 21.9%Agilent Technologies, Inc. 56.92 18887 19.8 17.8 15.9 3.6 3.1 2.7 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 10.7% -8% 11% 12%JDS Uniphase Corporation 13.03 2990 23.7 22.5 15.6 2.7 2.4 2.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% -7% 5% 44%Finisar Corporation 23.72 2280 37.1 14.9 13.4 2.9 2.5 2.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% -26% 148% 12%VeriFone Systems, Inc. 25.79 2848 17.9 18.4 13.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -17.4% -47% -3% 35%NCR Corporation 33.98 5654 13.6 12.3 10.9 4.4 3.4 2.7 0.0% - - 2.4% 30% 11% 12%MICROS Systems, Inc. 56.64 4264 23.8 23.0 20.7 4.0 3.8 3.3 - - - 13.5% 7% 4% 11%Ingenico SA 59.65 4309 22.1 19.0 16.5 4.5 4.0 3.5 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 8.0% 65% 50% 16%Toshiba Tec Corp. 729.00 2011 32.2 23.3 13.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1% 1.1% 1.9% 1.5% 142% 38% 70%Waters Corporation 98.04 8346 19.8 17.9 16.1 5.9 5.1 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 2% 0% 11%ABB Ltd. 23.60 60419 17.9 15.6 14.2 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 6.9% -16% 22% 15%PerkinElmer, Inc. 41.21 4632 20.0 17.1 15.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 3.2% 13% 0% 17%3D printing customer 136.46 6651 74.0 57.7 44.1 3.3 2.3 2.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 54% 24% 28%Hewlett-Packard Company 28.34 54095 7.7 7.5 7.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 4.6% -12% 3% 2%

    PER (x) EPS Growth (%)PBR Dividend yield (%)

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    13.0

    14.0

    15.0

    16.0

    17.0

    18.0

    +1 SD = 16.5x

    (x)

    Mean = 14.9x

    -1 SD = 13.3x

    0.9

    1.0

    1.1

    1.2

    1.3

    1.4

    1.5

    +1 SD = 1.4x

    (x)

    Mean = 1.2x

    -1 SD = 1.1x

  • 7 January 2014 Page 4 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    Key drivers in 2014

    Test & Measurement Agilent restructuring a boon. Key customer Agilent has proposed to split into two companies, one focusing on Life Sciences, Diagnostics and Applied Markets (LDA) and the other on Electronic Measurement (EM) devices. The split was motivated by investor preference for pure plays as Agilent is now categorised as a healthcare products company instead of an electronics products company. The high-growth healthcare business (LDA) now accounts for 52% of Agilents total revenue, up from 38% five years ago. However, despite its faster growth, LDA needs more capital than the cyclical but cash-generative EM business. In the past four years, Agilent invested USD3.8b in LDA compared to just USD100m in EM.

    In our view, the split will be good for both Agilent and Venture, its supplier in both businesses. There will be separate managements and both divisions will be able to focus resources and pursue growth independently. Venture expects the EM division to remain stable in 2014E with faster growth in 2015E as the cycle returns to its favour. EM currently contributes more revenue to Venture. But management thinks the higher-growth LDA division will be a larger contributor in 3-5 years.

    Figure 8: Agilent consensus estimates

    Source: FactSet

    Figure 9: Agilent product segments relevant to Venture

    Source: FactSet

    Networking & Communications customer relocation to drive growth. Venture is one-third of the way through relocating its manufacturing base from Shenzhen to Penang, Malaysia with its optical communications customer Oclaro. With full extraction by end-2014E, this will be a major revenue driver for this year. Similarly, payment solutions provider Verifone, which bought Ventures customer Hypercom in 2011, is expected to ramp up in 2015E.

    Figure 10: Oclaro consensus estimates

    Source: FactSet

    Figure 11: Verifone consensus estimates

    Source: FactSet

    EPS (USD) Growth (% YoY) Sales (USD'm) Growth (% YoY)Oct 2013A 2.87 -8 6782 -1Oct 2014F 3.19 11 7041 4Oct 2015F 3.57 12 7416 5Next reporting: 17 Feb 2014

    2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F- Electronic Measurement 2888 2959 3105 3169 % Growth (YoY) -13 2 5 2- Life Sciences 1808 2254 2377 2686 % Growth (YoY) 14 25 5 13

    EPS (USD) Growth (% YoY) Sales (USD'm) Growth (% YoY)Jun 2013A -1.38 nm 586 52Jun 2014F -1.00 nm 406 -31Jun 2015F -0.42 nm 438 8Next reporting: 30 Jan 2014

    EPS (USD) Growth (% YoY) Sales (USD'm) Growth (% YoY)Oct 2013A 1.44 -47 1709 -9Oct 2014F 1.41 -2 1793 5Oct 2015F 1.88 34 1948 9Next reporting: 4 Mar 2014

    Dont worry about the forecast losses for Oclaro as the main reason why it is using Venture as an EMS provider is to reduce

    its production cost in China. Oclaros business with Venture was negligible in

    2013 but is expected to ramp in 2014E as the relocation gains momentum. More importantly, the forecasts hint at lower

    losses, a sign that investors expect the relocation to succeed in reducing costs

    Investors expect a turnaround in 2014E-2015E on the back of a cyclical upturn

    for Agilents Electronic Measurement business as well as strong growth

    in the Life Sciences division

    Note the significantly faster growth expected of the Life Sciences division

    Verifone acquired Ventures customer Hypercom in 2011. It is expected to begin

    turning around in 2014E after a horrendous year in 2013. Venture has not only kept

    Hypercom as a customer but also gained Verifone as a new customer, and started

    shipping products for Verifone in 2Q13

  • 7 January 2014 Page 5 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    Retail Store Solutions potential upgrade cycle in the making. The Retail Store Solutions (RSS) business basically point-of-sales solutions for retailers and hospitality service providers is long overdue for a capex upgrade cycle but retail sales have not been cooperating. While retailers have been upgrading, they have done it on a piecemeal basis and have not invested en masse.

    Figure 12: US monthly retail trade and food services US retail sales growth, at 3.4% on average in 2013, is currently below its long-term average of 4.7%

    Figure 13: EU monthly retail trade index European Union retail sales growth is still below the long-term mean of 0.9%, albeit improving from recent lows

    Source: US Census Bureau Source: Eurostat

    Further, M&A activities in 2011-2012 involving its customers (eg, NCR acquired Radiant Systems, Toshiba TEC acquired IBM Retail POS) resulted in temporary disruptions to the supply chain. Ventures three largest RSS clients currently are NCR, Toshiba and MICROS Systems.

    Going forward, we see opportunities with MICROS and NCR that should allow the RSS business to remain stable in 2014E/2015E. MICROS in particular has introduced a new tablet cum fixed POS solution that Venture is confident will find favour with F&B retailers, while NCR is executing well on its post-acquisition integration with Radiant (POS systems) and Retalix (POS software). As for the ex-IBM business, Venture expects things to normalise this year after a good 2012-2013 when IBM customers brought more products in the wake of the acquisition by Toshiba TEC.

    Figure 14: NCR consensus estimates

    Source: FactSet

    Figure 15: MICROS Systems consensus estimates

    Source: FactSet

    Figure 16: Toshiba TEC consensus estimates

    Source: FactSet

    (10.0)

    (5.0)

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    50,000

    100,000

    150,000

    200,000

    250,000

    300,000

    350,000

    400,000

    %

    USD'

    m

    Monthly Retail Trade & Food Services (excl Auto) Seasonally adjusted YoY growth

    (5.0)(4.0)(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)-1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

    80.00

    85.00

    90.00

    95.00

    100.00

    105.00

    110.00

    Jan-

    01Au

    g-01

    Mar

    -02

    Oct-0

    2M

    ay-0

    3De

    c-03

    Jul-0

    4Fe

    b-05

    Sep-

    05Ap

    r-06

    Nov-

    06Ju

    n-07

    Jan-

    08Au

    g-08

    Mar

    -09

    Oct-0

    9M

    ay-1

    0De

    c-10

    Jul-1

    1Fe

    b-12

    Sep-

    12Ap

    r-13

    %

    Retail Trade Index (excl Motor Vehicles) Seasonally adjusted YoY growth

    EPS (USD) Growth (% YoY) Sales (USD'm) Growth (% YoY)Dec 2013A 2.77 11 6228 9Dec 2014F 3.12 12 6712 8Dec 2015F 3.60 16 7153 7

    EPS (USD) Growth (% YoY) Sales (USD'm) Growth (% YoY)Jun 2013A 2.38 7 1268 14Jun 2014F 2.46 4 1313 4Jun 2015F 2.73 11 1383 5Next reporting: 23 Jan 2014

    EPS (JPY) Growth (% YoY) Sales (JPY'm) Growth (% YoY)Mar 2013A 22.64 142 403693 15Mar 2014F 31.35 38 490500 22Mar 2015F 53.40 70 503450 3Next reporting: 29 Jan 2014

    Both NCR and MICROS expected to do better in 2014E-2015E compared to 2013.

    NCR is starting to execute well following its acquisition of Radiant in 2011, while

    MICROS has new POS solutions in the market

  • 7 January 2014 Page 6 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    Industrial Products executing well with key customers. Industrial products, which account for 50% of the total Retail Store Solutions & Industrial Products segment, should continue to do well. Two customers stand out Waters, a US-based liquid analytical instrument company, and ABB, a Swiss power and automation control systems company. Venture reports that it is executing well with Waters and is gaining traction with the manufacturing of the formers water chromatography devices, while ABBs momentum is expected to remain stable.

    Figure 17: Waters consensus estimates

    Source: FactSet Figure 18: ABB consensus estimates

    Source: FactSet

    Printing & Imaging some rough quarters ahead. Ruggedised handheld scanner maker Intermec, a key customer in this segment, was recently acquired by Honeywell Scanning & Mobility, which is also in the same business. Honeywell intends to integrate Intermecs products into its business and continue using Intermecs supply chain. But, as with any M&A integration, there are bound to be product overlaps that may affect volume. With a total of 19 customers in its Printing & Imaging division, we estimate that Intermec accounts for only 2-3% of Ventures total group revenue in 2013.

    In our view, the shortfall from Intermec could be mitigated by HP, which recently reported above-expectations results on the back of an acceleration in corporate IT spending. If HPs execution remains good, Ventures Printing & Imaging revenue should benefit from the turnaround in HPs prospects.

    Figure 19: HP consensus estimates

    Source: FactSet

    EPS (USD) Growth (% YoY) Sales (USD'm) Growth (% YoY)Dec 2013A 4.95 0 1873 2Dec 2014F 5.47 11 1967 5Dec 2015F 6.09 11 2075 5Next reporting: 21 Jan 2014

    EPS (CHF) Growth (% YoY) Sales (CHF'm) Growth (% YoY)Dec 2013A 1.32 18 37314 4Dec 2014F 1.49 13 38682 4Dec 2015F 1.63 10 40172 4Next reporting: 13 Feb 2014

    EPS (USD) Growth (% YoY) Sales (USD'm) Growth (% YoY)Oct 2013A 3.56 -12 112298 -7Oct 2014F 3.65 3 109057 -3Oct 2015F 3.76 3 108391 -1Next reporting: 19 Feb 2014

    Waters and ABB account for the bulk of the Industrial Products revenue in 2013. The

    duo, along with a private customer Elsters, are expected to do well in 2014E-2015E

    HPs earnings are expected to recover in 2014E-2015E on improving margins

    and cash flow

  • 7 January 2014 Page 7 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    3D printing the wild card In 2015 First 3D printer built for customer. Venture has built the first prototype of an industrial 3D printer for a new customer in Shanghai. The customer is one of the worlds largest manufacturers of 3D printers and a public company listed on NASDAQ. Although it started out as a high-end printer maker, recent developments, which included M&A, suggest that it intends to build a comprehensive presence in the fledgling 3D printing market, ranging from low-end consumer printers costing a few thousand dollars (excluding barebones hobbyist kits that can now be found for USD500-700) to high-end industrial printers that exceed USD500,000.

    What is 3D printing? Current 2D printers are used to print documents on pieces of paper, using either inkjet (depositing ink drops directly onto the paper) or laser technologies (passing a laser beam over a toner-charged drum to create an image that is then transferred to paper using heat). However, 3D printers can create a three-dimensional solid object of virtually any shape, typically using a plastic resin to build it up layer by layer.

    Wide-ranging applications. 3D printing was originally used for making rapid prototypes of new products before they are put into mass production using conventional manufacturing methods. This is still the largest commercial application at 70% of the 3D printing market. With technological improvements however, some industries have moved it out of the R&D lab onto the production floor on a small scale. For example, big car makers GM, Audi and Ford are 3D printing auto parts such as transmission cases, brake rotors and even small engine blocks. GE uses 3D printing to make aircraft engine parts, such as turbine blades and fuel nozzles, while Boeing 3D prints 200 parts for 10 aircraft platforms. In the healthcare industry, custom-printed hearing aids sold more than 1m units in 2011 and more than 40,000 hip cups (the socket for hip joint replacements) have been built using 3D printing. Even human body parts such as veins, arteries, hearts and ears can now be 3D printed, albeit not yet at the size of real human organs. Other early adopters also include the jewellery and clothing industries.

    Figure 22: 3D printed guitar and human ear Figure 23: 3D printed dress for Dita Von Teese

    Source: Various Source: Designed by Michael Schmidt, 3D printed by Shapeways

    Advantages of 3D printing. The pros of 3D printing are mainly two-fold. One, it does not waste materials because 3D printing is an additive manufacturing method, where the part is built up compared with the conventional subtractive methods, where the material is removed by cutting or drilling. Two, 3D printed parts are often lighter, if not stronger than conventionally made parts.

    Figure 20: Example of high-end 3D printer

    Source: Company Figure 21: Example of low-end 3D printer

    Source: Company

  • 7 January 2014 Page 8 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    But still in the hype stage. 3D printing technology was invented in the 1980s, and the current market leader 3D Systems went public in 1994. In the past two years however, media and public interest has exploded alongside the valuations of the US-listed market leaders 3D Systems (DDD US, market cap USD9.9b) and Stratasys (SSYS US, market cap USD6.6b). Some predict that half of US households will own a 3D printer by 2020. Hollywood has played its role too well as many consumers have been brought up on the idea of Star Trek-style matter replicators.

    Figure 24: Hype cycle for emerging technologies

    Source: Gartner

    Figure 25: 3D Systems forward P/E band Figure 26: Stratasys forward P/E band

    Source: FactSet Source: FactSet

    0.0

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    60.0

    70.0

    80.0

    90.0

    +1 SD = 52.6x

    (x)

    Mean = 33.7x

    -1 SD = 14.9x

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    60.0

    70.0

    80.0+1 SD = 57.0x

    (x)

    Mean = 44.7x

    -1 SD = 32.3x

    (x)

  • 7 January 2014 Page 9 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    Many obstacles still need to be overcome. The consumer market is made up of mainly hobbyists and enthusiasts, while the biggest commercial buyers are the universities and the automotive and aircraft industries. Retail prices are still high (at least USD1,299 for a basic one-material, one-colour printer that can only print parts up to 5.5x5.5x5.5) and patents on key print technologies will not expire for years. Ease of use needs to be improved, namely, the CAD/CAM software required to create 3D digital models. More colours need to be offered, consumable prices must come down and the printing itself must get faster. Without these factors, most consumers will probably not see the need to own a 3D printer. For industries, speed and capacity are the stumbling blocks as todays 3D printers are still very, very slow (at least four hours to print a small part) and does not translate into lower unit costs in the mass production stage, unlike conventional manufacturing.

    Quest for right business model. At this stage, companies themselves are unsure of how the emerging 3D personal manufacturing revolution will work out. As such, they are trying out various business models in the consumer market. Big retailers such as Office Depot and Staples are experimenting with a two-pronged product and services strategies, offering 3D printing services in their stores in Europe and selling USD1,299 printers in the US. Office Depot admitted that it is still tinkering with its strategy based on customer feedback.

    One study, which we think is realistic, was done by 3D printing industry analysis firm, Wohlers Associates. It estimated the industrys size at USD2.2b in 2012, up 29% from 2011, and forecasts the market to be worth USD6.5b by 2017. But this would still be a fraction of the size of the conventional manufacturing market of USD93b in 2012.

    Figure 27: Global market size of 3D printing The value of 3D printing products and services is expected to triple by 2017 and quintuple by 2021

    Figure 28: Value of 3D parts as % of total 3D market 3D printed final parts only account for 28% of the total market value of 3D printed products, with 70% still coming from prototypes

    Source: Wohlers Associates Source: Wohlers Associates

    Long-term opportunities for Venture. Venture sees strong long-term opportunities in 3D printing as it is skilled in the following areas that will be of great value to 3D printer customers.

    Specialist in electro-mechanical components. A 3D printer has many moving parts that must fit together and work flawlessly. Most importantly, the consumable delivery system is a key knowledge domain that Venture can bring to the table as it has deep experience in 2D printers. In fact, it is not well known that Venture has a subsidiary, VIPColor, which sells its own branded colour label printer with proprietary ink delivery technology.

    1.1 1.3 1.7

    2.2

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2015F 2017F 2019F 2021F

    USD'

    b

    3.9

    6.68.3

    9.911.7

    14.0

    17.2

    19.8

    24.0

    28.3

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

  • 7 January 2014 Page 10 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    Strong end-product design capabilities. Most prototypes form factors are usually not ready for final market launch, and Venture can play a critical role in materialising and/or neatening the final form factor. For example, it can help to create the hardware architecture, as well as redesign and recount the individual components. All of these will be high value-added design work that Venture can charge by the number of man-hours.

    A high-margin business. According to management, the 3D printer business is expected to yield a net margin in excess of 15%. This is in sharp contrast to its traditional net margin of 6-8%, which already makes Venture one of the most profitable EMS providers in the world. At this stage, Venture will focus on high-end 3D printers that cost more than USD1m each. It is also eyeing the mid-range printer market with price points above USD100,000. Its current 3D printer customer has made aggressive acquisitions in both the low-end and mid-range segments of the market and we believe this will translate into substantial opportunities for Venture.

    Figure 29: Net margin trend, 1Q03-3Q13 Long-term net margin has been around 5-9%, with a medium-term target of 6-8%. The 2008-2009 volatility was caused by CDO-related write-offs.

    Figure 30: Peer net margin comparison Venture has one of the highest margins in the global EMS industry, even at the current depressed end of its long-term range

    Source: Company, Maybank KE Source: Company, Maybank KE

    2015 should be the year for 3D. At this juncture, there will be some revenue in 2014 as Venture is just starting to develop the 3D printer business. We expect more substantive revenue upside from 3D printing in 2015 and beyond, although this cannot be quantified at present. We are optimistic on the long-term potential of 3D printing, not just because of the emerging opportunities and market excitement over the product, but also because the leading players have raised a substantial amount of capital that would help drive the growth of 3D printing. Closer to home, the Singapore government, in its Budget 2013 announcement, said it has set aside SGD500m over the next five years to promote 3D printing. Hence, we expect to see more 3D printing products and services coming to market by 2015. Hence, we are forecasting 8.5% growth in Printing & Imaging revenue in 2015E, reversing a 15% expected decline in 2014E.

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    1Q03 4Q03 3Q04 2Q05 1Q06 4Q06 3Q07 2Q08 1Q09 4Q09 3Q10 2Q11 1Q12 4Q12 3Q13

    %

    Reported Net Margin Normalised Net Margin

    0.9

    1.1

    1.2

    1.8

    2.0

    2.3

    2.9

    4.3

    5.9

    6.0

    0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

    Cal-Comp Electronics Thailand

    Wistron Corp

    Flextronics International

    Celestica

    Jabil Circuit

    Benchmark Electronics

    Hon Hai Precision Industry Co

    Amtek Engineering

    Venture Corp

    Asustek Computer

    %

  • 7 January 2014 Page 11 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    Dividends in the bank Free cash flow supportive of full dividend. Our full-year 2013E EPS is SGD0.491, below our forecast dividend of SGD0.50 per share (or SGD137m). However, based on our forecast free cash flow of SGD158m n 2013E and SGD147m in 2014E, we expect Venture to be able to maintain this level of dividend payouts in both years. At the current stock price, this would translate to a yield of more than 6.5%. Despite a higher capex, we believe higher free cash flow is achievable due to prudent working capital management and lower tax payments (following the recent clinching of tax-free pioneer status in Malaysia).

    Figure 31: Venture working capital assumptions

    Source: Company, Maybank KE Expanding capacity to support growth. Forward capex spending is almost always a key sign that a company is optimistic about its future. We expect Ventures capex for 2013E and 2014E to be higher than the usual annual maintenance capex of SGD25-30m as the company is expanding floor space in Singapore and Johor Bahru, Malaysia, in 2013/2014 in the first round of investment and again in Penang, Malaysia, in 2015.

    Specifically, this will involve:

    First round the purchase of two currently leased facilities in Tebrau and Senai, Malaysia, for MYR27.1m, and a currently leased Singapore factory for SGD38m. A 10% deposit has been paid in 3Q13 for both purchases and the balance will be fully paid by 4Q13 and 1Q14 respectively.

    Second round Venture has contracted to purchase land in the proposed Batu Kawan industrial area in Malaysia near Penang, which will be served by the Penang Second Bridge that opens next month. Its current manufacturing facility is in the Bayan Lepas industrial area on Penang island, and it looks like Batu Kawan will be a better location as it will be closer to the Second Bridge. However, the size of the land has not been determined and we anticipate the bulk of the capex (likely to be less than MYR100m) will only be incurred in 2015.

    2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016FNet cash (SGD'm) 286 312 324 354 391 Working capital (SGD'm) 643 635 646 712 736 Working capital (% of revenue) 27 27 27 29 29 Working capital days 98 100 100 105 105 - Inventory days 76 85 85 85 85 - Receivable days 66 65 65 70 70 - Payable days 44 50 50 50 50 Operating cashflow (SGD'm) 129 190 212 205 216 Capex (SGD'm) (30) (43) (59) (30) (30) Free cashflow (SGD'm) 99 147 152 175 186 Dividends 137 137 137 137 137

  • 7 January 2014 Page 12 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    PROFIT AND LOSS (SGD m) BALANCE SHEET (SGD m) FYE Dec 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E FYE Dec 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Sales 2,387.7 2,317.1 2,358.8 2,473.5 2,558.6 Total Assets 2,372.6 2,367.5 2,382.5 2,470.4 2,498.5

    Cost of goods sold (1,858.2) (1,781.8) (1,804.5) (1,892.2) (1,957.3) Current Assets 1,414.1 1,435.0 1,465.5 1,566.8 1,641.7 Gross Profit 529.5 535.3 554.3 581.3 601.3 Cash & ST investment 453.4 446.2 459.0 489.9 527.8

    Operating expenses (396.9) (398.6) (405.9) (426.7) (439.6) Inventories 497.4 539.6 549.3 576.0 595.8 Operating Profit 132.6 136.7 148.4 154.5 161.7 Accounts receivable 463.1 447.4 455.4 499.1 516.3 Net Interest 4.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 Others 0.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

    Interest Income 5.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 Non-current Assets 958.6 932.4 916.9 903.6 856.8 Interest Expense (1.6) (1.5) (1.3) (1.4) (1.4) LT investments 96.3 98.2 100.2 102.2 104.2

    Net Investment income/(loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net PPE 138.6 136.4 145.9 157.5 135.7 Net other non-op. JV+Assc. 6.1 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 Others 723.7 697.9 670.9 643.9 616.9 Net extraordinaries 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Liabilities 572.8 571.4 579.5 658.9 676.0 Pretax profit 143.0 140.2 151.4 157.6 164.9 Current Liabilities 559.3 553.9 562.0 608.1 625.2 Income taxes (3.9) (5.6) (2.2) (2.3) (2.4) Accounts payable 384.3 410.1 417.5 462.5 478.4 Minority Interest (0.6) (0.1) 0.1 0.2 0.2 ST borrowings 167.4 134.5 135.0 135.7 136.5 Net Profit 139.7 134.6 149.0 155.1 162.3 Others 7.6 9.3 9.4 9.9 10.2 EBITDA 199.9 203.4 226.1 234.4 241.5 Long-term liabilities 13.6 17.5 17.5 50.8 50.8 EPS (cents) 50.9 49.1 54.3 56.5 59.1 Long-term debts 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Convertible notes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 13.6 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 Shareholder's equity 1,797.4 1,793.8 1,800.7 1,809.1 1,820.0 Paid-in capital 673.2 675.0 675.0 675.0 675.0 Reserve 1,124.1 1,118.8 1,125.7 1,134.1 1,145.0 Minority Interest 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 CASH FLOW (SGD m) KEY RATIOS FYE Dec 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E FYE Dec 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Operating cash flow 161.0 200.9 206.4 195.3 201.7 Growth (% YoY)

    Net Profit 139.0 134.6 149.1 155.2 162.4 Sales (1.8) (3.0) 1.8 4.9 3.4 Depreciation & Amortisation 67.3 66.8 77.7 79.8 79.8 EBIT (14.8) 3.1 8.6 4.1 4.6 Change in Working Capital (15.1) (0.7) (10.4) (25.3) (21.1) EBITDA (5.7) 1.8 11.2 3.6 3.0 Others (24.4) 2.6 (7.8) (12.1) (16.9) Net profit (11.1) (3.2) 10.8 4.1 4.6

    Investment cash flow (33.2) (39.8) (56.9) (61.1) (27.5) EPS (10.8) (3.6) 10.7 4.1 4.6 Net Capex (29.6) (42.7) (59.2) (63.5) (30.0) Profitability (%) Net Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross Margin 22.2 23.1 23.5 23.5 23.5 Change in other assets (3.7) 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.5 EBITDA Margin 8.4 8.8 9.6 9.5 9.4

    Financing cash flow (187.6) (168.3) (136.7) (103.3) (136.4) EBIT Margin 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.2 6.3 Change in share capital 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Margin 5.8 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 Dividends paid (150.9) (137.2) (137.2) (137.2) (137.2) ROA 5.7 5.7 6.3 6.4 6.5 Net change in debt (36.7) (32.9) 0.5 33.9 0.8 ROE 7.6 7.5 8.3 8.6 8.9 Change in other LT liab. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Debt/Equity (X) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

    Net cash flow (59.8) (7.2) 12.7 30.9 37.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) Free cash flow 131.5 158.3 147.2 131.8 171.7 Int. coverage (X) 82.0 90.5 110.1 114.2 118.8

    Int. & ST debt coverage

    0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 Cashflow int. coverage (X) 99.6 133.1 153.1 144.3 148.2

    Cashflow int. & ST debt (x) 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 Current Ratio (X) 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Quick Ratio (X) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 Net cash (SGDm) (286.0) (311.7) (323.9) (354.2) (391.3) Per share data (SGD cts) EPS 50.9 49.1 54.3 56.5 59.1 CFPS 58.7 73.2 75.2 71.2 73.5 BVPS 655.0 653.7 656.2 659.3 663.3 SPS 870.2 844.4 859.6 901.4 932.4 EBITDA/Share 72.9 74.1 82.4 85.4 88.0 DPS 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0

    Source: Company, Maybank KE

  • 7 January 2014 Page 13 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    RESEARCH OFFICES REGIONAL

    WONG Chew Hann, CA Regional Head, Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]

    Alexander GARTHOFF Institutional Product Manager (852) 2268 0638 [email protected]

    ONG Seng Yeow Regional Head, Retail Research (65) 6432 1453 [email protected]

    ECONOMICS Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]

    Luz LORENZO Philippines (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]

    Tim LEELAHAPHAN Thailand (662) 658 1420 [email protected]

    JUNIMAN Chief Economist, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682 [email protected] Josua PARDEDE Economist / Industry Analyst, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29695 [email protected]

    MALAYSIA WONG CHEW HANN, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected] Strategy DESMOND CHNG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] Banking & Finance LIAW THONG JUNG (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] Oil & Gas Regional Shipping ONG CHEE TING, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] Plantations Regional MOHSHIN AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected] Aviation Regional Petrochem YIN SHAO YANG, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] Gaming Regional Media TAN CHI WEI, CFA (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] Power Telcos WONG WEI SUM, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] Property & REITs LEE YEN LING (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] Building Materials Glove producers

    CHAI LI SHIN (603) 2297 8684 [email protected] Plantation Construction & Infrastructure KANG CHUN EE (603) 2297 8675 [email protected] Consumer IVAN YAP (603) 2297 8612 [email protected] Automotive LEE Cheng Hooi, Regional Chartist (603) 2297 8694 [email protected] Tee Sze Chiah, Head of Retail Research (603) 2297 6858 [email protected]

    HONG KONG / CHINA Howard WONG Head of Research (852) 2268 0648 [email protected] Oil & Gas - Regional Alexander LATZER (852) 2268 0647 [email protected] Metals & Mining - Regional Alison FOK (852) 2268 0630 [email protected] Consumer Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633 [email protected] Consumer Karen KWAN (852) 2268 0640 [email protected] HK & China Property Osbert TANG, CFA (852) 2268 0800 [email protected] Transport & Industrials Philip TSE, CFA FRM (852) 2268 0643 [email protected] HK & China Property Simon QIAN, CFA (852) 2268 0634 [email protected] Telecom & Internet Steven CHAN (852) 2268 0645 [email protected] Banking & Financials Warren LAU (852) 2268 0644 [email protected] Technology Regional William YANG (852) 2268 0675 [email protected] Technology Regional

    INDIA Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected] Oil & Gas Automobile Cement Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected] Metal & Mining Capital goods Property Urmil SHAH (91) 22 6623 2606 [email protected] Technology Media

    SINGAPORE NG Wee Siang Head of Research (65) 6432 1467 [email protected] Banking & Finance Gregory YAP (65) 6432 1450 [email protected] SMID Caps Regional Technology & Manufacturing Telcos Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454 [email protected] Property Developers ONG Kian Lin (65) 6432 1470 [email protected] S-REITs James KOH (65) 6432 1431 [email protected] Consumer - Regional YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6432 1460 [email protected] Offshore & Marine Derrick HENG (65) 6432 1446 [email protected] Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation) Wei Bin (65) 6432 1455 [email protected] Commodity Logistics S-chips John CHEONG (65) 6432 1461 [email protected] Small & Mid Caps Healthcare

    INDONESIA Wilianto IE Head of Research (62) 21 2557 1125 [email protected] Strategy Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] Banking & Finance Aurellia SETIABUDI (62) 21 2953 0785 [email protected] Property Anthony YUNUS (62) 21 2557 1136 [email protected] Consumer Poultry Isnaputra ISKANDAR (62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected] Metals & Mining Cement Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected] Infrastructure Construction Transport Janni ASMAN (62) 21 2953 0784 [email protected] Cigarette Healthcare Retail Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 [email protected] Telcos Media

    PHILIPPINES Luz LORENZO Head of Research (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected] Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected] Utilities Conglomerates Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected] Consumer Media Cement Rommel RODRIGO (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] Conglomerates Property Ports/ Logistics Gaming Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 [email protected] Banks Construction Ramon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8845 [email protected] Mining

    THAILAND Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090 [email protected]

    Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected] Strategy Padon Vannarat (66) 2658 6300 ext 1450 [email protected] Strategy Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470 [email protected] Auto Conmat Contractor Steel Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected] Media Commerce Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected] Energy Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected] Property Woraphon WIROONSRI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 [email protected] Banking & Finance Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected] Transportation Small cap. Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 [email protected] Electronics

    Institutional Research

    Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected] Consumer / Materials

    Jesada TECHAHASDIN, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394 [email protected] Financial Services

    Kittisorn PRUITIPAT, CFA, FRM (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 [email protected] Real Estate Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393 [email protected] Services Sector

    VIETNAM Le Hong Lien, ACCA Head of Institutional Research (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8181 [email protected] Strategy Consumer Diversified Utilities Thai Quang Trung, CFA, Deputy Manager, Institutional Research (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8180 [email protected] Real Estate Construction Materials Truong Thanh Hang (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8085 [email protected] Consumer Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8082 [email protected] Oil & Gas

    Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen Head of Retail Research (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8081 [email protected] Food and Beverage Oil & Gas Sony Tra Mi (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8084 [email protected] Pharmaceutical Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8242 [email protected] Technology Utilities Construction Dang Thi Kim Thoa (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8083 [email protected] Consumer Nguyen Trung Hoa (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8088 [email protected] Steel Sugar Resources

  • 7 January 2014 Page 14 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each securitys price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdictions stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, MKE) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, Representatives) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as anticipate, believe, estimate, intend, plan, expect, forecast, predict and project and statements that an event or result may, will, can, should, could or might occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report. This report is prepared for the use of MKEs clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report. Malaysia Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Singapore This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (Maybank KERPL) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law. Thailand The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (MBKET) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. US This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (US) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (Maybank KESUSA), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. UK This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (Maybank KESL) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.

  • 7 January 2014 Page 15 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    DISCLOSURES Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (PTKES) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (KESI) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

    Disclosure of Interest Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 7 January 2014, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 7 January 2014, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.

    OTHERS Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

    Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.

    No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.

    Ong Seng Yeow | Executive Director, Maybank Kim Eng Research

    Definition of Ratings Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system:

    BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

    Applicability of Ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

    Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear): Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share

    NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders Funds EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax

  • 7 January 2014 Page 16 of 16

    Venture Corporation

    Malaysia Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194

    Singapore Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd 9 Temasek Boulevard #39-00 Suntec Tower 2 Singapore 038989 Tel: (65) 6336 9090 Fax: (65) 6339 6003

    London Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd 6/F, 20 St. Dunstans Hill London EC3R 8HY, UK Tel: (44) 20 7621 9298 Dealers Tel: (44) 20 7626 2828 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6674

    New York Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc 777 Third Avenue, 21st Floor New York, NY 10017, U.S.A. Tel: (212) 688 8886 Fax: (212) 688 3500

    Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888 Fax: (603) 2282 5136

    Hong Kong Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd Level 30, Three Pacific Place, 1 Queens Road East, Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2268 0800 Fax: (852) 2877 0104

    Indonesia PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities Plaza Bapindo Citibank Tower 17th Floor Jl Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55 Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

    Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188 Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189

    India Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd 2nd Floor, The International 16, Maharishi Karve Road, Churchgate Station, Mumbai City - 400 020, India Tel: (91).22.6623.2600 Fax: (91).22.6623.2604

    Philippines Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc. 17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue Makati City, Philippines 1200 Tel: (63) 2 849 8888 Fax: (63) 2 848 5738

    Thailand Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited 999/9 The Offices at Central World, 20th - 21st Floor, Rama 1 Road Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales) Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)

    Vietnam In association with Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC 1st Floor, 255 Tran Hung Dao St. District 1 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel : (84) 844 555 888 Fax : (84) 838 38 66 39

    Saudi Arabia In association with Anfaal Capital Villa 47, Tujjar Jeddah Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Street P.O. Box 126575 Jeddah 21352 Tel: (966) 2 6068686 Fax: (966) 26068787

    South Asia Sales Trading Kevin FOY [email protected] Tel: (65) 6336-5157 US Toll Free: 1-866-406-7447

    North Asia Sales Trading Alex TSUN [email protected] Tel: (852) 2268 0228 US Toll Free: 1 877 837 7635

    www.maybank-ke.com | www.maybank-keresearch.com