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Venezuela: once again, in turmoil.

I

I have lost count of the number of times I have written about Venezuela being in turmoil.As for now, it is something that we have learned to live with, and when violence gets out ofcontrol, you just try to find ways to evade the effects. Only, this time it seems it‘s

completely out of control for both parties: Government and Opposition.

To look at this situation is necessary to take it from the moment Mr. Maduro replaced,[although not formally], President Chavez once he left for treatment again to Cuba in

December the 8th

 of 2012. It was a very difficult situation in which the main argument forthe Opposition was the Constitution and the Government handling of the responsibility to

run office, which was not very clear given that the prognosis of the President’s healthcondition remained unknown. That of course led to an additional confrontation between

Government and Opposition, which gained momentum once the time for President Chavezto take the Oath for Office, January the 10th

  of 2013, came and according to the

Constitution, it had to be decided if his absence was a short or long-term one, that in thelatter would require the President of the National Assembly to assume and call for a new

 presidential election within 30 days. Nevertheless, the case was that thanks to a SupremeTribunal

1  decision, Mr Maduro not only was sworn but also was chosen Candidate, [as

President‘s Chavez televised will stated], for the upcoming April 14th

 election.

If there has been a critical episode in these 15 years of chavismo, the presidential electionsof 2013 were a highlight. There was very little hope for a positive outcome, the Opposition

failed in the October 7th of 2012 elections and optimism was not the case in the unexpected presidential bid. It would be a very short campaign and the recent decease of a strong figure

as Hugo Chavez, left no doubt it was going to be a lost effort to think of getting close tovictory, even with a candidate as Nicolas Maduro, who had been Foreign Minister for the

 past six years. That was quite enough to make anyone desist to take the challenge, therewere voices that clearly recommended Henrique Capriles, the Opposition‘s contender to

President Chavez, not to take a risk that would kill his political career. There was not muchtime to think about, and as expected, Capriles decided to challenge the chosen heir of

President Chavez.

The turnout was significant (around 80%), but Maduro won with less than 2% of differenceand against all odds, Capriles ended up with a better performance than the one expected,

even after loosing. There were some claims of fraud at the polling centers and the candidateexercised his right to dispute the results given the collected amount of evidence. The

decision from the Supreme Tribunal was not favorable, and it carried a fine for thecandidate, on the charge he disgraced the honor of the tribunal by introducing his petition.

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Those were not the only setbacks for Capriles, the most serious was from his own coalition,

that on the one side was demanding a tougher stand before the higher court and thegovernment, and on the other, his conviction that a bloodshed was not a price to pay, that

he was sure he won the election but government exercised all its power to break the will of

the people, and with that thought on mind, the way was to grow a bigger and more strongermajority, one that would not allow a doubt about its strength.

Of course, that led to some frustration, not only in the Opposition electorate, but also withinthe coalition known as the MUD (Table of Unity), that has its own differences and

antagonisms to deal with and were put aside because of the unexpected April 14th electionand several months later the Mayoral Elections on December 8

th  of 2013. The different

agendas were left to rest until the polls took place, but as soon as the results were known[considerably favorable to de Government], the feuds were let loose and without a single

election in the coming year, the different sides of the MUD started to play their game totake control of the Opposition, with harsh criticism towards the performance of the

coalition and the leadership of Capriles. Although there are several sides, the two most prominent are: one that favors a more defiant attitude towards the Government and the

other that privileges an expansion of the Opposition as an alternative, persuading those thatare frustrated with Maduro‘s management of the legacy inherited.

Before April 14th

  it was clear that Maduro was not Chavez, but they had to carry out his

 political will. Their major concern was, undoubtedly, if Maduro had the ability to dowhatever it was necessary to preserve that legacy. The problem was that during the

interregnum, Maduro showed himself, perhaps for the first time, considering he had beenserving for a long period as a Foreign Minister, during which he had little chance to get

exposed. The perspective was a very bothering one; he was definitively not Chavez, noteven close. The narrow and contested victory was a preview of what the ride was promising

to be.