VALE - Not a 'Buy' in the Short Term

7/30/2019 VALE - Not a 'Buy' in the Short Term

1/6

October 18, 2012 | Flash News

Please refer to page 4 of this report for important disclosures, analyst certifications and additional information. Ita BBA does and seeks to dobusiness with Companies covered in this research report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest thatcould affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the sole factor in making their inv estment decision.

Read this report in:

4 min: Full

Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. is the securities arm of Ita Unibanco Group. Ita BBA is aregistered mark used by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A.

Marcos Assumpo, [email protected]

Andr Pinheiro, [email protected]

STEEL & MINING TEAM

ValeBrazil | Market Perform

Not a Buy in the Short Term

More conservative short-term view on Vale = weak results + negative earnings revision + fair

valuation. We are downgrading Vale to market perform with a new target price of USD 21/ADR or

BRL 42/share. Our more conservative view is based on: i) weak short-term results given the recent

decline in iron ore prices and lower-than-expected volumes we estimate 3Q12 EBITDA to reach

USD 3.2 billion; ii) trimming our EBITDA estimates for 2012 to USD 17.7 billion (from USD 20 billion) and

for 2013 to USD 20.2 billion (from USD 23.4 billion) we expect consensus to follow suit; and iii) Vale is

trading at 6.4x EV/EBITDA 2013E, a fair valuation considering the increased volatility in iron ore prices.

The main reasons behind our more-negative short-term view on Vales stock price are:

Weak 3Q12 results: we expect Vales recurring EBITDA to reach USD 3.2 billion (-42% QoQ) on

lower iron ore prices, soft iron ore volumes and weak base-metals performance (lower sequential

copper and nickel volumes on seasonally weaker demand);

Negative earnings revision: We revised our model to a more cautious commodity outlook for 2013:

i) lower iron ore fines prices (USD 87/ton vs. USD 92/ton previously); ii) lower iron ore volumes (315

million tons vs. 320 million tons previously) and iii) reduced copper volumes (320k tons vs. 360k tons

previously). Weak 3Q12 results could trigger investors to revise downwards Vales earnings;

Limited short-term volume growth: Even though Vales main growth projects (Serra Sul and

Moatize) will likely add value to the company, they will not affect results materially before 2015;

Base-metals business continues to pressure short-term results: heavy past investments mainly

in the nickel business (VNC and Ona Puma) continued to negatively impact results through pre-

operational expenses and are adding small volumes to the company;

Dividends will likely decline in tandem with free-cash-flow generation: We estimate 2013

EBITDA to reach USD 4 billion, below the USD 6 billion distributed in 2012;

Regulatory environment remains risky: We do not expect Vale to solve its most important past

tax litigation (income tax on foreign subsidiaries worth USD 15 billion) in the short term;

Limited positive surprise on capex: We expect capex to total USD 18 billion in 2012 and USD 16

billion in 2013, as Vale will likely conclude projects under development and invest in priority projects.

That said, we see limited room for investors to be surprised with lower-than-expected 2013 capex;

Risks to our conservative view = China + global growth recovery + solution of tax issue . Our

cautious view on Vale could be wrong if: i) stronger-than-expected stimulus is thrown into the Chinese

economy, boosting steel and iron ore demand and prices; ii) a faster-than-expected recovery in the

global economy should occur, leading to stronger global steel consumption and iii) Vale is able to solve

its past tax litigations under favorable conditions, thus reducing regulatory risk.

Continue to prefer Vale over steels. Despite our more conservative near-term view on the stock, we

continue to prefer Vale over steels on: i) relatively attractive valuation and ii) lower leverage risk.

Estimates and Valuation

Years 2010a 2011a 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e

Net revenues (USD m) 45,293 58,990 44,274 48,506 50,496 52,040EBITDA (USD m) 26,116 35,272 17,661 20,185 21,997 23,332Net income (USD m) 17,264 22,885 8,861 9,981 10,730 11,424Net debt (USD m) 15,966 19,612 28,349 33,187 35,616 36,509EPS 3.4 4.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2EV/EBITDA 4.3 3.2 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.7

P/E 5.3 4.0 10.4 9.2 8.6 8.1FCF yield (%) -1.3 8.6 -3.7 -0.8 1.7 3.7DPS (USD) 0.6 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8Dividend yield (%) 3.3 13.0 6.5 4.3 4.1 4.3P/BV 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9

Source: Ita BBA

Ticker (ADR) VALE.P

Target Price (YE13) USD 21.0

Ticker (Local) VALE5

Target Price (YE13) BRL 42.0

Stock Data

Current price USD 17.9

Upside (YE13) % 17.3

52 Week high/low USD 25.73/15.53

Shares outstanding th 5,153,375

Market capitalization USD m 92,297

3-mth avg daily vol. USD m 144.6Performance (%) 1m 12m

Absolute -3.3 -20.9

Vs. SPX -2.5 -33.4

Company Performance

60

80

100

120

140

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

VALE.P Source: Ita BBA


2/6

Vale October 18, 2012

Ita BBA

2

Challenging ST Scenario, But We Like The Companys LT Strategy

We continue to like Vales asset base and long-term strategy. We acknowledge that Vale will face a

challenging scenario in the short-term given an expected deceleration in Chinese GDP and steel

demand growth coupled with a fragile global steel demand outlook. However, we continue to like Vales

high quality, long life and low cost reserve base (mainly in the iron ore business). We believe the

companys management is paving the way for the companys future growth, is prioritizing best returnprojects and is focused on returning value to shareholders. These expansion projects will likely yield

positive returns in the medium-term, but investors are unwilling to pay for those benefits in the short-term

given the present scenario of limited visibility and higher uncertainties. We also praise management

initiatives of streamlining capex, divesting from non-core activities and engaging in specific joint ventures

projects to reduce capex needs and accelerate growth in a challenging environment.

Model Update

New target price of USD21/VALE.P (BRL42/VALE5) = more conservative view on volumes and

realized prices. We fine-tuned our Vale model mainly to embed slightly lower Chinese commodity

demand growth and lower realized iron ore prices. The main changes to our model were: i) we inputed

Ita BBAs new macroeconomic assumptions, ii) we lowered Vale average realized iron ore prices (to

account for lower price premiums), iii) we reduced our 2012-14E iron ore volume growth (+30 milliontons vs. previous +40 million tons) and iv) we delayed nickel and copper project ramp-ups. As a result,

our 2012E and 2013E EBITDA estimates dropped to USD17.7 billion (-12%) and USD20.2 billion (-

14%), respectively, and we arrived at a new target price of USD21/VALE.P (BRL 42/VALE5).

Vale Old vs. New Estimates Vale - Ita BBA vs. Consensus

New Old % Chg New Old % Chg

Net Revenues 44,274 47,011 -5.8% 48,506 51,952 -6.6%

EBITDA 17,661 20,031 -11.8% 20,185 23,432 -13.9%

EBITDA Mg 39.9% 42.6% -2.7p.p. 41.6% 45.1% -3.5p.p.

Net Income 8,861 9,385 -5.6% 9,981 1 2,130 -17.7%

FV (USD/ADR) 21.0 24.0 -12.5%

(USD Million)2012E 2013E

Ita Mkt vs.Mkt Ita Mkt vs.Mkt

Net Revenues 44,274 46,455 -4.7% 48,506 50,711 -4.3%

EBITDA 17,661 20,516 -13.9% 20,185 23,668 -14.7%

EBITDA Mg 39.9% 44.2% -4.3p.p. 41.6% 46.7% -5.1p.p.

Net Income 8,861 12,299 -28.0% 9,981 12,046 -17.1%

FV (USD/ADR) 21.0 22.0 -4.5%

2012E 2013E(USD Million)

Source: Ita BBA Source: Bloomberg and Ita BBA

Updated on October 17, 2012


3/6


Ita BBA

3

Ita BBA Vale Estimates

Operating Data 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Volumes (ktons)

Iron Ore 299,148 300,000 315,000 330,000 355,000 367,000 375,000

Fines 257,287 255,000 270,000 280,000 300,000 312,000 320,000

Pellets 41,861 45,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 55,000 55,000

Nickel 252 245 320 340 360 372 381

Copper 302 260 320 380 460 499 524Realized Prices (USD/ton)

Iron Ore 144 100 93 86 79 77 79

Fines 136 93 87 81 74 71 74

Pellets 194 141 128 117 110 109 112

Nickel 22,698 17,500 17,700 18,000 18,000 18,308 18,658

Copper 8,434 7,950 7,800 7,300 6,600 6,713 6,841

Incom e Statement 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

FX Rate - (BRL/USD - EOP) 1.84 1.95 1.90 1.84 1.76 1.73 1.77

FX Rate - (BRL/USD - AVG) 1.68 1.92 1.92 1.87 1.80 1.75 1.75

Net Revenues (USD mn) 58,990 44,274 48,506 50,496 52,040 54,049 57,161

EBITDA (Incl. Div ) (USD mn) 35,272 17,661 20,185 21,997 23,332 24,577 25,706

EBITDA Margin (%) 59.8% 39.9% 41.6% 43.6% 44.8% 45.5% 45.0%

Net Income (USD mn) 22,885 8,861 9,981 10,730 11,424 11,830 12,328

Net Margin (%) 38.8% 20.0% 20.6% 21.2% 22.0% 21.9% 21.6%

Per Share Data 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Shares Outstanding (mn) 5,153 5,153 5,153 5,153 5,153 5,153 5,153

EPS 4.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

Cash Earnings 27,007 13,363 15,127 16,433 17,566 18,348 19,109

CEPS 5.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7

DPS 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

Dividend Yield (%) 13.0% 6.5% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.7%

FCF Yield (%) 8.6% -3.7% -0.8% 1.7% 3.7% 6.8% 7.6%

Effective Tax Rate (%) -19.7% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0%

Balance Sheet 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Total A ss ets 128,728 140,195 152,287 164,397 171,638 179,542 188,421

Total Liabilities 48,614 56,813 63,031 68,414 68,715 68,978 69,271

Minorities 2,399 2,568 2,759 2,963 3,181 3,406 3,641

Shareholder's Equity 77,715 80,814 86,497 93,021 99,742 107,158 115,508

Net PP&E 90,030 102,929 114,068 122,843 130,368 135,612 140,818

Total Debt 23,143 31,550 36,667 41,865 42,147 42,265 42,140

Cash 3,531 3,201 3,480 6,249 5,638 7,764 10,440

Net Debt 19,612 28,349 33,187 35,616 36,509 34,501 31,701

Cash Flow Statement 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

EBITDA (Incl. Div) 35,272 17,661 20,185 21,997 23,332 24,577 25,706

(-) Taxes -5,282 -2,819 -3,174 -3,409 -3,630 -3,755 -3,912

(-) CAPEX -18,252 -18,000 -16,286 -14,479 -13,667 -11,762 -11,987

(+/-) Working Capital -2,063 1,066 505 -297 -217 -295 -479(+/-) Others 0 600 0 0 0 0 0

(=) FCFF 9,675 -1,492 1,231 3,813 5,819 8,765 9,328

(+/-) Net Financial Results -1,747 -1,338 -1,952 -2,288 -2,431 -2,499 -2,337

(+/-) Debt Variation 0 8,500 5,000 5,000 0 0 0

(+/-) Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

(=) FCFE 7,928 5,670 4,279 6,524 3,388 6,266 6,991

Dividends/Int. on Equity Paid 12,000 6,000 4,000 3,755 3,998 4,141 4,315

Multiples & Yields 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Mkt Cap (USD mn) 92,297 92,297 92,297 92,297 92,297 92,297 92,297

EV (USD mn) 114,308 123,214 128,243 130,876 131,987 130,204 127,638

EV/EBITDA (x) 3.2 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.7 5.3 5.0

EV/EBITDA at PO (x) 3.7 7.9 7.1 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.6

P/E (x) 4.0 10.4 9.2 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.5

P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

P/CE (x) 3.4 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.8

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2

Net Debt/Total Capit. (%) 15.2% 20.2% 21.8% 21.7% 21.3% 19.2% 16.8%

Net Debt/Equity (%) 25.2% 35.1% 38.4% 38.3% 36.6% 32.2% 27.4% Source: Ita BBA


4/6


Ita BBA

4

DISCLAIMER

Ita BBA is a brand name of Ita Corretora de Valores S.A.

Ratings: Definitions, Dispersion and Banking Relationships

Ratings(1)

Definition(2)

Coverage(3)

Banking

Relationship(4)

OutperformThe analyst expects the stock to perform better thanmarket average.

55% 49%

Market PerformThe analyst expects the stock to perform in line withmarket average.

36% 31%

UnderperformThe analyst expects the stock to perform belowmarket average.

9% 8%

1. The ratings used herein (Outperform, Market Perform and Underperform) correspond approximately to Buy, Hold and Sell,respectively.

2. Ratings reflect the analysts assessment of the stock price perfo rmance in the medium term compared with marketaverage. Recommendations will remain valid until the analyst changes the rating, which may happen as a result of news orsimply due to a change in the stock price (there is no defined time horizon). Companies are grouped into industries,according to their similarities. The industries are: (i) Banking & Financial Services, (ii) Consumer Goods & Retail + Food &Beverage, (iii) Healthcare + Education, (iv) Steel & Mining + Pulp & Paper, (v) Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals + Agribusiness,(vi) Real Estate, (vii) Telecommunications, Media and Technology, (viii) Transportation, Manufacturing and Logistics, (ix)Utilities, and (x) Equity Strategy.

3. Percentage of companies covered by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. within this rating category.

4. Percentage of companies within this rating category, for which Ita Unibanco S.A. or any of its affiliated companiesprovided investment banking services over the last 12 (twelve) months, or which may be provided during the next 3 (three)months.

Third Party Disclosures

Companies Mentioned Ticker Recent PriceDisclosure Items

1 2 3 4 5 6

VALE VALE.P 17.9 X X X -

1Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies have managed or co-managed a public offer for the companiesanalyzed in this report in the last 12 (twelve) months, for which they received compensation.

2. Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies received compensation for the investment banking servicesprovided to the companies analyzed in this report in the last 12 (twelve) months, and expect to receive or intend to seek

compensation for such services to be provided to companies analyzed in this report in the next 3 (three) months.

3. Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies were acting as market makers for the companies analyzed inthis report at the time this report was issued.

4. Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies have acted as an underwriter of securities issued by thecompanies analyzed in this report within the last 5 (five) years.

5. Ita Corretora S.A. and/or its affiliated companies, and funds, portfolios and investment clubs managed by Ita Corretorade Valores S.A. beneficially own, directly or indirectly, 1% (one percent) or more of any class of common shares issued bythe companies analyzed in this report as of the end of last month.

6. The analyzed issuer(s) have a relevant interest in companies of the Ita Unibanco Group.

VALE

02-jun

24-jan

01-abr

12-set

12-set

28-nov

27-jul

30-ago

24242424242424242424242424242424242424242424242424242424

000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

mai/10 ago/10 nov/10 fev/11 mai/11 ago/11 nov/11 fev/12 mai/12 ago/12

U nde rpe rf orm Mar ke t Pe rf or m Ou tp erf or m U R S toc k Pr ice Fa ir Va lu e

Source: Ita BBA


5/6


Ita BBA

5

Relevant Information1. This report has been produced by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A (Ita BBA), a subsidiary of Ita Unibanco S.A., regulated by the

Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM), and distributed by Ita BBA or one of its affiliates (altogether, Ita UnibancoGroup). Ita BBA is the brand name used by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A., by its affiliates or by other companies of the I ta UnibancoGroup.

2. This report aims at providing information only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or asolicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. Theinformation herein is believed to be reliable as of the date on which this report was issued and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable. Ita Unibanco Group does not make any express or implied representation or warranty as to the completeness,

reliability or accuracy of such information, nor does this report intend to be a complete statement or summary of the investmentstrategies, markets or developments referred to herein. Opinions, estimates, and projections expressed herein constitute the current

judgment of the analyst responsible for the substance of this report as of the date on which it was issued and are, therefore, subject tochange without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments are indicative only and subject to change without notice. ItaUnibanco Group has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report and inform the reader accordingly, except when terminatingcoverage of the issuer of the securities discussed in this report.

3. The analyst responsible for the production of this report, whose name is highlighted in bold, hereby certifies that the viewsexpressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal views and opinions about any and all of the subjectissuers or securities and were prepared independently and autonomously, including from Ita BBA, Banco Ita BBA S.A andother group companies. Because personal views of analysts may differ from one another, Ita BBA, its subsidiaries andaffiliates may have issued or may issue other reports that are inconsistent with, and/or reach different conclusions from, theinformation presented herein. The analyst responsible for the production of this report is not registered and/or qualified as aresearch analyst with the NYSE or FINRA and is not associated with Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. and, therefore, may not besubject to Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities heldby a research analyst account.

4. An analysts compensation is determined based upon the total revenues of Ita BBA, a portion of which is generated through investmentbanking activities. Like all employees of Ita BBA, its subsidiaries and affiliates, analysts receive compensation that is linked to globalearnings. Therefore, analysts compensation can be considered to be indirectly related to this report. However, the analyst responsiblefor the content of this report hereby certifies that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to anyspecific recommendation or opinion herein or linked to the pricing of any of the securities discussed herein. Ita Unibanco Group and thefunds, portfolios and securities investment clubs managed by Ita Unibanco Group may have a direct or indirect stake equal to no morethan 1% (one percent) of the capital stock of the companies, and may have been involved in the acquisition, sale or trading of suchshares in the market.

5. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report does not take into account theinvestment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Investors wishing to purchase or o therwise deal inthe securities covered in this report should obtain relevant documents relating to the financial instruments and exchanges and confirmtheir contents. Investors should obtain independent financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making aninvestment decision based on the information herein. Final decision on investments must be made by each investor considering variousrisks, fees and commissions. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency, change s inexchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from the financial instrument, and the reader of thisreport assumes all foreign exchange risks. Income from financial instruments may vary, and therefore their price or value may rise or fall,either directly or indirectly. Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results, and no representation or warranty, express orimplied, is made herein regarding future performance. Ita Unibanco Group does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct orconsequential loss arising from the use of this report or its content, and the investor using this report undertakes to irrevocably exemptthe Ita Unibanco Group from any claims, complaints and/or demands.

6. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior writtenconsent of Ita BBA. Additional information on the financial instruments discussed in this report is available upon request.

7. As required by the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission rules, the analysts responsible for this report indicate potential conflictsituations in the table below of Relevant Information.

Additional Note to reports distributed in: (i) U.K. and Europe: Itau BBA UK Securities Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial

Services Authority (FSA), is distributing this report to investors who are Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients, pursuant to FSA rulesand regulations. If you do not, or cease to fall within the definition of Eligible Counterparty or Professional Client, you should not rely upon theinformation contained herein and should notify Itau BBA UK Securities Limited immediately. The information herein does not apply to, andshould not be relied upon by retail customers. Investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report shouldcontact Itau BBA UK Securities Limited at Level 20 The Broadgate Tower, 20 Primrose Street, London EC2A 2EW, UK; (ii) U.S.A: Itau BBAUSA Securities, Inc., a FINRA/SIPC member firm, is distributing this report and accepts responsibility for the content of this report. Any USinvestor receiving this report and wishing to effect any transaction in any security discussed herein should do so with Itau BBA USA Securities,Inc. at 767 Fifth Avenue, 50th Floor, New York, NY 10153; (iii) Asia: This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Ita Asia Securities Limited,which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activity. Ita AsiaSecurities Limited accepts all regulatory responsibility for the content of this report. In Hong Kong, any investors wishing to purchase orotherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact Ita Asia Securities Limited at 29th Floor, Two IFC, 8 Finance Street Central, Hong Kong; (iv) Japan: This report is distributed in Japan by Ita Asia Securities Limited Tokyo Branch, Registration Number(FIEO) 2154, Director, Kanto Local Finance Bureau, Association: Japan Securities Dealers Association; (v) Middle East: This report isdistributed by Ita Middle East Limited. Related financial products or services are only available to wholesale clients with liquid assets of over$1 million and who have sufficient financial experience and understanding to participate in financial markets in a wholesale jurisdiction. Theinformation herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by retail customers. Ita Middle East Limited is regulated by the DubaiFinancial Services Authority (DFSA). In the Middle East, any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in thisreport should contact Ita Middle East Limited, at Al Fattan Currency House, Suite 305, Level 3, DIFC, PO Box 482034, Dubai, United ArabEmirates; (vi) Brazil: Ita Corretora de Valores S.A., a subsidiary of Ita Unibanco S.A authorized by the Central Bank of Brazil and approvedby the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil, is distributing this report. If necessary, contact the Client Service Center: 4004-3131*(capital and metropolitan areas) or 0800-722-3131 (other locations) during business hours, from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m., Brasilia time. If you wish tore-evaluate the suggested solution, after utilizing such channels, please call Itas Corporate Complaints Office: 0800-570-0011 (on business

days from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m., Brasilia time) or write to Caixa Postal 67.600, So Paulo-SP, CEP 03162-971.

* Cost of a local call.

Relevant Information Analysts

AnalystsDisclosure Items

1 2 3 4 5

Marcos Assumpo X X X XAndr Pinheiro X X X X

1. The investment analysts involved in the preparation of this report are related to an individual who works for the issuerobject of this analysis report. The nature of this relationship is ....

2. The investment analysts, their spouses or companions, have a direct or indirect stake, in their names, in the capital stockand/or other securities issued by the companies object of their analysis.

3. The Investment analysts, their spouses or companions, are directly or indirectly involved in the purchase, sale, disposal ortrading of securities that are the object of this report.

4. The investment analysts, their spouses or companions, have a direct or indirect financial interest in the issuing companyof the securities analyzed in this report.

5. The investment analysts, their spouses or companions, deal with shares of mutual funds which concentrate theirinvestments in the analyzed company or in the companys industry, or in which they can directly or indirectly influ ence

their management or administration


6/6

Christian Egan - Global Head of Equities & ETD

ResearchCarlos Constantini, CNPI - Head +55-11-3073-3001 [email protected]

Equity Strategy Oil, Gas & PetrochemicalsCarlos Constantini, CNPI - Head +55-11-3073-3001 carl [email protected] Paula Kov arsky, CNPI +55-11-3073-3027 paula.kov [email protected]

Susana Salaru, CNPI +55-11-3073-3009 [email protected] Diego Mendes, CNPI +55-11-3073-3029 [email protected]

Florian Tanzer (LatAm) +55-11-3073-3025 [email protected]

Pedro Maia, CNPI +55-11-3073-3065 [email protected] Real EstateDav id Lawant, CNPI + 55-11-3073-3037 dav id.l awant@i taubba.com

Argentina Research Vi vi an Salomon, Mexico & Colombia +52-55-5262-0672 v iv [email protected] Cavanagh, CFA +54-11-5273-3593 [email protected] Enrico Trotta, CNPI +55-11-3073-3064 [email protected]

Nicols Chialva, CFA +54-11-5273-3503 [email protected]

Steel & Mining + Pulp & PaperChile Research Marcos Assumpo, CFA +55-11-3073-3021 [email protected]

Barbara Angerstein +56-2-834-6297 [email protected] Andr Pinheiro, CNPI +55-11-3073-3028 [email protected] Fingeret +56-2-834-6295 [email protected]

Telecommunications, Media & TechnologyAgribusiness Gregorio Tomassi, Mexico +52-55-5262-0675 [email protected] ov ana Araj o, CNPI +55-11-3073-3036 gi ov ana.arauj o@ itaubba.com Susana Sal aru, CNPI + 55-11-3073-3009 susana.sal aru@i taubba.com

Antonio Barreto, CNPI +55-11-3073-3060 [email protected] Ricardo Cavanagh, CFA, Argentina +54-11-5273-3593 [email protected]

Gustavo Fingeret, Chile +56-2-834-6295 [email protected]

Banking & Financial Services Regina Longo Sanchez, CNPI +55-11-3073-3042 [email protected] Capital Goods + Transportation & LogisticThiago Bovolenta Batista, CFA +55-11-3073-3043 [email protected] Renata Faber, CNPI +55-11-3073-3017 [email protected]

Alexandre Spada, CFA +55-11-3073-3004 [email protected] Thais Cascello +55-11-3073-3019 [email protected]

Nicols Chialv a, CFA, Argentina & Chile +54-11-5273-3503 ni colas.chialv [email protected]

UtilitiesConsumer Goods & Retail Marcos Severine , C NPI +55-11-3073-3011 marcos. severine@i taubba.comJoaquin Ley, Mexico +52-55-5262-0676 [email protected] Mariana Coelho, CNPI +55-11-3073-3024 [email protected]

Juliana Rozenbaum, CFA +55-11-3073-3035 jul [email protected]

Barbara Angerstein, Chile +56-2-834-6297 [email protected] EconomicsVitor Paschoal +55-11-3073-3039 [email protected] Guilherme da Nobrega, CNPI - Head +55-11-3708-2715 [email protected]

Paloma Campos, Mexico +52-55-5262-0677 [email protected] Mauricio Oreng +55-11-3708-2807 [email protected]

Luiz Gustavo Cherman +55-11-3708-2713 [email protected]

Food & BeverageAlexandre Miguel, CFA +55-11-3073-3020 [email protected] Retail StrategyRenato Salomone, CNPI , Mexico +52-55-5262-0674 [email protected] Lucas Tambellini , CNPI +55 11 3073-3023 [email protected]

Felipe Cruz, CNPI +55-11-3073-3007 [email protected] Marcello Rossi, CNPI +55-11-3073-3006 [email protected]

Fbio Perina, CNPI +55-11-3073-3431 [email protected]

Healthcare + Education Ricardo Guntovitch, CNPI +55-11-3073-3066 [email protected] Macruz, CNPI +55-11-3073-3034 [email protected]

Equity Sales & Trading

Latin America North AmericaSales - Latin America Sales - North AmericaCarlos Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 [email protected] Adam Cherry - Head +1-212-710-6766 [email protected]

Mrcia Sadzevicius +55-11-3073-3330 [email protected] Kahlil Adam, CFA +1-212-710-6767 [email protected]

Rodrigo Pace +55-11-3073-3330 [email protected] Flavia Stingelin, CFA +1-212-710-6768 [email protected]

Jos Henrique Sapag Arvelos +55 11 3073-3330 [email protected] Carina Cassab Carreira +1-212-710-6790 [email protected]

Carlos Carvalho Lima (Macro) +55-11-3073-3330 [email protected]

Europe, Middle East & AsiaSales Trading - Brazil Sales - EuropeCarlos Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 [email protected] Mark Fenton - Head +44-20-7663-7845 [email protected]

Alec Cunningham +55-11-3073-3310 [email protected] Aneli Gonzalez, CFA +44-20-7663-7845 [email protected]

Aureo Bernardo +55-11-3073-3330 [email protected] Pedro Villa +44-20-7663-7845 [email protected]

Pedro H. Rocha Saum a + 55 11 3073-3330 pedro.saum a@ itaubba.com Sales - JapanCarlos Faria +55-11-3073-3310 [email protected] Masafumi Nishimura +813-3539-3856 [email protected]

Sales - Hong KongTrading - Brazil Caio Galvo +852-3657-2398 [email protected] Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 [email protected] Sales Trading - North AmericaCristiano Soares +55-11-3073-3330 [email protected] Kev in Hard - Head +1-212-710-6780 kev [email protected]

Thiem Hauenschild +55-11-3073-3310 [email protected] Eric Krall +1-212-710-6780 [email protected]

Bruno Campos +55-11-3073-3310 [email protected] Fernando Lasalvia +1-212-710-6780 [email protected]

Pedro Feres +55-11-3073-3149 [email protected] James Tallarico +1-212-710-6780 [email protected]

Brad Marra +1-212-710-6780 [email protected]

Futures, Derivatives & Stock Lending

Carlos Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 [email protected] CommoditiesRoberto Simonsen +55-11-3073-3657 [email protected]

Futures Desk Igor Petric +55-11-3073-3657 [email protected] Barcellos - Head +55-11-3073-3320 [email protected] DerivativesFabio Herdeiro +55-11-3073-3320 [email protected] Fabiano V. Romano - Head +55-11-3073-3310 [email protected]

Alan Eira +55-11-3073-3350 [email protected] Rafael Americo +55-11-3073-3310 [email protected]

Alexandre Rizzo +55-11-3073-3350 [email protected] Marcio Caires +55-11-3073-3310 [email protected]

Celso Azem +55-11-3073-3350 [email protected] Vinicius Alves de Pinho +55-11-3073-3310 [email protected]

Jos Dezene +55-11-3073-3350 [email protected] FX Spot Thierry Decoene +55-11-3073-3320 [email protected] Manoel Gimenez +55-11-3073-3340 [email protected]

Hernan Livore +55-11-3073-3320 [email protected] Haroldo Vasconcellos +55-11-3073-3340 [email protected]

Bruno Giusti +55-11-3073-3320 [email protected] Stock Lending Guilherme Michetti +55-11-3073-3320 [email protected] Joo Victor Caccese +55-11-3073-3211 [email protected]

Leandro Muniz +55-11-3073-3211 [email protected]

Private Banking Desk

Carlos Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 [email protected]

Private Banking Sales - High Private Banking Sales - SpecialFelipe Beltrami - Head +55 11 3073-3110 [email protected] Marcelo Ferri - Head +55 11 3073-3110 [email protected]

Caio Felipe Zanardo Val +55 11 3073-3292 [email protected] Guilherme Rudge Simes +55-11-3073-3150 [email protected]

Marco Antnio Gomes +55 11 3073-3148 [email protected] Patrick Kalim +55-11-3073-3145 [email protected]

Natlia Mnaco +55 11 3073-3297 [email protected] Ricardo Guntovitch +55-11-3073-3149 [email protected]

Ricardo Julio Costa +55 11 3073-3297 [email protected]

Private Banking Sales - UltraSergio Fonseca Rosa - Head +55 11 3073-3110 [email protected]

Edgard Claussen Vilela +55 11 3073-3291 [email protected]

Robinson Minetto +55 11 3073-3290 [email protected]

Frederico P. Bernardes +55 11 3073-3290 [email protected]

SO PAULO NEW YORK LONDONIta Corretora de Valores S.A Itau BBA USA Securities Inc. Itau BBA UK Securities LimitedAv. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 3400 - 10 Andar 767 Fifth Avenue, 50th Floor The Broadgate Tower

So Paulo, SP, Brazil, 04538-132 New York, NY 10153 20th Floor - 20 Primrose StreetLondon EC2A 2EW

HONG KONG TOKYO DUBAIItau Asia Securities Limited Itau Asia Securities Limited Tokyo Branch Itau Middle East LimitedRegulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong NBF Hibiya Bldg. 12F Al Fattan Currency House, Level 3

29/F, Two International Finance Centre 1-1-7 Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku Dubai International Financial Centre (or DIFC)

8 Finance Street - Central, Hong Kong Tokyo, 100-0011, Japan PO Box 482 034

Itas Complaints Officer (Ouvidoria Corporativa Ita) may be contacted at 0800 570 0011 (calls from Brazil), on business days, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. (So Paulo, Brazil time) or P.O. BO X 67.600, Zip Code 03162-971.

The information herein is believed to be reliable but Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Banco Ita S.A. may have a position from time to time. Past performance is not

indicative of future results.

This material is not intended as an off er or solicitation for purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This report is prepared by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and distributed in the United States by Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc., and Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. accepts responsibility for its c ontents

accordingly. Any US persons receiving this research and wishing to effect transact ions in any security disc ussed herein should do so only with Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. Analysts who are not CNPI only provide the team with technical support, not issuing personal opinions.

Equities

Ita Securities' Global Offices

Documents

VALE - Not a 'Buy' in the Short Term