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Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay [email protected] University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June 2010

Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay [email protected] University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

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Page 1: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Using the FRS to measure material deprivation

in families with children

Stephen McKay

[email protected]

University of Birmingham

FRS User Group

10 June 2010

Page 2: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Measuring deprivation

• Indirect, Income-based measures– HBAI, poverty series

• Direct measures, including indicators of material deprivation– Included on FRS since 2004/05

Recent policy focus => interest in non-financial measures, and the situation of the very poorest?

Page 3: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Change in child deprivation (HBAI)

Page 4: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June
Page 5: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Deprivation indicators

• Townsend (1979), survey in 1968-69– Critique by Piachaud (1981)

• Breadline Britain surveys, and related studies– 1983; 1990; 1999; & 2002-3 in NI– Have this OR don’t have & don’t want OR

don’t have and cannot afford it

• Incorporation as a DWP measure for child poverty (e.g. in Child Poverty Act 2010).

Page 6: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Week’s holiday away from home: trends over time

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Townsend1968-69

PSE -1999 PSE -NI,2002-3

DWP 04-05 DWP 07-08

Adult

Child

Page 7: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Selection of questions for FRS

• 1999 PSE Study provided information on a very wide range of indicators (Gordon et al 2000)

• Study in 2003 identified a shorter set that could do most (~92%) of the same job – Set of 11 adult/family questions– Set of 10 child-focused questions

• Both sets included in DWP material deprivation measure

– Question on arrears on various commitments• Not part of the DWP measure

• Questions recently being revised (5 year time horizon)

Page 8: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

DWP approach

• Merging of adult and child data into a single index

• Summed according to prevalence (more weight to items that more people have) rather than actual number lacked– Weights now change each year, originally

fixed at baseline year

• A threshold set as indicating deprivation (score of 25 on a 0-100 scale)

Page 9: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

FRS data structure – deprivation questions are at ‘benunit’ level

Household [SERNUM]

‘Family’ [SERNUM. BENUNIT]

‘Family’ [SERNUM. BENUNIT]

‘Adult’ [SERNUM. BENUNIT, PERSON]

‘Child’ [SERNUM. BENUNIT, PERSON]

‘Job’ [SERNUM. BENUNIT, PERSON, JOBTYPE]

So, results can be for households, families or individuals (or adults or children). Many other files for pensions, housing: N=26 files.

+

Page 10: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Number of items cannot afford

42

128 8 7 6 5

8

59

21

105 2 1 1 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

None 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+

Adults

Children

Page 11: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Adults deprived ‘before’ children (number of family units)

Children not deprived

Children lacking 2+

things

Adults not deprived

4.4m 0.14m

Adults lacking 3+ things

1.46m 1.36m

Page 12: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Deepening definition of material deprivation among families – lone parenthood

7

14.2

24.9

38.2

44.5

53.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 1,2 3,4 5,6 7,8,9 10+

N items cannot afford

Lone parent families

Page 13: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Deepening definition of material deprivation among families – DDA disability

9.8

15.217.2

23.1

29.2

34.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1,2 3,4 5,6 7,8,9 10+

N items cannot afford

Has a DDA disability

Page 14: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Deepening deprivation – number of children

33 34 33 34 31 29

48 46 43 38 37 35

15 16 1720 21

21

4 5 9 12 13 18

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

0 1,2 3,4 5,6 7,8,9 10+

N items cannot afford

4+

3

2

1

Page 15: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Other significant differences

• High risks of deprivatoin– Workless or unemployed– Child with a health problem (maybe partly

reflecting larger families)– Living in London, West Midlands, North-West– Not married

• Strong link to arrears on household commitments

Page 16: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Logits on most deprived – selected coefficients (odds ratios), all p<0.01

Worst 30% Worst 20% Worst 10%4+ child (cf 2) 2.8 2.6 2.3Workless (cf FT emp)

3.4 3.9 5.0

Unemployed 6.5 6.7 8.5

Pa, Ba 4.1 3.5 4.2

DDA 2.2 2.1 1.9

Pseudo-R2 0.32 0.30 0.26

Page 17: Using the FRS to measure material deprivation in families with children Stephen McKay s.d.mckay@bham.ac.uk University of Birmingham FRS User Group 10 June

Some conclusions

• Excellent source for tracking material deprivation among families– Time series since 2004-05, other studies tend

to be ad hoc, or fewer indicators (BHPS)– Limited exploitation of child vs adult

measures, and of the arrears indicators– Good starting sample sizes

• Possible to focus in on the most deprived, or look at a wider group, and to combine with income