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Using GRACE to estimate changes in land water storage: present limitations
and future potential
John Wahr, Sean Swenson, Isabella VelicognaUniversity of Colorado
GRACELaunched March, 2002. A NASA/DLR mission. Managed by U Texas,
JPL, and GFZ. Anticipated lifetime: 8-9 years.
Objective: map out the gravity field to high accuracy every month
Time variable gravity: the general idea
•Use GRACE to map the Earth’s gravity field at ~monthly time intervals. These fields are provided to users.•Remove the mean, to obtain time-variations in gravity. •Use the results to solve for changes in mass at the Earth’s surface:
in the oceans, the polar ice sheets, and the water stored on land.
40 fields ~monthly fields, between April, 2002 and Feb, 2006, are now available.
A fundamental limitation of time-variable gravity:
The mass results have no vertical resolution.
Implications: (1) can’t distinguish between water on the surface or in the ground.
(2) can’t distinguish between land water storage, and mass variability in the atmosphere or in the underlying solid Earth.
The atmosphere: ECMWF meteorological fields are used to remove atmospheric contributions before constructing gravity fields.
The solid Earth: post-glacial-rebound causes secular gravity signals that must be modeled and removed by the user.
A mission-dependent limitation
The mass results must be averaged over several hundred km or more,
to be accurate.
Annual Mass Cycle From GRACESmoothed using 750-km averaging radius.
Cosine is max on Jan 1; Sine is max on April 1.
Examples of water storage in specific regions
Besides using finding smoothed estimates of water storage, you can also find water storage in specific geographic regions (river basins, for example).
The Mass Balance Equation
• Rate of water storage change = precip –evapotranspiration – runoff• dS/dt = P – ET – R
Possible Applications:
1. P - ET = dS/dt (S from GRACE) + R (from river discharge)
2. R = P - ET - dS/dt
Antarctic Mass Variation From GRACE
__ GRACE - PGR
Trend -152+/-80 km3/yr ~0.4+/-0.2 mm/yr sea level rise
The Future
• GRACE lifetime expected to be 8-9 years.
• GOCE (an ESA satellite gradiometer) will launch in 2007.
Will provide excellent results at short wavelengths.
Not designed to rival GRACE for time-variable studies.
• NASA is considering a GRACE follow-on mission.
Has the potential of obtaining mass variability down to scales of ~100 km.