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Using ArcGIS for SpatialUsing ArcGIS for SpatialUsing ArcGIS for Spatial Using ArcGIS for Spatial Risk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk Assessment
Chris Stach raChris Stach raChris StachuraChris StachuraBP BP –– US Pipelines & LogisticsUS Pipelines & Logistics
Ron BrushRon BrushNew Century SoftwareNew Century Software
US Pipeline NetworkUS Pipeline NetworkUS Pipeline NetworkUS Pipeline Network
BP Pipeline System OverviewBP Pipeline System Overview
<Map>
BP System Overview (Cont’d)BP System Overview (Cont’d)y ( )y ( )
• The business unit operates and maintains over 9000 miles of onshore and offshore pipelines.
• Employs more than 2000 people throughout the country. • Pipeline network transports approximately 2.5 million barrels/day of p p pp y y
oil, refined products, natural gas liquids, natural gas, carbon dioxide and chemicals.
• Located primarily in the Midwest, Gulf Coast, West Coast and Gulf p y , ,of Mexico regions.
• Terminal facilities consist of 70 light oil terminals located in 38 states.
• Terminals are supported by a fleet of over 500 transport trucks that deliver refined product daily.
Key Business Drivers for Risk AssessmentKey Business Drivers for Risk Assessmentyy
• Assure pipeline safety, integrity and reliable operation p p y g y p– Identify unacceptable risk conditions along pipeline
• Compliance with Federal and State regulations C li ith li i d t d d• Compliance with company policies and standards
• Establish priority – Risk ranking of pipeline segments for inspection andRisk ranking of pipeline segments for inspection and
repair• Provide for better allocation of resources
Enable the development of a multi year schedule and– Enable the development of a multi year schedule and budget for pipeline assessments
Pipeline Integrity Management RulePipeline Integrity Management Rulep g y gp g y g
– Enacted by Congress in 2001 with oversight by S ( S fPHMSA (Pipeline Hazardous Materials Safety
Authority).– Requires operators to develop, execute and maintain q p p,
a comprehensive Integrity Management Plan for all regulated lines.
– Identify pipeline segments that have potential toIdentify pipeline segments that have potential to impact High Consequence Areas (HCA).
– Identify pipeline segments of higher risk and the subsequent factors driving those riskssubsequent factors driving those risks
– Develop a plan to reduce those risks.
Examples of HCA LocationsExamples of HCA LocationsExamples of HCA LocationsExamples of HCA Locations
Flood Hazard ExampleFlood Hazard ExampleFlood Hazard ExampleFlood Hazard Example
Spill Impact AnalysisSpill Impact Analysis
Hurricane Rita ResponseHurricane Rita Response
ProcessProcessCapture
RequiredData
DefineRequirements
For Risk
DesignRisk
Model
ExecuteRisk
ModelDataFor RiskAssessment
Model Model
Processing:- Retrieve DataInput from: Risk- Applies the defaults- Dynamically Segment
CalculateResults
CreateOutput
- SME’s- Existing models- Industry Practice
RiskEquationsTabular
DataGeospatial
Data
E t M d l
-Executes the equations Risk ModelData Model
Execute Model
Risk Profile ReviewRisk Profile ReviewRisk Profile ReviewRisk Profile Review
Total Risk
Lik lih d f C fLikelihood ofFailure
Consequence ofFailure
ExternalCorrosion
GroundMovement
InternalCorrosion
SystemOperationsThird Party Other
FactorsDesign andMaterials
Impact onPopulation
Impact onBusiness
Impact onEnvironment PopulationBusinessEnvironment
Risk Formula
Likelihood of Failure Consequence of Failure Risk of Failurex =Risk (LOF) (COF) (ROF)x
pipeline specs. (diameter, wall thickness grade seam girth
product type rupture volume loss
Formula
Attributesthickness, grade, seam, girth weld, coating)installation dateoperating pressureflow rate
pdispersion potentialpopulation impact potentialenvironmental impact potential
flow rateproduct typepipe spansleak historyCP historyCP historyOne Call Effectivenesslast internal inspection datelast hydrotest datenatural hazard potentialnatural hazard potential (earthquake, flood, landslide, hurricane)
Spatial Risk AnalysisSpatial Risk Analysisp yp y
D t tiD t tiDemonstrationDemonstration
Dynamic SegmentationDynamic SegmentationC tC tConceptConcept
.218Wall Thk. .218.325
52000 60000 52000Grade
FBECoating CTE
Yes No YesHCA
>100’ 50-100’ <50’ >100’50-100’
24-36” 18-24” 36-48” 36-48”24-36”
<5One Call <55 10 10 20
Road Proximity
Depth of Cover
<5One Call <55-10 10-20
1. Slice the data based on all
Concept of Dynamic Segmentation
based on all attribute changes.
.218Wall Thk. .218.325
52000 60000 52000Grade
FBECoating CTE
Yes No YesHCA
>100’ 50-100’Road Proximity <50’ >100’50-100’
24-36” 18-24”Depth of Cover 36-48” 36-48”24-36”
<5One Call <55-10 10-20
Concept of Dynamic Segmentation
.218Wall Thk. .218.325
52000 60000 52000Grade
8Coating 5
7 0 7HCA
1 4 7 141 4Road Proximity 7 14
3 2Depth of Cover 4 43
1One Call 12 31One Call 12 3
2. Assign numeric
3. Apply risk formulas to 2. Assign numeric
values for attributes.
calculate result
Risk Result
Related Business UsesRelated Business UsesRelated Business UsesRelated Business Uses
• Insurance Risk AssessmentInsurance Risk Assessment• New Construction
R d R il d Fib C bl Utiliti– Roads, Railroads, Fiber Cable, Utilities• Real Estate Site Selection
– Road Segmentation– Address ranges with score
SummarySummarySummarySummary
• Spatial risk assessment techniques areSpatial risk assessment techniques are used in the pipeline industry
• GIS data is very useful for risk assessment• GIS data is very useful for risk assessment• Demonstrated examples
– Multiple data sources – tabular & spatial– User-defined risk model– Output – map, tabular, chart, etc.
• Technique can be applied in other industriesq pp
Using ArcGIS for SpatialUsing ArcGIS for SpatialUsing ArcGIS for Spatial Using ArcGIS for Spatial Risk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk Assessment
Chris StachuraChris StachuraChris StachuraChris StachuraBP North AmericaBP North America
[email protected]@bp.com
Ron BrushRon BrushNew Century SoftwareNew Century Software
[email protected]@newcenturysoftware.com
