Using “Alternative Futures” to Assist Landscape ... · • Precipitation shifts can affect species phenology • Sea level rise can dramatically reduce conservation acreage Implications

Using “Alternative Futures” to Assist Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

Steve Traxler, FWS Michael Flaxman, MIT

Presentation to GEERJuly, 2010

2

MIT Research Team

Dr. Michael FlaxmanDr. Juan Carlos Vargas

Christopher Horne Stephen Lloyd Vanessa Ng

Other Primary MIT Contributors:• Olivier Barreteau• Holly Moeller

• Allison Lassiter• Aaron Thom• Linda Ciesielski

• Gates Gooding• Kelsie Baker

3

MIT Everglades Project Overview

•Research initiative developed by MIT and sponsored by FWS and USGS.

• Simulates the possible effects of climate change and population growth under different planning trajectories in South-Central Florida.

• Aims to identify the possible effects of a set of future trajectories of change on strategic habitat conservation (SHC) initiatives.

4

Overview

What’s the Planning Problem?

What is Scenario Planning and Alternative Futures Planning?

What has the MIT Alternative Futures Project for Southern Florida Produced?

What Next Steps are Needed?

Why Might “Alt Futures Planning” be Appropriate for LCC Conservation Planning?

5

The Major Challenges• Technical/Scientific

– Generating solid information at relevant scales

– Integrating across science project/disciplines

• Planning Process/Institutional Aspects– Accounting for

dynamic spatial processes with significant uncertainties in standard planning

– Integrating Fast-Moving Science into StandardDecision-making

6

Drivers of Change Transcend Management Geographies

1. Current institutions were not designed to deal with rapid population or ecological change

2. Land / water / transportation / conservation currently managed by hundreds of organizations across So. Florida

3. Multiple Agencies, jurisdictions are not going away

4. We must develop effective ways of planning despitethese barriers

Area: 19.3 Million Acres

Protected: 23 Protected Areas

People: 15.3 Million Inhabitants

7

The Downscaling Challenge

Adapted from: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/images/ipcc_scenario_prediction.gif

Need to Downscale IPCC Scenarios and Global Circulation Model to Regional Climate Models

This process in itself introduces significant uncertainty

But…we must proceed with best available estimates

8

Climate Change Factors:

Temperature

9

Range of Species XLittle shift in isotherms; minimal effects on temperature-dependent species

Constant CO2 - 2010 Constant CO2 - 2060

Annual Mean TemperatureFederal Reserve 2010 Average 2060 Const. CO2

Dry Tortugas National Park 25.1*C (77.3*F) 25.0*C (77.1*F)Canaveral National Seashore 22.2*C (72.0*F) 22.0*C (71.6*F)Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge 23.5*C (74.2*F) 23.3*C (74.0*F)Great White Heron National Wildlife Refuge 25.6*C (78.0*F) 25.4*C (77.8*F)

10

Range of Species XTemperature-regulated species may shift out of existing reserves

Annual Mean TemperatureFederal Reserve 2010 Average 2060 – B1

Dry Tortugas National Park 25.1*C (77.3*F) 25.7*C (78.3*F)

Canaveral National Seashore 22.2*C (72.0*F) 22.9*C (73.3*F)

Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge 23.5*C (74.2*F) 24.0*C (75.2*F)

Great White Heron National Wildlife Refuge 25.6*C (78.0*F) 26.1*C (78.9*F)

Low Biophysical Impact/ Low Biophysical Impact/

11

Range of Species XSpecies could migrate out of the Study Region

Annual Mean TemperatureFederal Reserve 2010 Average 2060 – A1B





Medium Biophysical Impact/ Medium Biophysical Impact/

12

Range of Species XSpecies could migrate out of the State of Florida

Annual Mean TemperatureFederal Reserve 2010 Average 2060 – A2





High Biophysical Impact/ High Biophysical Impact/

13


Precipitation

14

Anticipated Rainfall Variability

~ 50mm Spring decrease

Shift in Fall intensity

Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge – Precipitation Patterns

15

Anticipated Rainfall Variability

16


Sea-level rise

17

Crocodile Lake Everglades N.P. Ding Darling Key Deer Refuge

Sea level rise threatens criticalSouth Florida coastal refuges.

How will 1 meter SLR affect key refuges?

How much land will be lost with varying degrees of SLR?

What other damage can we expect?

(Not a crocodile)

How will 1 meter SLR affect key refuges?

18

Sea Level Rise

Federal Reserve 3.6” 18.4” 39.1” 113”

Caloosahatchee National Wildlife Refuge 40% 73% 100% 100%

Island Bay National Wildlife Refuge 2.5% 88% 93% 100%

Pine Island National Wildlife Refuge 5.5% 77% 82% 87%

Ten Thousand Islands NWR 8.1% 77% 96% 100%

Hobe Sound National Wildlife Refuge 6.5% 46% 70% 83%

80%95%75%90%

Crocodile Lake Everglades N.P. Ding Darling Key Deer Refuge

19

Simple Climate Downscale & Overlay•Results

• Temperature rise produces cross-boundary concerns

• Precipitation shifts can affect species phenology

• Sea level rise can dramatically reduce conservation acreage

Implications• This is a coupled human-natural systems problem

• Need climate-sensitive hydrology, vegetation, species and community models

• Need these to be coupled (ideally published as web services)

• But do not have these, and must start planning anyway!

20

Approach1.Stakeholder-based participatory planning

1. Stakeholders from federal, state and local agencies2. MIT facilitates , analyzes, synthesizes and develops the

alternative futures with regional stakeholders.

2.Scenario-based simulation modeling1. Multiple futures (purpose is supporting adaptive management,

not master planning)2. Simulation not Prediction (educated assumptions by local

experts, including policy options – not just trends)3. Generate set of possible futures/consequences to better inform

decision-makers.

21

What Are the Essential Components of “Alternative Futures” Planning?

1. Stakeholder Process

2. Scenarios

3. Change Models

4. Impact Models

22

Stakeholder-Based Processes

1. Ideally, a broad-based, representative group of those tasked with implementation + those with substantive knowledge to contribute

2. Provide expert review and help ensure management relevance

3. This requires significant “contact hours” and long term commitment

23

24

What Do We Mean By “Scenarios”?

1.Bundles of consistent assumptions, facts, projections and possible policies

2.Vary along multiple dimensions, not just one (i.e. climate + population)

3.Require expertise and judgment to construct usefully

25

Scenario DimensionsWhich aspects of change are considered?

• Climate Change

• Population Projections

• Financial Resources

• Planning Assumptions

26

Scenario Parameters & BundlingWhich specific values are used for each dimension, and how are they grouped?

27

Requirements for Spatial Change Simulation Models

1. Must cover uniform extent, spatial and temporal resolution

2. Consistent with historic change (and sometimes calibrated using it)

3. But must be sensitive to scenario parameters, often including a-historic policies or events

28

Alternative Futures Simulation Process

ATTRACTIVENESSDEMAND

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES (2020 -2040 -2060)

•Residential •Conservation•Agriculture

•Residential •Conservation•Agriculture

29

Year: 2010Year: 2020Year: 2040

Scenario C Scenario B

High Sea Level Rise – Low Financial ResourcesBusiness as Usual – Double Population

Low Sea Level Rise – High Financial ResourcesProactive – Trend Population

Year: 2060Year: 2060

Only newarea

allocated

Allocated Land Uses

Residential

Conservation

Agriculture

!( Transit Oriented Dev.

Sea Level Rise

Current Land Uses

Residential

Conservation

Agriculture

Interstate Highways

Major Lakes

Major Riversotherother

16.7%

26.6%

27.7%

29.1%

Percent of Study Region Area

9.7%

22.7%

44.1%

23.5%

Percent of Study Region Area

30

Spatial Impact ModelsConsiderations

1. Should quantify changes to valued resources

2. Should be science-based

3. But must be sensitive to scenario parameters, often including a-historic policies or events

Preliminary Examples

• Species HabitatBlack BearPantherCaracaraScrub Jay

• Florida Greenways Project Network

• FNAI Endangered Natural Communities

31High Sea Level Rise – Low Financial ResourcesBusiness as Usual – Double Population


Development Conflict With Suitable Black Bear Habitat

Total Habitat Acreage in Thousands:

3,000

C B

Conflict Area:

13%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0.9%


32High Sea Level Rise – Low Financial ResourcesBusiness as Usual – Double Population


Development Conflict With Suitable Black Bear Habitat

Total Habitat Acreage in Thousands:

3,000

C B

Conflict Area:

13%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0.9%


33

Example Impact

0.9%13%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000


Acr

es

Total Potential Habitat: 2,976,602 acres

Potential Black Bear Habitat

Represents simple habitat loss to urbanization or sea level rise (no edge effects, minimum patch area, etc.)

Does not account for changes to “climate niche” or underlying vegetation

34

Conclusions

35

Consultation Process# Workshop Results

1 November 2008 Preliminary Assessment & Consultation

2 January 2009 Stakeholder Assessment & Geographic Identification of Context

3 June 2009 Scenario Dimensions, Assumptions & Prioritization

4 September 2009 Scenario Revision & Validation of Assumptions

5 April 2010 Simulation of Alternative Futures & Model Calibration

6 August, 2010 Second and final round of Scenarios and Models Calibration

7 October, 2010 Project Final presentation

36

Why Apply “Alternative Futures” Planning to the Everglades/So. FL LCC?

1. Significant long-term uncertainty about 1. Climate Change (sea level, temperature & precip)2. Human population decline / growth3. Plans and Policies (land management, water management, resource

management)

2. Interested Stakeholders with Fragmented Decision Authority1. Fish and Wildlife Service (multiple refuges + 68 T&E species)2. Counties (primary responsibility for land use planning)3. State (FWC, also water districts)4. Other Federal Agencies (National Park Service, Army Corps, etc).

3. A Practical Method to Integrate Science with Decision-making1. Makes use of extensive existing science capacity2. Successfully applied in many other regions to “wicked” problems

37

Future Directions

• Looking for partners to undertake – Full impact analysis of scenarios

• With Expert-based Science Review

– Evaluate existing conservation strategies

• Overlay and analyze relative to 9 MIT scenarios

• Identify vulnerabilities in current and proposed network relative to climate change

– Develop/test revised conservation strategies

• Identify potential network expansions/shifts

• ID potential climate corridors or stepping stones

37

38

Thank you!

Documents

Using “Alternative Futures” to Assist Landscape ... · • Precipitation shifts can affect species phenology • Sea level rise can dramatically reduce conservation acreage Implications