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Using administrative data – the statistical potential - RSS, 5 Dec 2014
Research into using administrative data and surveys to produce census and population statistics
Ann BlakeBeyond 2011 Programme, Office for National Statistics, UK
The Beyond 2011 Programme
• Census – every 10 years for over 200 years• Review a normal part of the census cycle but
the need greater than everRapidly changing society
Evolving user requirementsTechnological advances
Improved data sources
DRIVERS : Cost, efficiency, opportunity, burden
CRITERIA : Cost V social and economic benefit of outputs, privacy, public acceptability, risk etc
Programme Purpose
• Identify the best way to provide small area population and socio-demographic statistics in future
• Provide a recommendation in 2014
England and Wales (but similar programmes in Scotland and Northern Ireland)
Narrowed down to two potential approaches
A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011,
but primarily online
A census based on administrative data
and large annual surveys
Major statistical challenges in using admin data• No population register
Nobody has attempted this without a register
• Definitions• Data quality
Incomplete
Out of date (especially address data)
Duplicates
Erroneous entries (people abroad or have died)
• Not all topics are available in admin data (or that we have access to)
→ We would still need surveys to help adjust for data error and/or definitional differences, and fill gaps.
2011 NHS Patient register population counts compared with 2011 Census population estimates
Patient register is …
More than 13 % lower 8.5% to 13% lower 3.8% to 8.5% lower Within 3.8% 3.8% to 8.5% higher 8.5% to 13% higher More than 13 % higher
Tax/Benefit register population counts compared with 2011 Census population estimates
Tax system is …
More than 13 % lower 8.5% to 13% lower 3.8% to 8.5% lower Within 3.8% 3.8% to 8.5% higher 8.5% to 13% higher More than 13 % higher
Using Administrative data and surveys to produce population estimates
National Health Service
Patient register (PR)
Tax and Benefits Customer information
System (CIS)
Student data
populationestimates
Admin Data based estimates compared with 2011 Census population estimates
Admin data is: More than 13 % lower 8.5% to 13% lower 3.8% to 8.5% lower Within 3.8% 3.8% to 8.5% higher 8.5% to 13% higher More than 13 % higher
Population Pyramids using admin data
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990+
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
population (millions)
Administrative data method population pyramid with Census comparison: England & Wales
Admininstrativedata methodCensus
Males FemalesAdmininstrativedata methodCensus
SPD 5
Percentage difference between administrative data based estimates and Census estimates – Output Areas (average 300 people)
0
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ate
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Pe
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Percentage difference from 2011 Census Estimates
Using Administrative data and surveys to produce population estimates
National Health ServicePatient register (PR)
Tax and Benefits Customer information
System (CIS)1%
coveragesurvey
Student data
populationestimates
Topic Availability
Name Yes
Age/Date of birth Yes
Marital status* Partial
Address (including one year ago, alternative)* Yes
Ethnicity Partial
National identity* Partial
Country of birth* Partial
Residence/migrant status* Yes/Partial
Passports held Partial
Intention to stay in UK No
Language* Partial
Religion* Partial
Availability of census topics/variables in administrative data held by central government
* Possible or known definitional differences
Availability of census topics/variables in administrative data held by central government
Topic Availability
General health
(Derived Health index/condition*)
No
Partial?
Caring responsibilities* Partial
Long-term limiting illness/disability* Partial
Qualifications Partial
Economic activity* Partial?
Hours worked* Partial
Occupation No?
Industry of employer Partial?
Personal Income* (historically not included in Census)
Yes
Place of work* Partial
Mode of travel to work No
* Possible or known definitional differences
Census and England School Census Ethnicity
National Statistician’s RECOMMENDATION
• An online census of all households and communal establishments in 2021 - with support for those who are unable to complete the census online.
AND
• Increased use of administrative data and surveys in order to enhance the statistics from the 2021 census and improve annual statistics between censuses.
Make the best use of all available data to provide the population statistics required
and offer a springboard to the greater use of administrative data and
annual surveys in the future.
The evidence
Statistical research - population estimates
Statistical research - population characteristics
Public acceptability
Data linkage methods
Legislation
Independent reviews – Chris Skinner and international review
Public discussions and the consultation
30+ papers published – Search “Beyond 2011”
Beyond 2011 Programme conclusions – phase 1
• Huge potential for use of administrative data• But not there yet
• Way forward agreed with Government• Online Census in 2021
• With increased use of administrative / survey data
• Government ambition that 2021 Census should be the last• subject to evaluation of admin data based
alternative in 2021
Next steps - three key strands1. 2021 online Census operation
• Research, development, implementation & operation of a 2021 online Census• Maximise online response, minimise digital exclusion
2. Integrated population statistics outputs• Integration of census, admin & survey data
=> Production of more detailed and more frequent outputs• Early benefit 2015 onwards: trial outputs
3. Beyond 2021• Ongoing development of new methods using administrative data and surveys • Trial outputs and annual assessment and evaluation against 2021 census
outputs• Dependent on data access and data quality (and methods)• In 2023, proposals for the future of the census and population statistics beyond
2021
Location Accuracy: PR, CIS and School Census when compared to 2011 Population Census
Longitudinal analysis of lag update
Same address information on 2011 PR as Census
Different address information on 2011 PR to Census
Same address information on 2011 PR as Census
Same address information on 2012 PR as Census
Different address information on 2011 PR and 2012 PR to Census
Same address information on 2011 PR as Census
Same address information on 2012 PR as Census
Same address information on 2013 PR as Census
Different address information on 2011 PR, 2012 PR and 2013 PR to Census
Why produce trial outputs?
1. Demonstrate continual development and improvement of methods
2. Seek user feedback on the usefulness and quality
3. Begin building time-series for comparison against MYEs, and 2021 Census – building evidence for 2023 Recommendation
4. Demonstrate ‘early benefits’
5. Need to develop ‘operationalised’ processes
Annual timeline
JulJun OctSep DecNov Jan Feb AprMar MayAug
Publish trial outputs
Research Conference
Winter Roadshows
Publish evaluation
Annual MYEs published
What will we publish?
• Start with SPD-based population estimates and begin to build a time-series/compare with MYEs
• Start with 2013 or 2014-based output, range of geographies
• Over time, extend to characteristics, improve detail and quality