Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
March 18, 2014 © 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association® 1
Click to Tweet:
Free public webinar today on the #Solar Market
Insight Report 2013 Year in Review. Get all the
highlights: http://seia.us/1mSbZgU #SMI
Use #SMI and #Solar when
mentioning today’s webinar:
U.S. Solar Market Insight: 2013
Year In Review
Antitrust Reminder
• As a trade association of competitors, SEIA must
comply with federal and D.C. antitrust laws.
• Competitively sensitive matters cannot be
discussed on this webinar, including product
prices; sales terms or conditions; production levels;
sales territories; marketing plans; industry
forecasts; or bid terms.
• If any such topic is raised, SEIA will stop the
conversation and, if necessary, end the webinar.
• For more information, SEIA’s antitrust policy is
available on its website: www.seia.org.
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 2
Cory Honeyman Solar Analyst, GTM Research
Shawn Rumery, Research Manager, Solar Energy Industries Association
Will Lent, Research & Policy Analyst, Solar Energy Industries Association
Will Lent and Shawn Rumery
March 6th, 2014
About SEIA
• Founded in 1974
• U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy
• 1,000 member companies from around the world
• Members from across 50 states
• Largest companies in the world as well as small
installers
• Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power
America
• Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar
capacity in the U.S. by 2015
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 5
Solar in America: Strong and Getting Stronger
• Nearly 143,000 American workers in solar – more than
double the number in 2009 – at 6,100 companies across
the country
• The value of U.S. solar installations was $13.7 billion in
2013, up from just $810 million in 2006.
• 2013 was the largest year ever for the U.S. solar industry,
with 4,751 MW of PV installed, marking 41% growth over
2012. There were also 410 MW of CSP installed- another
record mark.
• 13,000 MW of cumulative installed solar electric capacity,
enough to power 2.2 million average American homes
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 6
U.S. Solar Business Locations
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 7
Solar Market Insight: 2013 Year in Review
• Detailed data on markets in
top 30 states plus DC
available in full report.
• Free executive summary
provides national aggregate
data on installations, pricing,
manufacturing and demand
forecasts.
• Full report for sale (50%
discount to SEIA members)
includes quarterly forecasts
as well as detailed market
segment and state data.
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 8
SEIA/GTM Research Partnership
• Industry need for up-to-date and reliable market data
– Market reports issued every quarter
• Member discount: benefit for SEIA members
– Reliable market intelligence
– Member discount makes SMI the most affordable market
research available
• Data to support SEIA’s advocacy mission
• SEIA-GTM conferences
• Email questions to [email protected] or
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 9
1,206 MW Installed in Q4 2013- Largest Quarter in
History
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 10
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 11
Record Quarters for All Three Market Segments
Over 445,000 PV Systems Operating in the US
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 12
Price Declines Driving Growth
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 13
Average Residential System Price - $4.59/W
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 14
Average Commercial System Price - $3.57/W
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 15
2013 State Performance
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 16
What to Expect For 2014
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 17
U.S. Solar Market Forecast- PV Market to Grow by
26% in 2014
March 18, 2014 © 2013 Solar Energy Industries Association® 18
U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment
Quarterly Installations
(MWdc)Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
Residential 168 171 194 259
Non-Residential 255 226 227 405
Utility 322 543 540 1,442
Total 744 939 962 2,106
• Top 5 states accounted for 81% of all installations in 2013
– 3,850 MW from CA (all), AZ (all), NC (utility PV), MA (DG), and NJ (DG)
• Top 5 states in 2013 will once again be the same in 2014
– But 50% of all states will add at least 20 MW in 2014
The Top 5 States Drove Majority of Growth
Key Figures
• 2013: 792 MW installed, up 60%
year-over-year
• Q4 2013: 259 MW installed
National Level Trends
• Evolving Channel Strategies
– Retail Outlets
– Competitive Electricity Suppliers
• Financial Innovations
– Securitization of residential PV
assets
– Rising popularity of solar loans vs.
third party ownership
Residential Market: Fueled by Q4 Boom
• CA (410 MW): Growth amidst the
depletion of CSI incentives
– 2H 2013: Consecutive 100 MW+
quarters
• AZ (72.3 MW): Demand pull-in amidst
impending net metering reforms
– Rebates reduced to $0.10/W and funding
then depleted in Q4 2013
• HI (85.4 MW): PV grid saturation
challenges underlie market growth
– Sluggish approval of interconnection
requests shifts growth from Q3 to Q4
– ¼ of Oahu distribution circuits’ PV
penetration > 100% minimum DTL
– 20% fewer PV permits pulled in 2013
than 2012 on Oahu
Residential Market: State Level Analysis
• Accounted for 52% of national
residential market in 2013
• Residential rebates are
exhausted in PG&E territory,
while SCE and SDG&E’s
incentives are in the final step
• “Retail rate parity” with only
30% ITC, net metering, and
accelerated depreciation
• National level trends of
financial innovation and
evolving channel strategies on
display
California: Unprecedented Growth Post-CSI
Key Figures
• 2013: 1,112 MW installed, up 4%
year-over-year
• Q4 2013: 405 MW installed
National Level Trends
• Highlighted by lumpy development
cycles
– Higher sensitivity to incentive
reductions than residential market
– Continued need to standardize
access to financing
• NJ’s downturn vs. Secondary
Markets’ Expansion
Non-Residential Market: Volatile 2013
• CA (293 MW) and AZ (58.1 MW): Incentives targeting school and government projects lead growth
• MA (177.7 MW): Largest quarter ever amidst rush to qualify under SREC I and private/public net metering caps
– SREC I Capacity Online: 410 MW
– Pipeline Eligible under SREC I: 262 MW (non-residential)
• NJ (188.8 MW): SREC price stabilization spurs market rebound in Q4 2013
• Markets on the Rise:
– NY (42.2 MW) NYSERDA’s Competitive PV Program
– CT (22.6 MW) IOU’s ZREC Programs
Non-Residential Market: State Level Analysis
Utility PV Market: Top 10 Q4 Projects Completed
Project Name DeveloperCapacity
(MWdc)State Power Offtaker
Desert Sunlight PG&E -
Phase IFirst Solar 231.6 CA Pacific Gas & Electric
Topaz Solar Farm - Phase III First Solar 160.8 CA Pacific Gas & Electric
Campo Verde Solar First Solar 159.8 CA San Diego Gas & Electric
SunPower High Plains
(California Valley Solar
Ranch) - Phase IV & V
SunPower 141.4 CA Pacific Gas & Electric
Desert Sunlight SCE - Phase
IFirst Solar 88.4 CA
Southern California
Edison
Antelope Valley Solar I
(Solar Star California XX)SunPower 65.5 CA
Southern California
Edison
Alamo - Phase 1 OCI Enterprises 47.1 TX CPS Energy
Simon Solar Farm Silicon Ranch 38.0 GA Georgia Power
Indy Solar Projects I-III Dominion 32.9 INIndianapolis Power &
Light
Sol Orchard Imperial 1 Grupo T-Solar 25.0 CA Imperial Irrigation District
• 2013: 2,847 MW installed, up 58%
year-over-year
– 1,442 MW installed in Q4 2013
alone
• 9 of the 10 largest PV projects
currently online were completed or
partially commissioned in 2013
Key Market Takeaways
• Completion of mega-scale projects
with longstanding PPAs in place
with the California IOUs
• Emergence of secondary
wholesale DG markets
• Q4 2013: First time installations
outpaced pipeline replenishment
Gigawatt Growth vs. Pipeline in Decline
5,836
25,120
3,314
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Operating Contracted (PPA Signed) Announced (Pre-Contract)
Ca
pacity
(MW
dc)
U.S. Utility PV Pipeline
In Construction
11,657
2013: Legislative and Regulatory Roundup
State Reform Regulatory
Lever
Key Details
CA NEM and Rate
Design
AB 327 • Fixed charges (up to $10/month)
• Flattening tiered rate structures
• New uncapped NEM program after July 1, 2017 or when
predefined capacity limits are reached
• Length of grandfathering will depend on a “reasonable
expected payback period” of the PV system based on the
first year it came on-line.
AZ NEM ACC Ruling • Fixed charge of $0.70/kW/month
• Grandfathered in under old NEM program for 20 years if
interconnection application submitted before end of 2013
GA Utility Procurement PUC
mandates
• ASI (210 MW): 90 MW for projects up to 1 MW; 120 MW
for large scale PV projects (1-20 MW)
• ASI Prime (525 MW): 425 MW of large scale PV (not
capped at 20 MW) and 100 MW of wholesale DG
MA Solar Carve Out State RPS • Solar carve out expanded to 1,600 MW by 2020
MN Solar Carve Out State RPS • 1.5% solar carve out by 2020
• Community solar gardens, Solar*Rewards, 150 MW utility
PV RFP, and VOST methodology finalized
Bullish Outlook for 2014-2016
• We expect continued strong, albeit
moderate, growth across all market
segments through 2016
Market Downturn in 2017
• We expect a drop off in installations,
partially due to pull-in demand in 2016
ahead of the Federal ITC’s expiration
• The market would likely begin a
recovery in 2018
Four Year PV Market Outlook
Bullish Outlook for 2014-2016
• We expect continued strong, albeit
moderate, growth across all market
segments through 2016
Market Downturn in 2017
• We expect a drop off in installations,
partially due to pull-in demand in 2016
ahead of the Federal ITC’s expiration
• The market would likely begin a
recovery in 2018
Four Year PV Market Outlook
Average Installed Prices Fall Year-Over-Year
U.S. Component Prices Recover in 2013
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
Polysilicon
($/kg)
$19.88 $17.36 $19.00 $19.00 $20.20
Wafer ($/W) $0.23 $0.21 $0.22 $0.22 $0.23
Cell ($/W) $0.31 $0.32 $0.44 $0.42 $0.43
Module ($/W) $0.68 $0.64 $0.68 $0.70 $0.72
U.S. Concentrating Solar Update
Thank You and Contact Info
Justin Baca, Director of Research
Will Lent, Senior Analyst
Shawn Rumery, Research Manager
Contact: [email protected]
Cory Honeyman, Solar Analyst
Contact: [email protected]
For more information about purchasing
the full SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar
Market Insight: 2013 Year-in-Review™
report, please visit
www.gtmresearch.com/ussmi or email
Justin Freedman
Questions
Please type your questions into the lower left corner
of the window.
Click the “send” button to submit.
March 18, 2014 © 2014 Solar Energy Industries Association® 35