USACE-ERDC Coastal Storm Modeling System · PDF fileUSACE-ERDC Coastal Storm Modeling System Updates Chris Massey, ... SMS GUI’s • New GUI for ... Updated GUI for ADCIRC . Through

USACE-ERDC Coastal Storm Modeling System

Updates

Chris Massey, PhD Research Mathematician USACE-ERDC Coastal & Hydraulics Lab [email protected]

Innovative solutions for a safer, better world BUILDING STRONG®

ERDC’s Coastal Storm-Modeling System (ERDC CSTORM-MS)

Next Generation Workflow

Not just hurricanes and not just in the Gulf of Mexico.

Expandable and upgradeable system.

Application of high-resolution, highly skilled numerical models in a tightly integrated modeling system with user friendly interfaces

Provides for a robust, standardized approach to establishing the risk of coastal communities to future occurrences of storm events.

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SMS GUI’s

• New GUI for Project Overview

• New GUI for MORPHOS PBL Cyclone Model

• New GUI for CSTORM Coupled Models

• Updated GUI for AdH

• New GUI for WAM Wave Model

•Updated GUI for STWAVE

• Updated GUI for ADCIRC

Through the SMS GUI’s users can setup and execute models as well as visualize model results.

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What’s New

AdH coupling with STWAVE

SEDLIB enhanced with C2SHORE

Time varying bathymetry added to ADCIRC & STWAVE

Time varying ice concentration fields added to ADCIRC, STWAVE, and WAM

Full Morphology Coupling – ADCIRC + STWAVE+(ADH/C2Shore+STWAVE) (Oct 2013)

Working on coupling to GSSHA

ASGS for CSTORM-MS

FEMA-LRE Lake Michigan Storm Water Level Modeling


Full Morphology Coupling

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ADCIRC

STWAVE T1

STWAVE T1

STWAVE T2

ADH ADH

STWT2 ADH/C2Shore

Information Flow

ADCIRC

STWT1

ADH/C2Shore

ADH/C2Shore

STWT2

ADCIRC

STWT1

ADCIRC

STWT2


CHL’s Hurricane Sandy Modeling Efforts On Saturday Oct. 27, 2012, ERDC CHL was asked by the New York

District (NAN) through the UROC to provide estimates to potential flooding in the New York City area before 1200 EDT on Monday October, 29, 2012.

Provide potential coastal storm surge estimates using the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC

Provide potential inland flooding estimates using the overland flow model GSSHA

Advisory 20 from Saturday at 0500 EDT

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All estimates carried a disclaimer that the results were not intended to replace the official forecasts from NOAA.


CHL’s ADCIRC Runs for Sandy

Surge Modeling for Sandy • Used two meshes

• EC2001FIMP Grid • FEMA Region 2 Grid

• Used tidal forcing and the imbedded asymmetric vortex Holland wind/pressure model • Wind model inputs derived from the NHC forecast using the ASGS • Advisories 22 – 31 were simulated • Advisory 26 results sent to NAN.

EC2001FIMP Grid FEMA Region 2 Grid

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Max Elevation (ft MSL)

EC2001FIMP Grid

Advisory 26

Advisory 29

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The Battery, NY Elevation (ft MSL)

EC2001FIMP Grid

UTC Time

Advisory 26

Advisory 29

Datum Conversions at this Location MSL to NAVD88 subtract 0.21 ft MSL to MLLW add 2.57 ft

UTC Time

UTC Time

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Comparison of Hurricane Sandy Water Elevations (ft MSL) at the NOAA Gauge at

the Battery, NY

Datum Conversions at this Location MSL to NAVD88 subtract 0.21 ft MSL to MLLW add 2.57 ft

UTC Time

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GSSHA New York Models

GSSHA is a gridded, physics-based full hydrology model ► Overland flow, stream flow,

groundwater, vadose zone, storm and tile drains, wetlands, erosion, constituent transport

GSSHA 2D Overland Flow Model used to predict inland flood inundation ► Use time-varying specified head

condition for storm surge 2 Models:

► Central NY Model @75m (right) ► Long Island Model @150m

Rainfall estimated from NWS plots

Storm surge from ADCIRC

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GSSHA Results from Advisory 26

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GSSHA Results from Advisory 26

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GFDL Met Option for ADCIRC

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The NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. More detailed GFDL information is available at http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov. 1. Operational Hurricane Forecast 2. Ensemble Hurricane Modeling

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/�


GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16

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Moving nested grids that track the center of the storm

Interpolation onto ADCIRC nodes using the fast KDTree search algorithm and inverse weighted distance averaging from the nearest 6 cells.



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Zoomed

Wind Speed (m/s)



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Zoomed

Sea Surface Pressure (hPa)



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GFDL files are text ASCII, with each file containing information for one time record. All fields in a file are written as real numbers with f10.4 format Line 1: Total Number of Grid Points Line 2 – End: U V Temp Mixing

Ratio Accum Precip

Sea Level Pressure

Longitude Latitude Hurricane Hour

Nest Number

m/s m/s K kg/kg cm hPa decimal deg

decimal deg

Nest 1 – Cell Spacing = 0.5 degrees Nest 2 – Cell Spacing = 0.5/3 = 0.1667 degrees Nest 3 – Cell Spacing = 0.5/6 = 0.0833 degrees

Current Operational Model Spacing

New High Res: 0.5/9 = 0.0555 degrees



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The ADCIRC fort.22 file for NWS=16 is very similar to that of NWS=15 (Hwind) 1. # Metadata Header 2. WND_MULT – Wind Multiplier Value (Real Number) 3. MAX_EXTRAP_DIST – Maximum Extrapolation Distance (m) (Real Number) 4. CYCLE_TIME, RAMP_VAL, FILE_NAME …

#High Res. GFDL Hurricane Sandy Base 1.0 1.0e+04 0.0 1.0 hrhour90.2012102600 1.0 1.0 hrhour91.2012102600 2.0 1.0 hrhour92.2012102600 3.0 1.0 hrhour93.2012102600 4.0 1.0 hrhour94.2012102600 5.0 1.0 hrhour95.2012102600 6.0 1.0 hrhour96.2012102600 7.0 1.0 hrhour97.2012102600 8.0 1.0 hrhour98.2012102600

CYCLE_TIME – IN HOURS (Real Number) (Time relative to cold start if NWS=16, otherwise relative to hot start time if NWS=-16) RAMP_VAL – (Real Number) (Ramping multiplier) FILE_NAME – (Character 1024)


ADCIRC Results for GFDL Sandy Forecast 2012/10/25 at 12 UTC

Documents

USACE-ERDC Coastal Storm Modeling System · PDF fileUSACE-ERDC Coastal Storm Modeling System Updates Chris Massey, ... SMS GUI’s • New GUI for ... Updated GUI for ADCIRC . Through