USA TODAY Collegiate Case Study: Election 2008: Presidential Primaries

8/9/2019 USA TODAY Collegiate Case Study: Election 2008: Presidential Primaries

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C o llegiat e

Case

S tu d y

THE NATION S NEW S PAPE R

Naders candidacy ranklesDemocratsBy David Jackson

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Ready on Day One?By David Jackson

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Candidates age factors little inpollBy Susan Page

.....................................................................................5Obama now seen as mostelectableBy Susan Page

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Critical inquiryDiscussion and future implications

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Copyright 2008 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

Personality, leadership qualities, charisma, electability, even likeability - these,along with other more objective assessments, such as age or experience, areoften the qualities that sway us in the voting booth. Yet, as Thomas Jeffersonfamously said, The best defense of democracy is an informed electorate. Whatinformation do we use to form our opinions - the very opinions that often divideus as a country? Ultimately, what information do we use to support a president?Even when we are truly informed, is a candidates position on any issue moreimportant than the immeasurable qualties of leadership and vision?

As the primary season draws to a close, these issues will play a vital role in thecandidates race to receive their partys nomination. Candidates may not haveenough electoral votes to clinch the nomination prior to the convention. Statesthat have been relegated to the backburner may now play a vital role in decid-ing nominees. This case study will help students have a better understanding ofhow people choose whom to vote for and explore the issues candidates seek asthe seek nomination.

Election 2008: Presidential Primaries

Americans revved up and ready to vote

By Susan Page and William RisserUSA TODAY

WASHINGTON American voters, toborrow a candidate's phrase, are firedup and ready to go.

Turnout in the opening Iowa caucusesand New Hampshire primary thismonth smashed records. By 2-1, thosesurveyed in a new USA TODAY/GallupPoll say they're more enthusiastic thanusual about voting this year. Nine in 10say it makes a difference to them whois elected president.

With the stakes high and the country'sdirection up for grabs, voters arepoised to continue a rebound in

Election Day turnout that began afterdipping to a historic low in 1996, whenbarely over half of those eligible to votebothered to go to the polls. High levelsof interest are reshaping the races inboth parties, boosting candidates whohave reached out to new voters at theexpense of those who targeted theranks of the tried-and-true.

"I hate to say it, but (in past elections)I'd vote if I was available or my sched-ule allowed it or I remembered," saysSara Koscura, 28, a Republican andattorney in upstate Watertown, N.Y.,who was among those surveyed."Voting wasn't a high priority, but thisyear it is."

Iraq, economy, fresh faces boost interest


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She supports Arizona Sen. John McCain, who won easily inNew Hampshire over the better-funded Mitt Romney after

pulling independent voters to the Republican primary. InIowa, Romney's superior organization lost to MikeHuckabee, who drew a flood of conservative Christians tothe caucuses.

The broadest outreach to young and independent votershas been by Democrat Barack Obama who described vot-ers as being "fired up."

Young and independent voters swamp Obama's rallies,delivered a sweeping victory for him in Iowa and contributeto his strength heading into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when22 states will hold contests.

Opposition to the Iraq war, anxiety about a possible reces-sion, dissatisfaction with President Bush and dismay overgridlock in Washington are fueling Americans' engagementin the 2008 election.

By 62%-28%, voters say they're more enthusiastic about vot-ing than usual. That's 17 percentage points higher than atthis point in 2000 and 6 points higher than in 2004 a yearin which November turnout was the highest in a genera-tion.

Democrats are significantly more keyed up about the elec-tion than Republicans, a major advantage if the feeling con-tinues to November.

Republicans and independents who "lean" to the GOP sayby 49%-37% that they're more excited than usual. ForDemocrats, it's 74%-19%.

"If things are going fine, people would relax and get back totheir lives and go to the movies. But when the country's introuble, then obviously you turn your attention to solvingthe problems in front of you," says Jon Krosnick, a Stanfordprofessor who studies political psychology.

"Lots of people in the country, more so than in a really longtime, are unhappy with the direction the leadership hasbeen taking," he says.

That unhappiness is deep-seated. In the USA TODAY polltaken Thursday through Sunday, more than half of thosesurveyed say they are pessimistic or uncertain about howwell the U.S. government will work in the long run. Nearlytwo-thirds are pessimistic or uncertain about the long-termsoundness of the economy.

Nicole Collier, 25, a Democrat who works for the TexasDepartment of Transportation in Austin, frets about thefuture.

"There is so much uncertainty in what direction someonecan go in once Bush is gone," Collier says. "There's a whole

lot of work to do: where we are in Iraq, where we are withmedical care. ... There's a lot riding on it," she says of the2008 election.

Collier, who's supporting New York Sen. Hillary RodhamClinton, says that going to the polls this year "is critical.

"Once someone is elected, I don't want to look back andsay, 'I should have voted.'"

The under-30 crowdThe greatest surge in political participation this year hasbeen among the least reliable of voters: those under 30.

Even as turnout in the New Hampshire primary rose amongall age groups, those 18 to 29 increased their share of theelectorate. They made up 18% of Democratic voters, com-pared with 14% in 2004. In a survey of voters at the polls,young people were 14% of GOP voters, up from 11% in 2000.

In Iowa, the number of those 17 to 29 attending caucusestripled from 2004. They made up 22% of Democratic cau-cusgoers up 5 points from 2004 and 11% of Republicancaucusgoers.

Among Republicans, former Arkansas governor Huckabeedid best among young voters, many of them evangelical

Christians and home-schooling parents.

Among Democrats, Obama carried voters under 30 by 5-1, amajor factor in the size of his victory there. He had courtedsupport on college campuses and high schools, where thosewho would be 18 by Election Day were eligible to partici-pate.

Obama's strategists, getting reports that night at the cam-paign's Des Moines headquarters, were amazed by theturnout among young people in particular and Iowans ingeneral, says Steve Hildebrand, a veteran Democratic organ-izer and Obama adviser.

The campaign had projected a total of 150,000 to 160,000participants in the Democratic caucuses. Nearly 240,000showed up, almost double the record.

In one example of the challenges that can mean to cam-paigns, Clinton aides say they met their targets in deliveringsupporters to the caucuses only to have those numbersswamped by higher-than-expected turnout. She finishedthird.


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"Voters under 30 have been one of the worst-performingcategories of voters for decades," Hildebrand says. "And thequestion is going to be whether this is a one-year, one-time

deal or if it's going to be a new part of the electorate."In the past, the political engagement of young people hasspiked only to wane.

"Remember, this occurred for Howard Dean" in 2004, saysCurtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of theAmerican Electorate.

"It occurred for John McCain in 2000. It occurred a little bitfor Ronald Reagan in 1984, for Clinton-Gore in 1992, forGene McCarthy and George McGovern" in 1968 and 1972.

Some young voters and some older ones remain unen-gaged. (Turnout wasn't particularly heavy in Tuesday's

Michigan primary, which was ignored by the Democraticcandidates because it wasn't sanctioned by the nationalparty.)

"To me, even though you say that your one vote counts, I'mthinking it really doesn't ," says Derek Foster, 20, a driver forFrito-Lay who lives in Manteca, Calif.

This is the first election in which Foster has been oldenough to vote, but he isn't registered and doesn't plan tobother.

That attitude was more common among young peoplebefore the 9/11 attacks, says John Della Volpe, a politicalscientist at Harvard who has been studying youth votingsince 2000.

"Then, they said, 'It doesn't matter,' 'politicians are all thesame,' 'my vote's irrelevant,'" he says.

But 9/11 inspired many young people to pay more attentionto politics, he says. Some current issues the war, globalwarming, ethnic killings in Darfur have particularly cap-tured the interest of young people.

Campaigns in both parties are targeting young people,especially through online social networks that have madethe task easier.

Get-out-the-vote efforts targeting supporters of all ageshave become more intensive. Academic studies, some pub-lished since the 2004 election, have shown that supporterswho troop from door-to-door have a much more significantimpact than "robo-calls" from celebrities, for instance.

Ken Mehlman, campaign manager for Bush's re-election,credits sophisticated use of shoe leather as an asset thatdrove up Republican turnout in such critical states as Ohioin 2004.

Hope ... and fearOne key motivation for voters: hope.

By 84%-11%, Americans say there's a candidate running whowould make a good president. The view is bipartisan, heldby 85% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats.

That's a rosier assessment than during previous campaigns.At this point in 1992, when the elder President Bush wasrunning for re-election against a wide Democratic field, just40% felt that way.

In 1996, when President Clinton was running for re-elec-tion, 57% did. In 2000, as his tenure was ending, 75% saw agood prospect in the field of those hoping to succeed him.

What's more, seven in 10 now say the candidates are talk-ing about the issues they really care about.

A majority believe some of the candidates are coming upwith good ideas to solve the country's problems. Two-thirdssay the election process is working as it should.

"This is not a re-run election," says Steven Rosenstone, apolitical scientist at the University of Minnesota and authorof Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America."This isn't another pass at Bush. It's not another pass at(Bill) Clinton. These are relatively fresh faces for most of thenation and candidates with some positives. That's going toturn people on."

The breakthrough character of some of the campaigns the most serious presidential campaigns ever waged by anAfrican-American (Obama), a woman (Hillary RodhamClinton), a Mormon (Romney) has energized some voters.

"The last couple elections I just voted Democratic; I don'teven remember who I voted for," says Jacob Holmes, 28,who works in a pizza parlor in St. Louis and was called inthe poll.

This year, he's paying closer attention and pulling forClinton.

"I'd like to see a woman in office, that's my thing." he says.

Bess Lovejoy, 28, a reference-book writer from Manhattan,says she's been "obsessed" with the campaign and inspiredby Obama's candidacy since she attended a New York rally.

"He just seemed to broadly touch on a lot of things thatmattered to me and understood the issues in a way that Iwas really sympathetic to," Lovejoy says.

There's another powerful motivation this year, too.


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AS SEEN IN USA TODAYS NEWS SECTION JANUARY 17, 2008, 1A"We've found what drives turnout is whether they dislike acandidate," Krosnick says. Those who are uncomfortablewith or opposed to having a woman or an African-

American or a Mormon as president will be more likely tovote to try to keep them from winning.

That's one reason political polarization has spurred voterparticipation.

In the 2004 election, marked by a bitter partisan split afterthe disputed outcome in 2000, 60.7% of those eligible tovote did so -- the highest turnout since 1968.

Strong interest in the election early in the year usually cor-relates to high turnout in November. Some analysts sayturnout this year might top 2004's record.

For one thing, the sharp divide between the two majorpolitical parties hasn't eased.

The candidates, viewed so positively in their own party,spark equally strong negative reactions from those on theother side.In a Gallup Poll last month, respondents were asked

whether they would be "excited," "pleased," "disappointed"or "afraid" depending on which candidate was elected pres-ident in 2008.

Among Democrats, 25% chose the most extreme reaction --"afraid" -- if Republican Romney were elected; 29% felt thatway about a Rudy Giuliani presidency. Among Republicans,three in 10 said they would be afraid if Democrats Obamaor John Edwards won.

And Clinton?Sixty-two percent of Republicans said they would be afraidif she won.

"Might be looking at Canada if she's elected," jokes KenBridge, 43, an auto-parts salesman from Powell Butte, Ore.A Republican, he likes former Tennessee senator FredThompson but doubts he'll win the GOP nomination.

"I'm following it pretty close," Bridge says of the election."I'll definitely be there this year."


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Candidates' age factors little in pollBut respondents guess wrong about how old they are

By Susan PageUSA TODAY

WASHINGTON The good news for Arizona Sen. JohnMcCain, the likely Republican presidential nominee, isthat most Americans don't think he's too old to be presi-dent.

The bad news is that most Americans don't realize howold he is.

In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Thursday throughSunday, nearly six in 10 underestimated his age, which is71. More than a third lopped off six years or more whenasked to name their "best guess."

And Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama?

By an even bigger margin, Americans said he's not tooyoung to be president. Still, about four in 10 overesti-mated his age, which is 46, while half underestimated it.

For New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, two-thirds ofAmericans pegged her as younger than her age of 60.

If McCain and Obama are the nominees, the generationaldivide between them McCain was 24 years old and aNavy aviator when Obama was born will be unmistak-able. Obama has mentioned McCain's long service to thenation in a way that the Republican's strategists see asdeliberately valedictory.

"It's nice that he thinks so much of John McCain and 'hishalf-century of service,'" Rick Davis, McCain's campaign

manager, says. "I don't mind engaging on what that half-century of service has been."

McCain's experience is a significant advantage for him, atleast at the moment: 70% of those surveyed say he hasthe experience necessary to be a good president; 46%say that of Obama.

Obama has an edge among those seeking a new direc-tion for the country. Of those surveyed, 42% called "lead-ership skills and vision" as most important in determin-ing their vote; 22% cited experience.

In the abstract, Americans have reservations aboutelecting a president in his 70s.

Last March, a USA TODAY survey found that four in 10Americans said they wouldn't vote for a 72-year-old whowas nominated by their party and otherwise qualifiedfor the presidency.

In the new survey, older Americans those 55 and older were most likely to express concerns that McCain wastoo old and Obama too young.

If elected, McCain would be the oldest person to assumethe presidency. (Ronald Reagan was 70 when he tookoffice in 1981.) Obama would be the fifth-youngest pres-ident after Theodore Roosevelt, John Kennedy, Bill

Clinton and Ulysses Grant.

Obama could ease concerns about his age by displayingknowledge and wisdom in campaign debates. McCaincould help put to rest concerns about his age by showingvigor on the campaign trail.

Democrats shouldn't count on tapping unease aboutMcCain's age, cautions William Galston of the BrookingsInstitution.

He was an aide to Walter Mondale in 1984, whenReagan's riposte in the second campaign debate "I am

not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent'syouth and inexperience" turned the issue to hisadvantage.

"I've seen this movie before, and it didn't come out rightthe first time," Galston says. "Voters are going to have tojudge for themselves whether someone is either too oldor too young to be president."


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Obama now seen as most electableOnly 46% say he has needed experience

By Susan PageUSA TODAY

The sense that Democratic presidential candidate BarackObama is more electable than Hillary Rodham Clintonhas trumped concerns about whether he has the experi-ence necessary to be a good president, a new USATODAY/Gallup Poll f inds.

The air of inevitability that once surrounded Clinton hasshifted to the Illinois senator, now seen by seven in 10Americans as the likely Democratic nominee.

In a poll taken Thursday through Sunday, Democrats andDemocratic-leaning independents say by 2-1 that Obamahas the better chance of beating the Republican inNovember. That's up from January when only a pluralitythought so. Republicans agree: By more than 3-1, theysay likely GOP nominee John McCain has a better chanceof beating Clinton than Obama.

Those findings hold even though Americans are split,46%-46%, over whether Obama, a first-term senator, hasthe experience to be president. In contrast, Clinton isseen as having enough experience by 2-1, McCain by 3-1.

Still, 29% of those who say Obama doesn't have enoughexperience support him against McCain. Other prioritiesdetermine their votes. Those surveyed rank "leadershipand vision" and positions on issues as more importantthan experience.

"Obama has transitioned from a movement leader to apresidential leader," says Democratic pollster Celinda

Lake, saying he has "crossed the threshold" to beingjudged able to handle the job.

However, Clinton could rebound by winning the Texasand Ohio primaries next week, Lake says. And Obama'slead could make Clinton the underdog, perhaps prompt-ing some voters, particularly baby boomer women, to"give her a second look."

In a general-election matchup among registered voters,Obama leads McCain by 4 percentage points, 49%-45%;McCain leads Clinton 49%-47%.

McCain does better among likely voters, edging Clintonby 4 points, Obama by 1.

The Arizona senator seems to have the Republican nomi-nation in hand, crushing former Arkansas governor MikeHuckabee 61%-23% among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

Among Democrats, Obama has surged to a double-digitlead, thumping Clinton 51%-39%. It is the first timeObama has topped 50% and the first time he has ledClinton outside the survey's margin of error.

However, the 12-point lead is at odds with a separateGallup tracking poll, taken Friday through Sunday, thatgave Obama a 47%-45% edge.

Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, attrib-uted the disparity to sampling error and the contest'svolatility. "There's just a lot of movement," he says."Democrats are not yet totally honed in on exactly whothey're going to vote for."

Clinton strategist Mark Penn concurs. Obama's wide lead"is reflective of momentum from the last series of pri-maries," he says. "We expect the polls to snap back toHillary if we are successful in Ohio and Texas."

The telephone poll of 2,021 adults has a margin of errorof +/- 2 percentage points. The margin of error for the

subsample of 1,009 Democrats is +/- 3 points; for theRepublican sample of 829, it is +/- 4 points


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By David JacksonUSA TODAY

WASHINGTON Ralph Nader is back, and the consumeradvocate says he's no spoiler.

"The two parties have spoiled our country," said Nader,who has launched another White House bid. "They'rethe real spoilers."

Some Democrats beg to differ, saying Nader won justenough votes in Florida in 2000 to deny Al Gore thepresidency, though they don't think he will affect thiselection, given his poor showing in 2004.

"People are simply not going to make that mistakeagain," said Chris Lehane, Gore's press secretary duringthe 2000 campaign against George W. Bush.

In a telephone interview, Nader said he is motivated tomake a third-party run because no one else is addressingcorporate dominance in Washington. He called for a"Jeffersonian revolution" that would rein in thePentagon, provide health insurance for all Americans andgenerate a "living wage" for all workers.

He criticized Democrats Barack Obama and HillaryRodham Clinton and Republican John McCain on issuessuch as the Iraq war. "You don't get the sense thatthey're really going to get us out of there," Nader said.He said that is especially true of McCain, calling him "thecandidate for permanent war and intervention."

Charles Black, senior adviser to the McCain campaign,

called the 2000 result in Florida a "once-in-a-thousand-years scenario." Black added that there's no way to tellwhat would have happened if Nader was not on the bal-lot.

"I think he'll get less than 1% of the vote," Black said."The odds of that being the difference in any one stateare remote."

Lehane, describing himself a "Nader hater," mockedNader's professed concern for the economy, the environ-ment and the labor movement. "His being on the ticketin 2000 has caused the nation to go backward on each ofthose issues," he said. "It just comes down to a guywho's a megalomaniac."

In the 2000 race, Nader racked up 97,488 votes inFlorida, dwarfing the 537 votes that separated Bush and

Gore after a recount and controversial Supreme Courtdecision that stopped the Florida recount effort. Lehanealso said Nader's presence on the ballot in 2000 forcedGore to spend more money and campaign in Oregon andWashington state than the Democratic nominee wouldhave liked.

Nationally, Nader carried about 2.7% of the vote in 2000.Four years later, he won only 0.38% of the vote, thoughhe was on the ballot in 34 states and the District ofColumbia compared with 43 states and the district dur-ing the 2000 race.

Nader said Democrats fought to keep him off the ballotin key states in 2004, but he is ready to fight back thistime. "I don't want to unfurl the white flag," he said.

Donna Brazile, Gore's campaign manager in 2000, said,"Democrats who are hungry for change" are more thansatisfied with Obama or Clinton, leaving nothing morethan "crumbs" for an insurgent such as Nader.

She jokes: "The only person excited today is JohnMcCain, who will no longer be the oldest person in therace."

Nader turns 74 on Wednesday. McCain is 71.

Nader's candidacy rankles DemocratsSome blame him for Gore's loss in 2000


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Ready on Day One?None of the top three contenders for president has ever run a government ora business. The question now: How much does that really matter?

By David JacksonUSA TODAY

WASHINGTON Ready, or not?

Democratic presidential hopefuls Hillary Rodham Clintonand Barack Obama and Republican John McCain all boastabout their preparation and credentials for the OvalOffice and their ability to, as Clinton has called it, be"ready on Day One to solve our problems."

In South Texas last week, the New York senator urgedvoters "to think who you want to have in the WhiteHouse answering the phone at 3 o'clock in the morningwhen some crisis breaks out somewhere in the world."McCain said in Columbus, Ohio, "I'm not the youngestcandidate, but I am the most experienced."

And Obama said in Austin that his "cumulative experi-ence," including as a community organizer in Chicago, "is

the reason that I have the capacity to bring peopletogether" and lead the nation.

Maybe so, but the three leading contenders for presidenthave less executive grounding than anyone elected tothe White House in nearly a half-century. Each candidatehas scored impressive achievements in life, but none hasrun a city or state, a small business or large corporation or any bureaucracy larger than their Senate staffs andcampaign teams.

The crux of Clinton's campaign against Obama for theDemocratic nomination centers on whether the 46-year-

old, first-term senator from Illinois is ready to be presi-dent. In recent days, McCain, 71, has taken a similar line,calling Obama "dangerously naive."

The debate is sure to continue into the fall over whatexperience is essential before taking on the job of man-aging the government, negotiating with Congress, com-manding the armed forces, mobilizing public support athome and responding to crises abroad.

What sort of president would each contender be on DayOne? And how are voters supposed to figure that out?

The Senate, home base for all three, is a better place tonurture presidential ambitions than to train for theWhite House, says Stanley Renshon, a political scientistat the City University of New York and psychoanalystwho has written books on the presidencies of BillClinton and George W. Bush. The White House and theCongress often demand different skills and styles, hesays.

"As a senator, you're sitting around in a committee ormaking a Senate speech and if you say, 'We ought to doX' and it turns out you should have done Y, you bury thespeech or nuance it with another speech," Renshon says."You have command responsibility as president. Whenyou decide to send troops or not to send troops, that's areal commitment in terms of consequences."

He says voters haven't focused on the readiness issue Clinton's questions about Obama's experience haven'tnoticeably stalled his momentum but predicts theyeventually will turn to it. "Right now, people haven'treally started to concentrate on the hard choices they'llhave to make to trust" the candidates as potential presi-dents.

So far, the political watchword in the 2008 campaignhasn't been experience; it's been change. The candidateswith the most executive experience didn't make it to thefinal rounds of primaries and caucuses amongRepublicans, Mitt Romney, a former CEO and

Massachusetts governor who ran the 2002 WinterOlympics, and among Democrats, Bill Richardson. Heserved in Congress, in Bill Clinton's Cabinet and at theUnited Nations before becoming governor of NewMexico.

"In my view, because the relationship between theCongress and (President Bush) has been so dysfunction-al, voters basically saw experience as a negative factor,"Richardson says. "They wanted something new and dif-


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ferent. Voters wanted an inspirational type of candidatewho was perceived to be a non-politician. I tried to

weave 'change' and 'experience' as my mantra, but it justdidn't work."

Before the Iowa caucuses, Richardson ran three wry, 30-second TV ads that showed him at a mock job interview.

"OK, 14 years in Congress, U.N. ambassador, secretary ofEnergy, governor of New Mexico, negotiated with dicta-tors," a bored middle manager behind a desk said, clearlyunimpressed as he thumbed through Richardson's appli-cation.

"So what makes you think you can be president?"

Mr. Government' failsThe obtuse interviewer may have had a point.Predictions about presidential performance even forcandidates with impressive backgrounds are notori-ously unreliable, says historian and presidential biogra-pher Robert Dallek.

"There are so many presidents with a great deal of expe-rience who failed miserably," Dallek says. "Think first ofall of James Buchanan, 1857 to 1861, from the run-up tothe Civil War so experienced that they called him 'Mr.

Government' and now invariably listed as one of theworst presidents in the country's history."

Buchanan had been a member of the House and Senate,secretary of State and minister to Great Britain. As presi-dent, however, he did little to respond when Southernstates began to secede from the Union.

Buchanan's successor was Abraham Lincoln, a prairielawyer who served eight years in the Illinois Legislatureand one term in the U.S. House. "He had next to noexperience at all," Dallek says, "and now is seen as prob-ably the greatest president in the country's history."Voters have to assess for themselves a candidate's judg-ment, character and common sense, but "it really is acrapshoot," he says. "Experience is fine, but does it guar-antee anything? Not by any stretch of the imagination."

Even running a smart, disciplined campaign offers noassurances of competence. Ronald Reagan, widelyviewed as one of the most consequential post-World

War II presidents, dumped his top campaign staff in 1980after struggling in the opening Iowa caucuses. Jimmy

Carter led a shrewd, streamlined campaign for the job in1976 and then had a difficult presidency and wasousted by Reagan after one term.

Reading the cluesThere are clues to what sort of president the currentcontenders would be from what they've said and whatthey've done:

uMcCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, toutshis service to the nation since he took an oath of alle-giance as an entering midshipman at the U.S. Naval

Academy at Annapolis at age 17. He was a Navy aviatorand a POW during the Vietnam War, returning to servefor a year as commanding officer of a Navy trainingsquadron with more than 1,000 servicemembers anexperience he cited in a candidates' debate in Californialast month when asked about his leadership credentials.

An Arizona senator for more than two decades, he hasbeen chairman of the Commerce Committee and a lead-ing voice on national security issues. He's also known forbucking Republican orthodoxy and working across partylines, one reason the most conservative elements of hisparty have been cool to his campaign.

For all his experience, McCain has acknowledged that hedoesn't know much about the economy, which is themost important issue worrying Americans, according toa USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken this month.

"The issue of economics is not something I've under-stood as well as I should," he told reporters in Decemberwhile campaigning in New Hampshire. He joked, "I've got(former Federal Reserve chairman Alan) Greenspan'sbook."

Although McCain's campaign has done well lately, it hadto recover from an implosion last summer when his topaides left, his poll standing slumped and his campaignbank accounts were mostly exhausted.

uClinton, 60, has displayed her mastery of the details ofdomestic and foreign policy in a string of campaigndebates. During eight years as first lady, she representedthe United States in visits to 80 countries. In seven yearsas a senator from New York, she's worked on issues


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from veterans benefits to farm aid, sometimes inalliances with Republicans, and served on the ArmedServices Committee.

She describes herself as a strong manager who couldride herd on the sprawling federal bureaucracy in con-trast, she says, to Obama.

"I do think that being president is the chief executiveofficer," she said at a debate in Las Vegas last month. "Irespect what Barack said about setting the vision, settingthe tone, bringing people together. But I think you have

to be able to manage and run the bureaucracy. You'vegot to pick good people, certainly, but you have to holdthem accountable every single day."

Obama and others say she failed in her chief executiveinitiative as first lady. Her management of a health caretask force early in her husband's presidency produced acontroversial overhaul plan that went nowhere.

uObama says he has proved his good judgment byopposing the Iraq invasion from the start, in contrast toClinton and McCain. He describes himself as an inspira-tional leader who can bring opposing forces together toget things done better than "this same old cast of charac-ters" in Washington. He doesn't see the president asbeing "an operating officer," he says, and would rely onstrong advisers to manage the details.

"Now, being president is not making sure that schedulesare being run properly or the paperwork is being shuf-fled effectively," he said at the Las Vegas debate. "It

involves having a vision for where the country needs togo."

Even so, Clinton and McCain say Obama offers moresoaring rhetoric than solid results and question whetherhe can claim significant legislative accomplishments oradequate experience.


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He served eight years in the Illinois Legislature and hasbeen in the U.S. Senate for three. That's less high-level

government experience than any president since DwightEisenhower, whose background was in the military.

The five-star general was supreme commander of alliedforces in Europe during World War II.

Lincoln or Hoover?"Maybe (Obama) is Lincoln; maybe he's (the belea-guered Herbert) Hoover. There's no way to tell inadvance," says David Frum, a White House speechwriterat the beginning of Bush's tenure who wrote an accountof his early presidency, The Right Man. However, that'sprobably not the decisive question, Frum says.

"Americans don't vote for the guy with the most experi-ence. If that was true, (Richard) Nixon would havedefeated (John) Kennedy in 1960," Frum says. Instead,voters want candidates to meet a threshold of readinessthat makes them an acceptable risk to elect as president."What they seem to do is decide, 'Do you have enough?'"

Little time to learn the ropesThe question of readiness matters because presidents

often face unexpected challenges in their first weeks andmonths in office, before there's been much time toinstall a staff or learn the ropes.

Less than three months after taking office in 1961,Kennedy approved an invasion of Cuba by anti-Castroforces that had been planned during the Eisenhoweradministration. The Bay of Pigs venture failed disastrous-ly and raised doubts among world leaders about theyoung American president.

Less than four months after taking office, Harry Trumanapproved dropping atomic bombs on two Japanese cities

the culmination of a nuclear weapons program hehadn't even been told about as vice president. Six dayslater, after an immediate death toll estimated at morethan 100,000, Japan surrendered. World War II was over.

It's possible no one can be fully prepared for the velocityof the presidency, a point some presidents and their

closest advisers acknowledge after they've made it there.

Bill Clinton had been Arkansas governor for 12 years andhad been a leading figure in national debates overdomestic policy issues. Even so, after he became presi-dent in 1993, he quickly became enmeshed in contro-versies over gays in the military and the White Housetravel office, among other things. Only after stunning set-backs in the 1994 congressional elections -- Democratslost control of the House and Senate did he seem tofind his footing as president.

George W. Bush had been Texas governor for six years,CEO of oil industry ventures and managing partner ofbaseball's Texas Rangers before moving into the OvalOffice in 2001 an "MBA president" who would bringcorporate decision-making to the job. Less than eightmonths later, he had to deal with the Sept. 11 attacks.

His job approval rating hit a historic high of 90% in theaftermath, but Bush has seen Americans' assessment ofhis presidency sour amid questions over whether thewar in Iraq was necessary. His job approval rating was33% in the latest USA TODAY poll.

"The difference between being president and virtuallyany other job running a company or being in theCongress or in the Senate or even being a governor isthe breadth and rapidity of decisions that come at you,"says John Podesta, who was Bill Clinton's chief of staff.Podesta heads a think tank, the Center for AmericanProgress.

"You need to both be able to chart a course that empha-sizes your priorities but (also) be able to handle andmanage things that you never even thought of that are

coming at you from left field," Podesta says.

"Stuff just happens."


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1. Make a list of your top five issues in this election. Using the links to the RNC, DNC and individual candidate web-

sites listed in Additional Resources section of this case study, determine each candidates position on your issues.

Hold mini-debates on a variety of election-year issues where each participant must use only the information

available on a candidates website to defend his or her position.

2. Create an online ad campaign or YouTube video that would espouse the best way to handle the conflict over

Michigan and Florida given the DNCs decision to strip them of their delegates after they disobeyed party rules

and changed their primary dates. Make sure it addresses any sense of disenfranchisement that voters in these

two states may feel, as well as concerns that any changes to the DNCs decision after the voting has already taken

place would unfairly benefit or harm either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

3. Recently, Hillary Clinton has accused the media of giving Barack Obama a free ride. As suggested in the Election

2008 site, create a list of bias and/or neutral language used in the media that would either support or contradict

her assertions.

Critical Inquiry:

Future Implications:1. Belying the customary truism that money is as important as message in political campaigns, front-runner John

McCain nearly ran out of money early in the campaign and Mike Huckabee had relatively little to run on from thestart. On the Democratic side, however, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have had strong financial supportand set fund-raising records. Why is it that a strong financial position in the primary seems not to have benefitedcandidates on the Republican side of the equation? How might this disparity play out in the general election?Which side is most likely to benefit?

2. Whoever wins the White House in November will almost certainly come from the ranks of the Senate, the firsttime that's happened since John F. Kennedy in 1960. How might this relatively equal footing (Senator vs. Senator)impact the dynamics of this election? What role do you expect Senate voting records to play in each partys cam-paign strategy?

3. Our next president will be the first to take the oath of office during an ongoing war since Richard Nixon in 1969.Contrast the leading candidates positions on the war in Iraq. How will their positions impact their electability in

November? Do you see an end to this war in 2009? Why or why not?


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Voices Extension:The questions and activities below utilize USA TODAY's Voices initiative to help you and your fellow students learnabout, debate and inspire action on issues of importance in our country and world.

The Voices website (voices.usatoday.com) provides information and tools you can use to get discussions, forums ordebates going on any number of important topics.

1. Using the Voices toolkit (voices.usatoday.com), plan an activity or event that would enable students to betterunderstand the leading candidates positions on important issues and provide venues for students to channel theirinterest in a particular issue into on-the-ground or on-the-web support for a candidate.

2. A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a nationalelection. Bill Vaughan. As suggested in the Voices Election 2008 website (voices.usatoday.com), create aVideocast (including music, images, and voice over) on one or more changes to the elections /campaigns that

would increase Gen Millennium interest and help promote a more involved electorate in the coming years.

v USA TODAY Resources:v Political News: U.S. Politics, Election 2008 & Presidential Candidates

www.usatoday.com/news/politics/default.htm

v Track delegateswww.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/delegate-tracker.htm

v Track pollswww.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker

v The Democratic Partywww.democrats.org

v The Republican National Committeewww.gop.com

v Hillary Clintonwww.hillaryclinton.com

v Barack Obamawww.barackobama.com

v John McCainwww.johnmccain.com

v Ralph Naderwww.votenader.com

Additional Resources:

Documents

USA TODAY Collegiate Case Study: Election 2008: Presidential Primaries