Prepared by EDGARDO E. DAGDAGProfessor and Assistant to the Deanfor Academic Affairs, Asian Center, UP Diliman *

Clinton and Bush (41) strategy toward Asia Bush (43) strategy toward Asia Obama pivot to Asia*

East Asia Strategy Report of the DoD 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997 (Clinton and Bush Administration Security Policy)

COMMON STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES (Bush and Clinton)Prevent rise of regional hegemonyMaintain strong forward presence to deter conflict in Korea and preserve regional stability.Ensure a level playing field regarding access to markets of Asia. Maintain freedom of navigation.Halt the proliferation of nuclear weaponsPromote liberal democracy.

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The United States is an "Asian power; it had vital interests in the region.The key to US strategy is its bilateral alliances in the region (south Korea, Japan, Phil, Thailand).Preventing the rise of a regional hegemon is a fundamental strategic principle of the US.The US military presence provides regional stability, and that regional stability is the sine qua non for economic development.The US is committed to deterring a North Korean invasion of South Korea.The US is willing to use the threat of military force to prevent Taiwan from being coerced or intimidated by China.The US is committed to fostering liberal democracy, freedom of the seas and free trade.*

The Clinton administration was ambivalent over whether Japan or China was more important.The Clinton administration was too timid or too ambivalent about encouraging Japan to become more involved in security issues in East Asia.The Clinton administration was unconcerned about the security implications of the rise of China and the potential threat that a modernizing PLA posed to Taiwan in the mid-term and to US interests in the longer term.The Clinton administration was too anxious to engage North Korea, and too willing to be manipulated by Pyongyang with very little to show for years of dialogues other than a flawed "Agreed Framework

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During the campaign, Bush characterized China as a "strategic competitor; on the other hand, Clinton regarded China as a "strategic partner.The White House characterized the US-China relations "candid, constructive and cooperative." (The Chinese only use constructive and cooperative.)Bush supported the entry of China in WTO in Sept. 2001

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During Clinton's eight years, the US govt aggressively sought military-to-military engagement with Beijing. The DoD was proactive.In 1998, President Clinton publicly affirmed the so called Three (3) nos Policy: (1) No support for Taiwan's independence,(2) No support for two Chinas, One China, One Taiwan and (3) no support for Taiwans membership in international organization that require statehood.President Bush introduced "strategic clarity" regarding US intentions should China make an unprovoked attack on Taiwan, by stating that "the US would do whatever it took" should Beijing attack.

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Taiwan is critical for the continued credibility of the US strategic commitments towards East Asia.The US is benefitting from Taiwans economic achievements; in 2007 Taiwan is the US ninth largest trade partner with nearly $65 billion in bilateral trade.Many in the US believes that how China handles Taiwan will be an important measure of how the US and the world will manage the challenges of a rising China.Taiwans evolution from a one party authoritarian state to a multiparty democracy and open society over the past 20 years has also added critical new component to US interest.

Chinas Rise, Challenges and Opportunities, Bersten C. Et.al, 2008.

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The 2000 Armitage Report on Security Policy toward JapanReaffirming and reassuring Japan that the U.S. really values its bilateral alliance with her. America's most important Asian relationship is with Tokyo not Beijing.The US quietly encourages Japan to move away from the prohibition on collective self-defense. This has taken new momentum in the wake of 9/11. In other words, the US encourages Japan to be a more active alliance partner. *

In March 2001, ROK President Kim Dae Jung insisted on visiting Washington very early in the Administration to ensure that Bush will continue Clintons policy of engagement with North Korea. This turned out to be a really bad decision. First Kim Dae Jung came off as lecturing the White House on Nokor. And second, no one either in Seoul or in the Bush Administration appreciated President Bush's personal antipathy toward Nokor(KJI is not fit to lead his country; he is willing to let his people starve, Nokor one of the axis of evil countries, etc.)

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For Clinton, the US has deterred NK's conventional forces for 50 years; there is no rush to solve this. First things first, focus on WMD. The Bush Administration has been more outspoken about this "Axis of Evil" state, and would be pleased if it collapsed tomorrow. The big difference: US under Bush is not willing to talk directly with North Korea to achieve its disarmament objectives.

*(Reuters) - Former U.S. President Bill Clinton made a surprise visit toNorth Koreaand met its reclusive leader on Tuesday to try to win freedom for two jailed American journalists in a move that could re-energize nuclear talks.

The eradication of terrorism is an important policy objective of Pres Bush.Bush declared the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol on Global Warming.He showed a negative attitude towards negotiations on the Protocol for the Biological Conventions on the Prohibition on Biological weapons.He showed a marked reluctance towards ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.US withdrew from the treaty on Anti-Ballistic Missiles Systems

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The US military forces in the region are engaged in the global war on terrorism, and Southeast Asia is a major theatre in this conflict. Southeast Asia has the highest strategic profile among US strategic planners of any time since the end of the Vietnam War because of the large Islamic populations in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, and because Singapore has been such a strong ally in this fight. More than half of the Southeast Asian population are Muslims and are perceived to be critical of the US GWOT.

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1. Japan is the USs most important strategic partner in Asia.2. China is a strategic competitor.3. The US should be clearer in its support of Taiwan.4. The US should have a tougher policy toward North Korea.5. There is uncertainty in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia that requires attention, especially Indonesia.

Michael Muchizuki, US Foreign Policy Towards East AsiaProfessor, George Washington University,2001*

1. There is a perception that because of its global war on terrorism and its military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US has abandoned or did not give much importance to Southeast Asia. It did not accede to the ASEANs Treaty of Amity and Cooperation for Southeast Asia, (TACSEA); and it has been noticeably absent in a number of ARF meetings.2. The US GWOT has antagonized the Muslim population in Southeast Asia.3. Because of the so-called US abandonment, there was a resulting vacuum and this gave China and the ASEAN countries the opportunity to forge closer links. *

US PRESENCE: It plays a key role in preserving peace in Asia.US-JAPAN ALLIANCE : This plays a vital role in helping the US maintain regional security.SOUTH KOREA: There is a need not only to reaffirm the alliance but also to enlarge its focus on issues beyond those specifically tied to security on the Peninsulas.NORTH KOREA: The US shall maintain the goal of achieving complete and verifiable elimination of North Koreas nuclear weapon program.CHINA: There is a need for the US to monitor Chinas growing military capabilities and to press its leadership to end its support for authoritarian regimes like those in Burma, Sudan, Iran and Zimbabwe.

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Highlights of Obamas policy in East Asia- Re-affirming solidarity with regional allies- Reaching out to new regional powers ( such as Indonesia and India)- Continuing a policy of engagement with China.- New approach to free trade: Example; put punitive tariffs on Chinese automobile and light truck tires; pursue American accession to ASEANs Treaty of Amity Cooperation (TAC)- Returning to East Asia- Downsizing the US GWOT by withdrawing from conflict areas like Iraq and Afghanistan

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Obamas pledge to re-engage with the region has been met - - the first head of State to visit the White House was PM Taro Aso of Japan (February 24, 2009) In Feb 2009, Sec. Of State Hilary Clinton had her first overseas trip to Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and China; in July 2009, she visited Thailand and India when she attended the ASEAN Regional Forum.*

East Asia has taken on growing economic importance as a major US trade partnerEast Asia presents security problems as well: (a) nuclear proliferation, (b) unresolved territorial issues, and (c) growing tensions over energy and natural resourcesEmerging states like China and India can not be ignored.Source: East Asian Strategic Review 2011, The United States: The Obama Administration Facing Its second Year of Challenges.*Three (3) PolicyGoals of US:Promotion of Economic growth within the region.2. Structuring stable Security 3. Expansion of Democracy and protection of human rights.

1. The US will deepen its alliance with Japan, ROK, Australia, Thailand and the Philippines2. It will strengthen its ties with emerging states such as India and China as well as with Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore.3. It will view the ASEAN, ARF and EAS as important regional frameworks regarding security affairs (a role that APEC performs regarding economic affairs) and it will actively strengthen its engagement with each of these forums.4. The Obama administration will seek to combine the maintenance and enhancement of its relations with allies and partners with building stable relations with the emerging states and positive participation in regional forums. *

US JAPAN ALLIANCEThe year 2010 marked the 50th year of the US-Japan Security Treaty; The Obama administration views the alliance as the cornerstone of its strategic relations with East Asia. The Obama administration has sought to strengthen the relationship by emphasizing close bilateral ties with the Naoto Kan administration to deal with the regional and global security issues.*Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan bows after giving a speech at the Democratic Party of Japan lawmakers' meeting in Tokyo Friday, Aug. 26, 2011. Kan announced he was resigning after almost 15 months in office.

The US-Japan Roadmap for Realignment Implementation Reaffirming that the Roadmap emphasizes the importance of force reductions and relocation to Guam in relation to the realignment on Okinawa and stipulates that approximately 8,000 III Marine Expeditionary Force personnel and their approximately 9,000 dependents will relocate from Okinawa to Guam by 2014, in a manner that maintains unit integrity, and recognizing that such relocation will realize consolidation and land returns south of Kadena.Regarding the relocation of Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Funtenma, the US and Japan agreed to make efforts both towards relocation of the air base within Okinawa Prefecture and towards a reduction in the economic burden of maintaining the base in Okinawa.

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On territorial disputeRegarding the 7 September incident in which a Chinese fishing boat rammed into a patrol vessel of the Japan Coast Guard in Japanese Territorial water near the Senkaku islands, Secretary Clinton made clear the US position that Article 5 of the Japan US-Defence Treaty also applies to these islands during the JAPAN-US foreign ministerial meeting held in 23 September.

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2010 marked the 60th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. The Obama administration ranked the US-ROK alliance alongside with the US-Japan alliance as central to peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region.

Source: Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/slideshow?articleId=USTRE6AM0YS20101123&slide=1#a=11*

US AND ROKPresident Obama met on June 26, 2010, with ROK President Lee Myung-bak and the two presidents agreed that the transition of wartime operational control on the Korean Peninsula, which during the term of former President Roh was originally scheduled for April 2012, would be extended to December 2015.Strategic Alliance of 2015 would serve as implementation for this transition of wartime operational control, consolidation of U.S. bases into two hubs, tour normalization, and management of U.S.forces in Korea within broader, world-wide mission requirements. The OPCON transition plan envisions South Korea as taking the lead in defense against North Korea as well as in other operational plan requirements

*Source: Center for US-Korea Policy, A project of The Asia Foundation, September 2010.

The US and the ROK continue to seek concrete measures to the complex, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of North Koreas nuclear program.The consultative meeting gave its full support to the ROK position that the March 26 sinking of the ROK patrol vessel Cheonan was caused by the underwater detonation of a North Korea Torpedo; in response to the sinking, the US and the ROK conducted large-scale antisubmarine exercises in July and September.

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Before the meeting, Sec of State Hilary Clinton and Secretary of Defence Gates also visited the Demilitarized Zone, along with ROK Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Yu- Myung-hwan and Defence Minister Kim Tae- oung to display the resolute US-ROK alliance against North Korea.*

The Obama administration is continuing to seek to build a positive, cooperative and comprehensive relationship.President Obamas November 2009 visit to China was marked by a mood of cooperation. However, with the start of 2010, friction clearly began to appear in the bilateral relationship as a result of US arms sales to Taiwan, Googles decision to withdraw from China in reaction to Chinese censorship, and issues relating to the actual value of the Chinese renminbi.*

US AND CHINA

Amidst such circumstances, Hu Jintao attended the April Nuclear Security Summit convened by President Obama.In May, a US delegation of some 200 members, including Secretary Clinton and Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, visited Beijing and took part in a US-China Security and Economic Dialogue, the second such dialogue following talks held at the end of July 2009 in Washington.In addition President Hu was invited to Washington for US-China Summit talks on January 19, 2011, where the leaders displayed a common understanding of the importance of broadening and deepening the two states cooperative relationship in a wide range of areas including economics and security

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The US has been giving attention to the Chinese military growing capabilities regarding anti-access and area denial as well as in space and cyberspace.The US also is increasingly wary regarding remaining territorial conflicts in the South China Seas and higher levels of activity on the part of the Chinese military.Secretary of State Clinton attending the ARF Meeting in Hanoi Vietnam last July 23, stated that the US has national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asias maritime commons, and respect for international law in the South China Sea, and she indicated that the US would contribute positively toward peaceful resolution of territorial conflicts. US-China military to military relationships, which had seen considerable development in 2009, were cut off as part of the Chinese reaction to the January 2010 US decision to sell arm sales to Taiwan.

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Secretary Gates attended the expanded ASEAN conference of defense ministers (the ADMM-Plus Meeting) in early October 2010 where he met with Chinese Minister of National Defense Liang Guanglie and reached an agreement to normalize military exchanges. After the agreement meeting of US and Chinese naval officials responsible for ensuring safety was held in Hawaii on October 17 2010 under the Military Maritine Consultative Agreement (MMCA) exchanges with China as a means of improving mutual understanding between the two militaries and encouraging an accurate communication of ideas and In January 2011 Secretary gates was able to visit China.At the Asian Security Summit (the Shangrila Dialogue) in Singapore in early June 2011, Secretary of Defense Gates responded by stressing the importance of stable, on going military exchanges which were not influenced by the political relations between the US and China and he strongly urged China to resume the exchanges at any rate.

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The dominant function of the USJapan alliance has always been to sustain the US military presence for the American regional and global strategies.The primary role of the USSouth Korea alliance has been to defend South Korea against the threat from North Korea.The USChina relationship is a typical case of strategic coexistence between great powers, which is in essence competitive but will remain cooperative in the foreseeable future out of necessity

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. US Deputy Sec. Of State James Steinberg:- There are rising powers in Asia India and China.- There are allies like South Korea and Japan that are seeking more normal status in the international scene.- There are countries in Asia trying to make their way in a world that presents immense opportunities, as well as problem.- The US can not and should not ignore the aspirations of these countries and the other East Asian countries.

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With the continuing rise of China, there is a shift of global power to East Asia that makes the US role in the region the subject of continuing debate among regional states (even among its traditional allies). The economic woes currently faced by the US is also one reason why regional states in East Asia are looking for alternative security options. US allies and friends need continuing reassurance of support from the US considering its long history of unilateralism.

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How important is East Asia toward America?How important is South East Asia in American strategy in East Asia?Do you think China is strategic competitor or strategic partner to America?What did Obama change in American policy toward Asia? Why?How do you predict American strategy toward Asia in future?*

*East Asia Strategy reports-Security reports of the DoD-1990, 1992 (Bush 41)1995 AND 1997 (CLINTON YEARS)BUSH 43 NSS , QDR REPORT 2002 REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT

QUADRENNIAL DEFFENSE REPORT***

The situation has turned 180 degrees. The Bush DoD team came to office very critical of military engagement for engagements sake, strongly endorsing Congressional restrictions put in place during the later Clinton yearsThen the EP-3 incident happened. DoD terminated virtually all military contacts, and has only grudgingly begun to review a handful of military exchanges. The Chinese have become the supplicants, anxious to renew military to military relations

(This was not mere grandstanding, the year 2000 Chinese White Paper on Taiwan raises the potential of an attack for reason other than an overt provocation, it suggests that if Taiwan does not get on with reunification discussions Chinese patience might run out and Beijing would resort to force.)

The EP3 incident also coincided with the US decesion to ship to export arms based on the Taiwans Relations Act of the US, but the US decided to withdraw the idea in order not to escalate tensions with China. But later it finally authorizes an arms package including four kidd-class destroyer. Eight diesel designed counter blockade and invasions, 12 P-3c patrol aircraft and unknown number of MH-53 E minewweeping helicopters in 2001. However it deffreed to export of the Aegis system 9specifically, export of the Arleight Burke class destoryer so as not to futher increase the tensions with China esp after the EP -3E incident.

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In this Oct. 10, 2007, photo, Taiwan's U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries pass during the Republic of China National Day parade in Taipei, Taiwan. China has abruptly canceled a series of military and diplomatic contacts with the United States to protest a planned multi-billion dollar U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, American officials told The Associated Press on Monday, Oct. 6, 2008.

Maintaining the stability and viability of Taiwan economy has become important to the health of the global and american economies

To many Us strategist, the Taiwan issue is therefore not about containing China, keeping China divided or preventing Chinas rise, as many Chinese asserts, but about ensuring that as it does rise, Beijng conforms to its own stated goal of doing so peacefully, through dialogue rather than threats, through win win solutions rahter than coersive force,

In 1987, Chiang Kai-sheks son, Chiang Ching-kou lifted martial law and in 1998, the Koumintang allowed the formation of opposition parties. Competetive elections were held and direct election of the President of Republic of China began in 1996. Taiwans authoritarian past is a distant memory.

The development of Taiwans democracy led Bill Clinton administration to clarify US policy by requiring not only that any resolution be peaceful and non coersive but also more specifically , that it be acceptable to the people of Taiwan, The George W Bush administration seemed to accomodate the Chinese concerrns about the one sided nature of this statement by modifying it to say that any resolution be acceptable to the people both sides of the Taiwan Strait

*******The agrement was signed in 2009. february.

Marine Corps Air Station Futenma is a United States Marine Corps base located in Ginowan City, about 10 km northeast of Naha City, on the island of Okinawa. It is a home to the 1st Marine Aircraft Wing and has been a U.S. military airbase since the island was occupied following the Battle of Okinawa in 1945. Marine Corps pilots and aircrew are assigned to the base for training and providing air support to other land-based Marines in Okinawa.***At the 42nd ROK and US Consultative Meeting in Washington on October 8, 2010, Secretary Gates stated: we are committed to providing extended deterrence to the ROK using the full Range of American military might: from our nuclear umbrella to conventional strike and the ballistic missile defense

*As the cold war ended and we have encountered issues and behaviours *