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U.S. Russia Business Council 18 th Annual Meeting October 21, 2010 San Francisco Panel Discussion on The HighTech Dimensions of Energy Lucian Pugliaresi Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org

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2 World to Face Large Scale Shortages in Refining Capacity No Major Large Scale Additions Likely in Petroleum Reserves (peak oil) prices will rise to well over $100/bbl. U.S. to Face Natural Gas Shortages Massive Commitment to Domestic LNG Receiving Facilities Latin America has been Fully Explored Conventional Wisdom -- Just 5 Short Years Ago

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Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org

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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org

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World LNG and Unconventional Gas Production 6Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org

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U.S. Proven Gas Reserves Since 1980 7Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org

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8 The Peak Oil Problem: How Serious?

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9 Permian Basin Testing Hubbard-Method Predictions for Reserves and Production (Billions of Barrels) Cumulative Discoveries 17.6 27.9 35.2 Percent Attributable to 1950 85%86%84% Cumulative production as of 19-27.528.5-30.535.8-37.5 Year 2000 production projected in: (mb/d) 162-479 326-479 910(actual) 1964 1982 2000 Source: EPRINC, October 2006. Does the Hubbard Method Provide a Reliable Means for Predicting Future Oil Production, Richard Nehring, October 2006, Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. | 1031 31st St, NW Washington, DC 20007 | 202.944.3339 | www.eprinc.org

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