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Energy Briefing:US Petroleum Weekly
Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 7, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Crude Oil Production & Petroleum Imports 3Petroleum Imports & Exports 4Petroleum Products Supplied 5-6Rig Count 7Petroleum Usage 8-9Crude Oil Production & Imports 10Petroleum Inventories 11Oil Prices 12-13Misc. 14-19Large Speculators: Crude Oil 20Large Speculators: Gasoline 21
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1/1
US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION(million barrels per day, weekly, nsa)
Total (9.2)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 1.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 174
6
8
10
12
14
16
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1/1
US IMPORTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS(million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa)
Crude Oil & Petroleum Products (9.5)
Crude Oil Including SPR (7.8)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 2.
Crude Oil Production & Petroleum Imports
Page 3 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 170
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1/1
US IMPORTS & EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS(million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa)
Crude Oil & Petroleum ProductsImports(9.5)
Exports(4.4)
Net Imports (5.1)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 3.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1/1
US EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS(million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa)
Crude Oil & Petroleum Products (4.4)
Crude Oil (0.5)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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com
Figure 4.
Petroleum Imports & Exports
Page 4 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1716
17
18
19
20
21
22
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1/1
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
Total* (19.7)
* Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products.Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 5.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 177.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
1/1
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS; GASOLINE DEMAND(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
TotalDemand (9.2)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 6.
Petroleum Products Supplied
Page 5 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 172.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
1/1
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
Distillate (3.9)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 7.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 176.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
1/1
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
Total LessGasoline &Distillates (6.7)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 8.
Petroleum Products Supplied
Page 6 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
1/1
BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE RIG COUNT(units)
Total US (698)Gas (162)Oil (536)
Source: Baker Hughes Inc.
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Figure 9.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 173
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1/1
1/1
BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE OIL RIG COUNT& US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION
Rig Count(units)
Production(million barrels per day, nsa)
Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and US Department of Energy.
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Figure 10.
Rig Count
Page 7 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5US PETROLEUM USAGE(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
Values shown are prior years weekscomparable to latest years week 01/01/16
2016 (19.7)2015 (20.2)2014 (19.7)2013 (18.9)2012 (18.4)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 11.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.6
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.6US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: GASOLINE DEMAND(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
Values shown are prior years weekscomparable to latest years week 01/01/16
2016 (9.0)2015 (9.3)2014 (8.8)2013 (8.4)2012 (8.6)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 12.
Petroleum Usage
Page 8 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4US DISTILLATE USAGE(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
Values shown are prior years weekscomparable to latest years week 01/01/16
2016 (3.5)2015 (3.9)2014 (3.6)2013 (3.6)2012 (3.8)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 13.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5US PETROLEUM USAGE MINUSGASOLINE & DISTILLATE USAGE(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
Values shown are prior years weekscomparable to latest years week 01/01/16
2016 (7.2)2015 (7.0)2014 (7.2)2013 (6.9)2012 (6.0)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 14.
Petroleum Usage
Page 9 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016
5.25.45.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.67.88.08.28.48.68.89.09.29.49.69.810.010.210.410.610.811.011.2
5.25.45.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.67.88.08.28.48.68.89.09.29.49.69.8
10.010.210.410.610.811.011.2
US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
Values shown are prior years weekscomparable to latest years week 01/01/16
2016 (9.1)2015 (9.0)2014 (8.0)
2013 (6.9)2012 (5.8)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 15.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0US CRUDE OIL IMPORTS INCLUDING SPR(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
Values shown are prior years weekscomparable to latest years week 01/01/16
2016 (7.9)2015 (7.4)2014 (7.8)2013 (8.1)2012 (9.0)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 16.
Crude Oil Production & Imports
Page 10 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
510
530
550
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
510
530
550US PETROLEUM STOCKS: CRUDE OIL*(million barrels)
Values shown are prior years weekscomparable to latest years week 01/01/16
2016 (482.3)2015 (382.4)2014 (357.9)2013 (361.3)2012 (334.6)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.* Excluding US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
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Figure 17.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016
195
205
215
225
235
245
255
195
205
215
225
235
245
255US PETROLEUM STOCKS: FINISHED MOTOR GASOLINE(million barrels)
Values shown are prior years weekscomparable to latest years week 01/01/16
2016 (232.0)2015 (237.2)2014 (227.0)2013 (233.1)2012 (223.8)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 18.
Petroleum Inventories
Page 11 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201625
50
75
100
125
150
25
50
75
100
125
150
1/6
CRUDE OIL PRICES*(dollars per barrel)
Nearby FuturesBrent Crude (34.2)
WTI Crude (33.3)
* Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 19.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1/6
CRUDE OIL PRICES*(dollars per barrel)
Nearby FuturesBrent Minus WTI (0.3)
* Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 20.
Oil Prices
Page 12 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV2014 2015 2016
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1/5
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per barrel)
Nearby (36.42)
3-month (37.77)
6-month (40.29)
1-year (44.14)
2-year (49.10)
Source: Haver Analytics.* Settlement price.
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Figure 21.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1/5
BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*(dollars per barrel)
2-Year Minus Nearby (12.68)
Source: Haver Analytics.* Settlement price.
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Figure 22.
Oil Prices
Page 13 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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10
20
30
40
12/26
0
1
2
12/26
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
10
20
30
12/26
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810
20
30
40
50
12/26
INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(4-week ma, sa)
Texas NorthDakota
Ohio Pennsylvania
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 23.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201720
40
60
80
100
120
20
40
60
80
100
120
12/26
INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: MAJOR OIL-PRODUCING STATES(4-week ma, thousands, sa)
Total*
* Includes Texas, North Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 24.
Misc.
Page 14 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Nov
US CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS EXPORTS & IMPORTS(billion dollars, saar)
Exports
Imports
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 25.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Nov
US IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS(billion dollars, saar)
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 26.
Misc.
Page 15 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 165
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Nov
MINING, OIL FIELD & GAS MACHINERY(billion dollars, saar)
Orders
Shipments
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Figure 27.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1710
15
20
25
30
10
15
20
25
30
1/1
US CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES / PETROLEUM USAGE
Source: Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 28.
Misc.
Page 16 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 183
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
1/2
RAILCAR LOADINGS & US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION
Railcar Loadings:Chemicals & Petroleum Products(thousand units, 26-wa)
US Crude Oil Field Production(million barrels per day, nsa)
Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Energy.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20163.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
1/1
US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION(million barrels per day, weekly)
Seasonally Adjusted (9.1)
Not Seasonally Adjusted (9.2)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 30.
Misc.
Page 17 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
12/25
12/25
US CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION BY KEY STATES(million barrels per day, 4-week ma)
North Dakota (1.2)
Texas (3.7)
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 31.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1/1
SepBAKER HUGHES ACTIVE OIL RIG COUNT& US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION
Rig Count: Gas(units)
Natural Gas Production(trillion cubic feet, 12-month average)
Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and Oil Gas Journal.
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Figure 32.
Misc.
Page 18 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
Nov
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: NATURAL RESOURCES INDUSTRIES(thousands, sa)
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 33.
Misc.
Page 19 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
12/29
WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS(contracts of million barrels)
Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.
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Figure 34.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
1/1
WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS(as a percent of US crude oil inventories*)
Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.* Excluding US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
Large Speculators: Crude Oil
Page 20 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
12/29
GASOLINE FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS(contracts of 42,000 US gallons)
Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.
yarden
i.com
Figure 36.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
1/1
GASOLINE FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS(as a percent of US gasoline inventories)
Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.
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com
Figure 37.
Large Speculators: Gasoline
Page 21 / January 7, 2016 / Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Weekly www.yardeni.com
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