U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:IMG_3758_view_north_from_French_King_Bridge.jpg

The Connecticut River looking north in the early evening, from the French King Bridge at the Erving-Gill town line in Western Massachusetts.

Presentation to the New York Water Science Center

December 9, 2009

Stacey Archfield, Ph.D.

Research Hydrologist, USGS

MA-RI Water Science Center

FUNDING SOURCES:

Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection

U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Water Program

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:

Richard Vogel, Tufts University

Peter Steeves and Sara Brandt, USGS

Stephen Garabedian and Peter Weiskel, USGS

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The importance of daily streamflow information

Photographs from: http://www.oceanriver.org/images/WestfieldRiverRussellMA_000.jpg; http://image.tutorvista.com/content/ecosystem/food-web-terrestrial-aquatic-ecosystem.jpeg,http://www.labsafety.com/Nalgene-Environmental-Sample-Bottles_24545938/, and http://jphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/ww2.jpg.

USER-SPECIFIED TIME PERIOD

ST

RE

AM

FLO

W

Unimpacted streamflow

Instream-flow targets

Quantity of water available for withdrawal

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Project objectives

Develop an easy-to-use, screening-level, decision-support tool to estimate continuous unregulated and regulated daily streamflow at ungaged locations in Massachusetts

POINT-AND-CLICK GIS USER-INTERFACE COUPLED WITH

COMMONLY-USED SPREADSHEET AND DATABASE SOFTWARE

TECHNICALLY-DEFENSIBLE APPROACH REQUIRING

FEW PARAMETERS

USER CAN TEST WATER-MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS BY ADJUSTING THE PERIOD

OF ANALYSIS AND CHANGING INPUT DATA

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The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator(Decision-support tool)

Regulated streamflowUnregulated streamflow

State-wide water-use databaseFlow-duration curve

EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY

ST

RE

AM

FL

OW

TIME

Flow series from index gage

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EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITY

ST

RE

AM

FL

OW

Estimate flow-duration curve by solving the regression equations

Solve regression equations that relate measurable basin characteristics to

flow-duration-curve statistics

TIME

ST

RE

AM

FL

OW

Convert the estimated flow-duration to a time series of streamflow by use of

an index gage

Area = XX.X mi2

ln(Q50) = a1 + b1 * (ln(Area))

Estimate basin characteristics

Estimate hydrograph

Sources: Ries and Friesz (1999), Fennessey (1994), Hughes and Smakhtin (1994)

Estimating unregulated daily streamflow

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Selection of an index gage using geostatistics

Archfield, S.A. and Vogel, R.M., in review, The Map-Correlation Method, submitted to Water Resources Research

Each point on the map is the Pearson’s r correlation between the natural logarithms of the streamflows at BURL and another gage.

By kriging the correlations, we obtain a correlation map for southern New England, which can be used to determine the correlation between any stream location and the BURL gage.

Natural log (Q AT BURL)

Natural log (Q AT HUBB)

EXAMPLE

R2 = 0.839

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Now suppose we want to select the gage most correlated with our ungaged site.

Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the BURL gage = 0.845

Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the OLDS gage = 0.793

Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the GREC gage = 0.882

We can create a correlation map for each of the potential index gages in our study area.

We can obtain kriged estimates of correlation between our ungaged site and each of the index-streamflow gages in the study area.

R2 = 0.845 R2 = 0.793 R2 = 0.882

Selection of an index-streamflow gage -- continued

We will use the GREC gage to transform the flow-duration

curve to a time series of flows.

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The MA SYE tool estimates daily mean streamflows from October 1, 1960 through September 30, 2004.

Streamflow gages used in the analysis

Each site was jack-knifed to compare estimated and observed streamflows.

Best

Worst

There are 66 gages identified as least-altered in southern New England.

Most sites have no major water withdrawals, discharges or return flows in the basin and the predominant land cover is forest.

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Observed and estimated streamflow

From Archfield and others (2009)

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Observed and estimated streamflow (best and worst)

Burlington Brook near Burlington, CT (Worst case)

Hubbard River near West Hartland, CT (Best case)

ST

RE

AM

FL

OW

, IN

CF

SS

TR

EA

MF

LO

W,

IN C

FS

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The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator(Decision-support tool)

Regulated streamflowUnregulated streamflow

State-wide water-use databaseFlow-duration curve

EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY

ST

RE

AM

FL

OW

TIME

Flow series from index gage

12 of 20Source for STRMDEPL: Zarriello, P.J. and Barlow, P.M. (2000) and Jenkins, C.T. (1968)

If aquifer properties are known, the user has the option to apply the program STRMDEPL, an analytical solution that is used to include the time-varying effects of a ground-water withdrawal or discharge on streamflow

Regulated streamflowt = Unregulated streamflowt

(Ground-water dischargest)

(Return flowst)

– (Surface-water withdrawalst)

–(Ground-water withdrawalst)

Estimating regulated streamflow

WELL 1

WELL 2

WWTP 1

Ungaged location

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Limitations Regulated streamflow estimates are limited by the availability and quality

of the water-use data

Water-use type

Number of points in state-wide water-use

databaseTime resolution of

reported data Spatial resolution of reported data

Public-water-supply withdrawal 2360 Annual data Source-level water-use information

Public-water-supply withdrawal greater than 100,000 gallons per day 1420 Annual data Source-level water-use information

Non-public-water-supply withdrawal greater than 100,000 gallons per day 1743 Annual data System-level water-use information

Ground-water discharge greater than 15,000 gallons per day 204 Monthly data Source-level water-use information

National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) discharge 854 Monthly data Source-level water-use information

Estimates of regulated streamflow do not include other factors that have an effect on streamflow: land-use change, surface-water reservoirs, storm-water returns, and septic discharge

Method requires coincident ground- and surface-water divides- Existing ground-water-flow models are used to compute streamflow at fixed

stream locations where divides are not coincident From Archfield and others (2009)

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The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator(Decision-support tool)

Regulated streamflowUnregulated streamflow

State-wide water-use databaseFlow-duration curve

EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY

ST

RE

AM

FL

OW

TIME

Flow series from index gage

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Point-and-click GIS user-interface

Users begin by opening an ESRI ArcMap document and locating the stream of interest.

Users also have the option to export a map and shapefile of the study area.

The user clicks on the stream location to delineate an on-the-fly watershed, compute basin characteristics, and query the water-use database for points within the watershed.

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Navigating the tool

A master Microsoft Excel file guides the user through the

post-processing, graphing and reporting of the results.

All relevant data is stored in a user-specified location and project folder.

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Scenario testing: Instream-flow targets, period of analysis

Estimated streamflows can

also be compared to monthly

instream-flow targets.

%xx

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Results

Results are summarized

for the user in a printable

2-page format.

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Application: Mapping streamflow alteration and water availability

Estimated annual flow alteration Estimated August flow alteration

Weiskel, P.K., Brandt, S.L., DeSimone, L.A., Ostiguy, L.J., and Archfield, S.A., 2010, Indicators of streamflow alteration, habitat fragmentation, impervious cover, and water quality for Massachusetts stream basins, USGS Scientific Investigations Report, 2009-5272

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Application: Relating streamflow alteration to fish data

Project contact for “Fish, Flow & Habitat”: Todd Richards, MDFW; Peter Weiskel, USGS

Per

cent

fluv

ial s

peci

alis

tsPercent net flow alteration (August) for nested basins

DRAFT < 15 %

> 15 %

Fish-sampling locations

Streamflow alteration

Imperviousness

In cooperation with:

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Contact Information

Stacey Archfield

Massachusetts-Rhode Island WSC

US Geological Survey

sarch@usgs.gov

(508) 490-5072

Peter Weiskel

Massachusetts-Rhode Island WSC

US Geological Survey

pweiskel@usgs.gov

(508) 490-5026