Urgent Challenge and Adaptation Considerations for Thailand and

Mekong Region(A View from a Climate Generalist)

Anond SnidvongsSoutheast Asia Regional Center for

Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START)

Chulalongkorn University

(www.start.or.th, www.start.org)

How can we ensure that precise information about climate science, climate risk, and vulnerability are communicated to appropriate recipients in the right time, right format, and right context

An Urgent Challenge for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Some Practical Considerations for Appropriate Adaptations

• Various misconceptions about climate, climate change and risks

• Roles of the information providers• Information relay and recipients • Some formal and informal capacity building initiatives

in Thailand

Some Misconceptions

On climate science principles• Differentiation and relation between climate and

weather • Focus only on climate means and less on extremes,

ranges and frequencies• Globally (including GHG) forcing versus

locally/regionally driven climate change/variability

On ways to address the climate problem• Climate change to be addressed as its own domain• Climate change is an ‘environmental’ problem• Global warming can be ‘solved’ by mitigation

Changes in Weather Statistics

(a) Change in climate mean (b) Change in climate frequency (c) Change in climate extreme range

(a + c) Increased climate mean and range but same frequency

(a + b + c) Increased climate mean, range and frequency

Climate change may be of any of these combinations

Some Locally/Regionally Driven Changes

Urban heat island effectsAerosol effects on air quality, rainfall, etc.

Land use/cover changes and impacts on regional weather and water balance

Bangkok MODIS

Adelaide AVHRR and TRMM

Some of these local/regional forcings may be related to GHG driven global warming

Example: Coastal Sea Level in the Upper Gulf of Thailand

Spring tide 1.0 m

NE monsoon effect 0.5 m

Buoyancy effect 0.5 m

Storm surge 1.0 m

HISTORICAL EXTREME COINCIDENCES

Land subsidence 0.3 mMean sea level rise 0.3 m

Annual Events

Episodic Extremes

2.3 m dike

2030 EXTREME RISK FOR COINCIDENCES

Episodic Extremes

Misinformation from Sources

• Lack of local data, local agenda, or local context • Internet is not always a good source of reliable

information, lack of quality control• Discipline oriented perspectives• Time and space scale problems• Hidden/preoccupied agenda• Lack of communication skill

Information Recipients

• Wrong/incomplete communication, misquotations• False security on engineering/technical solutions• ‘Mean’ Climate change signals are smaller than natural

variabilities/extremes• Unwilling to change/adapt (behavior, lifestyle,

consumption, etc.)• Consider climate change/global warming as an isolated

‘environment’ agenda rather than an integrated ‘development’ agenda

Formal Education

• M.A., Ph.D. in Environment, Development and Sustainability (A cooperative postgraduate program of Chulalongkorn University)– Core Courses

• Understanding Environment, Development and Sustainability • Sustainable Resource Management • Society, Politics and Social Changes • Advanced Issue in Environment, Development and Sustainability

– Selected Electives• Earth’s Climate System • Energy, Environment and Climate Change • Climate Science, Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation • Managing Biodiversity in a Changing Climate • Adaptation Policy Framework - Climate Change Impacts • Vulnerability Science for Sustainable Development Planning• Climate and Human Settlement • Urban Climate • Communication in Bargaining and Negotiation • Advanced Presentation Skills • Studies in Persuasion and Attitude Change

Informal Education

• Books• Internet • Public/special seminars• Media workshops• Dialogues• Student camps

Thank You

Climate change Future climate threat Risk Vulnerability Adaptation

http://research.start.or.th/climate/