Urban Mobility & Climate Change Global & India Perspectiveurbanmobilityindia.in/Upload/Conference/436b221c-24e4-4c98-92a8-… · Introducing only the shared-taxi (4 pax) service has

Urban Mobility & Climate Change Global & India Perspective

Nupur Gupta, Sr. Transport Specialist

The World Bank

Presentation Structure

• Global Green Transport Scenario

• Urban Agenda

• India Urban Green Transport Scenario

Transport Emissions

Transport

Industry

Residential

Services Other

Industry

Residential

Services

Other*

Transport

Electricity and heat

23%

World energy related CO2 emissions by sector in 2013, IEA

Source: IEA 2013

Most of the growth in recent years stems from outside high income OECD

So

urc

e: IP

PC

2015

At a global level transport emissions are produced by a handful of countries

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

USA

Russia

EU (28)

China

EU (15)

So

urc

e: C

AIT

, W

RI 2

01

2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

China

Russia

India

Brazil

Mexico

At a global level transport emissions are produced by a handful of countries

So

urc

e: C

AIT

, W

RI 2

01

2

Urban

Agenda

Total LDV ownership is

expected to double in the next

few decades (IEA, 2009) from

the current level of around 1

billion vehicles. Two-thirds of

this growth is expected in non-

OECD countries.

And incomes and motorization rates are growing

Cars carry the lowest number of trips but cause the largest portion of emissions

9

32

%

22

%

9%

25

%

65

%

54

%

25

%

62

%

LAC CHINA INDIA AFRICA

Percentage of Passenger Miles Percentage of emissions

Source:

ICCT

10

India Urban Mobility Model

DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND11

Population will double by 2050

Tier I and Tier III constitute 70%

198

319

412

City class in 2050

City class in 2010 I II III IV

I 5 0 0 0

II 4 0 0 0

III 0 14 30 0

IV 0 0 53 0

Number of cities in each Tier

12

Passenger demand will quadruple by 2050

Highest increase occurs in Tier I and Tier III

DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2010 2030 2050

Bill

ion

pas

sen

ger-

kilo

me

tre

s

IV

III

II

I

743

1816

3188

City Tier 2010 2030 2050

I 60% 62% 58%

II 10% 10% 11%

III 22% 21% 24%

IV 8% 7% 8%

▪ Share of PKM for each share

Car ownership will grow from 52 to 231 per 1000 inhabitants

2W ownership will grow from 183 to 352 per 1000 inhabitants


Cars per 1000 inhabitants 2W per 1000 inhabitants

Formal buses per lakh decrease from 18 to 12 per lakh

Share of private bus increases from 50% to 60%


15

Metro network length grows from 217km to 2813km

As planned, 250 000 million rupees per year are 100% spent on metro network construction and expansion, according to the existing and future plans.


Private mode share will increase from 30% to 48%

NMT mode share will decrease from 38% to 21%


17

CO2 emissions in 2050 is nearly EIGHT times the 2010 level.

Larger cities emit much more due to the prevalence of cars

80% of the emissions comes from Tier I and Tier III


18

▪ Without clean electricity, mode shift to metro will not transform into CO2 savings

▪ Share of WTT in the total emissions goes down from 35% in 2010 to 29% in 2050

Private car is the main contributor to the increase in TTW CO2 emissions.

Metro and rail are the main contributor to the WTT emissions, representing more than 60% in 2010 and decreases to 45% in 2050.


ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIOS

Investment policies

Shared mobility

Vehicle technology

INVESTMENT POLICIES

20

Scenarios Pop > 4M Pop 1M - 4M Pop < 1M% of funding

allocated% of funding

utilised

Bus only scenario 37% 40% 21% 98% 87%

BRT only scenario 10% 22% 13% 45% 45%

NMT only scenario 15% 9% 4% 28% 27%

Bus + MT + NMT scenario

10% MT, 20% Bus, 6% NMT

12% MT, 25% Bus, 5% NMT

0% MT, 20% Bus, 2% NMT

100% 91%

Indicative strategies of allocating available funding

Available money per year (million rupees) 250 000

21

Mixed investment strategy has the highest CO2 mitigation potential in cities

INVESTMENT POLICIES

28

207

184170

148

127

0

50

100

150

200

250

Baseline Baseline BRT only NMT only Bus only Bus + MT + NMT

2010 2050

CO

2 [

mill

ion

to

nn

es]

Well-to-tank

Tank-to-wheel

22

Bus and mixed investment strategy have the highest efficiency (CO2 per PKM)

INVESTMENT POLICIES

7068

63

43 43

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Baseline NMT only BRT only Bus + MT + NMT Bus only

CO

2 p

er

PK

M [

g/p

km]

CO2 emissions per passenger-kilometre in 2050

23

Mixed and bus only investment strategy have the highest impacts on containing the growth of private vehicle ownership

INVESTMENT POLICIES

231 242220 209

192

352367

338

295277

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Baseline NMT only BRT only Bus only Mixed

Ve

hic

les/

10

00

inh

ab.

Vehicle ownerships in 2050

Car

2W

24

Bus and mixed scenarios give more sustainable mode shares

INVESTMENT POLICIES

24% 26% 27%21%

58%

44%

38%

21% 22% 35%

13%

27%

30%

48% 46%40%

27% 23%

7% 5% 5% 4% 3%3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Baseline Baseline BRT only NMT only Bus only Bus+MT+NMT

2010 2050

IPT

Private vehicle

Non-motorised

Public transport

25

Combination of mode investments yield superior outcomes -Integration

Encourage low cost high impact Bus and NMT investments in combination with or without mass transit

Investing in mass rapid transit in isolation is suboptimal

Focus on Tier 3 cities with differentiated strategies compared to Tier 1 & 2

KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR MAXIMUM IMPACTS

26

SHARED MOBILITY SCENARIO

Introducing only the shared-taxi (4 pax) service has the risk of increasing CO2

emissions, because the current car share is low.

CO2 benefits can be achieved when taxi-bus (16 pax) service takes high percentage of the shared vehicle fleet.

The messages is consistent with ITF’s shared mobility studies.

28

207

127

160

119

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

Baseline Baseline Bus + MT + NMT S.Mob. - low taxi-bus S.Mob. - high taxi-bus

2010 2050

Well-to-tank

Tank-to-wheel

VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS

27

Scenarios Bus, BRT 2W, 3W Car

2DS Tech Path2DS Fuel Eco,

2DS Fuel Share2DS Fuel Eco,

2DS Fuel Share2DS Fuel Eco,

2DS Fuel Share

High Electrification40% elec. by 2030, 70% elec. by 2050,

4DS WTT

60% elec. by 2030, 100% elec. by 2050,

4DS WTT

40% elec. by 2030, 70% elec. by 2050,

4DS WTT

Introducing alternative vehicle technology pathway on top of the most effective scenario “Bus + MT + NMT”

IEA’s 2DS lays out an energy system deployment pathway and an emissions trajectory consistent with at least a 50% chance of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2°C.


28

2DS vehicle technology pathway, CO2 emissions reduced further by 80mt

High electrification scenario reduces CO2 emissions by 56mt

But do not address sustainable mobility objectives (i.e. private vehicle use, congestion), in a way that the mixed strategy does

28

207

157 151

127

0

50

100

150

200

250

Baseline Baseline Baseline + 2DS Tech Baseline + High Elec. Bus + MT + NMT

2010 2050

mill

ion

to

nn

es

Well-to-tank

Tank-to-wheel


29

Combining the mixed strategy with 2DS/High electrification can address both CO2 and sustainable mobility objectives

Focus next on clean source of electricity in high electrification scenario

28

207

157 151

94 90

0

40

80

120

160

200

Baseline Baseline Baseline + 2DSTech

Baseline + HighElec.

Bus + MT + NMT +2DS Tech

Bus + MT + NMT +High Elec.

2010 2050

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Well-to-tank

Tank-to-wheel

30

Operationalize all policy levers together

Focus on Tier 3 cities with differentiated strategies compared to Tier 1 & 2

Controlling the urban footprint expansion for compact cities

Encourage low cost high impact Bus and NMT investments in combination or without mass transit

Emphasize high occupancy shared mobility

Greening the Grid essential for realizing the electric mobility benefits

Electric mobility strategy within the larger urban mobility strategy

KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR MAXIMUM IMPACTS

Thank You

[email protected]

INTRODUCTION

32

A policy simulation tool to identify cost-efficient urban mobility pathways for mitigating CO2 emissions in Indian cities.

Excel-based tool

Policies that can be tested with the tool:

Transport infrastructure investment

Urban area growth

Demand-management measures

Vehicle technology

Shared mobility

Joint work between the World Bank and the International Transport Forum with local data and technical support provided by TERI.

MODEL SCOPE

33

Analysis carried out for all cities (population >500K) in India

Exhaustive city-specific data collection by TERI for 108 cities

UA pop (2011) City Tier NO. of Cities Cities Included

>8 Million I 5Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Kolkata,

Chennai

4 - 8 Million II 4 Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Pune, Surat

1 - 4 Million III 44 Jaipur, Lucknow, Vijayawada, etc.

0.5 -1 Million IV 55 Amaravati, Mathura, Bhubaneswar, etc.

The model captures aggregate relationships (not a projection model

for each city )

MODEL FRAMEWORK

34

Documents

Urban Mobility & Climate Change Global & India Perspectiveurbanmobilityindia.in/Upload/Conference/436b221c-24e4-4c98-92a8-… · Introducing only the shared-taxi (4 pax) service has