URBAN AGE ISTANBUL CONFERENCE NOVEMBER 2009€¦ · • Only 7 % of respondents in Istanbul think that construction of more roads would solve the transportation problems. 3 % think

URBAN AGE ISTANBUL CONFERENCE

NOVEMBER 2009

Haluk Gerçek

İstanbul Technical University

Patterns of Mobility for İstanbul: What Next?

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www.urban-age.net

H.Gerçek, Urban Age Istanbul Conference, 4-6 November 2009.

Haluk GERÇEK (PhD), Istanbul Technical University

Patterns of Mobility in Istanbul: What is Next ?

1. Transportation System and Mobility Data

2. Strategy, Targets and Indicators: Are we going in the right direction ?

3. Plans for the Future (2023)

4. Suggestions

3

Outline...


Source : TSI

Istanbul as Percentage of Turkey...

17.8

16.5

22.0

26.4

20.0

0 10 20 30

Population

Employment

GDP

Number of Cars

Number of MotorVehicles

GDP per Capita = $ 12,858 (2008)

5

Traffic Congestion...

Average Travel Time (Minute)

38,0

15,5

52,8

34,3

22,0

40,732,2

16,0

48,9

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

Motorised (min) Walk (min) Total (min)

198719962006

• Traffic congestion stands out as the major issue in Istanbul ( 59 % of people concern most, 43 % in London, and 16 % in Sao Paulo) (Urban Age City Survey, 2009).

• Although average travel time has decreased due to increase of walk trips, motorized travel time has increased 20 % in the last decade.

• High traffic congestion at low level of car ownership.


6

Road Transport Fuel Consumption in Istanbul...

Increase between 1990 and 2007:

• Diesel Fuel 16.3 %

• Gasoline 25.1 % Fuel Consumption in the Road Transport Sector in Istanbul

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,00019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

(Ton

) GasolineDiesel FuelLPG

Source: PETDER (Turkish Oil Industry Association)

7

CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in Istanbul...

• Between 1990 and 2007, it has increased by 37.4 %.

• No official targets for carbon emissions.

• There is a major concern over environmental issues (45 % of people think environment, and 41 % think traffic would improve the quality of life most in the city) (Urban Age City Survey, 2009).

H.Gerçek, Meda City Forum, 3-4 November 2009, Barcelona.

CO2 Emissions From Road Transport in Istanbul

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

M T

on

LPGGasolineDiesel Fuel

8

Estimation of CO2 Emissions from Transport in Istanbul...

2006 2023

CO2 Emissions (gr/passenger-km) 99.7 80.3

19.5 % reduction per passenger-km

However, total CO2 emissions are estimated to increase by 168 % due to the estimated increase of VKT. Source: Ö.Verbaş (2008), İstanbul’da Ulaştırma Sisteminin Sürdürülebilirliğinin Değerlendirilmesi, Y. Lisans tezi, İTÜ.


9

Road Safety in Istanbul...

Between 1999 and 2007, per 1 million population,

• Road accidents has increased by 14 %

• Injuries has increased by 8.8 %

• Fatalites has decreased by 36 %

Source: Turkish Statistics Institute (TUIK).

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

1999

=100 Accidents

FatalitiesInjuries

- Urban road tunnels (156 km)

- 3rd Bosphorus Bridge - Road tunnel under

Bosphorus - Flyovers

Controversial Road Projects ...

11

Successes ...

• Fare integration by electronic tickets (Akbil).

• Rail and sea transport improvements.

• Metrobus on the Bosphorus Bridge.

• Budget allocated to urban transport projects.

• 57 % of people are aware of the effects of climate change on their city

(Urban Age City Survey, 2009).


12

Failures, and Satisfaction with Mayor...

• Lack of integration of land-use and transportation plans.

• Lack of official targets set for sustainability indicators.

• Congestion that is densely felt by people. • Lack of transparent & accountable decision-making

process. • Despite the challenges faced by Istanbul’s citizens,

they are more positive about their local governance than in many other world cities (12 % very satisfied, 53 % satisfied with the Mayor, Urban Age City Survey, 2009) .


13

Decentralisation and New Urban Clusters (2023)...

Source: IMP, JICA (2007)


14

Distribution of Population (2023)...


Flagship urban development projects


15

Population Density...

Area = 5,342 sq km Built-up Area = 16 % Average = 2,376 persons per sq km Central Area = 20,118 persons per sq km Peak = 68,000 persons per sq km

2007

2023

3,182 persons per sq km


16

Desire Lines (2023)...

Self-contained new centers to reduce travel demand?


2006


17

City Macro-Form (2023)...

Environmental capacity : 16 million Most likely estimate : 18.5 million With significantly imbalanced GDP distribution in Turkey, Istanbul will continue to become a magnet for the rural population.



18

Base Rail Network (2023)...


Existing Lines (138 km)

Base Network (183 km)

32 % of respondents think that investing subway system is necessary to solve transportation problems in Istanbul (Urban Age City Survey, 2009)


19

Bosphorus Tunnel Projects...

KAZL

IÇEŞ

ME

SELİ

MİY

E

K. A

YASO

FYA

GÖ

ZTEP

E

2 x 4 ŞERİTLİ BÖLÜNMÜŞ YOL

2 x 2 ŞERİTLİ DELME TÜNEL

Marmaray Project

Bosphorus Road Tunnel

76.3 km, 40 stations (3 underground)


20

Population Within 45 min. Travel Time (2006)...

Car PT

Despite severe traffic congestion, car travel is faster than PT.


21

Population Within 45 min. Travel Time (2023)...

Car PT

Rail Transit Marmaray

Improved accessibility is likely to have considerable impacts on land-use in the old city center.


• Who puts the projects ? • Who evaluates ? • Who decides ? • Who puts money ?

Decision-Making ...

23

Strategies for Sustainable Policies ...

• Emphasize longer term impacts. Reducing GHG and improving air quality are more important for future generations.

• 88 % of people in Istanbul concern about the environmental problems, because of the life of their grand childrens (Urban Age Survey, 2009). Policy makers tend to focus on current needs and overlook longer term problems.

• Emphasize demand-side measures that are more cost-effective. It is impossible to build one’s way out of traffic congestion.

• Only 7 % of respondents in Istanbul think that construction of more roads would solve the transportation problems. 3 % think the 3. Bosphorus Bridge is a solution (Urban Age City Survey, 2009).

24


• Emphasize accessibility, instead of simply mobility.

• Emphasize non-motorised transport alternatives (walking and biking). Maintain and create choices for mobility.

• Set targets for sustainability indicators. For instance, reducing CO2 by 25 % before 2023.


25


• Develop a package of solutions that supports health, social cohesion, equity and environmental quality.

No one type of policy will solve transportation problems.

Objectives / Key strategy elements Infrastructure Infrastructure Information Taxation and Clean Fuel and

Provision Management Provision Pricing Vehicle TechnologyReduce need for travelReduce car useImprove access to basic servicesImprove public transportImprove road network performanceShift to lower-emission modesInternalize external costs of transportImprove use of clean fuel technologyPreserve natural land use

Key: Minor contribution Major contribution

Policy Instruments

Land Use Attitudes TDM

Adapted from May, A.D. et al., Developing Sustainable Urban Land-use and Transport Strategies, A Decision Maker’s Guide Book, Funded by EC, 5th Framework-EESD.2003.


Thank you...

[email protected]

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URBAN AGE ISTANBUL CONFERENCE NOVEMBER 2009€¦ · • Only 7 % of respondents in Istanbul think that construction of more roads would solve the transportation problems. 3 % think