-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
1/44
:
?
( )
,
2 7 2 0 1 3 .
1 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
2/44
1
: ?
2 :
.
3 :
?
2 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
3/44
7 . 8 % 2 0 0 9 . : 4 %
2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 1 , 3 . 4 % 2 0 1 2 . 7 %
2 0 0 0 - 2 0 0 8 .
: 2 . 5 %
2 0 1 2 . , 1 . 6 % I 2 0 1 3 . , 2 % I I I I I
2 0 1 3 . ( - ) .
2 0 1 3 . 2 0 0 9 . , 2 - 2 . 5 %
2 0 1 3 .
3 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
4/44
4 %
, .
2 0 1 1 .
2 0 0 0 - 2 0 0 7 . , -
2 0 1 3 .
:
1 0 %
3 % 2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 7 . ,
( ) , 2 0 0 0 - .
4 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
5/44
:
5 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
6/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
7/44
:
6 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
8/44
:
7 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
9/44
8 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
10/44
9 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
11/44
?
( . ) :
.
,
.
.
.
1 0 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
12/44
?
,
, .
: ,
.
: .
1 1 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
13/44
1 2 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
14/44
1 3 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
15/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
16/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
17/44
/
,
.
: ,
- .
:
;
.
?
, ,
(
$ 6 0 / .
1 - 2 ) , /
.
1 6 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
18/44
/
( ,
, ) ,
.
.
,
?
.
1 7 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
19/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
20/44
7 % , 2 0 0 0 - , ?
.
.
.
?
.
1 9 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
21/44
7 % ?
1 9 9 0 - . :
.
2 0 0 0 - . :
.
2 0 0 0 - .
. :
.
,
.
2 0 0 0 - .
( $ 1 0 / .
= 1 . . ) .
2 0 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
22/44
7 % ?
2 1 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
23/44
7 % ?
2 2 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
24/44
log GDP Russia/USSR (source: A. Markevich, M. Harrison)
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
25/44
log GDP Russia/USSR (source: A. Markevich, M. Harrison)
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
26/44
2 0 0 0 - .
.
M c K i n s e y :
1 9 9 9 . , ,
2 0 % , 2 0 0 9 . 3 0 % .
( a d v a n t a g e o f b a c k w a r d n e s s
G e r s h e n k r o n ) :
( l o w h a n g i n g f r u i t e e c t ) .
G o l d m a n S a c h s B R I C s :
+ +
.
2 5 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
27/44
:
, ,
.
:
(
)
.
,
.
2 6 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
28/44
:
D o i n g b u s i n e s s .
. .
,
.
?
2 7 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
29/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
30/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
31/44
:
?
(
) ?
?
?
2 8 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
32/44
:
/ /
. :
.
, ,
. :
.
1 9 9 0 - . : ,
, . :
, .
?
2 9 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
33/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
34/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
35/44
?
,
( ) :
;
;
;
;
.
.
3 1 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
36/44
.
.
: 8 %
2 % ,
.
: 8 % ,
, ,
. : $ 2 0 0 .
3 2 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
37/44
:
( ) .
,
, , /
.
3 3 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
38/44
2 % .
3 4 / 3 6
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
39/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
40/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
41/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
42/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
43/44
-
7/28/2019 uralsibtalk_v2final
44/44
. . . .
. . ,
.
3 6 / 3 6
