Update on Storm-Based WarningsUpdate on Storm-Based Warnings

Partner’s Meeting

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Partner’s Meeting

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

May 8, 2003

John FerreeNWS Severe Storms Services Leader

John FerreeNWS Severe Storms Services Leader

The Weather Warning Partnership

The Weather Warning Partnership

The Public

National Weather Service

NewsMedia and Private

Sector Meteorologists

Emergency Management

County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning

Almost 1 million people warned

County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning

Almost 1 million people warned

• More specific• Increased clarity• Supports newdissemination technology

Why Storm-Based Warnings?Why Storm-Based Warnings?

Three simultaneous tornadoes within

line of severe thunderstorms

Storm-Based Tornado Warnings

70% less area covered~600,000 fewer people warned

Storm-Based Tornado Warnings

70% less area covered~600,000 fewer people warned

An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area

An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area

• Severe Thunderstorm Warning for San Bernardino and Riverside County CA

– 3.5 million people

– 27,000 square miles

• Threatened Area

– < 2000 people

– 750 square miles

• Severe Thunderstorm Warning for San Bernardino and Riverside County CA

– 3.5 million people

– 27,000 square miles

• Threatened Area

– < 2000 people

– 750 square miles

Delineation Improves FFWsDelineation Improves FFWs

Feature Tracking AddedFeature Tracking Added

• Location and motion of feature

– Estimated location of tornado, leading edge of gust front, leading edge of hail core, or other.

• Location and motion of feature

– Estimated location of tornado, leading edge of gust front, leading edge of hail core, or other.

* AT 425 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

• THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... AKRON AND 8 MILES WEST OF LATNER BY 500 PM MST

LAT...LON 4031 10316 4011 10303 3998 10346 4014 10356 TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 248DEG 18KT 4010 10340

* AT 425 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

• THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... AKRON AND 8 MILES WEST OF LATNER BY 500 PM MST

LAT...LON 4031 10316 4011 10303 3998 10346 4014 10356 TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 248DEG 18KT 4010 10340

Outstanding Issues for Storm-Based WarningsOutstanding Issues for Storm-Based Warnings

1. County Warning Area (CWA) boundaries

2. Multiple warnings in a county

3. Local Storm Report (LSR) improvements

4. CAP format

1. County Warning Area (CWA) boundaries

2. Multiple warnings in a county

3. Local Storm Report (LSR) improvements

4. CAP format

County Warning Area BoundariesCounty Warning Area Boundaries

St. Louis CWA

Paducah CWA

Lincoln CWA

Madison

Bond

Clinton

Fayette

Marion

St. Clair

Washington

Randolph

Perry

Jackson

Franklin

Jefferson

Hamilton

WilliamsonSaline

Wayne

Clay

STL

PAH

ILX

Madison

Bond

Clinton

Fayette

Marion

St. Clair

Washington

Randolph

Perry

Jackson

Franklin

Jefferson

Hamilton

WilliamsonSaline

Wayne

Clay

STL

PAH

ILX

County Warning Area BoundariesCounty Warning Area Boundaries

St. Louis CWA

Paducah CWA

Lincoln CWA

Issued by PAH

Issued by STL

Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish

Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish

• Issue for text, radio, TV crawls

• Add reference to other valid warnings

• Include counties with directional delimiters?

• Summary severe weather statements?

• Issue for text, radio, TV crawls

• Add reference to other valid warnings

• Include counties with directional delimiters?

• Summary severe weather statements?

Madison

Bond

Clinton

Fayette

Marion

St. Clair

Washington

Randolph

Perry

Jackson

Franklin

Jefferson

Williamson

TOR until 3:30PM

SVR until 3:45PM

New Requirements forLocal Storm Reports (LSR)

New Requirements forLocal Storm Reports (LSR)

• Individual report output with VTEC ETN

– Accurate corrections

• Cumulative report output

– One line per report (15 reports in 15 lines)

– Flexible time range (severe reports 18Z – 21Z)

– Flexible report type (snowfall accumulation)

• CAP/XML Format

• Individual report output with VTEC ETN

– Accurate corrections

• Cumulative report output

– One line per report (15 reports in 15 lines)

– Flexible time range (severe reports 18Z – 21Z)

– Flexible report type (snowfall accumulation)

• CAP/XML Format

CAP FormatCAP Format

“The Order requires EAS participants to accept messages using Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)…to ensure the efficient and rapid transmission of EAS alerts to the American public in a variety of formats (including text, audio and video) and via different means (broadcast, cable, satellite, and other networks) and to promote the development of Next Generation EAS.”

Federal Communications Commission AnnouncementMay 31, 2007

“The Order requires EAS participants to accept messages using Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)…to ensure the efficient and rapid transmission of EAS alerts to the American public in a variety of formats (including text, audio and video) and via different means (broadcast, cable, satellite, and other networks) and to promote the development of Next Generation EAS.”

Federal Communications Commission AnnouncementMay 31, 2007

http://www.eic.org/docs/FCCCAPEASnotice.pdf

Summary of Outstanding Issues for Storm-Based Warnings

Summary of Outstanding Issues for Storm-Based Warnings

1. County Warning Area (CWA) boundaries

2. Multiple warnings in a county

3. Local Storm Report (LSR) improvements

4. CAP format

1. County Warning Area (CWA) boundaries

2. Multiple warnings in a county

3. Local Storm Report (LSR) improvements

4. CAP format

www.weather.gov/sbwarningswww.weather.gov/sbwarnings

Questions?Questions?

• Contact information

– E-mail: John.T.Ferree@noaa.gov

– Phone: 405-325-2209

• Success depends on all of us!

• Contact information

– E-mail: John.T.Ferree@noaa.gov

– Phone: 405-325-2209

• Success depends on all of us!