Upali Amarasinghe

IWMI Delhi

National River Linking Project Issues Underlying the Water Demand Estimation

Outline

NRLP – Rationale, Components, Envisaged

Benefits and concerns

IWMI’s Analysis of NRLP

Water Availability across river basins

Water Scarcities of river basins

Issues underlying Water Demand projections

NLRP - Rationale

NCIWRD’s water demand projections were the basis for inter basin transfers

Total Water Demand by 2050 973 – 1180 km3 (low-high scenarios)

Irrigation628-807 km3

Domestic90-111 km3

Industrial63-70 km3

Environ.20 km3

Others81 km3

Irrigated Area113-146 Million Hha

Grain demand420 - 494 Million Mt

NLRP - Rationale

Key Observations

High water demand > potentially utilizable water

resources

Irrigated area ( high demand) > Ultimate potential of

140 M ha

Source: http://nwda.gov.in

NLRP - Rationale

National Water Development Agency (NWDA) states

….for meeting 450 Million Mt of food grains, the irrigation potential

has to be increased by 160 million ha for all crops by 2050…..

….. one of the most effective ways to increase the irrigation

potential for increasing food grain production, mitigate flood and

droughts and reduce regional imbalances in the availability of

water is the interlinking of rivers……

Source: http://nwda.gov.in

NLRP – Project Components

• Himalayan component– Store, transfer surplus water

Brhamaputra and Ganga river

basin to west and south through

14 link canals

• Peninsular component– Transfer water to water short

areas through 16 link canals

Source: http://nwda.gov.in

NLRP - Envisaged benefits

Transfer 178 km3 of water through 12000 km of link

canals

Irrigate 30 million ha

25 M Ha of Surface, 10 M Ha Groundwater)

30,000 MW of hydropower

Flood control

Domestic and Industrial water supplies

Navigation

Salinity and pollution control

Source: http://nwda.gov.in

NLRP – Concerns

Contentious issue among the civil society, media, and academics

Project concept itself was dubious

Needs assessment was not adequate

Alternative water management/development options

were not fully explored

Environmental water needs, especially of the water

surplus basins, were not given attention

Social displacement cost was enormous

Total cost of the project is very huge etc.

IWMI Analysis of NRLP

Concluding Workshop VI: Planning for a Food, Livelihoods and Water Secure India 2050

Phase III12 Months

Phase II15 Months

Phase I9 Months

OUTPUTACTIVITIESPHASE

11 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop I

A Sharp, Well-Rounded Prognosis of India’s Water

Future - 2025/2050 & of the Water Challenge Facing the

Nation

Phase II A Phase II B16

Studies, Synthesis

& National Worksho

p II

7 Studies,

Synthesis &

National Worksho

p III

Phase III APhase III B14 Studies, Synthesis &

National Workshop

IV

8 Studies, Synthesis &

National Workshop

V

Phase II A Phase II BHow adequate, complete and

cost-effective a response is the River-Linking

Project to India’s Water

Challenge 2050?

How to maximize net social benefit of the River-Link Project

Phase III AIf NRLP fails to take off, how else can India

effectively meet its Water

Challenge 2050?

Phase III AHow best to

put into operation the

National Perspective

Plan

Water Availability – Spatial Variation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

River basins

Per

cent

of

tota

l (%

)

AreaPopulationTotal Renewale Water Resources

Figure 1. Area, Population and water availability of Indian river basins

Note: WFR1-Westerly f low ing rivers in the Kutch and Saurashtra and Luni riverWFR2-Westerly f low ing rivers south of Tapi basinEFR1-Easterly f low ing rivers betw een Mahanadi and PennarEFR2-Easterly f low ing rivers betw een Pennar and Kanyakumari

Water and Food accounting

Water Scarcities

Issues Underlying Water Demand projections

Total and regional Population growth

Economic growth, Urbanization and Consumption pattern changes

Economic growth and Domestic, Industrial and service sector water

demand

Contribution of Irrigated agriculture to crop productivity growth

Expanding groundwater irrigation, environmental impacts

Potential in Rainfed agriculture and rainwater harvesting

Potential of Crop Diversification and Expanding Worlds food trade

Environmental water demand

Issues – Regional Population growth to 2050

i – Visaria & Visaria projections < UN Medium projections

ii- New Population projections << could be 40 million less than NCIWRD projections

Population growth Scenario

UN 1994 revision

NCIWRD assumption

UN 2004 Revision

(HIV/AIDS in)

New projection??

Low 1346 1346 1333 1333

Medium 1640 1593

High 1980 1581i 1980 1541ii

• Where would this less growth occur?

Issues – Regional Population growth

Issues – Changes in consumption patterns

• NCIWRD assumed substantial increase in food grain

consumption in projecting total grain demand of 424 to

494 Million Mt.

• Assumed 284 Kg/person/year of food grain consumption

by 2050

• But, consumption has decreased 182 kg/person in 1991

to 175 kg/person by 2000 – A declining trend or ????

Issues – Changes in consumption patterns

Total and animal products calorie supply of different countries

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

1995-per capita GDP (US$)

1995

- p

er c

apit

a ca

lori

e in

take

(K

cal)

Total Animal products

India (349,2394)

India (349,173)

Data source: FAOstat/UNDP

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

To

tal c

alo

rie

sup

ply

(K

cal/p

c/d

ay)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Calorie supply per person per day in India

Total calorie supply Grains-% of total

Others-% of total

Data source: FAOstat

Issues – Domestic and Industrial Demand

• NCIWRD’s domestic and Industrial water demand projections seems to be on the low side

Withdrawals (m3/pc/year)

1997/

1998

NCIWRD

2050

Low

NCIWRD

2050

High

Domestic 30 67 70

Industrial 30 60 51

Issues – Domestic and Industrial Demand

Per capita domestic diversions

y = 0.6152x - 1.1518

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

4 6 8 10 12

ln (GDP-1995 (US$/pc))

ln (

Do

m. d

iver

sio

ns

(m3/

pc)

)

India (349, 12)

Per capita industrial diversions

y = 1.0331x - 4.5177

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

4 6 8 10 12

ln (GDP-1995 (US$/pc) )ln

(In

d. d

iver

sio

ns

(m3/

pc)

)

India (349,17)

Per capita demand would increase many fold by 2050.

Issues – Contribution of Irrigation to growth in crop yield

NCIWRD assumptions of grain yield growth

Grain yield (ton/ha) 1995 2050

Rainfed 1.00 1.5

Irrigated 2.35 4.0

• Grain yields in 2050 are low compared with developed countries grain yields ate present.

• Are there any scope for increase in water productivity?

Figre 7. Net irrigated area and Grain yield indices

80%

120%

160%

200%

240%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

NIA

and y

ield

indic

es

(1961=100)

Net irrigated area Grain yield

Issues – Contribution of Irrigation to growth in crop yield

• What is the contribution of irrigation (surface and groundwater) to crop yield growth?

Issues – Contribution of Irrigation to growth in crop yield

• Groundwater Expansion

Issues – Scope for groundwater expansion and its impacts

Scope for expanding groundwater irrigation and then scope

for increasing irrigated crop yield ?

What is the potential for increasing groundwater irrigated

area without surface irrigation expansion?

What would be the implications of environmental impacts-

depleting water tables, salinity, poor quality groundwater- on

existing groundwater area?

Issues – Changes in rural employment patterns and Cropping patterns

Future trends of rural employments and their impacts on irrigated area

expansion and cropping intensity?

– NCIWRD assume that livelihood of much of the population depends on

agriculture

What would be impact of cropping patterns changes on irrigated area

expansion and cropping intensity increase?

– NCIWRD assumes 67%-70% of the total crops area under grain crops by 2025

– But the grain crop area as a % of total area has decreased over the last decade

and is already below the NCIWRD assumptions.

Issues – Rainfed potential

• Scope for rainfed crop yield growth with supplemental

irrigation?

• Scope for supplemental irrigation through rainwater

harvesting?

• Locations where rainwater harvesting can have negative

impacts?

Issues –Virtual water trade

• Self sufficiency targets and international trade?

– NCIWRD assumes national self sufficiency of grains including

animal feed?

– What are the implications of WTO agreements of agriculture on

food trade?

• Scope for virtual water trade between basins and

between countries?

Issues – Environmental Water Demand

• NCIWRD estimates of Environemntal water demand is

only 20 km3.

• Preliminary estimates of minimum river flows to maintain

rivers in fair condition is in the order of 475 km3

• What are the environmental water demands of different

basins? And How they will affect future water scenarios?

Thank You