Untitled

2015. 2. 26

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Derivative/Technical Analyst

02) 3787-5083

[email protected]

KOSPI

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

(%)

: KRX

Korea Market Indices

(pt,%) Close 02/25 02/24 02/23

KOSPI 1,990.47 +0.73 +0.39 +0.35

1,911.32 +0.75 +0.08 +0.16

2,423.25 +0.30 +1.01 +1.12

1,874.12 +0.84 +0.96 +0.66

KOSDAQ 616.57 -0.76 +0.94 +1.05

() -2,996 -1,201 -930

() +2,076 +806 +1,279

() +1,118 +486 -105

() +5,017 +755 +120 +632

Futures

KOSPI 200 252.90 +0.90 +0.35 +0.70

-0.06 +0.72 +0.85

() +1,324 +1,202 +2,780

PR () +38 +21 +114

(/) -2,677 -1,413 +123

(/) +2,661 +1,015 -1,929

Money Flow() Close(D-1) 02/24 02/23 02/17

1. 176,462 +1,779 +16,268 -4,202

2. () 27,176 -65 +12 -263

3. 1,314 -42 +125 -281

4. 693,489 -1,304 -589 -966

() 587,020 -1,063 -589 -1,119

(Active) 399,901 -73 -268 -197

106,470 -241 -0 +154

5. 205,008 +273 +399 +184

6. 745,832 +10,460 -4 +948

7. MMF 999,240 -3,534 -7,927 -529

,

, .

, 4 FOMC

.

, .

(data-dependent) .

Fed (patience) , 3

.

(calendar) ,

.

, ''

. , ''

''

. 3 FOMC

.

.

.

.

.

,

. 1 ,

,

.

.

,

. 19

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2015. 2. 26

2

19 4

9 . 12.85$ 13$,

9.48$ 10$ . 2

10$ .

140 50 . ,

GAP, TJX

6 10$ .

,

.

26 (NABE) ,

1/4 51% . Robert Half Technology

2,400 IT CIO ,

87% .

.

.

. .

. 2014

,

. (24~25)

. 3

, 2/4

6

.

vs

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

(%, YoY)(%) ()

()

: Datastream

2015. 2. 26

3

Market Review

(%) (%)

KOSPI 1990.47 14.35 0.73 (%) (3) 2.04 -0.03 -1.31

KOSPI 200 252.96 1.68 0.67 (10) 1.97 -0.01 -0.57

KOSDAQ 616.57 -4.74 -0.76 / 1099.00 -10.90 -0.98

18585.20 -18.28 -0.10 /100 932.83 -0.35 -0.04

9699.54 70.17 0.73 / 118.97 0.16 0.13

29007.99 3.33 0.01 / 1.1340 0.0005 0.04

3228.84 -18.06 -0.56 WTI(Spot) 50.39 1.81 3.73

DOW JONES 18224.57 15.38 0.08 Baltic Dry Index 524 8 1.55

NASDAQ 4967.14 -0.99 -0.02 DRAM 2GB 256Mx8 DDR3 2.20 0.00 0.00

S&P 500 2113.86 -1.62 -0.08 NAND FLASH 64GB MLC 2.55 0.00 -0.04

S&P 500 300

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

IT

(%)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

(%)

: Datastream : Datastream

, .

, FOMC

. 1

5.3% 48.1 . 47 .

. -

. ECB EU ,

, .

0.56% 3,228.84pt .

.

, , ,

. , ,

. 2015 11% (

13.3%). , 2 HSBC PMI 50.1% 4

. ,

. 3 1 .

2015. 2. 26

4

Market Data

(2.13~ 2.24) (: )

14 2/13 2/16 2/17 2/23 2/24

158,425 169,605 162,616 158,414 174,682 176,462

() +4,354 -6,989 -4,202 +16,268 +1,779

() 25,333 27,466 27,491 27,228 27,240 27,176

() -38 +26 -263 +12 -65

() 25,374 30,020 30,017 30,089 30,155 30,092

() +112 -3 +72 +66 -63

1,176 1,361 1,512 1,231 1,357 1,314

() -269 +151 -281 +125 -42

696,257 696,095 696,349 695,383 694,794 693,489

() +724 +253 -966 -589 -1,304

(Index ) 596,362 589,889 589,791 588,672 588,082 587,020

() -309 -98 -1,119 -589 -1,063

(Active) 405,875 400,902 400,439 400,242 399,974 399,901

() -122 -464 -197 -268 -73

99,894 106,207 106,558 106,711 106,711 106,470

() +1,033 +351 +154 - -241

204,049 203,722 204,152 204,336 204,735 205,008

() +84 +429 +184 +399 +273

103,768 102,949 102,837 102,707 102,712 102,659

() -174 -112 -130 +5 -53

28,706 27,656 27,612 27,564 27,508 27,474

() -49 -44 -48 -56 -33

272,773 244,761 244,897 244,656 245,291 245,461

() +116 +136 -241 +635 +170

705,984 732,816 734,428 735,376 735,372 745,832

() +397 +1,612 +948 -4 +10,460

MMF 843,316 1,002,882 1,011,230 1,010,701 1,002,774 999,240

() -6,070 +8,348 -529 -7,927 -3,534

: ,

, / (2.25)

KOSPI / (: ) KOSPI / (: )

1 POSCO 239 528 1 KODEX 701 SK 301

2 LG 216 SK 128 2 382 165

3 211 126 3 TIGER 200 352 KODEX 158

4 209 124 4 277 144

5 160 78 5 199 TIGER (H) 123

6 130 GS 69 6 189 120

7 114 OCI 48 7 OCI 181 NAVER 117

8 108 47 8 SK 139 SK 107

9 96 SK C&C 47 9 137 96

10 79 G 44 10 132 SK C&C 72

: :

KOSDAQ / (: ) KOSDAQ / (: )

1 37 39 1 127 149

2 CJ E&M 26 KG 27 2 53 CJ E&M 32

3 26 25 3 CJ 36 28

4 24 24 4 34 25

5 22 22 5 31 23

6 20 CJ 22 6 23 INT 22

7 14 19 7 23 22

8 OCI 13 17 8 21 20

9 13 17 9 16 KT 19

10 13 17 10 14 18

: :

2015. 2. 26

5

Technical Approach

(: ) (: )

KOSPI KOSDAQ KOSPI KOSDAQ

3,990 7,960 46,050

7,450 21,300 9,470

6,230 18,200

LG 230,500 31,300

SK 104,000 KTH 11,800

S-Oil 65,300 29,900

GS 44,550 167,100

S&T 48,400 10,950

10,200 3,605

204,000 - 11,400

: 3 : 10

(: %) (: )


86 83 4,340 5,060

89 84 STX 5,360 2,660

89 84 27,800 29,050

NAVER 92 84 3,990 15,550

92 86 5,680 10,100

GKL 93 87 16,400 15,350

SK C&C 95 87 64,900 3,570

95 89 24,700 12,150

95 89 257,500 12,600

95 KT 89 58,000 EG 17,200

: 20 ( 98% ) : 5 20

Stochastic Slow (: %) (: %)

KOSPI Slow %K KOSDAQ Slow %K KOSPI KOSDAQ

29 854.11 649.36

KG 25 448.33 603.11

25 422.95 469.54

SM C&C 25 OCI 412.32 371.30

IPS 24 394.25 327.88

24 362.22 221.83

24 332.34 219.20

22 311.03 213.40

21 NH 293.07 212.31

21 261.65 187.50

: Slow %K 20% : 3% 20 50%

(: %) (: %)


26.50 53.19 11.92 7.71

19.97 21.06 8.30 5.10

16.26 12.25 7.66 3.94

ISC 11.67 OCI 5.79 2.79

9.29 NH 4.37 - 2.70

8.69 LG 3.73 2.44

5.86 3.64 2.29

3.58 1.60

S-Oil 3.32 1.30

GS 2.89 1.08

: 20 3% : 10 7

2015. 2. 26

6

(1) (: , )

/ (%) (%)

2,917,373 560,855 19.22 71,595 61,800 -13.68

39,407,207 6,658,938 16.90 18,550 19,350 4.31

9,499,009 1,441,510 15.18 116,429 114,500 -1.66

LF 1,345,249 196,492 14.61 31,145 31,250 0.34

41,852,586 5,939,831 14.19 6,713 7,450 10.98

36,947,748 4,967,975 13.45 9,550 9,070 -5.03

3,228,920 425,636 13.18 87,252 85,500 -2.01

6,329,616 803,619 12.70 5,749 6,140 6.81

9,382,165 1,189,368 12.68 25,531 27,900 9.28

5,964,258 740,255 12.41 14,160 13,950 -1.48

416,841 48,715 11.69 249,857 262,000 4.86

45,938,888 5,365,690 11.68 19,293 19,100 -1.00

7,909,362 900,612 11.39 66,924 68,400 2.21

OCI 6,872,572 753,050 10.96 82,881 93,200 12.45

1,325,501 141,773 10.70 241,381 257,500 6.68

3,176,055 337,957 10.64 45,869 43,550 -5.06

332,346 35,314 10.63 72,990 73,600 0.84

S-Oil 13,667,160 1,441,855 10.55 61,148 65,300 6.79

1,312,826 134,948 10.28 113,810 122,500 7.64

17,026,294 1,675,139 9.84 19,757 20,400 3.25

9,373,120 918,373 9.80 45,166 46,300 2.51

806,806 77,217 9.57 59,690 58,900 -1.32

1,881,035 178,743 9.50 34,660 36,650 5.74

SK 3,239,171 303,278 9.36 286,167 288,000 0.64

9,358,486 872,268 9.32 56,286 57,900 2.87

51,060 4,704 9.21 1,759,190 1,816,000 3.23

2,422,701 206,415 8.52 79,848 80,600 0.94

24,343,233 2,056,181 8.45 12,757 13,600 6.61

CJ 1,305,543 107,903 8.26 189,833 182,500 -3.86

21,018 1,718 8.17 1,864,714 1,852,000 -0.68

10,183,137 808,422 7.94 29,205 29,100 -0.36

230,301 18,249 7.92 1,031,762 980,000 -5.02

16,615 1,310 7.88 723,905 737,000 1.81

LG 22,966,709 1,790,716 7.80 35,302 34,150 -3.26

2,353,499 182,707 7.76 289,762 256,500 -11.48

SDI 5,638,316 436,471 7.74 130,357 133,000 2.03

KT&G 6,140,828 457,144 7.44 80,862 82,300 1.78

LG 1,621,191 120,096 7.41 176,857 194,500 9.98

23,886,497 1,761,402 7.37 37,140 43,050 15.91

LG 13,362,112 973,869 7.29 61,048 61,500 0.74

:

2015. 2. 26

7

20

(: , )

13.0 2,289,663 408,870 1,880,793 31,823,840 252,681 7,940

3.6 1,817,049 375,706 1,441,343 10,361,008 310,830 30,000

LG 3.1 1,040,930 29,529 1,011,401 13,727,843 164,047 11,950

11.9 956,541 67,459 889,082 10,111,351 28,615 2,830

14.4 738,373 253,849 484,524 4,995,043 289,212 57,900

6.6 581,936 152,413 429,523 13,683,976 175,154 12,800

16.0 975,411 570,635 404,776 36,992,601 715,806 19,350

6.2 358,600 - 358,600 4,619,122 6,836 1,480

1.8 364,227 64,227 300,000 9,945,890 135,264 13,600

3.1 330,837 52,553 278,284 5,569,712 8,438 1,515

1.3 266,000 - 266,000 992,425 10,420 10,500

9.1 259,456 2,777 256,679 8,876,782 439,400 49,500

SK C&C 3.5 219,176 288 218,888 1,733,856 378,847 218,500

15.3 291,857 79,100 212,757 11,586,486 1,326,652 114,500

3.0 203,005 2,057 200,948 4,684,840 44,224 9,440

14.9 492,353 313,387 178,966 25,236,559 228,895 9,070

5.3 238,100 61,888 176,212 2,012,102 98,291 48,850

2.8 263,492 88,529 174,963 3,810,811 594,486 156,000

14.0 220,210 53,302 166,908 8,234,322 381,249 46,300

0.9 166,002 6,759 159,243 6,017,453 274,094 45,550

:

20

(: , )

34.3 95,890 727,793 -631,903 13,715,705 590,461 43,050

27.8 13,654 94,001 -80,347 2,501,002 325,130 130,000

OCI 24.8 77,830 84,677 -6,847 5,906,414 550,477 93,200

23.6 20,869 16,722 4,147 4,723,658 342,937 72,600

23.0 230,368 216,667 13,701 44,103,832 842,383 19,100

GS 19.8 17,962 404,275 -386,313 14,023,445 397,564 28,350

19.1 47,366 18,041 29,325 19,562,562 83,923 4,290

NHN 18.9 25,046 10,200 14,846 2,860,887 199,689 69,800

16.8 37,290 13,505 23,785 6,580,464 671,207 102,000

16.0 975,411 570,635 404,776 36,992,601 715,806 19,350

LG 15.9 3,094 129,620 -126,526 2,634,566 121,321 46,050

15.3 291,857 79,100 212,757 11,586,486 1,326,652 114,500

14.9 492,353 313,387 178,966 25,236,559 228,895 9,070

14.4 738,373 253,849 484,524 4,995,043 289,212 57,900

14.3 67,046 6,000 61,046 6,833,110 129,145 18,900

14.3 46,586 1,176 45,410 13,593,193 83,462 6,140

14.1 2,800 93,392 -90,592 1,799,589 54,167 30,100

14.0 220,210 53,302 166,908 8,234,322 381,249 46,300

13.8 4,247 193 4,054 2,897,962 40,426 13,950

13.3 1,048 15,714 -14,666 2,289,822 90,218 39,400

:

2015. 2. 26

8

KOSPI vs KOSDAQ vs

410

450

490

530

570

610

650

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

(pt)(pt) KOSPI()

KOSDAQ()

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

()

: :

vs

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

(%)

3

5

7

9

11

13

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

()

: :

MSCI G7 vs MSCI vs

800

950

1,100

1,250

1,400

1,550

1,700

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

(pt) MSCI G7

MSCI

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

9,000

10,500

12,000

13,500

15,000

16,500

18,000

19,500

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

(pt)(pt) ()

()


225 vs A vs SENSEX 30

6,500

7,200

7,900

8,600

9,300

10,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

(pt)() 225()

()

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

27,000

30,000

33,000

1,800

2,200

2,600

3,000

3,400

3,800

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

(pt)(pt) A()

SENSEX 30()

: Datastream : Datastream,

2015. 2. 26

9

/ vs /100 / vs /

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

() ()/()

/100()

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

()() /()

/()


2 vs 10 3 vs AA- 3

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

(%) (%) (2,)

(10,)

2

3

4

5

6

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

(%) (%) (3,)

AA- (3,)


CRB vs WTI vs

20

40

60

80

100

120

180

220

260

300

340

380

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

($/bbl)(pt) CRB ()

WTI()

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

(pt)($/oz) ()

()


DRAM2 1GB vs NAND FLASH 32GB MLC LME 3M vs LME 3M

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

'14/4 '14/6 '14/8 '14/10 '14/12 '15/2

($)($) DDR3 2Gb 256Mx8 1333 MHz ()

NAND FLASH 64GB MLC()

1,400

1,700

2,000

2,300

2,600

2,900

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

'10/1 '10/10 '11/7 '12/4 '13/1 '13/10 '14/7 '15/4

($/ton)($/ton) LME 3M()

LME 3M()

: Datastream, : Datastream

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