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Analyst 02) 3787-4764

sangku@kiwoom.com

(015760)BUY(Maintain)

(3/12) 36,350

48,000

2014. 3. 13

,

.

, ,

,

.

,

.

.

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(015760)Stock Data

KOSPI (3/12) 1,932.54pt

() 233,354

52

37,650 24,850

/ -3.32% 46.48%

1M -0.3% -1.9%

6M 19.3% 21.8%

1Y 13.0% 15.3%

Company Data

() 641,964

(3M) 1,292

24.78%

(13.E) 0.86%

BPS(13.E) 77,980

( 1 ) 64.2%

Price Trend

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

'13/3 '13/5 '13/7 '13/10 '13/12 '14/3

(%)() ()

()

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

FY 1993 FY 1999 FY 2005 FY 2011

()()

3

3()

3()

Contents

I. Investment Summary 4

> , 3

> ,

3

> , 4

II. , 5

> , 5

III. 12

> 12

> 13

> 14

> 1999~2004 16

> 2013, 17

IV. VALUATION 18

> 18

> 19

> 19

3 12 (015760) 1% . 3 . . , .

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3

I. Investment Summary

, , , ,

. , ,

.

, ,

.

, .

,

, , , , .

. ,

.

.

1. . 2004.

2. 3

, , .

3. /. /,

.

4. , .

, , 5. JR . 87

, , .

6. KTX

. ,

.

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4

,

. 2014,

3, ,

. , , .

, .

, .

, ,

.

,

,

, IFRS 2011 2012 2013P 2014E 2015E() 434,557 494,215 540,378 582,342 608,421

() -10,205 -8,179 15,180 59,591 75,620

() -10,205 -8,179 15,180 59,591 75,620

EBITDA() 58,569 61,788 92,058 136,388 153,994

() -24,731 -40,633 -3,965 34,052 50,893

() -32,930 -30,780 1,744 25,812 38,577

() -33,705 -31,666 1,713 25,063 39,688

EPS() -5,251 -4,933 267 3,904 6,182

(%YoY) 1,363.0 58.4

PER() -4.9 -6.2 130.2 9.3 6.1

PBR(

) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4EV/EBITDA() 10.4 11.4 8.9 6.6 6.1

(%) -2.3 -1.7 2.8 10.2 12.4

(%) -2.3 -1.7 2.8 10.2 12.7

ROE(%) -5.9 -5.9 0.3 4.9 6.8

(%) 84.0 101.1 115.8 121.8 125.3

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5

II. ,

, , KTX

, , .

. 2

.

.

.

. , , .

JR 3, JR 3, /

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

FY 1993 FY 1998 FY 2003 FY 2008 FY 2013

()

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY 1993 FY 1998 FY 2003 FY 2008 FY 2013

()

: , : ,

, ,

JR. ,

. 1987 JR 6 1, 7

. (7) 1980

.

, , ,

. ,

. 6

. , , 2002, 2004, 2006

, , .

,

, .

. .

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6

, .

().

.

.

/

, .

.

7JR

/

(JR )

(JR )

, ,

(JR )

(JR )

, ,

(JR )

(JR )

(JR )

(

' ')

: ,

, E6, E3 /N700, 700

: , : ,

http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8C%8C%EC%9D%BC:JR_logo_(freight).svghttp://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8C%8C%EC%9D%BC:JR_logo_(freight).svghttp://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8C%8C%EC%9D%BC:JR_logo_(kyushu).svghttp://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8C%8C%EC%9D%BC:JR_logo_(shikoku).svghttp://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8C%8C%EC%9D%BC:JR_logo_(west).svghttp://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8C%8C%EC%9D%BC:JR_logo_(central).svghttp://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8C%8C%EC%9D%BC:JR_logo_(east).svghttp://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%8C%8C%EC%9D%BC:JR_logo_(hokkaido).svg

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7

JR

3.

1) , , .

.

.

JR3 JR3

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

FY 1993 FY 1999 FY 2005 FY 2011

()

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY 1993 FY 1998 FY 2003 FY 2008 FY 2013

()

: , : ,

2) , .

. .

,

.

JR3 JR3

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

FY 1993 FY 1999 FY 2005 FY 2011

()

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

FY 2005 FY 2007 FY 2009 FY 2011 FY 2013

()

: , : ,

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3) . .

,

. .

.

.

3() 3

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

FY 1993 FY 1998 FY 2003 FY 2008 FY 2013

(%) 3

3

0

2,000

4,0006,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

FY 2005 FY 2007 FY 2009 FY 2011 FY 2013

()

: , : ,

, ,

EPS .

JR3 JR3EPS

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

FY 1993 FY 1998 FY 2003 FY 2008 FY 2013

()

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY 1993 FY 1998 FY 2003 FY 2008 FY 2013

(/)

: , : ,

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9

,

, ,

,

.

1990 CPI . 2011 0.8% 20

. CPI

, , ,

.

10%. ,

. . .

2000 2005.

.

CPI .

, 10% , ( )

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

19,774 19,194 19,539 20,231 20,839 23,316

7,875 7,109 6,942 7,006 6,993 7,425

2,233 2,266 2,399 2,247 2,148 2,330

2,478 2,087 2,211 2,411 2,482 2,551

3,592 3,563 3,900 4,626 5,057 5,823

3,599 3,406 3,246 3,361 3,479 4,382

12.5% 10.9% 11.3% 11.9% 11.9% 10.9%

: ,

.

.

1990CPI0.8% ,

-2

0

2

4

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(%) CPI yoy

1993~2011CPI 0.8

0

10

20

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(/KWh) total

power

: , : ,

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10

. ,

.

2000 , ()

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

FY 1993 FY 1998 FY 2003 FY 2008 FY 2013

()

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

()

: , : ,

,

. ,

.

.

,

.

.

.

.

. ,

.

.

, . ROE

CAPM ROE.(

)

.

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11

JR. .

. 25.4

11.7 37.1.

JR 70% 25.5

JR 11.6.

JR.

.

, 37.170% (: )

: ,

JR

.

,

.

(JR 3) ,

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

()

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

() 3

: , : ,

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12

III.

.

, , ,

. , ,

.

.

GDP,

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

()

25

30

35

40

45

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(%)

: , : ,

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

0

200

400

600

800

30

30

()

: , : , (2012 )

3 2014 5

.

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2.

3 8 4. ,.

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, ( )

() 6477 172.3 141.7 30.5 7.5 0.4 0.4

37931 21.7 17.6 4 2.4 -0.1 -5.2

19634 152.1 102.2 49.9 25.5 -0.4 -1.4

9555 46.6 26 20.6 3.8 0.7 0.2

2017 8.1 4.4 3.7 2.3 0.3 0.2

2199 6.7 3.2 3.5 2.7 0.1 0.1

1951 7.1 3.6 3.4 3.7 0.1 0.1

2194 6.4 3.4 3 3 0.2 0.1

1974 6.6 3.4 3.3 2.9 0.2 0.1

3347 40.5 32 8.5 20.4 1.1 0.3

1310 30.6 19.4 11.2 5.2 0.4 -0.2

: , ( 13 , 13 )

2.

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. LNG

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14

,

.

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.

/, , /

, . 3,

.

.

, ,

()

()

O O O OFGEM O

X O O CRE O

O O O MCEAERAEMC O

O O O FERC O

O() O() X( ) X O

O X X X X X

: ,

/, .

.

.

.

.

.

1980 ~1990, .

, KT, .

.

.

.

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15

1:(CBP)

2:(TWBP)

3:(PBP)

09) 00)KPX/ 01) /CBP

( )

04)

, 04)

2000

2003

2009

:

,

.

, .

. CBP SMP

.

100% SMP,

.

SMP

,

. . SMP 100%

. SMP .

.

100 200.

()

. ,

.

,

. . 90%

.. SMP

, .

,

.

/. ,

. KTX/

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. .

.

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16

1999~2004

1999 3

. ,

.

1, , , CBP

2, ()

3,

. .

.

. . ,

, , 2004

.

10.

: ,

2004

.

, .

2004.

2004 MB.

, 4.

UAE

.

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17

2013,

.

.

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)

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( )

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()

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18

IV. Valuation

.

. 5.

.

. 3.

1) , 2) , 3)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

() P/B BandPrice 0.9x0.7x 0.5x

0.3x 0.1x

:

2014

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

(%)(x) ROE vs. Forward P/BROE(RHS)

Fwd P/B

:

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19

. .

,

.

.

. .

3

.

.

1

.

.

, . 1,2 .

.

, 1990

.

2014 6

2014 6, 2.5.

,

5.4%.

( )

13. 1Q 13. 2Q 13. 3Q 13. 4QP 14. 1QE 14. 2QE 14. 3QE 14. 4QE 2012 2013P 2014E 137,991 116,763 142,880 142,744 156,034 127,488 155,155 143,665 494,215 540,378 582,342

(GWh) 125,023 114,067 119,718 117,391 128,742 117,414 122,475 120,789 466,973 474,849 489,421 63,550 58,184 59,241 60,876 58,989 51,839 54,487 58,690 238,232 242,003 224,005

27,823 27,367 25,459 31,600 33,387 28,166 25,672 33,428 98,008 113,289 120,653 6,578 -10,941 15,473 4,071 17,772 2,486 30,693 8,640 -8,179 15,190 59,591

2,080 -17,382 13,310 -1,974 11,482 -4,088 24,410 2,248 -40,633 -3,965 34,051 1,604 -15,849 9,737 6,251 8,703 -3,099 18,503 1,704 -30,780 1,743 25,811

: ,

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2017, .

138TWh, 191TWh 29.1%, 40.3%

170TWh, 195TWh 34.8%, 39.9%.

71.1%76.3%.

5,6 2 2017

18GW. 1

.

( : TWh) 201718GW ,

2013 2014 474 489 3.2% 138 170 23.2% 29.1% 34.8% 191 195 2.1% 40.3% 39.9% 337 373 10.7% 71.1% 76.3% 24.2 22.4 -7.4%

14 2 1

14 6 5 0.87

14 12 6 0.87

15 3 1.4

16 4 1.4

15

11

IGCC 0.3815 12 9 1

15 12 1 1

16 2 1 0.6

16 6 2 0.6

16 6 10 1

16 6 2 1

16 6 9 1

16 6 1 1

16 12 10 1

17 4 1 1.4

17 6 2 1

17 12 2 1.4

: , : ,

5

.

,

. 2 27 2017 6

5.9.

5.

5.

, 5

() ( ) () 7 7 7 -1.7 1.8 133 143 -32,266 22,021

1.1 3.3 121 152 1,250 19,373

3.1 3.7 98 130 1,742 4,132

3 1.9 89 144 1,034 2,526

3.6 4.1 76 107 1,672 4,655

2.9 2.2 81 155 1,054 2,613

3.4 3 96 159 1,286 3,790

-24,228 59,110(12-30,780): ,

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48.000

ROE empirical model

PBR=0.2*ROE-0.38.

ROE=4.9% PBR=0.6. PBR 14

BPS 81,599.

ROE

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

(PBR)

(ROE %)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

(PBR)

(ROE %)

: , : ,

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22

(2 24)

. ,

2014 2.3% 1.3%, CPI

.

9%

. ,

.

, .

2011524%, 729%

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12

(%)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

'10/1 '10/9 '11/5 '12/1 '12/9 '13/5

(%)

: , (2011 , , ) : ,

'11/1 '11/5 '11/7 '11/10 '11/11 '12/6 '12/8 '13/1 '13/2 '13/8 '13/11 '14/1 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.0% 5.4% 5.5% 2.7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 0.5% 6.1%: ,

90, ,

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

(B$, , TWh) GDP

: , KEEI, ( : , TWh, GDP B$)

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23

,

, 4% .

3~4% .

, , ,

(/L)(/L)

(/L)

(B-C)(/L)

LPG(/kg) LNG(/kg)

(/)

(/kwh) (/kcal)

3%, 3% 3% 3% - - - -() - 0% 2% - - - -

- 90 - 17 20 252 60 - - - -

- 90 - 17 20 275 60 - - - -

475 - 337 - - - - - - - -

529 - 337 - - - - - - - -

79.35 13.50 55.25 2.55 - 41.25 - - - - - 137.54 - 97.50 - - - - - - - - 164 107 149 93 118 157 110 - 12 6 73 16 16 16 16 - - 24.2 - - - - 0.470 0.470 0.470 0.470 0.027 0.027 - - - - - - - - - 4.5 4.5 4.9 - - - - (36) - - - - 62.28 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4.44 2.14 - () 926.36 226.97 694.22 129.02 142.53 540.06 199.10 - 16.40 8.14 73.00

51.30% 20.20% 42.20% 12.70% 11.00% 29.50% 16.40% - 12.00% 12.30% 8.43%

('12.7) 1,804 1,122 1,642 1,019 1,300 1,834 1,214 391 137 66 866: (2012 ),

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(: ) (: )12 2011 2012 2013P 2014E 2015E 12 2011 2012 2013P 2014E 2015E 434,557 494,215 540,378 582,342 608,421 137,676 139,335 161,887 175,770 185,019

427,249 484,593 506,286 503,226 511,074 13,879 19,549 35,619 42,008 47,550

7,308 9,623 34,092 79,116 97,347 7,798 6,604 7,295 7,862 8,214 17,512 17,802 18,911 19,525 20,078 76,337 75,873 77,197 80,881 82,219

() -10,205 -8,179 15,180 59,591 75,620 38,518 34,403 38,598 41,596 43,459

() -10,205 -8,179 15,180 59,591 75,620 1,144 2,906 3,177 3,424 3,577

-14,527 -32,454 -19,146 -25,539 -26,376 1,227,003 1,322,193 1,434,686 1,548,660 1,657,240

2,916 2,041 1,768 1,743 2,519 10,310 9,704 10,611 11,435 11,947

189 105 116 -2 129 75,678 77,442 86,906 95,943 104,135

1,974 9,437 8,143 0 0 1,123,849 1,223,761 1,326,728 1,431,604 1,532,171

21,236 23,443 24,080 25,628 30,500 8,487 8,838 7,994 7,230 6,539

3,728 1,114 8,805 0 0 8,679 2,448 2,448 2,448 2,448

1,231 1,769 246 0 0 1,364,679 1,461,528 1,555,527 1,724,430 1,842,259

75 -64 -272 0 0 177,412 188,171 226,426 237,567 246,604

746 -6,418 -1,384 -7,600 -4,000 95,998 96,786 105,827 114,045 119,153

3,305 -14,768 5,124 5,948 5,476 11,736 6,893 33,893 33,893 33,893

-24,731 -40,633 -3,965 34,052 49,244 59,610 71,288 71,288 71,288 71,288

8,199 -9,854 -5,709 8,241 11,917 10,068 13,204 15,419 18,341 22,271

(%) -33.2% 24.3% 144.0% 24.2% 24.2% 649,227 762,715 857,761 950,536 1,029,477

-32,930 -30,780 1,744 25,812 37,327 33,344 38,305 41,882 45,135 47,156

-33,705 -31,666 1,713 25,063 38,402 402,065 464,101 531,101 598,101 660,101

EBITDA 58,569 61,788 92,058 136,388 153,994 213,818 260,310 284,778 307,300 322,220

(Cash Earnings) 35,844 39,187 78,621 102,609 114,051 826,639 950,886 1,040,765 1,188,102 1,276,081

-34,023 -25,870 2,999 31,572 40,359 32,098 32,098 32,098 32,098 32,098

(%, YoY) 8,438 8,438 8,438 8,438 8,438

10.0 13.7 9.3 7.8 4.5 357,691 325,643 327,356 350,593 381,692

() N/A N/A N/A 292.6 26.9 134,476 132,709 132,709 132,709 132,709

() N/A N/A N/A 292.6 29.7 532,703 498,888 500,601 523,838 554,937

EBITDA -30.0 5.5 49.0 48.2 12.9 5,337 11,754 11,785 12,490 11,241

N/A N/A N/A 1,363.0 53.2 538,040 510,642 514,507 536,328 566,178

EPS N/A N/A N/A 1,363.0 53.2 451,733 516,129 593,367 653,412 709,518

N/A N/A N/A 952.7 27.8 473,410 542,282 636,282 703,282 765,282

(: ) (: , , %)

12 2011 2012 2013P 2014E 2015E 12 2011 2012 2013P 2014E 2015E 40,826 38,684 86,679 109,134 121,245 ()

-32,930 -30,780 1,744 25,812 37,327 EPS -5,251 -4,933 267 3,904 5,982

67,827 69,034 76,034 76,034 76,034 BPS 82,980 77,713 77,980 81,599 86,444

947 934 844 764 691 EBITDA 9,126 9,625 14,340 21,245 23,988

2,260 -7,669 662 0 0 CFPS 5,585 6,104 12,247 15,984 17,766

3,666 3,547 272 0 0 DPS 0 0 300 1,200 1,600

0 0 -246 0 0 ()

-10,467 -16,812 8,136 6,641 7,192 PER -4.9 -6.2 130.2 9.3 6.1

9,522 20,430 -767 -116 2 PBR 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

-111,335

-

116,708

-

189,077

-

190,398

-

185,146 EV/EBITDA 10.4 11.4 8.9 6.6 6.1

-4,980 -2,872 -9,847 -9,488 -8,546 PCFR 4.6 5.0 2.8 2.3 2.0

506 1,006 0 0 0 (%)

-106,104

-

114,468

-

179,000

-

180,910

-

176,600()

-2.3 -1.7 2.8 10.2 12.4

-421 -663 0 0 0 () -2.3 -1.7 2.8 10.2 12.7

-336 290 -230 0 0 EBITDA margin 13.5 12.5 17.0 23.4 25.3

63,414 83,755 118,468 87,653 69,443 -7.6 -6.2 0.3 4.4 6.1

1,140 -4,762 27,000 0 0 (ROE) -5.9 -5.9 0.3 4.9 6.8

60,830 81,844 67,000 67,000 62,000 (ROIC) -1.2 -0.5 0.9 3.3 4.1

0 0 0 0 0 (%,)

-447 -553 0 -1,869 -7,476 153.6 186.2 211.6 221.5 225.4

1,890 7,225 24,468 22,522 14,920 84.0 101.1 115.8 121.8 125.3

-7,021 5,670 16,070 6,389 5,542 () N/A N/A 0.6 2.3 2.5

20,901 13,879 19,549 35,619 42,008 ()

13,879 19,549 35,619 42,008 47,550 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.4 7.5

Gross Cash Flow 51,292 55,496 78,543 102,493 114,053 11.8 13.6 14.8 14.5 14.3

Op Free Cash Flow -61,805 -68,172 -82,479 -52,302 -34,113 5.4 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.2

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25

(2) (2) 2012/05/02 Buy(Maintain) 34,000(015760) 2012/05/11 Buy(Maintain) 34,000

2012/05/16 Buy(Maintain) 34,000

2012/06/04 Buy(Maintain) 34,0002012/07/13 Buy(Maintain) 34,000

2012/07/25 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2012/07/30 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2012/08/06 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2012/08/13 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2012/09/10 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2012/09/26 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2012/11/05 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2012/11/13 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2012/11/15 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2013/01/04 Buy(Maintain) 37,000

2013/01/10 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/01/28 Buy(Maintain) 42,0002013/02/27 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/03/15 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/03/28 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/04/01 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/04/15 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/04/18 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/04/22 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/04/29 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/05/02 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/05/13 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/05/21 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/05/27 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/06/21 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/06/26 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/07/16 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/08/12 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/08/20 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/09/11 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/09/27 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/10/16 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/10/28 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/11/08 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/11/13 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/11/14 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/11/20 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2013/12/11 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2014/01/10 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2014/01/17 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2014/02/11 Buy(Maintain) 42,000

2014/02/24 Buy(Maintain) 48,000

2014/03/13 Buy(Maintain) 48,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

'12/3/13 '13/3/13 '14/3/13

()

(6) (6)Buy()

Outperform( )

Marketperform()

Underperform( )

Sell()

+20%

+10 ~ +20%

+10 ~-10%

-10 ~-20%

-20%

Overweight ()

Neutral ()

Underweight ()

+10%

+10 ~ -10%

-10%