Fortnight Publications Ltd.

Unpopular OpinionsAuthor(s): Sydney ElliottSource: Fortnight, No. 282 (Mar., 1990), pp. 6-7Published by: Fortnight Publications Ltd.Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25552292 .

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BRIEFING Sara Parkin?persuasive performer

Greens sprout

LAST MONTH saw one 'green'

party on the way down, and one for

whom the only way is up.

Remarkably, for the second time

in succession the Sinn Fein ard

fheis in Dublin was overshadowed

by an IRA 'mistake' replete with

symbolism. Last year it was the

killing of the police reservist Harry

Keyes while visiting his girlfriend in Donegal. This year it was the

"freak accident" of the death of the

teenage party member Charles Love

in the IRA blast at the Bloody Sunday commemoration in Derry.

Mr Love's death had had "a very serious effect" on republicans,

Martin McGuinness told Fortnight. "All we're hoping is that it doesn't

happen again." Last year, Gerry Adams had told

IRA volunteers from the ard fheis

rostrum to be "careful and careful

again". Fewer civilians were in

deed killed by the IRA in 1989, but

only because the IRA scored fewer

hits: civilians actually comprised a

greater proportion of IRA victims

in the north last year (39 per cent) than in 1988 (31 per cent). In the

light of Sinn Fein's poor showing in the district council elections, the

political report from the leadership

drily recorded: "Clearly, Sinn Fein

is held accountable at local level

for all aspects of the republican

struggle." The ard fheis was also the first

gathering of the faithful since the elections in the south last June. Mr

Adams had said that Sinn Fein's

electoral prospects should not be

judged at the first outing in the

Republic, but at the second. Yet a

share of just 1.9 per cent in 1987

fell to a mere 1.2 per cent in June.

Speakers from the ard

chomhairle tended to blame the

broadcasting curbs for the party's dismal tally. But some delegates,

particularly from Dublin, were less

sanguine. Eoin Bennett said party members there had been "almost in

a state of shock" when the results

were declared.

In his presidential address, Mr

Adams issued a warning. Failure to

"correct our weaknesses in a deter

mined and systematic manner", he

said, would have "serious conse

quences for our struggle". But the

West Belfast MP offers no "magic formula" for change. "It's just a

matter of doing more political work,

party-building and keeping in," he

told Fortnight.

The IRA, again remarkably, chose the weekend of the ard fheis

to disrupt the rail link between

Belfast and Dublin, after a lull in

attacks since the 'Peace Train'

organised by by New Consensus

and others. New Consensus was

back in force at the Mansion

House?a 150-strong gathering of

TDs, senators, churchpeople, trade

unionists and celebrities picketed

part of the ard fheis, demanding an

end to the military campaign. Even more remarkable, how

ever, was that in the wake of the

one innovation of the ard fheis?

tentative talk of dialogue with ' Protestants'?the IRA should have

placed a bomb at Shorts, and warned

of more to come.

On the up last month, by con

trast, was the Green party of North

ern Ireland, launched at a press conference in Queen's. Gone was

the brown-rice-and-sandals image of the old Ecology party?though

Malcolm Samuel polled over 6,500

votes in the Euro-election last June.

Now, with a more professional

organisation, the experience of

British Greens and the buzz of a

Green in the Dail, the party is set

fair for rapid initial progress. Sara Parkin, the leading British

Green (in as much as Greens have

leaders) and co-secretary of the

Euro-Greens, gave a sure-footed

performance at Queen's. Thrown

the googly of the 'national ques

tion', she replied with eyelids un

batted that the answer lay in the

Greens' continent-wide objective of a "Europe of the regions".

Last month's Belfast Telegraph

poll showed the Conservatives had

already overtaken the Alliance party and Sinn Fein as fourth largest party. It's a pretty safe bet that that'green'

party will be overtaken by the Green

one too before the century is out.

Robin Wilson

Unpopular opinions

THE Ulster Marketing Surveys poll for Newsnight and the Belfast Tele

graph at the end of January indi

cated a further weakening of sup

port for the Anglo-Irish Agreement. One of the main sources of press

comment since 1985 has been

whether unionist opposition would

remain firm. But the three UMS

polls since December 1985 have

seen the proportion of Protestants

who either 'strongly oppose' or

'tend to oppose' the accord rising

slightly from 68 per cent (1985) to 72 per cent (1989) and 74 per cent now. Forty-eight per cent still

oppose it strongly.

Opposition is one thing, protest another. The poll measured sup

port for two remaining vehicles?

the boycott of meetings with NIO ministers and the refusal to enter

talks with other parties. Of unionist

respondents, the ending of the

boycott was supported by 56 per

cent, with only 31 per cent op

posed, while 49 per cent opposed the refusal to talk, as against 41 per cent who endorsed it.

There was a marked difference

according to party affiliation,

however. While60 percent of UUP

supporters favoured talks, 58 per cent of DUP supporters did not.

And while 67 per cent of UUP

supporters favoured an end to the

boycott, 48 per cent of DUP sup

porters wanted it to stay. Unionists

on Ards, Newtownabbey and Down

councils have already decided to

meet ministers, but popular opin ion seems ahead of the politicians.

Catholic support for the agree ment has tended to be taken for

granted, but the proportion of

Catholics who 'strongly support' it

has fallen from 22 per cent (1985), to 17 per cent (1989) and 9 per cent

now, while the combined figure of

those Catholics who 'strongly' or

'tend to' support it has declined

from 60 per cent in 1985 to 41 per cent in both 1989 and 1990. The

percentage tending to oppose or

strongly opposing the agreement has meanwhile risen from 11 in

1985 to 21 in 1990. As to the popular impact of the

accord, the statement put by the

pollsters that it had improved rela

tions betwen Protestants and Catho

lics was rejected by 81 percent(87

per cent Protestant, 72 per cent

Catholic) and endorsed by only 9

per cent. By contrast, the assertion

that it had made no difference to the

political situation met assent from

65 per cent (67 per cent Protestant,

61 per cent Catholic), with only 27

per cent dissenting.

Replicating regular poll ques

tions, seven options were set out

for the political future. The 'most

acceptable' option question saw

integration (28 percent) increasing its lead over a power-sharing as

sembly (21 percent), largely due to

an increase (albeit only to 10 per

cent) in Catholic support for the

integrationist option; 21 per cent

meanwhile supported majority rule.

The option of Northern Ireland

becoming part of the Republic was

supported by 11 per cent, being

part of a federal Ireland by 8 per cent and being independent by 2

per cent. The most marked fall over

time has been in support for direct

rule, which came out at only 4 per cent?before 1985 it rivalled

power-sharing and was the most

6 March Fortnight

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popular second choice.

The poll also asked which of the seven options were simply 'accept able'. Power-sharing, with 71 per cent acceptability (75 per cent of

Protestants, 64 per cent of Catho

lics), vied with integration at 70 per cent (88 per cent Protestant and 44

per cent Catholic). Much signifi cance was attached by the media to

the level of support for power

sharing, but this has been mani

fested in polls for over 15 years. There was no significant differ

ence in the profile of the supporters of these two options?the real ques tion is which is attainable and work

able. Majority rule was supported

by 63 per cent, direct rule by 34 per cent, a federal Ireland by 31 per cent, unification 26 per cent and in

dependence 25 per cent.

The final area covered was party

support. This came out (with the

share of the vote in last year's dis

trict council elections in parenthe

sis) at: UUP 26 (30.1), SDLP 19 (20.8), DUP 13 (18.6), Conserva

tive 11 (1), Alliance 9 (6.9), SF 5 (11.1), WP 4 (2.2), others 1(9.3),

would not vote 6, undecided 6.

Sydney Elliott

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I KR/INCOOPFf?/P/-/n7r)///VF The secretary of state, Peter Brooke, last month recognised Fortnights leading role?though only apparently that of its editor, Robin Wilson (right)?when he

reopened the magazine's premises in the

university area of Belfast, renovated with the assistance of a substantial loan from the Joseph Rowntree Social Service Trust and many donations, including from the

Barrow Cadbury Fund. At the reopening plans were disclosed

for an educational arm for Fortnight, assisted by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. This will produce regular magazine supplements, organise seminars and conferences and prepare educational materials with the new school curriculum in mind.

They might have asked

NORTHERN Ireland's main job creation agency, the Industrial De

velopment Board, comes under

close scrutiny in a Northern Ireland

Economic Council report published late last month.

At issue is the difference be

tween the job 'promotions' figures

publicised by the IDB?in effect

promises from clients?and the

'real' jobs eventually created by IDB-assisted firms. NIEC found

that in the first six years of the

board's existence, 1982-88, the 305

companies assisted created 9,263

jobs?just 40 per cent of the 'pro motions' claimed by the IDB, run

ning at 4-5,000 each year during this time.

So is the IDB doing as good a

job as can be expected in difficult

circumstances, or is public money

being thrown wastefully at compa nies without adequate checks on

how it is spent?

Unfortunately, it is impossible to compare the board's perform ance with the development agen cies in Scotland and Wales since

they too fail to keep records of how

their assistance is translated into

real jobs. And comparisons with

the Industrial Development Agency in the Republic are not easy be

cause of its different remit, the very favourable tax regime for industry

there and the different way in which

it measures 'job creations'. Never

theless, the IDA did create 11,000

jobs each year in the same period. It does appear though that the

IDB will now publish job creation

figures?the economy minister, Richard Needham, promised as

much in an interview with the

Money Programme, to which the

report was leaked. While it is dis

turbing that the board has appar

ently not had the capability to

undertake this measurement in the

past, a review is also vital?as the

council recommends?of how

applications for assistance are as

sessed. Most jobs are created in

firms which have been in business

for some time, and it is often hard to

decide whether they could have

expanded without public money.

Accountability and efficient use

of public funds are important

enough issues raised by the report, but so is its demonstration that a

policy based largely on the attrac

tion of inward investment is inca

pable of solving Northern Ireland's

economic problems in the 1990s.

Just 34 IDB client companies

managed to create more than 100

new jobs between 1982 and 1988, and these firms accounted for three

quarters of all jobs created. A study

by the Northern Ireland Economic

Research Centre, commissioned by the Money Programme, showed that

only 30 of the 305 firms assisted were in new factories set up by

companies from outside Northern

Ireland, these employing 1,500

people. So all the IDB's efforts to

attract external investment resulted

in just 300 new jobs a year during the 1980s (although the arrival of

Montupet and Daewoo will help). And just one of these firms loca

lated in the areas of highest unem

ployment west of the Bann.

The attraction of large new

factories from outside Northern

Ireland remains the only way to

generate new jobs quickly, but

clearly it is no longer possible for

this strategy to make major inroads

into unemployment, nor even to

provide the basis for long-term economic regeneration. Mr Need

ham may or may not be correct

when he says that an annual growth rate of around 8 per cent is needed

to bring down the unemployment total. But, in an area dependent on

the government for its very sur

vival, such a miracle cannot hap

pen without coherent and positive action by the state to deal with the

problems on both supply and de

mand sides of the economy.

Nigel Guy

Sectarian, sexist

THE decision by Belfast City Council last month to stop support

ing the Falls Road Women's Centre

could mean its closure and a major loss for women?on both sides of

the community. At a meeting of the community

services committee in December it

was proposed that the centre' s grant should be stopped due to alleged

political links with Sinn Fein. The

claims were contested, however, and the motion was withdrawn.

Nevertheless, the grant was

stopped on the grounds that the

centre provided services which were

the responsibility of statutory au

thorities. Yet the classes available

in the centre are not the sort which

the Belfast Education and Library Board would be prepared to fund,

and realistically the Eastern Health

Board could not provide for nurs

ery and creche facilities.

Women's groups from all over

Belfast have voiced their concern

at what they see as both a sexist and

sectarian decision. The opponents have included the Shankill and

Ballybeen women's centres?both

in overwhelmingly Protestant

working-class areas?as well as

loyalist councillors like Elizabeth

Seawright and Hugh Smyth.

Sharon Copeland

Fortnight March 7

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