University of ColoradoUniversity of Coloradoat Boulderat Boulder

An Integrated Assessment for Barrow, AlaskaAn Integrated Assessment for Barrow, Alaska

Ron Brunner, Amanda Lynch, & colleaguesRon Brunner, Amanda Lynch, & colleaguesJim Maslanik, PIJim Maslanik, PI

Funded by Office of Polar Programs Funded by Office of Polar Programs National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation

Context & Climate ChangeContext & Climate Change

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Data from the NOAA ETOPO-5 dataset

Barrow

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Climate Change & Variability

Barrow has a history manifest in major extreme events

• 4 to 6 October 1954 • 3 October 1963 – the most damaging

Fewer big storms mid-1960s to mid-1980s• 12 & 20 September 1986• 25 February 1989• 10 August 2000• 5 & 8 October 2002• 29 July 2003

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3 October 1963

Photo by Grace Redding

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3 October 1963

Photo by Grace Redding

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Barrow Is SignificantBarrow Is Significant

• Much experience exists there to build upon– Including extreme events & policy responses

• Harvesting that experience is important for– Continuing improvements in policy responses in Barrow

– Informing responses in other Alaska Native villages

– Reconsidering climate science & policy generally

• Context matters because Barrow is unique– Every other local community worldwide is also unique

– Also, some trends in Barrow differ from Arctic trends

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Our Integrated AssessmentOur Integrated Assessment

• Designed to expand range of informed choices for people in Barrow

• Focused on erosion & flooding problems• Approach is intensive

– Centered on Barrow

– Comprehensive in range of factors studied

– Integrative in focus on extreme events

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Old Barrow Townsite

Photo by Dora Nelson

Barrow’s Vulnerabilities

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Other Vulnerabilities

August 2002 QuickBird Satellite Image

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Multiple Vulnerability Factors Multiple Vulnerability Factors

• Rising temperatures, until recently

• Deeper permafrost thaw

• More fetch from sea-ice retreat

• More frequent & intense storms?

• Trend is unclear

• More community development

• Other human factors

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• Declining since 1990s

• Other indicators

• Fewer very cold days

• Shorter cold spells

• Earlier spring thaw

Barrow winter minimum temperatures

Rising TemperaturesRising Temperatures

Credit: Claudia Tebaldi

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Permafrost Thaw Depth

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• Sea ice retreat

• Largest in west

• Affects fetch next autumn

1997BarrowBarrow

Credit: James Maslanik

More FetchMore Fetch

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High Wind Events

• Low frequency

period

• Linear or cyclical trend?

• Increases in variability

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Oct 63 storm

Strong Easterlies

Strong Westerlies

Classification of Arctic Pressure Systems

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Strong Easterlies

Strong Westerlies

-2/decade

+1.8/decade

+1.6/decade

Elizabeth Cassano, Melinda Koslow, and Amanda Lynch

Classification of Arctic Pressure Systems

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• Erosion is relatively small

• No erosion SE of gravel pit

• Highest erosion is at the bluffs: 34 m in 50 years

• Erosion is mostly episodic

Erosion Erosion 1948 - 19971948 - 1997

Credit: Leanne Lestak and William Manley

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Erosion Erosion October 1963 StormOctober 1963 Storm

• Along the bluffs, only erosion occurred

• Average almost 4 m; maximum almost 12 m; highly variable

• Perhaps 1/3 of 50-year bluff erosion occurred during one storm

Credit: Page Sturtevant and Leanne Lestak

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19481948 19971997

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• Compound uncertainties in each factor• In summary, coastal flooding & erosion

in Barrow are the confluence of…o Low surface atmospheric pressureo Long fetch (or open water) to the westo High westerly winds of long duration

• Such big storms expose and help thaw permafrost, increasing erosion

• Development exposes more things of value to the community

Interactions among FactorsInteractions among Factors

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Major Policy Responses

• Beach Nourishment Program– Sept. 1986 storms initiated planning process

– July 1992: NSB Assembly appropriated $16 m

– August 2000 storm damaged & sunk the dredge

– Informal local appraisals are mixed at best

• NSB/USACE Joint Feasibility Study– Motivated in part by August 2000 storm

– Phase I to be completed September 2005

– Commencement of O & M scheduled for 2012

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Other Policy Responses

• Old landfill site protected & capped• New hospital location• New research facility design• Inland evacuation route from NARL• Emergency management exercises• Utilidor retrofit• Planning/zoning & relocation• Policy process is distributed

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Proposed Networking Strategy

Alaska Native villages meet to compare experience re coastal erosion & flooding

• Maximize experience available for adaptation decisions in each village

• Help clarify their common interest in adapting state & federal programs

• Builds on hearings in Anchorage June 2004 and GAO-04-142 December 2003

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Self-EmpowermentSelf-Empowerment

• Problem of Governance: Agency Programs“…we have found that none of the agencies have programs that cover the full range of our needs…. To be blunt, no agency’s programs are designed for a project as complex as a full village relocation. Each agency has its realm of responsibility, and often there is a gap program to program.” Luci Eningowuk, Shishmaref Erosion and Relocation Coalition (June 2004)

• Possible SolutionNative villages take the lead in advising their elected representatives on adapting, supplementing, and integrating agency programs to meet village needs.

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Conclusions on Adaptation

• Science cannot significantly reduce inherent uncertainties

• Sound policy incorporates uncertainties, many community values & constraints– Sound policy process adjusts policies as

events unfold• Community is in best position to decide

sound policy & take responsibility• In short, context matters in adaptations

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Conclusions on Communication

• Depend on sustained interactions with the community & its leaders

• Depend on research focused on their local experience & concerns; substance matters

• Big storms (or extreme events) provide a common focus of attention

• Interim results of value to the community help sustain interactions

• So does each new storm: Nature is an ally motivating adaptations

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Colleagues & Contributors

Jim Maslanik, PI

Matt Beedle

Elizabeth Cassano

Anne Jensen

Melinda Koslow

Leanne Lestak

Amanda Lynch

Linda Mearns

Matt Pocernich

Glenn Sheehan

James Syvitski

Page Sturtevant

Claudio Tebaldi