UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA

AN EVALUATION OF THE BELlA DI JALAN RAYA ROAD SAFETY PROGRAMME

LAW TEIK HUA

FK 1998 2

AN EVALUATION OF THE BELlA DI JALAN RA YA ROAD SAFETY PROGRAMME

By

LAW TI:IK HUA

Thesis Submitted in Fulfilment of the Requirement for the Degree of Master of Science in the Faculty of Engineering

Universiti Putra Malaysia

August 1998

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This thesis is based on a study on the Selia Di Jalan Raya road

safety programme, funded by Belia 4B, Hulu Langat, Young Malaysian

Movement and PUSPAKOM.

The author wishes to thank Associate Prof. Ir. Dr. Radin Umar,

Dr. Mohd Razali and Dr. Habsah Midi for their concern and

encouragement toward the completion of this project paper. Thanks are

also due to Dr Ali Hassan for his generous assistance.

The author further wishes to express his appreciation to Y. B

Datuk Wira Haji Mohd Ali Rustam and Mr. Surat Singh of Majlis

Keselamatan Jalan Raya for their cooperation in this safety programme.

The author would also l ike to extend his sincere appreciation to ASP Nik

Lokman, ASP Ruslan and the entire Traffic Division of Kajang Police

Department for their assistance in collecting accident data in Hulu

Langat.

Last but not least, my sincere thanks from the bottom of my heart

to my beloved Mom and Dad for their love, support and encouragement.

ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i i

LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi

LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . vii i

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

ABSTRACT

ABSTRAK

CHAPTER

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv

I INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Objectives of Selia di Ja/an Raya Safety Programme. . . . . . . . 5

Objectives of the Study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Structure of the Thesis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

II ROAD SAFETY EDUCATION AND EVALUATION. . . . . . . . . . . 8

Formal Education and Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Other Education and Awareness Approaches . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . '" 1 5

Specific Educational Efforts Targeted at the Novice Rider. . 1 5

General Education and Awareness Approaches. . . . . . . . . . ........ 1 6

Police Enforcement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 7

Statistical Interference on Traffic Safety Intervention . . . . . . . . . .. 21

Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Analysis of the Odds Ratio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Box-Jenkins Time Series I ntervention Analysis. . . . . . . . 33

iii

III RESEARCH METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 45

I ntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

The Safety Project. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Safety Talks and Education to Targeted Riders . . . . . . . . 46

The Programme of Integrated Enforcement. . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Public Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . ... . . . . . . . 48

Traffic Accident Database System . . . . , . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Data Collection and Processing . . . . . . . , . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... . . . . . . . . 50

Design of the Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Control District . . . . . . ... ... . . . ... . .... . ... ... . . . . , ........ , .... . . . . . . . . . . . . '" . . . . . . 53

Statistical Evaluation Techniques . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Research Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Significance Testing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 59

Iv RESUL '·S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Analysis on Overall Accidents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Before and After Chi-square Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Survival Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

Time Series Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 62

Analysis on Motorcycle-related Accidents . . . . . . . . . ...... . . . . . . ...... 66

Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .... 66

Survival Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Time Series Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68

Analysis on Accident Casualties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Survival Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . .. 72

iv

Time Series Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 74

Analysis on Motorcyclist Casualties .. . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , ...... ... .... 81

Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... . . . . . . . 81

Survival Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

Time Series Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... ... . . . 84

Analysis on Young Casualties . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

Before and After Chi-square Test. . . .. . . . . .. . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

Survival Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

Time Series Analysis . . . ... . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . ... . . . . .. 93

Analysis on Young Motorcyclist Casualties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . , . . , . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . .. . . 99

Survival Analysis .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . , . . . . . , . . . '" . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 00

Time Series Analysis . . . . .. . . , .. . . . . . . . . . , . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 02

V FINDINGS AND CONCLUSiONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 0

Introduction . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . , . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 0

Effects of Belia di Jelan Raya Safety Programme . . . . . . ... ... . .. . 1 1 0

Limitations of the Study . . . . . . '" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 5

Future Work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 6

BIBLIOGRAPHy...... ... ... ...... ... ... ...... ... ...... ...... ... ......... ....... 1 1 7

ViTA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 22

v

LIST OF TABLES

Table Page

1 General Road Accident Statistics in Malaysia . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

2 Motorcycle Accident Statistics in Malaysia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

3 Contigency Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

4 The Data of Odds Ratio Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5 The Population in Shah Alam and Hulu Langat,

28

1 990 and 1 997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

6 Before and After Chi-square Test for Overall Accidents Data. . . . . . 61

7 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Overall Accidents in Hulu Langat . . . . . . . . . . . . '" . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

8 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcycle-related Accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

9 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcycle-related Accidents in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

1 0 Before and After Chi-square Test for Number of Hospitalized Casualties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

1 1 Before and After Chi-square Test for Number of Deaths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

1 2 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Hospital ized Casualties in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

1 3 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Deaths in Hulu Lan gat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oJ . . . . . . . . . 80

1 4 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

1 5 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcyclist Deaths. . . . . . . . . . . . 81

1 6 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcycle Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

vi

1 7 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcyclist Deaths in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

1 8 Before and After Chi-square Test for Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

1 9 Before and After Chi-square Test for Deaths Aged Between 1 6 and 30. . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

20 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

21 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Fatal Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . 99

22 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 00

23 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcycl ist Deaths Aged Between 1 6 and 30. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 00

24 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . 1 06

25 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcyclist Fatalities Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 09

26 Result Summary of the Be/ia di Ja/an Raya Safety Programme In Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 5

vii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Page

1 Malaysia Road Deaths 1 976-1 996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . 2

2 Survival Function of Zero Accident in Particular Months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

3 Monthly Overall Accidents in Hulu Langat . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

4 ACF and PACF for the Number of Overal l Accidents in Hulu Langat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

5 Survival Function of Zero Motorcycle-related Accident in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

6 Monthly Motorcycle-related Accidents in Hulu Langat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

7 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motocycle-related Accidents in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

8 Survival Function of Zero Injury in Accident in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

9 Survival Function of Zero Death in Accident in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . '" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

1 0 Monthly Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

1 1 ACF and PACF for the Number of Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

1 2 Monthly Deaths i n Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. , . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

1 3 ACF and PACF for the Number of Deaths in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

1 4 Survival Function of Zero Motorcycl ist Injury in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

1 5 Survival Function of Zero Motorcycl ist Deaths in Particular Months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

1 6 Monthly Motorcycle Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

viii

1 7 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

1 8 Monthly Motorcyclist Deaths in Hulu langat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

1 9 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motocyclist Deaths in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

20 Survival Rate of Zero Hospitalized Casualty Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Particular Months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

21 Survival Rate of Zero Fatal Casualty Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Particular Months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . . 93

22 Monthly Hospital ized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

23 ACF and PACF for the Number of Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 95

24 Monthly Fatal Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

25 ACF and PACF for the Number of Fatal ities Aged between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

26 Survival Rate of Zero Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualty Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . .. . 1 01

27 Survival Rate of Zero Motorcyclist Fatalities Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 02

28 Monthly Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 04

29 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties Aged between 16 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 05

30 Monthly Motorcyclist Fatalities Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 1 07

31 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motocyclist Fatalities Aged between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 08

ix

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ACF Autocorrelation Function

AR Autoregressive Model

BAC Blood Alcohol Concentration

CARS Computerized Accident Reporting System

HD BFI "Had been Drinking" Fatal and Injury Accident

MRC Motorcycle Safety Foundation's Motorcycle Rider Course

MSTOX Motorcycle Moving Straight or Turning and others Cross

MA Moving Average Model

NIFI Night-time Fatal and Injury Accidents

OR Odds Ratio

PACF Partial Autocorrection Function

SAS Statistical Package for the Statistician

Sdv Standard Deviations

SPSS Statistical Package for Social Scientist

SVNM FI Single Vehicle Night-time Fatal and Injury Accident Involving

Male Drivers

x

Abstract of thesis presented to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia in fulfi lment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science.

AN EVALUATION OF THE BELlA DIJALAN RAYA ROAD SAFETY PROGRAMME

By

LAW TEIK HUA

August 1998

Chairman: Associate Professor Radin Umar, Ph.D.

Faculty: Engineering

In November 1 996, a road safety programme known as the Belia di

Ja/an Raya road safety programme was carried out in Hulu Langat. The

main objective of this programme was to reduce traffic accidents and

injuries, especially among the motorcycl ists.

xi

This thesis presents the impact of the one year safety programme

in the Hulu Langat district. It provides an integrated approach to address

accident problems by the enhancement of traffic enforcement, education

and public information.

The accident data were collected 23 months before and 12 months

after the programme, in two comparison locations, Hulu Langat and Shah

Alam. Shah Alam was used as a matched-pair control in this analysis.

The Before and After analysis and the Box-Jenkins time series

modeling technique were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the safety

programme. Using the Before and After Chi-square test, it was found that

the proportion of accidents in these two districts are Significantly different.

This impl ies that the safety programme has a Significant effect on the

reduction in the number of accidents, injuries and fatalities in Hulu Langat.

The Box-Jenkins Time Series analysiS indicates an average

reduction of 57 accidents, 8 hospitalized non-motorcycl ist casualties, 1 5

non-motorcyclist fatalities, 1 8 hospitalized motorcyclists, 3 motorcyclist

deaths, 3 young hospital ized non-motorcyclist casualties and 1 fatal

motorcycl ist in every month during the study period. In contrast, there had

been an average increase in accidents and casualties in the comparison

district, Shah Alam.

xii

The Survival Analysis shows that there was a significant

improvement in overall traffic safety status in Hulu Langat after the

implementation of the safety programme. In contrast, changes in traffic

safety status in the comparison location, Shah Alam, did not resemble

improvement in Hulu Langat in direction and magnitude.

xiii

Abstrak tesis yang dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia Sebagai memenuhi keperluan untuk Ijazah Master Sains.

PENILAIAN PROGRAM KESELAMATAN JALAN RAYA "BEllA 01 JALAN RAYA"

Oleh

LAW TEIK HUA

Ogos 1998

Pengerusi: Profesor Madya Radin Umar, Ph.D.

Fakulti: Kejuruteraan

Pada November 1996, satu program keselamatan jalan raya untuk

mengatasi masalah kemalangan khususnya yang melibatkan motosikal di

daerah Hulu Langat telah dilancarkan. Objektif utama program tersebut

adalah untuk megurangkan kemalangan dan kecederaan akibat

kemalangan jalan raya, terutamanya kecederaan melibatkan penunggang

motosikal .

xiv

Keputusan peni/aian bagi keberkesanan program keselamatan ini

selama setahun dipaparkan dalam laporan ini . Pelbagai pendekatan telah

dijalankan dalam menjayakan program ini , dan ini mel ibatkan

penguatkuasaan, pendidikan dan penyebaran maklumat mengenai

keselamatan ja/an raya kepada orang ramai.

Data kemalangan selama 23 bulan sebelum dan 1 2 bulan selepas

program untuk dua kawasan berlainan telah dianalisis untuk

mengecamkan perubahan dalam kemalangan jalan raya. Data

kemalangan di Shah A/am te/ah dijadikan kawalan dalam kajian ini.

Dua kaedah iaitu Analisis Sebe/um dan Selepas dan model siri

masa Box-Jenkins telah digunakan untuk menilai keberkesanan program

keselamatan. Analisis Sabelum dan Selepas membuktikan jumlah

kemalangan sebelum dan selepas di Hulu Langat dan Shah Alam adalah

berbeza secara bererti . Ini menunjukkan program keselamatan telah

berjaya dalam mengurangkan bilangan kemalangan, kecederaan dan

kematian di Hulu Langat.

Analisis siri masa Box-Jenkins menunjukkan pengurangan

sebanyak 57 kemalangan, 8 kecederaan bukan penunggang motosikal ,

1 5 kematian bukan penunggang motosikal, 1 8 kecederaan melibatkan

xv

penunggang motosikal , 3 kematian melibatkan penunggang motosikaJ, 3

kecederaan melibatkan pemandu remaja dan 1 kematian meJibatkan

penunggang motosikaJ remaja setiap bulan dalam tempoh pelaksanaan

program keselamatan. Diperhatikan penurunan dalam kemalangsn tidak

berlaku dalam kawasan kawalan, Shah Alam dalam tempoh masa yang

sarna.

Analisis Survival menunjukkan terdapat kemajuan dalam status

keselamatan trafik secara keseluruhan selepas pelaksanaan program

keselamatan. Sebaliknya tidak ada peningkatan dalam status

keselamatan trafik di lokasi kawalan, Shah Alam.

xvi

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

Malaysia has undergone rapid socioeconomic development in the

last decade. As a newly industrializing country Malaysia has achieved

average economic growth rates of 8% per year, which is roughly three

times to that witnessed by Europe and North America. As a result,

Malaysia is currently in different phases of the motorization transition. As

of December 1 996, the total number of registered vehicles has amounted

to 7,686,684, which in tum increases the opportunity for individuals to

utilize motor vehicles. Keeping pace with these developments is the

increasing fatality rate resulting in 6,304 deaths in 1 996 (Table 1 ). The

disastrous figure of an average of 4,520 fatal ities per year for the past 1 0

consecutive years is also alarming (Figure 1 ) . The number of fatalities is

expected to increase to 9, 1 27 (Radin, 1 996a) if no proper action is taken

to offset the growth in traffic exposures.

1

2

Table 1 : General Road Accident Statistics in Malaysia

Year Vehicles Vehicles Involved Deaths Casualties Total Registered in Accidents

1 976 1 ,429,84 80,995 2,405 16,922 1 9,327 1 977 1 ,621 ,27 86,688 2,512 17,793 20,305 1 978 1 ,829,95 91 ,122 2,561 1 9,098 21 ,659 1 979 1 ,989,39 94,788 2,607 20,004 22,61 1 1 980 2,357,38 99,485 2,568 1 9,836 22,404 1 981 2,901 ,18 1 07,552 2,769 1 9,529 22,298 1 982 3,246,79 126,474 3,266 1 9,554 22,820 1 983 3,594,94 1 39,006 3,550 23,007 26,557 1 984 3,941 ,03 140,012 3,637 21 ,865 25,502 1 985 4,243,14 142,653 3,603 20,321 23,924 1 986 3,52367 1 37,1 75 3,822 1 9,738 23,560 1 987 3,674,48 1 31 ,609 3,320 1 8,419 21 ,799 1 988 3,865,71 124,922 3,335 1 9,203 22,538 1 989 4,1 55,1 9 127,279 3,773 26,264 30,037 1 990 4,547,41 146,747 4,048 25,766 29,814 1 991 4,942,04 161 ,823 4,331 25,776 30,107 1 992 5,259,83 186,805 4,557 31 ,714 36,271 1 993 5,656,03 220,939 4,666 37,020 41 ,686 1 994 6,1 66,43 251 ,686 5,159 43,344 48,503 1 995 6,802,37 275,430 5,712 46,440 52,1 52 1 996 71686168 325191 5 61304 4711 71 531475 (Source: Royal Malaysia Police 1 996)

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Figure 1 : Malaysia Road Deaths 1 976-1 996

3

In Malaysia, riding a motorcycle is 1 7 times more dangerous as

compared to driving a passenger car (Radin, 1 995). In 1 996 alone (Table

2) motorcycles made up approximately 51 percent of all registered motor

vehicfes and accounted for 22 percent of traffic accidents. I n addition, a

disproportionately large share of all traffic fatal ities (60 percent) are

resulted from motorcycle accidents.

Table 2: Motorcyde ACCident Statistics in Malaysia

Year Registered Motorcycles Deaths Casualties Total Motorcycles Involved in

Accidents 1976 743,132 51.9% 18,187 22.4% 394 16.3% 5,601 5,995 19n 891,321 54.9% 19,170 22.1% 585 23.8% 6,823 7,408 1978 1,091,12 59.6% 20,556 22.5% 658 25.6% 7,864 8,522 1979 1,183,39 59.4% 19,839 20.9% 642 24.6% 7,496 8,138 1980 1,391,89 59.0% 19,969 20.0% 981 38.2% 7,365 8,346 1981 1,556,51 53.6% 20,433 18.9% 1,041 37.5% 9,005 10,046 1982 1,744,43 53.7% 26,706 21.1% 1,264 38.7% 10,308 11,572 1983 2,037,17 56.6% 30,992 22.2% 1,517 42.7% 12,796 14,313 1984 2,236,16 56.7% 30,451 21.7% 1,609 44.2% 12,726 14,335 1985 2,408,56 56.7% 30,433 21.3% 1,674 46.4% 12,563 14,237 1986 2,534,34 71.9% 27,779 20.2% 1,658 43.3% 12,233 13,891 1987 2,609,69 71.0% 25,074 19.0% 1,466 44.1% 10,947 12,413 1988 2,701,14 69.8% 23,145 18.5% 1,391 41.7% 11,329 12,720 1989 2,848,71 68.5% 23,974 18.8% 1,608 42.6% 14,994 16,602 1990 3,035,93 66.7% 27,845 18.9% 1,826 45.1% 15,857 17,683 1991 3,251,28 65.6% 29,225 18.0% 2,062 47.6% 16,235 18,297 1992 3,473,64 66.0% 39,272 21.0% 2,307 50.6% 21,957 24,264 1993 3,703,83 65.4% 46,511 21.0% 2,416 51.7% 26,226 28,642 1994 3,9n,04 64.4% 58,921 23.4% 2,946 57.1% 31,957 34,903 1995 3,564,75 52.4% 66,508 24.1% 3,362 58.8% 34,372 37,734 1996 3,951,93 51.4% 73,268 22.4% 3,n8 59.9% 35,960 39,738

(Source: Royal Malaysia Police 1 996)

4

The increasing number of motor-vehicle crashing through the

1 980s and 1 990s has precipitated efforts to identify effective remedial

programmes that should be directed toward enhancing traffic safety. As a

result, the Malaysian Government proposed the implementation of a pilot

traffic safety programme in Hulu Langat as a first step to address the

above problems.

This thesis presents findings of an evaluation of the Belia Di Jalan

Raya, Hulu Langat safety programme, undertaken by the Malaysian

Government since November 1 996. The aim of the study was to evaluate

and take stock of what had been achieved thus far and to consider what

further action is required to maintain a downward trend for road casualties

for at least the remainder of the present century.

The study was commissioned by the Ministry of Transport and

Malaysia Garakan 48 Movement with the intention that it should be

conducted on a fully inter-departmental basis. Whilst the primary

responsibil ity for road safety policy lies with the Department of Transport,

a number of other departments have a substantive interest in the subject.

Their involvement and support can be crucial to the success of certain

approaches to the problem.

.5

The focus of the study is centred on two key issues below:

• Has there been a measurable reduction in the number of accidents

and fatalities, especially in accidents involving motorcyclists, during

the implementation of Belia di Jalan Raya safety programme?

• Is there reasonable evidence to indicate that such reduction can be

attributed to Belia di Jalan Raya safety programme?

Objectives of Selia di Jalan Raya Safety Programme

The main objectives underpinning the Belia di Jalan Raya safety

programme are:

• to place the road safety issue on the public agenda so that safer forms

of behavior can be fostered

• to deter road users from unsafe behaviors by increasing their

perceived risk of being involved in any traffic crash and of the painful

consequences

• to deter road users from unsafe behaviors by increasing the perceived

risk of being apprehended by the police

• to provide information to support decision-making that would lead to

the adoption of safer forms of behavior

6

Objectives of the Study

The objectives of this study are as fol lows:

• to examine the effect of the 8elia di Jalan Raya safety programme in

reducing the number of accidents, especially the motorcycle accidents

• to examine the effect of the Belia di Jalan Raya safety programme in

reducing the number of casualties, especially the motorcyclist

casualties

• to examine the effect of the Belia di Jalan Raya safety programme in

reducing the number of young casualties, especially the young

motorcycl ist casualties

Structure of the Thesis

The thesis consists of five chapters. Chapter I present the

objectives of the study and describe the need to implement the traffic

safety programme in the Hulu Langat district.

Chapter " reviews the literature conceming the motorcycle safety

programme centering on two aspects. The first aspect depicts the

approaches taken in safety programmes. These include education, public

information and police enforcement. The second aspect describes the

statistical analysis used to evaluate the effectiveness of previous traffic

safety intervention, policies or programmes.

7

A complete discussion on the methodology of this study is

presented in Chapter I I I . The discussion is divided into three parts:

• Part one discusses the details of road safety talks, pol ice

enforcement and public information programmes, which have

been carried out in conjunction with the safety programme

• Part two discusses the process of data collection and

processing

• Part three covers the design and method of the evaluation of

safety programme

The discussion on the results is carried out in Chapter IV. The

methods that are used in the analysis include the Before and After Chi­

Square Test, Survival Analysis and Box-Jenkins Time Series Intervention

analysis. The analysis has been carried out by using statistical softwares,

such as Forecast Pro, SAS and SPSS Windows9S.

The final chapter presents the main conclusions of the study. The

limitations of the study and the recommendations for further study are

also documented in this section.

CHAPTER II

ROAD SAFETY INTERVENTION AND EVALUATION METHOD

Road Safety education plays an increasingly important part in a

systematic approach to road accident prevention. This is due to the

realization that human errors are an important contributory factor in accident

causation. Road safety education can reduce the probabil ity of these human

errors by influencing the road user in changing his perceptions, cognitions,

attitudes, skil ls and behaviours. Hence, the fundamental approach to road

safety lies in having a sustained programme of safety education with three

main objectives. Firstly, the programme must aim to educate the road users

in the safe and proper use of the road system. Secondly, efforts must be

directed at inculcating the general public on the constant awareness that

accidents can happen to anyone and at any time. Finally, it is to gain the

acceptance of the road users for the various counter measures taken to

prevent road accidents.

As in other areas of traffic safety, considerable effort has been placed

on the education of motorcyclists as an effective means to address

motorcycle crash problems. Education and training have been typically

taken in two forms:

8