6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Defining and modelling the Coastal Zone affected by the Po

river (Italy)

Artioli Y., Bendoricchio G., Palmeri L.

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

The EUROCAT project

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

The POCAT Consortium

University of Padova

CNR-IIA

CIES – University of Calabria

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Eutrophication in NACZ

Nutrients loads from PO in '96-'00 [t/y]

TN DIN TP

172'543 123'482 8'064

Trophic state of the Coastal Zone average concentration '96-'00 [g/l]

TN TP Chl-a TRIX

436 20.6 10.2 5.3

Classification of coastal water [d.lgs. 152/99]

TRIX Trophic state

2-4 Good

4-5 Moderate

5-6 Poor

6-8 Bad

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Coastal Zone database

#S #S #S #S #S

#S #S #S #S

#S #S%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

']

']

']

Cattolica

Venezia

1002

1009

1019

2004

2014

Ferrara

i1 i2 i3 i4 i5

i6 i7 i8 i9

i10 i11

#/#

Pontelagoscuro

2

4

9

14

19

302

304

309

314

319

1004

1014 #S INTERREG

%[ DAPHNE

Sampling Stations

0 70 140 Kilometers

N

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Definition of a Coastal Zone affected by a river discharge

• Area that is sensitive to the influence of the water discharged by the river

• A point in a CZ is sensitive to the river water discharge if the variance of salinity is greater then an arbitrary value

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Definition of CZ

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

WASP6 application to the POCZ

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

WASP6 application to the POCZ

• Calibration of the hydrodynamic model using the TOXI module

• Calibration of the water quality model using the EUTRO module

Hydrodynamic model

TOXIEUTRO

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Calibration

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Calibration

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Calibration

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Calibration

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Calibration – trophic stateTRIX - seg #1.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

J F M A M J J A S O N D

month

TR

IX

simulated observed

TRIX - seg #2.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

J F M A M J J A S O N D

month

TR

IX

simulated observed

TRIX - seg #3.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

J F M A M J J A S O N D

month

TR

IX

simulated observed

TRIX - Coastal Zone

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

J F M A M J J A S O N D

month

TR

IX

simulated observed

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Future scenarios

DRIVER

PRESSURE STATE

IMPACT

RESPONSE

MONERISLoads reduction

WASP6CZ water quality

DEFINITEcost-benefit

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Scenarios' nutrient loads reductionN [%]

-15

-10

-5

0

+5

2001 2008 2016

BAU baseBAU highPOT1POT2POT3DG

P [%]

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

+5

2001 2008 2016

BAU baseBAU highPOT1POT2POT3DG

MONERIS result

Input on WASP6

MONERIS result

Input on WASP6

BAU baseline

2.10% 5.00%

BAU highline

4.60% 0.40%

POT1 -3.10% -28.20%POT2 -6.70% -28.80%POT3 -9.80% -28.90%DG -11.70% -11.70% -34.60% -34.60%

-6.50% -28.60%

Scenario% variation of N load at 2016 % variation of P load at 2016

3% 3%

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

CZ scenarios resultsResults

INPUT

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Results

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Eutrophic risk

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Conclusions• Scientific definition of a coastal zone affected by a

river discharge

• WQ model calibrated that permits a deeper knowledge of the eutrophic dynamics in the CZ

• The simulation of future scenarios show a non-linear response of the CZ to changes on nutrient input loadsThe WFD objectives at the 2016 could be accomplished in the POT and DG scenario,BUT only in the average value

6th ELOISE meeting

Portoroz 15-18 November 2004

Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei

Sistemi Ambientali

Acknowledgements:

Daphne oceanographic structure of Environmental Protection Agency of Region Emilia-Romagna

Questions???