l I

, l, ~

*' BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

R RELEASE aUNE 23, A.M.

ON UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

WS- 111 ----------------«~B-- MAY- JUNE 1949

CENTS PER

BUSHEL

300

260

260

240

220

zoo

180

160

140

120

l<lO

eo

60

WHEAT. NO.2 HARD WINTER: CASH PRICE, LOAN VALUE, AND CEILING AT KANSAS CITY,1937-49

I

f.-...----.1--.---+--+------+---+---+---+---- ~ t -1---+-----1

-r \. \ \ (\,.

~~;:: 1----J---J----J..--+---1-----1--+---+--±-J ---'t===o::jlmpro'Ped

't.. J I w~Jd wbaal !V 111tuolloo

J

*AVERAGE OF ALL REPORTED SALES 4 ORDINARY PROT£ IN

U, 5. OEPARTN£NT OF AORJCUlTUR£ NEG. 40)~1 BUP.(AU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOioiiCS

Since ·the loan program was started in 1938, prices averaged lowest in either July or. August In every marketing year except 1938~39, and then advanced. In 8 of these years, prices averaged hiphest in March or later, In 2 years they averaged highest in January, and In one year (I9~J,8) they were highest In December. From 1938 through 1942 prices averaged below the loan rate early in the season. In 1943-44 they started above the loan level--largely as the result of a very large non-food demand--and by December advanced to about parity, where the ceiling was established. This ceiling was advanced fram time to .time and finally dlsconHnued on June 30, 1946. From 1945 through June 1.~8 p.rlce$ were pushed above the Joan level by a very large export demand and by above ·average use of wheat .as feed. In 19~&-~9 prices fluctuated around the loan level as the result of large wheat supplies, a decline in feed use, and a better balance between world exportable sup'pl i es and import requirements.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

DISTRIBUTION OF WHEAT IN THE UNITED STATES, 19.4.4

Each dot represents 5,000 acres

NEG. 47262 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

There are four great wheat-producing areas in the United States. Hard red winter wheat is grown prin­cipally in the Southern Great Plains (area 3), a·nd hard red spring is grown chiefly in the Northern Great Plains (area 2). These hard wheats are especially suited for the making of bread flours. Soft red winter ~/heat is produced in the eastern half of the United States (area ll), and white wheat predominates in the Pacific Northwest (area I), with important districts also in Michigan, California and Me\': York. Flours from soft red and soft white wheats are used In the making of pastry, crackers, biscuits, and cakes •. Durum ~~heat is grown principally in North Dakota. This type of wheat is used in the manufacture of macaroni, spaghetti, and other alimentary pastes. The chart shows the distribution of the 66 mill ion acres of all wheat seeded for the 19~~ crop.

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WS-111 - 3 -

----------~-------T H E . W H E A .T S .I T U A T I 0 N

----~·-~----------App:roved by t.he Catlook and Situation Board, June 13,1949

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The la.r~~,st proppective- wh.eat supplies on-record and a slight fall­ing off in demand are· producing difficult distribution problems for wheat producers. Elne1:gency .T48asp.~e:s, including increased farm storage facilities and a distressed wh~at :!.qan p:.."'ogram, are being a.dop'f:;,ed by the Government • Acreage a~l,c"tment~ ... MP.<! ~tl$;~i:Qg _quotas also are being considered.. These .measures are expected :to- ·hold average ;farm prices for 1949 ~eat near the loan .level,. bt:.t during t.he peak of the harvest they cay fall ·considerably 'below the loan 0 • .

. . ._ Unit~d States wheat supplies for 191~9-50 are now estimated at about 1~63'5 millj_on ·bushels. This would be -the largest on record~ exceeding

. slightly the 1,600 mi._llion in 1942-43. Domesti.c· disappearance. may total 68B million bu~hels' (about 480 for civilian food, ··125 for feed and 80 fo.r seed). This woulc leave approximately 950 million bushels available for export in 194~50 and c<:rry-ov~r July 1. · 1950~ If e:A.'J'Orts from. the United State~r.tota;l 450 million bushels the carry-over July 1, 1950 would be about $00 million bushels·.. The size of export's wil:!. depend upon the way

. the crops fi':p.ally turn out in both ~-porting anci jmporting countries., · In 'addi~ion, foreign aid policies of this country Will continu~ to be ve~y import~nt in detenaining United States exportse ·

Crop conditions ~n Europe point to a breadgrain production bel~w that of the favo:::-able 1948 postwar year,. when the wheat crop was onJ.Jr .8 percent below tha 19.35-39 av:erage and. the rye crop 13 percent b~low its pr~war averagee However, prospects for both crops are consider'ably,above the outturns in the 1947 drought year.

The intended wheat acreage for all Canada was reported at 27.0 mil­lion acres, an increase of 12 percent cc.mpared with the actual seedings of 24~lmill~on ac~es in 1948. Timely rains have fallen over wide areas in ttie Pra~rie P;--ovinces and have :materially improved prospects in that area .. Despite· the ·inq:;_rov~er;t ~ moist~re reserves remain far below normal over tmport~nt· producing areas, ~d.frequent rains during the growing season will be ·.requi~ed to produce a: satisfactory crop.

----- ---- ------------ ---:t :-~ . .. . .

·~ : : . .

NpTE; On Monday, June 13, the Senate approved the International Wheat Agreement. A synopsis of this Agreem.ent was published in THE WHEAT SITUATION of ·March-~«\pril 1949 · - · ----

·' . . ·-...;...-.... ---- . ---- ---- ----- ------·

MAY-JUNE 1949 - 4 -

As a result of favorable crop pr~spects, acreage allotments and possibily marketing quotas may be required for the 195.0 crop in the trnit.ed States.. The Department recently iss'tled a n6tic~ that the Secretary is studying~the wheat supply situation t.o determine '\-rhether ma:..--keting qr;.ot,as should be proclaimed for 1950-5L If quotas are necesst;.ry, such a pr•)e­la.mation will be issued at an early date., If rn.arketing quotas are prc-c1a.im­ed, approval of at least two-thirds oi the growers voting in a refen>ndi.lm would be required to put them into effect. · Even if marketing quotas are not put into effect . for the 1950 crop, at i.s likeJ.y that acreage alJ otments

·!will be used to aid in carrying out price support progr.;;.ms. •

Liberalization of the loan program and provisions for the conetruction of additional·.stora.ge space were announced on.· June 7 o These include~ (1) • "Distress", loans will be made. on wheat in --temporary storage and vn wheat piled on the ground in the open in•,certain areas at 75 perce."'lt of the full suppo~t level. (2) The Government will try to find suitable emergency storage in areas where it is net feasible for farmers to leave.whe~t in the open or in other temporary storage. (3) Loans will be made .a\·a:'LJ :J.bJ.e to farmers to build farm storage at 4 percent interest with- five years in ~T.ich to pay~ (4) CCC may purchase and erect storage fa~11ities· for its own grain when other fac~lities are not civailable~

On the basis of supplies and estimated disappearance, the carry-over on July 1 of this year is expected to total about 300 million·bushels~ Disappearance proba}::lly will total about 1,180 million bushels, consisting-­of about 480 million for food, 2.00 million for feed and seed, and 500 mil­lion for eJCports. Supplies of 1;484 million bushels came from a. carry-over July 1~ 1948 of 196 nrl_llion and a crop of 1,288 million. With exports of 500 million bushels, 1948-49 w~ll be the fourth consecutive year in which U~ s. exports have set a new record~

'Wheat prices broke sharply on. May 27, after having been above the loan rate almost all of the month.. While the seasonal price adjustment to new crop conditions ordinarily begins in late May, the decline this year was unusually sharp. The price at Kansas City fo1·· No. 2 f{ard ~Tinter Wheat declined fror;n $2.,27 on May 26 to $lr 94· on May 31, before recovery- t.ook place. This was 21 cents below the inter-lm loan rate recently announced4 Last year prices· declined to about 18 cents ·below the ·loan.,· It-·was· tQ be ex-·· pected that prices would drop to .a lower point'relative.to the lean this year than last because both the winter wheat crop and th!'9 cal'ry-o\rer are moderately larger. The larger carry-over itself WO't1ld be an :impor'!:ant market factor were it not that most. ot .it will ·be owned by the ·ccc or· resealed under loan. With. -the liber<:~.J.ization of· t,he provisions to help farmers ~:.tore their wheat, ·prices will not d.ecline- as low as th~y -would.· have otherWise., ·

THE DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND~- An a.bnorma:l. world demand, for b:r~ad.',grains made it possi.ble to· move the e:>~:cess·over domestic_ n-eeds . .f.roln fsmr record wheat crops produ.ced in 194h-47' and to minimize 'the increaS? in the .size Of the carry-~ver on ~Uly __ l 9 , 1948 (table 3). ·

•

•

•

W::S-111 - 5 --

- :.· i::n .1932-41., tho supply of· '\-vheat, in continental United .Svat~s _averaged 98Zmillion bushels consist~ng of carry-in o~ old wheat; 23·5; .production, 7381 and :Unports for domestic '1;1Se,· 9 •. Total disappearance averaged 721, consisting of f"'od;·. 475; feed,_ ·],.22; . seed, 81; a.nd exports and shipments 43. ··Carry-over stock~ at the end of this period were milch larger t-h:a.n a~ the .. beginning.

· Net expo.rts from the United States have exceeded 300 million bushels only in 1914-1.5, 1920-21, and each of the past 4 years beg~ng in 1945-46. Very small United ·S~aLes wheat crops in 1933~36 together with·drives toward greater self-sufficiency in many cou.'1trie's greatly reduced exports in the 30's ~d-tR~ war curtailed shipping in the

.. early 40's. In the 35 y~ars since 19091 leaving ·out the years of net impci~ts, net exports averaged 169 million bushels

· ·' · ·.. . ~eat pricEj!S. to g:rowers advanced from an avePage of '68 ce~ts per bushel'in 1940-41 to a record of $2.8~ in mid­January 1948, and a record season average pf $2.29 for the 1947 crop. From 1938 to late 1944 the loan program,_.which reflected the general rise in prices farmers pay, was the most-important factor in domestic wheat prices. From 1942 through 1945 wheat• feeding was exceptionally heavy and very large quantities of wheat were used for war industrial pur­poses. Beg{nning in early 1945 exports became the most important price factor.

In 1947-48, United States wheat prices reflected the unavailability of feed grains tor export, the additional wo:rld demand resulting from short ..crop:;; in importing cotiptries, and the continued rise in the general price level. With th-e -harvest of' the near-record crop in 1948 and, favorable crops in ,importing countries, the loan program again becsme:an important price factor. . .

. . . ' . JJr.ii;tea· States wheat.- S\lpp~es are now estimated at about 1,635 mil­

lion busha~s •. This.WQuld_b~ the :argest on record, exceeding slightly the 1;600-mill~on in l942-43. T~e crop, indicated at 11337 million bushels, i~.: se.cond only_ to ,the record high 1,367 millio.n-bushel crop in 1947. The total crop consisted 'bf the f'ollowill$, in milli-on bushels (1948 in parerith~ses): Winter wheat 1,036~8 (990.1) 1 durum 49.6 (44.7), and other spring.250.6 (253.6).

Domestic disappeq.r.anc.e may total about- 68'·million bushels, con­sisting o( · a'Qottt 480,. million bushels for civilian food~ 125 million for feed and inaustrial·use and 80 'million for seed. Use for food will be about the same~~ ~n 1948~49. However, feed use prob~bly will be slightly larger than 'in the current ·year• The quantity f'or seed represents a de­c~ease in li~e.with an expected reduction in 1950 acreage. The use for distille~ sp~r1ts,,alcohol and malt beverages will again be very small. In 1948-49 1t W1ll be less than 100,000 bushels.

MAY~JUNE 194 9 - 6-

If total supplies turn out to be about 1..,6.35 million bushels, and domestic disappearance totals 6B5 mi~llion bushels,- 950' milHon bushels wil1 be available for expOi"t in 1949-50 and carry-~ver July 1, 1950'. · A prelimi­nary analysis of' supplies which may be available in other 19xporting countries and probable takings by impo1"'ting countries indicates that exports from the United States may total about 450 million bushels. On this basis the carrry-over July l, 1950 would be about 500 million bushels. ·

The size of exports will depend upon the way the crops finally turn out in both the exporting countries and importing countries~ In addition1

United States exports under foreign,aid and for occupied areas will continue to ·be very_importa.nt in determining United States exports.

Acreage .a;gotments .f2r 1950 Crop Y,kel;y: :Harketing Qp.otas !l Possibility

As a result of favorable crop prospects, acreage allotments and possibly. marketing quotas may be required for the: 1950 crop in the United States. The Department has rec~tly issued a notice that the Secretary is considering_the wheat supply situation to determine whether marketing quotas are required to be proclaimed. If quotas are necessary, such a p1~clanation will be issued at an early date.

If marketing quotas are proclaimed,-approval'of at least two-thirds of the· growers voting in a referendum would be required to put them into effect~ Even if marketing quotas are not put into effect for the 1950 wheat ·crop it is likely that wheat acreage allotments will be us~d as a practical means of carrying out the price support programs.

Carr:v-over July 1 May Total about 300 ~~ ~1shels: lpcports in 19!tS~49 Expected !2, ~ Ne'& Record

On the basis of supplies and estimated disappearance-the carry-over of old ~heat- may be expected to total about 300 million bushels. Civilian food has been estimated at 479 million bushels. 1/ The estimated quantity ~sed for seed is placed at 91 million and that fed on far.m~ ~here grown at lCl million~. Additional quantities we~e purcbased for use as feed. Expo~ts of wheat and flour and macaroni in terms of wheat totaled about

•

470 million bushels for ll months, Ju~y 1948-May 1949• For the' full year t they probably will slightly exceed the 500.' ll)illion bushels preyiously ex-ceed the 500 million bushels previously ,e~cted •. Shipments to territories of the United States will again total about 4 million bushels. These items of domestic disappearance and exports total about 111$0 million bushels. With total supplies of·.-1,484 million bushels, consisting -of the ·carry .. over July 1, 1948 of 196 million and a erop of.1,288 million, disa,ppearance of this size would indicat~ a carry-over of about 300 mi*~iQn ~ush~ls.

1/ This does not represent any c~;-!rom the 485 million· ~ushels previously est:i,mated, since the estimate for mi4tary fo~d is exclud~d;.-Y Table 14 ·apows f~rm: disposition for ae.ed: and feed:~ 192~48.

-71-

· .. ·~ .. ft.ea:t exports ·of 500 million bushels, including flour and macaroni :,.:prod:a.c~s in ter~e of w'J:;u§a t, .. is nearly as great as total world trade in ·.'wh~at, and p;rtqducts .in some prewar years. It exceeds Ua s. domestic food . ¢ons,um.Ptiot:J.0 · Moreover, it is· the fourth consecutive year i!l which U., So -eJtPdrts ·ha.ve set.a new record,. ··

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' , Wheat Prices Af!,just Sharply ~ New ,CroR C~mditions

, ~r.heat prices at Kans~s City were above the loan rate almost all of M~y.., but prices broke sharply .on the ·27tho 11Thife the seasonal adjustment to new erop conditions ordi$rily begin§ in late MayJ the deollne this year was unusually sharp. On May 26.)\ 1'4-e ... 2 Hard Winter Wheat at Kansas City was $2~27 and by May 31 it had dropped 33 cents, to $L94. Since that time there has be€n same recovery apd on June 12 the price was up to $2~10. The decline at Minneapolis was lesS 11• On May 26, Noo 1 Dark Northern Spring averaged $2.25 and the decline was only ~5 cents to $2.10 on May 3le On June 13 i:_t averaged $2 0 21. The decline in the price of spring wheat always lag~ behin~ the adjustment in the price of winter wheat becau~e of later harvest dates. Prices received by farmers for wheat in. mid-May averaged j2.001"which compares with $2~00 a month earlier, $2~22 a year earlier, and the loan ra~e on the 1948 crop of $2o00e

An interim loan rate .for 1949-crop wheat 'JJ for No. 1 Hard Winter at Kansas. City has been authorized at ~2.16, with No .. 2 at ~2.15~ Final

. rat·es canno:t. be announced until July, since legislation requires that rates be. -established at not less. than 90 pe(l'cent of parity at the beginning of th_~ marke~i!lg year~ wh:tch is July. 1.. The .interim rates includ~ a deduction of 3 cants -a bushe~ as .fi ma.rg~n of ;5afety ~ainst the possib~lity of lower parity prices at:'·that time. . · · :

The low pr'ice .for No~ 2 Hard Winter reached ·at Kansas Ci1{y', on May 31 of:$1~94 was 21 cents below the interim laan ratee~ Prices ·at Kansas

.. Oj.ty., ,r~c~~d :tl~eir_low last year on August 2 at about 18 cents below the _· , loan-; It,i~- to be eipected tha·t prices would be lower relative to the

loan this year than last year because the winter wheat crop is moderately larger -~d there. is less unoccupied storage space for use in storing wheat t~ ~~ offered as collatera~ under the loan program 0 The larger carey-over iias~.f would be .• a.Il;· important ne.rket'' faetor were it not that most o£ it ,~vil.L.be. owned. cy tbe• CCC or resealed· under loano However, with the· l;ib-

. , ... ~rlJ::~~tJ.oA: of th-e. ,p:rovi~ion ·to hcl.p farme+s store their grain' (See page 9),

. , :P~~-es ·wi;tl. no"t 4e~line as low as they would have othervvise. ·On Jl;IDe 13 , 'tha price of.No., '2 Hard Winter· at·Karisas City was only 5 c'ents_ belmr the inte:r~ loa.,n.rate.· , : · , · ·

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, .i(ll'lte:r'~·l949.;.c~qp :whst'loan and purchase agreement rates were authorized irl specified counties in ll·States, and at three terminal markets handling earzy:...h-a:r-ve-sted whea.ta Interim rates of ~2 .. 16 per bushel for u .. S. No. 1 wheat have been esta'blished ~t Los Angeles as well as Kansas City, and

- $2 .. ~6 ·at. Ga-lves;t.on. 'Last year, the '!'!rial rates ,Nere :W2. 24 at Kansas Cl tyJ .... $2. ~9 at Lo~ .(mg~lti:?~ and $2-..32 at Gaive~ton, Table 8 shows wheat loan

rates at ~ pe_cj.fic. terniina:i ma~kets'. na t.e.ona;!.: average to growers, and per­cent of parity, 1938-48 for han:iy ·comparison when the 1949-crop loans are announced.

MAY-JUNE 1949 - 8 -

As was the case last year, the_ Association of American Railroads ordered an embargo on the n1ovement. of wheat intended for stora:ge. effective June 1, in Kansas, Nebraska, Council Bluffs in Iowai Coloradop Missouri, East St~ Louis in Illinois, Oklahoma, and all points in 'fexas., except ports of Port Arthur, Galveston a~d HOltste>.n. . The ('iUilba?go does not pE:~rmit the movement of wheat for storage unless prior arrangements for storage have been made. In cases where storage space has been arranged the wheat will be permitted to move. Non-storage whedt to be off~red for~eale also may move but this will tmdoubtedly increase the quantity of wheat offered ·ror early'season sale and thereby be a price w~ening factor#

Wheat Prices in l%:9-50 May Aye£a.g~ !bo-q,t. lli 12!!1 .;;;;.Le_v~e:;:l

In the last 10 years since the loan program-was sta.rt~d (excluding the incompleted current year), prices have averaged below the loan in 3 years, 1938-39 ranging bet\'reen .3 and 4 cents (table ~). In- one of these 3 years, the program was new and slow in getting started with the net.effect,t~at only 86 million bushels were pledged for loans. In 1941-42 and in 1942-43 prices were depressed as exports were restricted by war and the carry-over reached all-time high levelse

Table 1. Wheat loan rate and actual price to growers, supp~y and distribution factors, and quantity pledged for loans, 1938-48 ·

-- ------------------ _...,...... ........,_ ~~- ~--:Average: :5 1 .d- di t ,~..,__, -;,,: t : Quan,tity pJ.qdged ·actual • · upp Y an ·~ r:~.oUt.,:on aetors. tor CCC ·loans ·.· _ • . • Pri"ee • • ;.;;._ __ _

Year :Loan : pr~ce : b :Total : : : Year-: In begin-:rate : to :~ ove:supply:Domestic: Net end : On ..: ware- : 1 ning :growers: oan : 2:/ : disa:Qi': e.."{{JOr~:carry-: fanns :houses : Tota July 1/ :pearan~- 3/ : .2!.2L.!. ______ ~~--

1?!.21· QQ!. Dol. Mil.bu. ~ul.bu .• Mil. bu. Mil.bu.Mi1,bu. 1-tl.l.bu. Mil.bu:-

19.38 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

.59

.61

.64

.98 :1.14 :1.23 :1.35 :1.38 :1.49 :L83 :2.00

~56 .69 .68 .94!

1.10 1.36 1.41 1.50 1.91 2.29

(2,.00)

-.03 1,073 ' .06 992

.04 1,.098 :-e03i. 1,330 -.04 1,600

.13 1, 599

.o6 1,419

.12 1,389

.42 1,253

.46 1,.451 (o) 1,4.s4

714 664 676 668 948

1,216 ' 1 987

894 771 775

(6so)

109 48 34. ·28 33

!:z/ ·70 -.111 39) 398 480

(500)

250 280 385

- 631 619 317

. 279 ·100

_84 196

(300)

23.8 33.0 50.1

118.9 186.2 45·5 -47.8 22.2 13.1'

.12.7

61.9 134.7 228.3 .24?.4 221 •. 9 84.7

332.6 37.5 8.9

18..5

85.7 . 167.7 . 278.4 366.3 408.1 130.2 180.4

59o7 . 22,0 31.2

1/ United States average for the yea;' obt.ained .by w~ighting :the -atmual State averages. · ' a/ Beginning carry-over plus produ~tion plus imports. 'iJ Includes shipments to u. s. Ter-ritories of about 4 million bueh&ls annually. lJj Exports totaled 66 million bushels and ;i.mport.s used to supplement domestic animal feed supplies totaled 136 million bushels. •Unrevised series.

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· · ·. Of l years 1n which :prices averaged. ahove the loan, the smallest amount was 4 cents ~rt 1940-41, when the carry-o·rer was considerably above average. In 1939 .. 40 the a-vere.ge :price was 8 cents over the loan, when

··the· ~y-ove-r was :l.ncreased only slightly by a crop of '{41 million bushels. During ·the-3 years··beginning w1tb 1.943-44, the U. s. shifted from net im­por~ to h~avy exports. puring th~se years, prices were 13, 6, and 12 cents, respect·:rvely above the -loan. The carry-over declined from 317 million bushels in 1943~ to 100 million in 1946. In 1946-47, 1947-48, when exports ~eached record levels, .prices averaged over 40 cents above the loan. In 1946-47 the carry-over dropped. to-only 84 million bushels •. In 194?-48, tb.e carry"-over remained. below average but increased about 110 million bushels.

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The situation in 1949-50 resembles that in 1942-43. Supplies for t~e coming ~ear are much greater than probable needs and a substantial ~n­erease in ·c.~ry-over 1s· in prospect. In 1942-43 supplies totaled 1, 600 million buskel& and the carry-over·was 619 million bushels. A carry-over this:large ts not in prospect for July 1, 1950, but, on the other hand, the general prie,e level rose considerably in the earlier period and, a decrease is now ex:Peated for 191~9-50. With the similarity between these two years, it would be expected that prices would average somewhat below the loan rate ~n 1949-50~ However, the liberalized storage program will tend to hold prices ne~ tbe loan level~

Loan Program Liberalized and ~creased Storage AuthoriZed

Following the st~1ing of the. b~ll on June 7 restoring to the Cam­modi~~ Creatt Corporation the authority (held by the Corporation from its inception until iast year) to assist farmers to store their grain and other products and to provide storage for these commodities when they are turned over -tn .the Corporation in the conduct of the authoriz-ed price support

· .,<progr.ame, the Secre"G!U'7 o+ Agriculture made the following statement:

. : ·· .i. Be-~use wheat is -already being harvested in the Southwest, and . because farmers are finding it difficult to make use of available com­merc~l storage, ceo will temporarily liberalize the provisions of its

· -:prioe.ia.upport grain loan program. This will make it possible for grain · : far:niers to take advantage of the p:roteotion offered by the support program,

even ·th·ough ad:equate storage t'acili ties are not immediately available to :!ihem·., · · ·

In all areas where climatic oond~ons make it feasible to store w.beat f~r short periods on the ground in the open, or in other temporary waya:whioh are ayailabie to farmers, ceo will grant 11distress" grain loans

' tmmediately. These distress loans will be granted with the definite unde~tanding that the farmer himself is to bui~d. or acquire satisfactory f~ storage facilities within not more than 90 days. When he does, and ~~Wheat is properly housed,. ~e .distress loan will became. a regular loan under the ·Ceo prioe'aup~ort progrrun.

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MAY ... JUNE 1949 --10 -

Se'Venty-five precent of the fUll support. level"will be advanced to the farmer at the time he takes out the distress loan$ He will receive th.e balance of the full price support loan -v·.hen the g~e.in is in his n~vr storage facility. Determination of ,grade and·quality will be made a.t the time the grain is put unde:r the distress loan')· The quantity will be esti­mated at the time the distress l~n is granted• and it will he finally checked and determined when thB grain goes into the permanent storage., The farmer will not be responsible for changes in grade and qru~li ty which r1ay occur during the period of the distr~ss loan.

In areas Yvhere 1, t 'J_s noi; fe~sibl~ fpr farmera to le~ve ''41~at in the open o;r- iH ~ther tempore,:ry· §torase, an<! ~1~rf) adeQ_uate storage faoili- ". tie~ are net available to them# the CCC itself will undertake to find sui table emergency storager, It "VJ"ill use Government owned w-ar-surplus facilities where available or take other special nwasuros to get the wheat uncler cover., This will J:nake it possible for farmers in such areas to take advantage of the distress loan provisions• q~ the same general basis as those where the clil'aate is drier and under comparable requirements for 1:\.0quisi-t:;~on of additional farm storage.

2e In an effort to mobilize tho maximum production- capacity for fa:rm storage facilities, the li1anufacturers and suppliers of on-the-farm type of grain storage'facilitios were invited to meet with off'icials in Washington on June 10. At that time~ a survey was made of the capacity" of each to produce and deliver, and areas of greatest need were defined. The Department hopes to complete discussions with these su:ppliers to pave the wa;,· for the early delivery of the ma:A'"imuin amount of storage and storage rraterials, so that far~£rs will be able to purchase and ere~t facilities as rapidly as possible.

Local de~lers and representatives-of manufacturers will not be by-passed in this effort to speed up delivory. 0~ the eontrary, al~ avail• able information as to names of suppliers as well as the' types and quanti ties of storag<:l ·facilities ,.,hj_ch can be produced by .the different· suppliers will be made available to the State and county Pr.'fA co:rmJ.ittees. These committees will thon be able to help local distributors bring to the attention of all grain farmers the availability of differe:nt types of structures, costs anC. o·l;her pertinent information.

As part of this effort to increa,se f~rm s'torame quickly, CCC will make loans to farmers for the purchase or construction of farm storagb to the extent of 85 percent of tne cost of th~ facility,. ~hose loans, bearing irrterest at' the rai~e of 4 perc'ent a year,_ "w~ll"be payable_ in five annual installments, or earlier at ·the far_mert s _option.

In addi tion1 and as a part of the fo.rm srborar:e loan program, the Department will" inolude a provision. for deferment. of rt:JpD.J11nents in a year when the farmer, because of c6nditions over which he has no eontrol1 ia not in position to ut:lliz-e"'tho stora.go space. To l.llustrat.e, in the event of crop failure in an o.rea1 paymontci "ror 'tha't 'yoe.r will be deferred .,.. in effect e:A.'"tcnding for a year th c time during 'lt'ihioh the total .stqrage loan is to bo repaid., '!he P:MA o o1mai ttecs vJill ne responsible. f'or det.ermining the looal justification for sudh ·deferrals.. · ' · '

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. _ 3, It is_anti~ipa~ed that CCC will be requir~d to carry over con-sidora.ble gra.i:h stocks from year to yearJ r~oth as a result of its price

-§uppo~t ~porations and in providing for carry-over of part of the nec­essary reserv~r_ supply in the national interest. CCC vr~ll therefore contract for storage fa.c'ilitii3s to be placed on'loosod sites at strategia poi~ts ~1roughout.the countfy1 for stora~o of CCC-ovmed or controlled grain stocks vhen other facilities aro not e.vailable.

The Corporation at present owns approximately 45 million bushels capacity of bin-type storage and believes that abou.t· an e.dditional 50 mil­lion bushels of comparatle storage, properly located, will materially assist' in meeting storage neods for the immediate future• This additional ~~oraga for CCC stocks will help ~ke it possible for farmers, grain dealers and·tho'ra.ilroads to handle the volumes of grain coming in at the peak af harvest.

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This CCC storage is intended to supplement existing facilities only ~o the extent necessary to'~lp meet urgent current needs. The bins or other s:tor.age facilities on thet::e sitos, ~~hen not needed by the Corpora­tion;· will be subject to lease by farmers or groups': of farmers. We ro­,gard the CCC qin purchase approach to tho grain storage problem as a

.'temporary measure# made necessary by the lack of"t~me in vmich to moot situations" \r,rhich are ·inunediately ahead.

Consid.Qri:n:g the· over•all storage question, Department surveys shovr that thore."is need for more elevator-typo storaeo to handle·our grain supplies efficiently in the harvest seasons and years ahead. There is obvi<msly -not time to do much in this direction to help with 1949 grain craps) but ~t is expected that cooperative and othar .corr~orcial interests. reoognizing tho future stora£;e ne.ods_, wi 11 start the necessary construction programs through tho usual_ channels of individual initiative.

'' Loans· on Farm-stored Wheat Renewable · ----:, o. r -:.,

A pro'grain pormi tting farmers to ( 1) renew their loans on 1948 -crop fanri~:Corod wheat and ('2) put pnrchaso agreement 1948-crop 1."lheat unf:ler farm-stdraga· loan to mature on April 30.,. 19501 or earlier on demand~ was anno~ced·on·May 12# ~Vhoat farmers takin& part in .tho program receive an imm~diate-~torago payment of 7 cents a bushel fQr the 1948-49 storage period, and from 19 to ll-1/2 oont.s, depending upon the area., f'or.tho 1949 ... 50 pc'l'iod on wheat delivered tq CCC at maturity of the loans,

Tl_le pX'ogram . iS des i gnod to- s 1 OYf down the. fl o\'l of .loan and pure has o agreement grain off:' the"fa:rms in excess of market r"oquircmonts~ It is -also a 1mPil o·f ·-tho ·nepartmentt s over-all objec·ti ve of· encouraging farm stm:ago o:r.:grai~s for orderly wn.rketing.a.nd effective prico s~pport.

· · ; :· : · :· Farrii-st'ora.ge loa:n,s· were n1ade on approxima-tely. 60 milli ::m bushels : o-f-··1948-orop wheat.: Quanti ties undo:r p"Ql.·c_hase agreements totaled about ·· il~ m3,.1Uo-ri'-bushols_. · Figuro.s aro' not'- avai'lablo as to how much ·tif. the ~~<:mase ·:a·~~eemont 1.11.hoat -~~ on_ farms. Loans on both farm-stored and w~rohouse-stored 1948-crop 1~1e~t bocame due on April 301 1949. on·farm­st-6rod. .. vmoat farmers were· givo:q. tho_ option of .paying off tho loan~, de­livering the grain to CCC, or renewing -the -loans for· another year, Ware­house stored wheat hns alrc~dy boon delivered to ccc.

MAY-JUNE 1949 - 12 ' .. On 1948-crop purchase.agreement wheat, CCC had agreed to buy duri~g

the_30-day period immediately following the ~aturicy date·of the 1~48 loans any quantity up to the maximum covered by the agreements at applicable loan delivery rates. Tne produc~?r is given the option of selling this grain to CCC, or keeping it, and putting it under loan at .the 1948-lo-an· rates.

1949 ~~ Price S~pEort Program

The program to support the price of 1949-crop wheat through ( 1) .1

farm-storage and warehouse-storage loans, (2) purchase agreements, and ( :3) in Georgia and South Carolina direct purchases of wheat was announced on March 24~ The actual support price will be computed on the basis of 90 percent of the wheat parity pric~· as of the ·beginning of the marketing year, July 1, 1949, as required by current legislation. Eligi~le wheat shall be wheat produced in the continental United States in 1949, grading U. S. No. :3 or better, or grading u. s. No. 4 or 5 solely on the factor of test weight.

In general the 1949 wheat support program will follow the pattern of previou$ programs, buttvd-11 be available to farmers from time cbf harvest through January 31, 19 50. This makes the new program available for an additional month. Loans will mature April :30, 1950, or earlier on demand, and holders of purchase agreements must declare within a 30-day period end­ing April 30, .1950, or S'l1ch earlier date as may be determined, their in­tention to sell to CCC. Since local storage fa.cili ties are· not presently available in Georgia and South Carolina, the direct purchase program which has been available in these States will be offered to producers fOT an~ther year.

THE ·;;QRLD WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- On July 1, 1945, stocks of wheat in tha four principal exporting countries were a record of 1,757 million bushels. By July 1945, however, they were down to 818 mil~ion bushels. They were 387 million in 1946.and 385 million in 1947. Greatly increased disappearance was cause·d by wartime depletion of food supplies in importing countries a-nd by poor· crops in many areas. Stocks in these countries on July 1, 1947-· were the smallest since 1938 and were about 1g.percent less than the 1935-39 average o'f 458 million bushels. On July l, 1948

'these stocks had increased to 552 million bushets.

European Crop Condi tiona Somewhat below 1948 Rains Impr:c;ve Canadian Pr0spects . _ -

Crop conditions in Europe, excluding the U.S.S,R., ·as of r.rl:id•May, as reported by the Office of Foreign AgriOliltu:ra-1. 1\elations, c.on:t;i.nue.d to point to a bread grain production below that of the favorab~e 1948 postwar year, when the wheat. crop was only i pe :re~nt below the. 19:35-59 average and: the l'Ye crop lB pereent below its prewa.r ~lterage. ~~11'Eir, prospects~for both crops ~re considera~lf ab~~e the outtu~ ~n the 1947 drought yearo ··

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·. ··.~ . : _- G~neral ~ins' :i~ late Aprf:l.' and tho first half of May bonefi ted .. 'orops Il18.tor.ially but' in·a f~'aroas including some ilnportant areas of

-southern and ~o'litlfoa:s~orn Ebropo. thoy dJ.d not occur until. after some crop detoriora:t~ol'J. had t!"kon place. .- · ·

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In northern and Western Europe the crondi tion of crops generally continued o:x:cellent6 but somo reduction-in wheat acreage has occurred in tho Unitod Kingdoi and·Iroland and conditions in Franco are less favorable -than they vro:re a year ago. This may rosul t in a slight reduction in crops in thts_ aroa compared with 1948 •.

·._In qent:i-~1 Europo1 ·crop conditions generally are below a year ago because of .below average rainfall. In wostern Germany a decline in bread­grain production is cxpcotod because of unfavorable 1:roathor ~nd soma shift to ooarso grains. Southern European c cun,tries report that there was considerable crop deterioration beforo tho April rains and production pl"ospects for winter grains a1·e poorer than a ·year ago.,

1 • Dry 'weather during tho fall ano. early spring has hindered plantings ,a;td rctardoP, 9rop grovrth in .eastern European countries1 except Hungary,

. , :where oond~ -b:i:ons wcro' much bott·or that:~. a your ago and larger acreages hav-e boen .seeded, •. Inadequacy of subsoil noi.sturc continued to bo a· common complaint over most of southern and eastern EUrope.

. . . Several of tho lo.rgor grain ·producing countries. have reported a b~co.CI.t;i"ain a""<?r9age no larger and in somo casas somewhat smaller ·than in 19481 while only o. fevr oi' tho slr.El.llcr eountrics hav-e shorm some expansion of wheat and rye aCl"t;Jago 6 AS a result,. thoro appears. to be o. decline in the toj;a.l breadgrain acreage. Tho' acreage of ooarso grains on tho o-l:;her hand ;may. i-ncrease. ·

rh~ o~~dition.of· winter 'moat and rye in tho Soviet Union (Europo and Asia) in ~d-.Ha.y 't\'aa· reported to be excellent or good. Spring plantings have ~no~a.ll~ progressed woll~ Tno soWing campaign v~s noarly completed

. ~n ~o souther-n r-egions in mid-May.·

~inc~ mid~ay1 general rains and showers wore rodcived nnd conditio~s 1~r$ ~ep~~cd gon9ral~y favorable in Europe, including the U~s.s.R. Ebtceptio~s in9luQ.o Rumania. and tho United Kingdom where additional moisture is still needed~ Crop_ conditions in Spain arc irregular. Trade ostimo.t9s for France are moderately bolt>v.T.: the 1935-39 average of 287 million bushels and much boloyr tho 300 million produced in· 19~. Those for I·tialy o.re only sH,ghtly below the' 2·50 million· bushels in 1948 and moderately below tho

.198"5 ... 39 avoro,go ~CZ!l: 278 ·:n.illion bushels;.· r~nd those for Greece point to a

. c.r.o,!l o-nlr slightly S:bov-c tho ,poor crop of' 21.2 million bushols in 1?17 e

- '"•.·· ~hQ. i~e~de~ ;;,ho~t 'S.arce;go· for ··ail Oo.no.da was reported at 27 ,o mil­llen,_-.an i~croe..s.~. of.l2 perqont· compar.ed .i':ith tho nctue;l soodings of

\' 24 •. 1 .milli~·,:l_n -1948• Tb,e''lar&ost :i:nc,r-uasc YJaS seheclulod for Sa.katohmmm,. whore condi.tio~ have boon 1east 'favora11lo for s-pri-~g 'sov.ring.· Intentions thoro WOrO :plo.ocd. flt 15.1.million aoros~ 0. gain of 45 porcont, COlilparod with 14.4 million· in l948e Alberto.' s acrcar.;e inf;ontions 1vere ~laced at 1.2 million o.crc.s, or 31 percent a.bovo 19~8 area. Intentions in I.Ianitoba indioa.toA an acroa&o of s.l million acres, nn increase of 24 porcent. Th.o.so tllroe Provinooe account for over 95 peroont of Canada's total wheat

MA.Y-JUNE, 1949 --14-

According Juo a late May report of the Dominion Bur_ea~·of Stat!:stics, timely rains have f.illen over wide areas in the Prairie Proviries·and have materially improved prospects in that area. Despite this overall im...:;. provEI'llent, moisture reserves remain far b8low normal throughout much of western and east-central Saskatchewan, cen-tral, ·east central ar.d north­eastern .Alberta and ln a fev'i' localities in Manitoba. In thesE:: areas, ' frequent rains during the growing season will be required to produc-e a satisfacto1~ crop~. Grasshoppers are reported hatcbin~ free~y in affected areas and control measures are in full s·vving. The infestation is p3.rtio.u-.. larly severe in central Saskatchewan.

-Soil conditions in Australia and'Argent~ha, where seeding is·now taking place for crop harvest in December, are mostly favorable. In Argentina the acreage is expected to be about the same as the small seedings of the past two years.

World Exportable Supplies above !ear Agg

Wheat supplies for export or car:i'Y~ver in the fo'ur· principal ex­porting countries (United States, Canada, Arg8ntina, and Australia) ·on May 1, 1949 totaled nearly 700 million bushels, or around 100 million bushels more than a year ago. Substantially larger supplies iri ·the United States and Canada more than offset ~aller -supplies -in Australia and Argentina. The larger supplies in the United States- are due pri.ncipa.lly to continued large production and the reduction in ~the amount ·used for· feed,

.while the larger 1948 crop' accounted for the increased supplies in Canada .. 1~eat crops in both Argentina and Australia this year were smaller than last year0 '. ~ --.T

The marketing years begin July 1 in'the United States, -August _1 ;in Canada, DecE-mber 1· in Australia; and JaiJ.uary 1 in Argentina:, · From the be­ginning of the marketing years to May 1, 1949, exports of vrheat, including flour in grain equivalent, were about the same as the same mont:hs last season and totaled 650 million bushels. Estimated exports by each COlmtry from tke beginning of its marketing year ·to May'l in million ·bushels were as follows: (Same months·of 1947-48 in pa·rentheses): Unit53d States 428 ;-( 412); Cana.da 151 (143); Argentina 28 ( 41_); and A us ~ra:lia 48 (.53).

WHEAT SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION TABLE RBVTSED : f

Revistons in the wheat supplly anQ. distribution table· are n0'>1.pos- -. sible as the result of improved figures an military procurement and by the use of flour procurement by the U.S .. D.:ta.. instead of,deliveries· fo.r expomrt, which do not alway!? take place iri the s'ame year' in whic;h t!}e flour_ is· pro­cured. Table 3 includes these revisions -on a mark'eting year _bajis ·add . table 4 for half years. A complete breakdown of exports f'-nolui1Dei··t.l<,;S.D.A. flour on ~ procurement bae1rtJ,. -shi];llll.enta and mili WJ".•PJ"..Oe~t is .pro­Tided iii te.bles 5 and 6.. De..ta of actural.:.~orts of wh~t:,Slid 'flour· (in­cluding u .. s .. D.A. exports instead of p~ment} 1' ·end _rld.;J.$te:rY exports for civilian feeding (instead of procur~nt') are shown i,n table 1 ~ ·'!he military procurement figures e.~e muoh· more r~11aole ;hsh' the'figuree on military e~ports.

-15-

.L _>~·The ~~l;a:pat;io:q of: the various itc:>..ms in thr: supply and distribution .. ta~l~,.,.,mos-t ~f the· .data o! ·which are U!lchanged from those previously used,; i~. ~s ;fo-J.J.ovvs:

. .' St~tist~cs of. prodv.ction· are derived from est:i.ma tes of .a.creage a~d yie,ld. per acre.., The level of ac:r-ee.ge es+,irnates is based on t-he agricultural c:en~.ut> ~at_ is_ usually t!:lken every 5· years by' the Bureau of Census ... In

.. inter.censaJ. years, the·. in<iications of acreage change are obtained each year .from ~pprox~~tely.200,000 individual farmers through-the cooperation of rural mail -ea:priers. Tl;wse are su_p·Jlemented in each State by returns to IT'~iled inquir~es and other indication.s o:f acreage of production such as ananuaJ. State~·: assess9rs!. enumera'l!ions, crop meter frontage measurements, carlot shipm~9ts~ el.~;ator and warehouse receipts, and other crop checks.

Yields per acre in census years are compiled chiefly from the census enumeration of acreage and production of individual c rops 4 In ·intercensal years, estima. ted yields per, acre are based on reports frcm farmers mi· the average·. yi.el<?..·~per acre in their lcicali ties a:nd on r'eports of acreage and p:rodugtion .oi. principal·c roos on ·individual farms 11 During the grarving se.;lson~, yj,'el4~ al'e forec.ast" from·.r.eported condition of -the crop$ . .. ,, .

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· Stock~. of wheat ~n July 1~ @-S no·;, reported .• consist of 1·fheat i;n the following pos~tions, ui th: the date ~in parentheses indicating the date when .f~-rst colle.~~~d: (1) on. farms;. (19.26) (2) in .terminal markets (1926); 'tJ)· iri i~te.~ip:r_. nills, elevators and warE;houses (1919); (4) in merchant mills (1930}; and Commodity Credit Corporation holdings not· ·othervlise ac­Counted for. (1942, v<hen such storage started)!. For ocrlier years back to 1909 toi-8:1 eomparaple.stocks.have·been· estimat~d·by Bureau af Agrio~~~:w.\~1 . Ecoriomicso !z/, ·

· .· . )',arm s;t.ocks are esti:uated-from individual .fa-rm reports of production and- grains Of\.-hand,. . Stocks in t~rrninal markets ( co:mmer cial s tocks) are re­po-rt.~d to :t;he-~ro~ction and Marketing Administration. -Stocks in ·interior

. mills, :elevatq,rs and warehouses come from sample data from these finus re­port~tl 'to the ·crop 'Reporting Board" Stocks in merchant mills'~ Jl9.30-441

consisted of ~e reported tigure .t:or wheat in m;ills and mill elevators at­ta.ched ~c) l{li*ls.,. 9wned by, :nulls· ·and. stored for others, .2/ Bureau of Census, raised 'to represent -all merchant m.i.lls; 19~5 reported by the Crop Reportihg Boardo CCC stQckS. not oth~vvise included in reports for other positions, cons~st of wheat owned by CCC in.transit·and in CCC-owned bins. Some new

, :whe~t. was incl'Q.ded iJ;l .commercial Ptocks ._and merchant mills prior to 1937 • \ . . .,_

. : .. ~ .' ~ports ipcluQ.e ·full-duty .~ea:t~ v.zh~t· imported for fe·ed, and duti--­·. able flq~?~ in· terms·. qf. i!heato . They exclude wheat .imported for mill~hg in.

bor.u:t and _expof'ted a~ flour., Such data. were compiled· from reports of the . <!3.~a~ ot_ C e_nsus" \ ......

> - I -I z -~ i ••I~- ... ~ ,.., ~ ~ ,' •\ > ~"* • ' o 0 •'' o

C/ Table in fu Whe~t illuation1 May-:June 1947, page 2, shmv);3wheat supply .. . ~na:. dist;r:i,.b11tion ~eginning ~~lit 19.09~ . _ . · · V S~O.oks- stor!3d f9r o'!;.~ers. in merchant mills and elevators attached, 1927-.j-O .estimated b~ Bureau of Agricultural. Ec;:onomics.

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MAY-JUNE 1949 - 16-

Expc~.ts prior to 1934_~ incl~de all, whe~t and flour e:x:Ported to · · f;:;,reign countries minus impoJ.~ts for milling in bonn; 19.35--401 exports of Nheat, and flour made wholly of United States wheat~ plus shipments. Data for years prior to 1940 were compiled from ·reports of the Bureau of 'Census. For tho -war years 1 U.Sr.D .. It. shipments for stc.ckpiling in the territories have been added to reported census totals~ Deliveries of wheat, flour, and other·v.rheat products by the Departmfmt of Ag:dcul.tuJ?e inclUde exports under ~end=lease and PNRRA programs and to cash paying g~vernments, as well as shipm~ts to the territories. Wheat, flourrand other products used for civilian relief in occupied areas are carried with other militar:y­takings;~ measured at the time of procurement • A1 though, military procure­me.::-rc of flour was reported for most of the war period, ;Jp_urchases of bread had to be estimated on the basis of surveys of naval shore stations and army hs.king facili.ties in this country,

The non-food items in domestic disappearance include seed, alcohol use and f6ed~ The quantity used as seed is reported by the Crop Reporting Board. The quantity u~ed for alcohol i~ an est~ate.by Bureau of Agricultural Economics as the quantit~ withdrawn from the whea~ supply rathe~ than'as r~­pol·ted by the Bureau of :tnternal Revenue when the tax is paid. The quantity t'.sed for feed includes that used in mixed commerc-ial feeds and wheat .t'6d on farms other than where grown, as well' as wheat fed on farms where grown. This is derived as a balancing item for the compntatJ.on1 hence co_nsidered alone it reflects errors in other data. Any revisions in the domestic fcod item as a result of the 1947 Census of Manuiacturers would resurt in chang­ing ·this residual i~em.

Wheat used for food~is ~onsidered at the time the wneat is withdrawn for processing rather than when distributed because no data on flour stocks are availablep Crdinarily flour stocks do not change materially. However, in some years relatively large stocks are held by wholesalers and· retailers while in other ;:rears such stocks are small. Th.e Us~ of wheat .for food was computed as follows: Total grind less exports·and shipments Qf flour and other food products, less military procurement 1 plus est~ated breakfast food prociucedr outside the flour-milling industry, plus dutiable imports of flqu'

':!Jota.l grind,data for 1927-.38 are- Census figures origina:lly expanded by Food Research Inatitute; 1939··48, millings re_ported tQ the Bureau -of the .9ensus expanded to represent all millsq 2/ The expanded Census figures will be . revised on the basis of data from the 1947 Census of Manufactures. In about January 1944 the adjusted f'lo'Ur production fi&.,UNs prepared by the Bureau of the Census wer~ :L-nproved notably. Production for 19hl-43 figures expanded by Census to repre&ent all mills may'be be too large. The series on breakfast food.made from wheat was.estima"t-ed-by the Bureau of Agricul­tural Eaou:>mic.s fr'OJ,n only limJ.ted info:tltla:tion,_ Data· from the 1947 Census will be ~sed to make revisionso

:2TRei5'Crted figures· were expanded by the Bureau of ~.en-Bus ·e:<:cept tor: ·194.3 · fur which the 1942 percent'age·was used because the use ~f the percentage of completion as given by Census reaulted in too large a gr~nd figure.

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WS-111 - 17-

Table 2.- Wheat: Estimated acreage and percentage of the various · 'classesll by States, 19441/

(Data for figure o~! _2.:..) -""'!""'-- ------: Eard ! Soft Hard Durum

Item Total"': 'red .red red and red Wnite

: . i .~ _..,01J,.,~ ;,. qgrin~, : 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 "---: acres acres Pet. acres Pet. acres Pet. : .............. : .............._ .......,_ .........-

Hard. Red Winter: · . · .' ··: .' ~-.. ·; - ....,__ 1 ~

Ke~eas :13;10) 1~,Jl8 94.0 778 5.9 Oklaho~a. : 5;206 4.:988 95.8 218 4.2 ">"'" Texas ; 4;450 "4~169 93.7 263 5.9 --Nebraska : 3,705 3,576 96.5 35 1.0 Colorado : 1;608 1,420. 88.3 . ·y gj . O~hers l/ : 1•117 819'73.3 6 0.5

·Total · ·- :29!;189 P.? .290 95.3 ·1,300 4o5 Sott·Rad·WinteN . ,

ontO:. : 2;oss -- 6 · o.3 2·.037 9'9 .. o-Mis~Quri : 1~714 119 7.0 1,593 92.9--Indiana .: 1;338 195 14.6 1;142 85 • .3 Ill.j,noi~ : 1,347 .297. 22.0 1,033 76.? Pennsy~vania : 940 3. 0.3 920 97.9--Nort:h Ca~: 613 -- - 599 97.7 -Virginia : 574 - - 574100.0 -Kentucky ; ·512 4 Oe8 507 99.0--Others W . : 1,7S9 3 rr.2· 11785 99~8 ;....-

90 2.4 179 11.2 147 13.2 423 L~4

1 0.1 8 o.6

Total .· :10~885 627 5.8 10,190 93.6 9 0.1 Hard Red Spring:"" -----

Nor£'fi""1)ikota ~ 10.162 - 3 zJ Montana: · ·: 41313 1,234 28 .. 6 South Dakota :- 3';255 · 203 6.2 Minnesota :. 11329 · 151 11.4

~-- -SJ361 82.,3 3,015 69.9 2,756 84.7 1,114 S3 .. 8

-

-1,000 acr'ee Pet .. --

18 0.4 Y. Y. 4 Ool Y 21

. . 9 0'.~

7 o.6 13$ 12.4 _;..,_.....;.~!o:--=--=--

29 o • .;;;;.1 __ 1_.4 .... 7 __ o_~ 5_

-2 0.1 -- 15 0.7

9 0.7 17 1.8 llr -2.3

1 0 .. 2 - l'y'

2 Y::::::s7::o:.~5: ).,797 17~7 . 30 0.7

257 7.9 64 L~.s

1 ?) 29 0.7 39 1.2

-----,..,.-~~-· ·, 'I'otal_.i/ ·~:19;0bl 1,·591 8.3 ~ White · :

15,248_ so .. o 2,148 11_.3 ____ 6_9_0_.4_

--walhington · ~ · 21 5~7 '676 2S"6 Oregon : · 976 . 117 12;.0 Idaho : 1,0!)6 · _)96 37.5 Michig~p . : ·971 ~ -Ca.l.U'ornia" : ·596 ' 3 0,5 Othe:rs·:W : ·413 ~ ' 9 "2.2 - Total ; . 6~549 .·..at:2o:n llh'

United.~ates :

• 71 ··2.a 2 0.2

13 ~.J 330 34.0 - -

16 <Y .. 6 10 1.0 5.4 5.1 2 0.2 -

26 6.3 . 4 1.0 . -. 442 ?;.a ._ · . s6-~L.3 -..

1,774 70.0 847 86~.S 593 56.1 639 65.8 593 99.5 374 90.5

total :65,684 30,709 46.8 11;·~7 18.2 15,766 24.0 2,179 3.3 5,093 7 57 t : .. .

!/ Froin i~istr~but~on of the Varieti.es a!ld .Classes of ...,Wh_e_a~t-i~n-t--h-.e-.· United States in l944"'By J~~Allen,C;t.ark an~_K, s. Qu.is~nberry, U.S.D.A. Circular 761 January 1948"• ?J. Less ·than ·e>.1· 'percent or le's's than 500 ·acres. ~New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Iowa, Wisconsin. · · W Tennessee, Maryland, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, New Jersey, De1awaN Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama. · 2/ Hard red spring and total columns include 2,000 acres for Maine. 2/ New York, Arizona, and Nevada,

/

Table 3o•, l'fueat: Supply and distri.but;ion. United Statss, July year, 1927..48 y' ~~

Carry-~ ~"" ~D

'Ye9.r : t ~e,ntial. Un.U.ed Sta.tep_d:isame~r..!~~: be- i over New :Imports: Total 1Pl·oc essed: t ~

Twtal ' ginning: stocks: crops : y ' supply 1 for food: Seed Feed

domestic; Jul 2 1,ooo ,ooo 1,000 :~~ bushels bushels

1927 :109,456 875,059 188 984,703 1928 :112,756 914,373 91 1,027, 220 1929 : 226,821 824,183 53 1,051,057

1930 ~,115 886,522 354 1,177,991 1931 : 312, 505 941,540 7 1,254,052 1932 :375,257 756,307 10 1,131, 574 1933 1377,700 552,215 153 930,118 1934 ~2.893 526,052 15,569 814,514

1935 1936 1937 1938 1939

1940 1941 1942 1943 1~

1145,889 628,227 34,617 808.733 :140,433 629.,880 34,455 804,768 I 83,167 87~,914 634 957,715 :153,107 919.913 271 1.073.291 ~250,016 741,210 263 991,488

1 279,7Zl 814,646 31 523 11 0971 890 :384,733 941,~10 ~,664 1,330,367 :630,775 969,381 : 1,057 1, 601, 213'­:616~897 843,813 136,360 1.599,07~ •316,555 1,060,111 42,3n l,419,Ql3

'

1,000 bushels

002,745 89,864 508,479 83,663 004,292 83,418

489, 575 81,132 482,830 80,071 492,368 83,760 448,396 78,051 459,089 82,686

472,563 87,479 4'77,914 95,896 474,644 93,060 481,418 74,225 475,352 72,946

478,006 74,351 471,084_ 62,490 002,418 65,487 491,600 77,351 477,668 80,373

44 51

57 51 39

103 89

101 1,614

54,342 107,527 82,295

.oo 11000 .E..'!shels b11shels ""=-. __,..,

8-5,419 678,028 63,865 656,007 28~895 616,605

179,001 700,208 190,240 753,141 142..,807 718,935 102,357 628,848 113,485 655,311

101,105 ss1,ro4 115,802 689,663 133,484 701,227 157,997 713,743 115,041 663..,428

122,746 67 5, 704 116,348 651,536 298,407 920,654 497,846 1,174,324 296,369 936,705

1945 1279,180 1.1cs,224 1,958 11 389,362 467,054 82,011 20.911 303,943 1946 :1001 088 11 153,046 -.. 57 11 253,191 477,341 86,498 ~iH!i,i9l 1947 z 83,813 1,367,186-· .130 1,451,129 486,348 90,746 700 185,733 1948 !/:195,926 1,288,406.... -- 1,484~1-·(479,ooo) 91,337 \ c/'J c11

• \ . . \--4 , o I

Mi'utsxy:

-16,133 25,244 ,62,159

150,146

~---"~~~~~' . ~

" . Tot.r.(.:t Ship= ; Ebcports~ .... .

§/ rt.:en• s o rl~~ap-y "

8 psarance

1tooo--=--:t';OOo~

191,227 141,220 140,354

112.4~ 122,897

31,866 25,598 10,531

4, ?JJ7 9,267

100,060 106,645 '44,868

33,619 27·,859 30,856 42,339 48, 77'i

bush~?ls --2, 692 3,172 " 2,983

2,850 2, 757 3~023 2,7'79 2, 783

2,889 2, 996 3,321 2,888 3,471

3,834 4,064 ~562 3,093 4,2:16

bushel~ --~

871.347 800.399 759,942

865~4-86 878z,795 753,824 6578 225 668~ 6215

668,300 701.,926 804.608 823., 2'16 711.767

713,157 699~592 982,316

1,282,515401 1,139,833

1,289~274-1,169,378 l,255,204""

1 See text far aources a.nd mor~ detailed expl~tion of itEIIlSe . y Pi'ior to 19~7 some new wh~t included in oonmercial s~ocks and meroha.nt mill stocks posi tionsJ beginning with 1937 only old ct'op whea.t is shown in all stocks positions. The. figure for July 1, 1937, including the new 'Wheat is 102.8 million bushels, which is used as year-end carry-over in the 1936-37 narketing year. · !f!mporb include full.i.d.uty wheat, meat imported for feed, and dutiable flour in terms of \'ilheat. ·They exclude meat imported for milling in bond and export as flour, also flour free for export. " !/ Includes procurement for both civilian relief feeding ahd for lllilitary food use; military takings for civilian f'eeding in occupied areas measured at time of procurement not at time of shipment overseas. 2/ Exports as here used include u.s.D.A. flour procurement' (111ee table 5) rather than deliveries for export; the letter a.re shown in table 7. Exports exclude shi:pmel?-ts by military for civilian _feed~ng. 2/. Ship;nenta ·a.re to AWk:a, lJa?m.ii, Puerto Rico, a.na Virgin Islands. 1J ~eliminary. . · ·

I ',I )

~ ..-:; ~ C1 ~ 1-' C.0 II>-\D

' -....

I

~ ..

carry-

• j

"able 4,- l!l'heat: _ Sup~ly and d.isia-ibution1 United States,, half' years 1935-38 1:/ " : Continental United States disappeara.nce : Military=

•

Period GVer I New Half' 1 stocks years t 2/

a Imports: : y : :

Total s : : : : I supply :Processed, Seed : In- : Feed Total pro-

&ports 1

y crops : for food 1 :cbstria~ : domestic: cur4jent:

a 1,ooo 1,ooo 1,ooo 1,ooo 1,000 1,ooo 1,ooo 1,ooo 1,ooo 1,ooo abushels bushel• bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels buShels bushels

1935 I · ' ;.·;.

'Jaii:-June• 431.,8,f,& 71 204 439 1 088 221,848 271 211 July-Dec.: 14518'8'9(,· 628,227 211 047 795,163 238,644 58,297 1936 I

~-June1 428,494 13,570 4421 064 2331 919 29 1 182 July-Dee.: 140,433 629,880 26,292 7961 605 251,362 67,824 1937 Jan.-June' 3701 997 July-Dec.: 83,167 873,914 1m Jan.-June: 533,239 July-Dec.: 153,107 9191 913 1939 : Jan.-Junel 646,805 July-Dec.: 250,015 741,210 1940 Jan.-June: 606,014 July-Dec.: 2791 721 8141 646 1941 :

8,163 626

379,160 226,552 28,072 957,707 247,434 65,183

8 533,247 227,210 27,877 61 1,073,081 252,788 53,597

210 111

647,015 228,630 20,628 991,336 249,714 50,419

152 606,166 225,638 22,527 368 1,094, 735 243,870 54,392

'Ja'il.-June: 723., 776 3,155 726• 931 234., 636 191 959 July-Dec,: 384,733 9411 970 2,453 11 329.156 244,388 45,670 1942

27 27

40,135 66,240

30 34,865 24 100.527

27 18

21 52

51 44

45 50

51 24

15,275 69,519

63,965 73,403

84,594 55.123

59,918 54,259

68,486 14.688

Jan:-June: 999,919 July-Dec.: 630.775 9691 381 1943

1., 211 l,ool,l30 226,696 16,820 1. 590 101,660 167 1,600,323 265,165 44,819 10,647 106.,149

Jail.-June:l1 l52,414 890 11 153.304 237.253 20 1 668 43,695 1921 258 July-Dec.: 618.897 843,813 48,524 1.511,234 263,801 54,583 50,382 287,518 1944 Jan:-June: 8171 599 87,836 905,435 227,799 22,768 57,145 2!0.328 July-Dec.: 316.555 1,0601 111 371 619 1,414,285 242,708 58•409 53,971 164.634 1945 : "Tali:'-June: 828.347 4, 728 833,075 234.960 211 964 28,324 131,735 July-Dec.: 279,180 1,108,224 11 875 1•389,279 252,653 59,113 19,408 164,268 1946 : Jan:-June: 681,992 July-Doc,: 100,088 1,1531 046 1947 'J'iUl; -June: 642,277 July-Dec.: ~y:

83,813 1,367,186

Jan.-June: 801,612 July-Dec.:

~v =

195,925 1,288,406

Jan.-June: 859,077

83 682.075 214,401 22,898 27 1,253.161 275,908 62,956

30 642,307 201,433 23,542 46 1,451,045 263,763 66,952

84 801,696 222,585 33 1,484,364 250,973

23,794 66,803

Footno.te are i,he srunc as for table 3.

600

100

139,675 105,102

~~ 61,573

124,160 ~e·a

289,221 363.208

297.996 419.737

269,926 382,154

319,073 379,840

333,903 355,300

308,128 352,571

323.132 304,770

346.766 426,780

493,874 656,284

518,o4Q 519,722

a. 993 9,272

15,972 17,347

45,412 41,878

416,983 1081 268 495,442 61,832

378,537 443,966

"·c; x ·\ -~ 392,888

370,639 ~

29,066 37,884 7'/ ')I'('

-5~ 67,037

79,450 106,-594

2,026 4,450

4,817 40,701

59,359 44,946

61,699 28,270

16,598 16,744

16,876 15,778

26,009 147,903

172,089 126,802

153,567 180,948

\,

-s

Ship• :Total melts • disap•

2/ ;pea.r~e 1,000 1,000

bushels busheHf

1, 520 293,199 1,280 366,669

1, 609 301, 631 1,421 425,608

1,575 276,318 1,613 424,468

1, 708 380,140 1.490 426,276

1,398 397 ,ooo 1, 752 385,322

l, 719 326,445 1,644 370,959

2,190 342,198 1,549 329,237

2, 515 370,355 2, 550 447,909

3,012 534,407 1,492 693,635

1,601 588,880 l, 570 585,938

2, 635 553,895 2,110 707' 287

2,295 581,987 2, 232 610,884

1, 913 2,106

558,494 649,433

2, 115 60 5, 771 2, 1:-,, 625, 28 7~-

\

.... (()

(

'!able 5.- Wheat: lb:porb, ehipmente all4 lllUtar:r proeare~~eot, b7 &geDC7 and product 111. 'llbeat equ1w.leots, VD1te4 ltatee, .T'IIlT 7ear, 1927-118 !/

Yeazo I ..._

~ I I I .Jull' :co-rc1al.:V.8.D..&.: !otal. :Co-rcial:P c

1927 1921 192.9

1930 1931 1932 1933 193~

1935 1936 1937 1938 1939

191io 1~1 19112 1~3 1~

I I 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 : ba.ebe1e !!:!!!!!!!. ~ ~

1115,999 103,Uil 92,115

76,_365 't6,521 20,817 18,800 3,019

)11 1.161

83,'fll0 ~.589 23,6)6

0 1lt5.999 0103,11~ 0 92,175

0 ~.365 0 9'.521. 0 20,SS7 0 18,800 0 3,019

0 311 0 3,168 0 83.7~ 0 ~.589 0 23,636

115,221 )8,lofi 1!8,179

J6,o63 26,376 10,979 6,798 7,!)12

3,896 6,099

16,320 22,056 21,232

0 45,228 0 )8,1o6 0 l!S,l79

0 36,o6J 0 26,376 0 10,979 0 6,798 0 7,512

0 3,896 0 6,099 0 16,320 0 22,056 0 21,232

1 lee tan for- allll.-n 118ta11e4 uplaDatloo of 1 ...... !}_lb:porte acl.11118 ehl~DIU liT llllUU7 for cirt11aa fee4111g,

1,000 1,000 ~ bushels

= 153 515

0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 87 343

1,271 1,1q; 1,924 2,071 1,667 2,182

191,227 1~1,220 1~.3511-

112,~ 122,897 31,866 25,598 10,531

~.207 9.267

lOO,o6o 1o6,6115 114,868

33,619 27,859 30,8;6 ~.339 l!S,777

5,536 6,726 319,992 37~ 3,1192 326,975

1,1ll5 6,666 31io,969 -0

6; 70 69

77 36 62 llg 55

65 liS

1o6 100 119

73 94

1 0 0

116 167 127

1,000 1,000 11!!!!!!!!. ~ --=""'"-.;.::;;=:..=

2,627 3,102 2,914

2,773 2,721 2,961 2,730 2,728

2,824 2,948 3,215 2,788 3,352

3, 761 3,047 1,314

317 379

3,626 3.975 4,091

923 ~.247 2.776 3.826

~3 3 3

2,627 2,692 3,102 3,172 2,914 2,983

2,773 2,850 2,721 2,757 2,961 3,023 2,730 2,779 2, 728 2, 783-

2,824 2,889 e,94S 2,996 3,215 3,321 2,788 2,888 3.352 3,471

3,761 3,834 3.970 4,o64 5,561 5,562 ' --3.093 3.~~/ 6,151 4,205 4,i!ll5/ 48,207

I ll,2S9 4,405\ ~.379 3.978 .4,1115' li4,5CJ.) 4,094 4,221l101,319

. If, -v'l¥~1

v

1},434 2,699 16,133 18,992 6,252 25,2114 39,90716,701 62,759 77,515 24,424 ~0,11ib

38,511 5,508 90.891 45,177 1,oll6 ,0, 721 114,176 992 1~.l!S7 ~l.o o.-r 17f. 1,.

3/ v.s.:D.A. flcnar pn-t rather th8ll 118Unrin for ezp~rt; \he latter are llhow 111. table 7. !Z.U.l~. . 5/ ~te aret. .u.ua. ~1, Purto ll1co, aD4 Yirgill blud.e. !J Iul:r111lle ;,r-nt ~or both cirtUaa relief fee41Dg aDd &r m111tar:r footl uae; •11it&r7 taldage for cin Han feeding" 111. occupied - -.aretl at tble of procure-t,

BOt at tima f4 ehl~t -· 11 Pn11111J1ar7.

•

Table 6.- Exports, shipments and military procurement, by &g&ncy and pronue~ in wbeat equivalents, United States, half years, 1935-48 l/ ~

;... .... .... I!Eorts 2Z 'hi:ements 2 Z Military proaurements §] Wheat Flour el : Other 11roduets -- : Flour and other 11roducts : I

Half Tears : -u.s.D.A. 1 Total llfheat I : : I Total I : ; : : Wheat :Flour : utfier : Total :Commercial:U.S.D.A.: Total Commercial:P~ocurement: Total :Commercial:U.S.D.A,:Total :exports: / :Commercial:U.S.D.A.:Total lehip~e~t8 1

I 2l 1 I I I 2l I i I I I I I : 11rod. :~ilit~ ~ 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 l,OCO 1,000 1,000

___ ~bushels ~ ~ 1bushels bushels bushels bushel! ~ ~ bushel a ~~~ bushels~ bushels bushels

1935 Jan.-June: 61! 0 ~ 61! 2,390 0 2,390 0 2,458 31 1,41!9 0 1,489 1,520 July-Dec,: 165 0 165 2,Cil6 0 2,011> 0 2,181 34 1,246 0 1,246 1,280 1936 Jan.-June: 146 0 146 1,880 0 1,880 0 2,026 31 1,578 0 1,578 1,609 July-Dec.: 1, 733 0 1, 733 2,717 0 ) 2, 717 0 4,450 21! 1,393 0 1,393 1,421 1937 Jan.-June: 1,435 0 1,435 3,31!2 0 3,3f!2 0 4,1!17 20 1,555 0 1,555 1,575 July-Dec.: 33,413 0 33,413 7,2815 0 7,21!8 0 40,701 51 1,562 0 1,562 1,613 1931! Jan.-June: 50,327 0 50,327 9,032 0 9,032 0 aa·359 55 1,653 0 1,653 1,708 July-Dec,: 36,576 0 36,'576 8,370 0 8,370 0 ,946 Go 1,430 0 1,430 1,490 1939 Jan.-June: 48,013 0 41!,013 13,686 0 13,61!6 0 61,699 4o 1,358 0 1,358 1,398 July-Dec.: 15,201 0 15,201 13,069 0 13,069 ...:. 0 28,270 69 1,683 0 1,683 1,752 194o Jan.-June: 8,435 0 8,435 8,163 0 8,163 0 16,598 50 1,669 0 1,669 1, 719 July-Dec.: 5,945 0 '5,945 10,799 0 10,799 0 16,744 &4 1,51!0 0 1,580 1,644 N .... 1941 Jan.-June: 4,866 0 4,866 12,010 0 12,010 0 16,876 9 2,181 0 2,181 2,190 July-Dec.: 8,244 0 8,244 6,575 705 7,2fl0 216 38 254 .15.778 86 1,463 0 1,463 1,549 6,091 l,o49 7,14o 1942 Jan.-June: 3,374 1,014 4,31!8 3,508 4,096 7 ,f'io4 4o 49 !'19 12,01!1 g 1,51!4 ~23 2,507 2,515 7.343 1,6'}G 8,9q3 July-Dec.: 1,1!90 337 2,?27 5,107 1, 74o 6,847 70 1&3 233 9,307 0 1,106 l, 41+ 2,550 2,550 7,343 1,929 9,272 1943 Jan.-June: 3, 734 592 4,326 4,360 11,621 15,981 134 l,l!D8 1,242 21,549 1 208 2,803 3,011 3,012 11,649 4,323 15,972 July-Dec.: 7,124 391 7,515 4,488 5.498 9,986 liS 963 1,011 18,512 0 160 1,332 1,492 1,492 11,649 5,698 17,347 1944 Jan.-June: 3.750 678 4,42!! 9.245 9,088 18,333 105 961 1,066 23,827 0 157 1,1)1.14 1,601 1,601 6,151 28,251! 11,003 115,412 July-Dec,: 5,408 193 5,601 9,402 6,448 15,850 339 978 1,317 22,768 0 161 1,409 1,570 1,570 2,807 27,457 11,6111 4J ,878 1945 Jan.-June: 4,106 9,303 13,409 11,735 0 11,735 176 689 865 26,009 0 218 2,417 2,635 2,635 45,400 50,058 12,810 108,268 July-Dec,: 14,767 100,460 115,227 17,583 9.777 27,360 289 5,027 5,316 ll17. 903 65 1,387 658 2,045 2,110 23,700 33,505 4,627 61,B32 1946 Jan.-June: 20,705 90,205 110,910 31,815 27,954 59.769 901 509 1,410 172,0~9 51 2,239 5 2,244 2,295 ?3,179 5,006 8ol 29,06€> July-Dec.: 5,284 70,961 76,245 34,242 14,591 ljg. 833 !,411 313 1,724 126,802 133 2,099 0 2,099 2, 232' : 26.076 11,292 516 37,884 1947 Jan.-June: 7,997 69,771 77.768 87,934 32,703 120,637 1,707 61 1,768 200,173 34 1,876 3 1,879 1,913 18,429 33,885 5~~ 5?,844 July-Dec.: 7,668 112,194 119,862 51,697 14,477 66,174 878 4S8 1,366 187,402 77 2,026 3 2,0:-<J 2,106 48,570 18,015 452 67,037 1948 Jan.-June: 6,305 81,193 87,498 32,700 28,'J6') 6o, 769 11 .373 9?7 5,300 153.567 50 2,065 0 2,06'i 2,115 52,749 26,161 540 79,450 Ju1y-Dec~0,277 <)1,487 121,764 54,107 4,269 58,376 700 9 808 1RO,'l48 83 2,055 0 2,055 2,138 81,'550 23,510 534 105,594 h : ...._

Footnotes are the eame ae f~r table 5.

JU.t....IUIII! 1949 -22-

Table 7, - Wheat and !lour: C-erc1a1, United states Departaont ot .&¢culture anllllilitary exports ae !'elated tc exporta repert.ed b7 Dept.rtaeat. of Cc.~erce, Jul7 7"U"II aad half 7"U"e, 191,].-48

c-odity an <I

period

"' WHEAT (F).our shown pel<>w]

l.9J.I'"l2 • July-Docosber January-June

Total

~ July-DecOIIber Janu....,..,une

Total

.l.W:!ill July-Dee.U.er 1 J811\141')"-June

Total

~Dec tabor January-June

Total

~ July-December 1

January-June Total

12li7=J& July-Deo~er 1 January-Juno

Total

~ Jul,...Decellber J&~~uary-.lune

Total

~ .July-DecOIIber 1

J~UD8 Total

lW.::Ir.lt July-Dee•ber January-JUDe

Tot.al

~

1,600 .lw.ll!l!

7,124 3.750

10,8'74

7,668 6.305

13,973

15,471

1,000 WI!!!!

10,08.3

13,7.3.3

July-DaeOIIber J...,.ary-June

Total

9,4012 .L U.736

~ July-Dec,..ber January-J1111e

Total

~ July-Dec-mer

21,138

17,584 Jl.815 49,.399

U,B.R.R,A, I

1,0150 .llJWIW

17 17

1,000 .lm!IW.!

14,589

U. S, D. X. export•

otber

ll 1,060

lmW.l!

1.014 1,014

337 592 929

391

1,~

89,156 Ql.l93

170,.349

91,48'7

1,000 lm!!AW

705 ~..no 4,815

1,727 8.744

10,471

\C\ -\\, 5,8'76 8.m

14,

1,262 ~.m

,.33.3

15,990

: llilitary to r I Ge,..IUI1" 1 financed b71

U, I, :

23,038

1,000 .II!WW.l

Total u.s.n.A,

exporte i,ooo

lm!.IW.!

.3.37 592 929

391

1,~

193 9.3~ 9,4

112,194 8J..l93

91,48'7

1,000 l!!W!W

705 4.ll0

Tot.d I

1, 1,000 ~ llliJ.IlW

5,601• )3.409* 19,010

104,958

1,000 lm!!W.!

7,2801' 7.6].810

14,898 "'\L;:.......t..~-\'~

8,958 45.1t9Q

46,318 g.010 97,328

82,037

1,000 l!!WI!!!

1, 727 I 6,8.34* -8.7ltlt . lJ.l.Qit• ;

1,262 5·797 7,059.

n.s13 1'f.Q66 .30,579

10,664*/ 17.5J'l! 28,197

2'1,(1}7& 50.881* 79,978

Jl,9ll 3.578

Tot &I export a inc1ud1Ag llilitary

1,006 WIIW

11,943

14,559 58.~

304, 88

188,99,..

1,000 .lill!liW

7,280 7.618

14,898

6,834 J3.10!t 19,938

Jan~une Total 122,177 25,005 5, 70 11,8'77 42,552 ,729 1,883 1 • 12

l~~eeOIIber ·-~S!~·~6~97~----~~----~l~0~,8~"f----{-'~~9:-,~~"i~~7~~~ ~----~2,0,~.3!~~--~~~----~~~~--~~~~1299' January-J1111e .. 28 .__., Total 84,3 39,21 9,"9 1'74, . ·

~ July-DecOIIber 54,107 8,209 8,209 ~ 62,.316 l81 S55 81,171* January-June

Total I

* Aeterlsk indic~tee exports as reported by Departmeat of C-ane, Y Includes Lerld..teaee exports to caeh-])llt.lille ii'OYrme. 2/ 77,769 buohels ao ehown llinuo 11,358,000 bushels llilit&r)' exports to Geruny -financed by the United Kingdalll equals 66,411,000 buehel .. reported by Departaent of C-erce, Jl 119,1162,000 1111111~• u lfhOWJl llinua 23,0.38,000 buehe;La llilitary export• to Geruny financed by tho United Killgdaa equale 96,824,000 buehe1 .. raportod by Departaent of C-oree, JJ Plour in wheat equivalents, j/ 114,4481 000 bushels aa shown llinuo 10,595,000·buabelo llilitary to Ge,..any tinanced b7 United fC1D&Ilca equale 10.3 ,a" ,000 buohelsl', the grain equivalent of the quant1t7 r~rted by Departaont of c-oree,. !J/. 72,otfl,OOO bllllhela as ehown llinua 9,539,000 military to Gemany fUwaced by Unit.ed ~ equals 62,550;000 bushel .. , the VUn ~Teleat. qt the quantit7 reported by Dapartaent of C-ai'Ce. t 1. _

~ ~1.2-U/ 6 ~·'/-~ . , !. !/ ". 'l'

( ~-

••

l '

'tablet & • ..-. \ilfheat l.oan rates: : ·At :sp~c:i;fio -terudrial ~rkdts, na n-~nal . average to -~ . . , . •· ' gr01'JerS I and' perciont Of ·parity 1 1938-.48 . , .. •

'.:Ya'~i· 1:· ·G&unoea 1C5an ;.attr·~t ·~_a;~;-~r ~~: · ~--. : ~Av~~age :A~~;a~~ ·;~·~~~u~:~d~ 'be .. t u 2 -~.:s : • lroe2 : .:l\fo.-: 1 Dk.t lto.i~: Noe2~l~an mi-: '1.oa~ . ; . =rate per-

-~~o. ;g,u• , . . " . B~"'f <i'{i.nter~at I .. liard . : No• :Sp. i ~oft :.Red . :nounoed· :r'eceivod: ; ocn~ of n?-D-$'ID\ns -~·t JWJ.ttter' at: at· Kimle ... ~i'Vb.1te a.tta.t St • .: to ·? by : , par1 ty y' Ja;lif! · ,;~ .. J. ~ Y a Chicago :: , a.;e<~l:,i_s / Port.~.n~~~s · qijr~'!!!~ :grow~ ----

'': ,RollE! £?.11.a:r~. Do.llars 'D.ollars ·DoJla.l'S ·Dollar~ ·Dol~~rs· Percent l938,J ·;y;2_ ': ;.11" :~81 ~67 ~73 ~ 0 59 ·~5~ 52 l939t j7!r . . •. ~80... ~~8'1· · .. ;· -;..7·3--·, " ~80 . •, ;.61 .... ·~63.' 55 1~40.~ •· .. - ~?7~·- ... '? •.• 81' ... .,87 ... ' ~:~:-73'·, .. ~~1-'-~-" .64' ·. -~&55 - 57 1~41'• "'i;~lo· .. · 1~15 1,15 1~os 1;.15 ~98 •·98 ~ 85. 194~= J.jt'l7 - l,e'3 2 10 3~ · T •. 21 · 1~ 3 2' · 1·~ l4 i~ 13 85 1943: 1:~37 . '1;~42 .,. 1·.·4a 1~34 1.42 · 1~ 23 i~ 25 85 1944: 1.50 1.55 19 53 1~46 1~55 1~35 1~38 SO 19451 1~ 53 1. 58 1. 55 1~49 1.58 1.38 1,~345 ,. 90. ~ 19~6:; l..-64-·, .. 1·.69 ··1.ss r~6o 1.69 .. 1~49 1~445 9o 19'47.1 - ~02 2.01 - 2~04' 1~;e8 · z.o7 ~ 1.8.3 j1.,..84 eo l948J \2.23 2. 28 • 2. 25· 2~1s 2. 28 2.op eo 1949,: ' ' ' ' ' .•' . 00mP11J~.~om :re-cords -'O~f'-t..-:h-e-·~c~o-mt)':t'ih·ty Credit Corporation.. . 11· Pari~~ is d~t~rmined by multiplying the base price to growers. of 88.4 ~ents por bush-el ~ft\.'\l!erage of 60·months ·from 'August 1909 to July 1914) by ~he ind{3:X:' of prices pai~! in~e~ost ~nd t~xes (l9l0-14alOO), ~hioh ~n mid~June ~948 ·~s 251 p~rc~nt.

-~.·'ft. ... l . .. ..... '

TaDle 9w·1~eat1 No.2 Hard Winter:· Price, loan value and ceiling at K-a.n.-s-&8' City~· 1937·-4'9·

~ ....

(Data for cover page)

. ' ·: ,, '.. .. ~-:--~-

17~~~tcd by we~ghting selling price by.number of ourlots sold as ,repor~ed .in the 'fa~,...s' ,Qity Grain ·Market Revietf-6' In this pt'ice1 ·wheat of above as ~~ell aa: below . 13 poro,ent protein i·s inc ludell•*" y Loan ra'te is for i"Jh_e.a,t of 1 ess :Shan 1~ percent• 'C•il.ing. became effective Janus.ry-·_4~- 1944 at··'$1.62 inoludi.ng l-1/2' oents cqrmnission, bas:l-3 >~t"otein of'· J:es-s than 13 1Ji!ll"cent. On !leo ember 13, .... ~1S44 it vl8.s'"" raise.q· to

.;· ~*,.-.~9;., .911-.,,V~Y ,:w, .. ~~45 to .. $l.,.6~n, .. ..on . .Ms.rcli..4,- 194~-te--i1l-&.-1; ·and--n-rr-'tft3.y~l3~ '-TS46~to , .. 1~7 ,.IJ... On June 30_. 1946 ceilings ex.pired.

MAY-JUNE 1949 --.24 -

Table 10•• i'fueat: Weighted average cash p:rioe,. specified markets and dates 1948~49

--------------- .... ___ "'!""" __ ...._~ ---------- --=---· Month

and date

~ :· . ~

All 1 No. 2 • N 1 :· N 2 N "l t c 8.sses :' Dark Hard ~· o, o. O• f:.

t I No-. 1

Soft :and grades : and He.r d :~ ·Dark. -,. Hard : Red : six : w· t r N. Spr:t.ne; :Amber Durumt Wl.nter : · wheat ' me.rke:ts : TT- l.n ere •·t :Minneapolis :-Minneapolis-: st. LolliS :Portland ]/

r~nsas l y • : _____ ~.............. r~ :. =-----·-·----~~

: 194~: 1949: 1948: 1949 1- 1948 1 1949 1 1946 1 1949 1 l94er, 1949! 1948! 1949 ~- .,, : t : . f : t : t ----=--....---- ------.;;...• -: $

: Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol: Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Ddi~ Dol. --:---- ----- ~ - ~ _,.._ ......... ~· ---- ~ ---=----- ~ Month· Apr. M~y

Week endedt

Apr.

:May

June

2 9

16 23 30

. •

7 : 14 21 28 4 s

•

2t.62 2~62 2.67 2~62 2~57'

2,60 2~58 2~59 2;;61 2.61

2.28 2.30 2.31 2,28 2. 26 2.27 2~29

2.24 2.25 2a12

2.45 2.40

2.44 2e46: 2~49 2.46 2.39 2.42 2.42 2.39 2,36 2.39

2.25 2 .. 27 2.27 2.25 2~25 2,26 2~25

2.23 2; 23 1.99

"""1J_..A.,...v_e_r_a_i_e ·_-o--::f~da-:i:-::1:-y-cash qu ota:t'ions ~

2.65 2.67 2~73 2.67 2~61 20 62 2~61 2.62 2e63 2.62

2.33 2.35 2.~6 2.34 2~30 2.35 2~33 2.,32 2.31 2.27

3.06 2.31 2. 98" 2.18

3.04 ~~11 3~07 s.oa 2.98 3~00 2;..95 2.96 3.,00 2 .. 98

2.34 fe31 2.32 2.33 2 •. 27 2. 22 2~25

2..25 2.80 2.29

2.59 ~56 2,59 2~51 2;43 2~44 2~48

2.50 2,/41 2.39

2~37 2.34

---2.36 2.35 2~Z7 2.36 2.33 ---2;31 2.36 2.14

2.39 2.36

2.39 2;.41 2.41 2.3.8 2~~ 2;:sa · 2.37 2~37 2 • .34 2.30

2~21 2~,22

2.21 2.21 2~22

2.21 2.20 2~ 20 2.23 2.,23 2.23 2.15

T!lble --u.- Wheat: 4verage olosi~g prices of July wheat futures,. specified markets and dates~ 1948-49

Chicago Kansa:t· d! ty .

~fnneapo};is • t . • .. '• 1 - T .. Period : t I • : ·:

194$ 191:9 1948 .

1949 1943- 1949 f "'. . : . . .. . I Dollars Dollars Dollars· ·Dollars Dollars Dollars

Month· .. • Mar;.. •· 2'~26 .. 1~91 2~15 h82 2~29 1;94· ' . Apr. '• 2~36 1~94 2-.26 1.85 2.-39 1 •. 99 .. May . -2.34 1«95 2.25 1.89 2~36 ~·03 .

Week ended: '• .

Apr~ 2 ·: 2.32 1~91 2~ 21 1~82 2~.35 1.95 9 :.- 2.36 1.,93 z;2a UB3 2'~38 1~95

16 :· 2.,39 1~4' 2'~29 1~95,. 2~42 1.98 23 • 2~.37 1~96' 2'18 1~86· . ' 2~41 2~02 . . . 30 :.. .2 •. 32. 1~95 2~24 1.86 Zi.-36 2~02

1~94 1;.ss . 2;34 z;oz May 7 : 2~33 2~.24

14 . 2;.34 l~$5· 2~24 1.s-e . 2~36 ·2~2 . 21 ffF 2..,34 1.,9'6 2.-25 1;.81 '2;37' 2~04 .. 28 1- 2~35 1~.95 . 2 .. 26· ,-l--86 . ; 2~38 2.06

June 4 J 2.-33 1.8,8 -~.,23 1-.7·9 -· 2.36 2-.oo I

• -. ..

<,

.. , .. ; . \'' ) .. ' .. ~ ' \.- ~ l r , t.,.,. 4 '",

., !.;k

.,

I~

••

l' ·' •

-.'

. '

·•m ;" ,) .. ~ ,:,.·{~; ., . ~ ~ --·; - ?5 - ,_

,~".. -

· ,.·:s· · ·. "'1'a·b11€ ·J.a..- ·-Wheat;· -Prices per bushel- in three .e:;cporti·ng countries, Friday nearest mid-month, Jan.- lvla.y

Date (Friday)

Weekly' -Apr~-June 1949 ·. ~--·.: ·- · ·_ ·'

~- HARD WHEAT : HARD· WHEAl!\ , ,SOFfiHEA=T;::;__ __ . : United States Ca.rteda :United States:United· ·-.: : No. 1 : No. 2 No. 1 = States ~ : Dark : Manitoba Dark : Nool : :Northern Spring f at : Winter :Portland:Australia : 1.3 percent :Fort William : . Galveston : ]} JJ : protein a. t : Y : _ }} : : : Duluth 1:/ .. . Dollars

: . •

. c

: Dollars Dollars

~Jl . . . . - . • ......!--Dollars Dollars

Friday mid-month : :V 2.50 January 14 : 2.30 2 • .32 2.,44 2.225

February 11 : 2.24 2.18 2 . ..35 2.16 _,

March ll , ·., ·: 2.33 2;16 2.42 2. 2.3 5 2.18' 2.4.3 2.22 2.1.3:·. 2.42 ·- 2.25 ,,

.... ~· ___ ,A_pr1-t.l4... . . . : ... -~- 2.37 May 1.3 ·. ·_:-~ · . · _2 • .35

Weekly'·. : .... - April·. 1 ·, : --·. 2. .35 : ·: · 2-.~o 2.445. . ·2.20

8 ... = . . . _,2.37 . ·-. 2.18 2~46 2. 20 , " · - - .. ,; - 22 · "'i: - · :-·: .. -"Z .33 · · · 2 iz ~ " · 2. 21' · ·. · ' "

fl. • • ..... ~ • ~, -lo • • " • .. • 1-

.···:· ~"29' .. :·' ..... -. ''"2~.30 ·---··-~-- - ·2.12" ' '2.'.385 2~17''', ' ~1.- ·. 6 .. : 2 • .3 5 2.14 2. 42 2. 21

20 ', 1 2.25 2.10. I 2.40 .· ~~22 27 : , __ - 2.,32· :-. 2.07 2.05 2;24 .

_ , __ June. _ 3 . _ .. : .. · . . _&Q_ .· -. ., 2.0.3 · 1.98 2.15 - -1J F._9.Bo sp(.)t to arr:i.v:~· Y Fort ~illiam CiUOyation is in store. ·_j/$2.~0 fox;

Britain, t>ther coU!il1;ries $2.66: · ' { -.. " ... . :

. ' . '

Table 13•- Vfheat: Stocks. in the United Stat_es .on April 1, · .. :. _ , Average· ~938-42~_ Ai:muals 1944-49 ·

· ,- .• ! s{ k_-- ~b -. t. . ' :- :Average: . 1944 : 1945. : '1946, : 1947 : . 1948 ; .: .1949 :. : op s ~ SJ._J.on_-· . :1938-42: -· : -. ·, : , :. : . ...... ---. . . i 1_,000 ' ; 1,000 1,000 1,000. 1,000-. '1,000. 1,000

~~ -;:·- ·: :. _, · - · ' :bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels b\lshe1 s by.$hels .. ,.,,, __ ,~ ....,... · .. • ~ ... • . . ' • l ' 1 ••

·Farm ~ ...... :..:. ......... ~. :183,307 219,1.37 .23.3,856 198,481 139,851 -256,986 2.39,315 In~erior mills, eleva tots: · _ · · . ~ . · . · · - ,.anQ. warehouses ••••••• :112,814 66>> 5.35 130,386 .36;477 61_,000 75,434 145,811 T-ermiQ.als (commercial) •• :124,4.38 1~~ 1700 99,644 .34,.317 .32,8.38. 70,~74 124,656 Merchant. mills and mill : ' . · . •, elevators 4•.• ••••• ~ ~ ... ; 91,290~~,38.8 78,788 ~5,8 __ 99. 71,95?, 7',2/ll4 -. 6.3, 229

·· •·· tii>imoai:ty ... bredit ·c-~tp~·,' ·=- ·· · ·, .. ·--" P.... --- " ·-•- wheat in t:ransit and : ·· · ,;., ·., .......... \ .. -... ": in s·teel-Jlnc;l wood 'bins:· :_ . '38~51S 15/l'lO 6~961 2,903 . 31 845 . 3,3?6

Total, •••.•.•• :511,849 544,275 558,444'332_,135 . .308,549 480,J.?.:3 .576,387

~ercia~ stocks at terminals are reported by the Production and Marketing Ad­.:ministra:tion'. Commodity Credit wheat in their st~el and wooden bins and in 'transit as r.epbrt~d by the Commodity Credit Corporation. Stocks in the other

·tiiree positions at-e estimated by the Crop Reporting Board. , .. E4-:BY-F~,:? ;t,n :!fkf-"e. 'Ga:t>l~. i~cl1J.de qu~nti tes o~ed. by the Government or still out­. ,,standi11g u.nder Goverrnnent loanCi . .

tr. s • De~Ttment o:f' Agriculture Washinston ~5 1 D~ c.

PeJ~.~t;y f'ol' ppivate use to avoid ·payment of postage $300

Oll'FICIAL BOSilmlSs

BAE·WS-lll-6/49-3200 - PERMIT NO. 1001 · -.

MAY•JUNE 1949 .. 26 -

Table 14.- Wheat: Production and fann disposition, Unit~d States, 1929-48 J/

:_Used .for aeed· · : . ·Ped to : Ground at mills Crop: . . : : Home li vesto'ck : for home use Year:Prod~t~on: To~~l : grown . Y • or·exchanged . . : 2£ for flour •

: 1,ooo. bu. 1,ooo bu~ 1.ooo bu. 1•000 bu .. 11000 bu. • . . 1929 . 824.183 83;418 00;740 58;827 6i694 • 1930 . 88~;522 81,132 78;0.35 157;014 10;181 . 1931 . 94~;540 80;071 73;356 173,8.34 15;082 . 1932 : 756,J07 83,760 79 .. 617 124'691' 16,125 •• 193.3 : . 55;2;215 78,051 68;24S 72,13·2 16,296 1934 : ·526·0;2 s2.,6a6 6.6;360 83;588 15.,455 - ,. 1935 : '6~8,;2?7 87;479 75;158 83,375 16,179 1936 : 629~~~0 95;896 71;471 88;638 13;723 1937 : 87.3•914 93 .. 060 80;914 112;613 13,226

' I ~938 : ·919,;913 74;.225 65,651 123;103 / 13,639 1939 : 741;210 72;946 60.185 ?1;737/ 11)084

.1940 : 814;646 14· 3'5~ 62;047 9.?;.972 10;348 ., '

1941 • ·941;970 62;490 54;004 ,-9S,_E!71 9;020 • 19~2 : 969;381 6;;4$7 55;040 "91.;315 7,259 1943 : . 843;813 77;351 61;571 "B9;B21 5;690 1944 :1;060,;111 90';373 64;731 103·;420 513-83 1945 : li 1os-, 224 82;011 67;371 98;201 4;$71 1946 :],;15.3;046 86;49$ 68;491 SS;.?Ol· 3;850 1947 -:1;..367;186 90;746 73;459 9~681 4;:387 194r:t'l,2SB,406 . 91,337 72,734 ~02,617 4.,211

Sold or for aale

11QOO bu ..

677;922 641;292 679;268 535;874 395.;542 360;649 453;515 456;048 667;161 73;.7,520 578.;204 643;279 ?ao;075 815;767 686; 731 8$6;577 937;-781

. 995;004 1;196;659 1,108,844

l/ Dat~ for 1909-28 in.Ihe Wheat ~~tuatiQn for May 1941, page 16. ~ Relates to qu~tities used by produeers on their o~ ·farms; ~dditional qUanttt~~~:are also utilized • . -iJ p "tl,.lr.J...i • • , :.i/JY r:t!eA;~n&ry e . . ·

•

'"' 'I 't

, . ' , .!I

I