United States Department of Agriculture National ...11-10-15 November 2015 Crop Production % Change % Change From From Crop Unit November Previous Previous 2015 Forecast Season Production

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

November Crop Production Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

November 10, 2015

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Citrus Sugarbeets

Soybeans Sugarcane

Cotton Dry Edible Peas

Rice Lentils

Peanuts Austrian Winter Peas

Sorghum Fall Potatoes

Cottonseed

Contents

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

Objective Surveys

(Size and Drop)

Fruit Maturity

Survey Type Field Observations Laboratory Tests

Crops Included All Oranges, Grapefruit

Sample Size 1,825 groves 425 samples

Collection Period Oct 12 – 23 Oct 28 – 30

Survey Overview Florida Citrus

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

November 2015 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit November Previous Previous

2015 Forecast Season

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.50 -4.7 -13.7

Grapefruit Thou Tons 819 -0.5 -5.9

Tangelos Thou Tons 18.0 -10.0 -41.9

Tangerines &

MandarinsThou Tons 843 NC NC

11.4

12.7

13.7

9.82

13.0

12.2 12.4

11.5

12.9

9.259.02

7.63

10.1

9.13

8.24

8.91 8.98

8.27

6.776.38

5.50

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million Tons

Orange ProductionUnited States

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Sample Size 9,203 4,972

Collection Period Oct 28 – Nov 5 Oct 24 – Nov 1

Survey Overview

USDA-NASS

11-10-15


% Change % Change

From From

November Previous Previous


Corn

Harvested Mil Ac 80.7 NC -3.0

Yield Bu/Ac 169.3 +0.8 -1.0

Production Bil Bu 13.7 +0.7 -4.0

Crop Unit

7.40

9.23 9.21

9.769.43

9.92 9.50

8.97

10.1

11.8

11.1

10.5

13.0

12.0

13.1

12.4 12.3

10.8

13.814.2

13.7

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Billion BushelsCorn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

2004

20052006 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014Aug-15

Sep-15Oct-15

Nov-15

0.260

0.270

0.280

0.290

0.300

0.310

0.320

0.330

0.340

0.350

0.360

25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500

Lbs/Ear

Ears Per Acre

Corn Objective Yield RegionEars Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

Year Dent Stage Mature

Percent

2011 < 0.5 94

2012 < 0.5 95

2013 < 0.5 86

2014 < 0.5 96

2015 < 0.5 96

Corn Objective Yield - November Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

USDA-NASS

11-10-15


% Change % Change

From From



Soybeans


Yield Bu/Ac 48.3 +2.3 +1.7

Production Bil Bu 3.98 +2.4 +1.4

Crop Unit

2.17

2.38

2.69 2.742.65

2.76

2.89

2.76

2.45

3.123.07

3.20

2.68

2.97

3.363.33

3.103.04

3.36

3.93 3.98

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Billion BushelsSoybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

20102011

2012

2013 2014

Sep-15

Oct-15 Nov-15

0.260

0.265

0.270

0.275

0.280

0.285

0.290

0.295

0.300

0.305

0.310

0.315

0.320

0.325

1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900

Grams/Pod

Pods Per 18 Square Feet

Soybean Objective Yield RegionPods Per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight

Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield / Pods) /0.0889

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

Year Mature

Percent

2011 95

2012 94

2013 73

2014 92

2015 95

Soybean Objective Yield - November Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab

USDA-NASS

11-10-15


% Change % Change

From From



All Cotton

Harvested Mil Ac 8.15 -0.2 -12.8

Yield Lb/Ac 782 -0.3 -6.7

Production Mil Bls 13.3 -0.4 -18.6

Crop Unit

17.9

18.9 18.8

13.9

17.0 17.2

20.3

17.2

18.3

23.323.9

21.6

19.2

12.812.2

18.1

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

13.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Million BalesAll Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

USDA-NASS

11-10-15


% Change % Change

From From



Rice


Yield Lbs/Ac 7,423 +1.6 -2.0

Production Mil Cwt 191 +1.6 -13.7

Crop Unit

USDA-NASS

11-10-15


% Change % Change

From From



Peanuts

Harvested Mil Ac 1.57 -0.5 +19.0

Yield Lbs/Ac 3,922 -1.9 -<0.1

Production Bil Lbs 6.17 -2.4 +19.0

Crop Unit

USDA-NASS

11-10-15


% Change % Change

From From



Sorghum

Harvested Mil Ac 7.65 NC +19.4

Yield Bu/Ac 77.7 +3.6 +14.9

Production Mil Bu 594 +3.5 +37.3

Crop Unit

USDA-NASS

11-10-15


% Change % Change

From From



Production

Sugarcane Mil Tons 31.7 +1.3 +4.3

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 35.2 +1.3 +12.3

Crop Unit

USDA-NASS

11-10-15


% Change % Change

From From


2015 Forecast Year

Production

Cottonseed Mil Tons 4.26 -0.4 -16.9

Fall Potatoes Mil Cwt 409 NA +1.2

Crop Unit

USDA-NASS

11-10-15


% Change % Change

From From



Production

A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 274 NA +21.8

Dry Edible Peas Mil Cwt 19.6 NA +14.0

Lentils Mil Cwt 5.32 NA +58.1

Crop Unit

USDA-NASS

11-10-15

Release Date Report Title

November 19 Farm Labor

November 20 Cattle on Feed

November 30 Agricultural Prices

December 1

CAIR: Cotton

CAIR: Oilseed Crushing

CAIR: Fats & Oils

December 10 Crop Production

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National Agricultural Statistics Service

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United States Department of Agriculture National ...11-10-15 November 2015 Crop Production % Change % Change From From Crop Unit November Previous Previous 2015 Forecast Season Production