Unit I Valuation of Shares

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    SECURITY ANALYSIS & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

    UNIT I: SHARES AND THEIR VALUATION

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    WHAT IS GOODWILL?

    Goodwill is the value of the reputation of the firm which the

    business builds up due to its efficient service to its customers

    and quality of its products.

    http://educ.jmu.edu/~drakepp/FIN362/resources/industry.pdf

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    VALUATION OF SHARES

    a share represents an interest in a company. There are a

    number of ways in which the shares of a company may be

    valued. It can be valued either as an entitlement to a

    share of future profits, or as an interest in the net assets

    that comprise the company.

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    FACTORS AFFECTING VALUATION OF SHARES:

    The nature of the companys business.

    Percentage of dividend declared on the shares.

    The demand and supply of shares.

    The income yielding capacity of the company.

    The availability of sufficient assets over liabilities.

    General economic condition.

    Financial, political and others factors affecting the business.

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    METHODS OF VALUATION

    Assets Backing Method:-

    This method is also known as assets valuation method or

    intrinsic value method. Under this method the share value is

    simply the net assets or equity divided by the number of

    shares.

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    THE FOLLOWING POINTS ARE IMPORTANT AND SHOULD BE

    BORNE IN MIND FOR ESTIMATING THE NET ASSETS:

    The fixed assets of the company should be revalued at their net realizablevalue.

    Inventory should also be taken at current market prices.

    Investments should be taken at current market prices. These can be taken atcost if the fall in the market value is believed to be temporary.

    Other current assets like bills payable or sundry debtors should be could bevalued at their expected net realizable value.

    All fictitious assets appearing in the Balance sheet are to be eliminated.

    Goodwill may be valued on the basis of super profits.

    All unrecorded assets and liabilities are to be taken into consideration.

    all external liabilities are to be deducted to arrive at the net assets figure.

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    THE ASSETS BACKING METHODS IS GENERALLY APPLIED

    UNDER THE FOLLOWING CIRCUMSTANCES:

    For formulating scheme of amalgamation

    For acquiring majority of the shares and controlling the company

    When there is liquidation.

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    YIELD VALUE METHOD

    This method is also known as Market value method.

    The world yield means a rate of return relating cash

    invested to cash receive.

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    DIVIDEND YIELD

    there may circumstances where the shareholder has little

    or no influence over dividend policy. In such cases it may

    be more appropriate to value the shares based on

    dividends than earnings.

    Value per Share= ()

    ()

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    THE FOLLOWING MATTERS MUST BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION

    WHILE MAKING AN ESTIMATE OF THE EXPECTED FUTURE PROFITS

    AVAILABLE FOR EQUITY SHARE DIVIDENDS:-

    The average past profits of the company require an adjustment, if

    necessary, should any special factor cause the future profits to differ

    from the past.

    Adequate provision should be made for depreciation taxation and

    other liabilities.

    The amount of profits to be set aside for preference share dividend.

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    DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL

    the value of an equity share is equal to the present value of

    dividends expected from its ownership plus the present value of the

    sale price expected when the equity share is sold.

    Assumption:-

    1. Dividends are paid annually.

    2. The first dividend is received one year after the equity share is bought.

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    SINGLE-PERIOD VALUATION MODEL

    Let us begin with the case where the investor expects to hold the equity

    share for one year. The price of the equity share will be:

    P0=

    (+)

    (+)

    Where,

    P0 = current price of the equity share;

    D1 = dividend expected a year hence;

    P1 = price of the share expected a year hence

    r = Rate of return required on the equity share

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    Ex.1 Prestigesequity share is expected to provide a dividend

    of Rs. 2.00 and fetch a price of Rs. 18.00 a year hence. What

    price would it sell for now if the investors required rate of

    return is 12 per cent?

    Ans: - Rs. 17.86

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    WHEN EXPECTED GROWTH RATE INCLUDED

    What happens if the price of the equity share is expected to grow at a rate

    of g per cent annually? If the current price, P0, becomes P0 (1 + g) a year

    hence,

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    Example2. The expected dividend per share on the equity share of Road

    king Limited is Rs. 2.00. The dividend per share of Road king Limited has

    grown over the past five years at the rate of 5 per cent per year. This

    growth rate will continue in future. Further, the market price of the equity

    share of Road king Limited, too, is expected to grow at the same rate.

    What is a fair estimate of the intrinsic value of the equity share of Road

    king Limited if the required rate is 15 per cent?

    Ans:- Rs. 20.00

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    EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN:-

    What rate of return can the investor expect, given the current market price

    and forecast values of dividend and share price? The expected rate of return

    is equal to:

    R = D1/P0+ g

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    Example.3 .The expected dividend per share of Vaibhav

    Limited is Rs. 5.00. The dividend is expected to grow at the

    rate of 6 per cent per year. If the price per share now is Rs.

    50.00, what is the expected rate of return?

    Ans:- Rs.16

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    MULTI-PERIOD VALUATION MODEL

    Having learnt the basics of equity share valuation in a single-period framework, we now

    discuss the more realistic, and also the more complex, case of multiperiod valuation.

    Since equity shares have no maturity period, they may be expected to bring a dividendstream of infinite duration. Hence the value of an equity share may be put as:

    Where

    D1,D2, Dn= Annual dividends to be received each year.

    Pn= Sale Price At the end of the holding price.

    r= required rate of return

    n=Holding period in years

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    Example.3 .if an investor expected to get Rs.3.50,Rs.4 and Rs.4.50

    as dividend from a share during the next three years and hopes to

    sell it off at Rs.75 at the end of the year and if his required rate of

    return is 25% what will be the present value of this share to the

    investor.

    Ans:Rs.46.06

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    ZERO GROWTH MODEL

    If we assume that the dividend per share remains constant year after

    year at a value of D, Eq. (b) becomes

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    A firm pays a dividend of 20% on the equity shares of face

    value of Rs.100 each. Find out the value of the equity share

    given that the dividend rate is expected to remain same and

    the required rate of return of the investor is 15%

    Ans: 133.33

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    CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL:-

    One of the most popular dividend discount models assumes that the

    dividend per share grows at a constant rate (g). The value of a share,

    under this assumption, is:

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    MULTI STAGE MODEL

    The constant growth assumption may not be realistic in many situation.

    The growth in dividends may be at varying rates. A typical situation for

    many companies may be that a period of extraordinary growth will prevail

    for a certain number of years after which growth will change to a level at

    which it is expect to continue indefinitely. This situation can be

    represented by a two state growth model.

    In this model the future time period is viewed as divisible into two

    different growth segments the initial extraordinary growth period and the

    subsequent constant growth period.

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    MULTI STAGE MODEL

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    Price Earnings Based al ation

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    Definition

    The price to earnings ratio (P/E

    ratio) is the ratio of market price

    per share to earnings per share.

    It is also sometimes known as

    earnings multiple or price

    multiple

    Price Earnings Based valuation:-

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    CALCULATION (FORMULA)

    Price to Earnings Ratio =

    Earnings per Share Price to Earnings Ratio = Earnings after Taxes and Preference Dividends

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    The average P/E ratio is normally from 12 to 15 however it depends on

    market and economic conditions.

    P/E ratio may also vary among different industries and companies.

    P/E ratio indicates what amount an investor is paying against every

    rupees of earnings.

    Price Earnings Based valuation:-

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    Sr Company Last Price Change % Chg CEPS * EPS *

    1 Tata Elxsi 507.75 2.65 0.52 26.61 19.00

    2 TCS 2,189.80 11.60 0.53 89.34 85.24

    3 Oracle Fin Serv 3,096.50 21.80 0.71 141.90 134.94

    4 Infosys 3,780.80 30.05 0.80 184.11 167.46

    5 Wipro 586.45 8.35 1.44 29.01 26.17

    6 HCL Tech 1,546.85 15.95 1.04 75.95 69.63

    7 Acropetal Tech 4.85 0.07 1.46 3.99 0.25

    8 Persistent 1,141.35 20.45 1.82 75.54 60.62

    Chan

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    Sr Company Last PriceChan

    ge% Chg CEPS * EPS * P/C P/E

    1 Tata Elxsi 507.75 2.65 0.52 26.61 19.00 19.08 26.72

    2 TCS 2,189.80 11.60 0.53 89.34 85.24 24.51 25.69

    3 Oracle Fin Serv 3,096.50 21.80 0.71 141.90 134.94 21.82 22.95

    4 Infosys 3,780.80 30.05 0.80 184.11 167.46 20.54 22.58

    5 Wipro 586.45 8.35 1.44 29.01 26.17 20.22 22.41

    6 HCL Tech 1,546.85 15.95 1.04 75.95 69.63 20.37 22.22

    7 Acropetal Tech 4.85 0.07 1.46 3.99 0.25 1.22 19.40

    8 Persistent 1,141.35 20.45 1.82 75.54 60.62 15.11 18.83

    S C L P i Ch % Ch CEPS * EPS *

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=24&sortcode=3http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=24&sortcode=1http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/tataelxsi/TEhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/tataconsultancyservices/TCShttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/oraclefinancialservicessoftware/OFS01http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/infosys/IThttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/wipro/Whttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/hcltechnologies/HCL02http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/acropetaltechnologies/AT21http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/persistentsystems/PS15http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/persistentsystems/PS15http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/acropetaltechnologies/AT21http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/hcltechnologies/HCL02http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/wipro/Whttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/infosys/IThttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/oraclefinancialservicessoftware/OFS01http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/tataconsultancyservices/TCShttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/tataelxsi/TEhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computerssoftware/tataelxsi/TEhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=24&sortcode=1http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=24&sortcode=3
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    Sr Company Last Price Change % Chg CEPS * EPS *

    1 IOB 45.35 -1.15 -2.47 4.50 3.40

    2 SBI 1,505.50 -5.25 -0.35 164.61 149.34

    3 IDBI Bank 55.80 -0.40 -0.71 7.99 7.22

    4State Bk

    Mysore391.95 4.15 1.07 60.54 50.74

    5 PNB 535.00 -4.45 -0.82 110.08 101.28

    6

    Bank of

    Baroda 530.40 3.40 0.65 109.44 102.46

    7 Dena Bank 51.85 0.15 0.29 11.34 10.46

    8 Andhra Bank 54.50 -0.75 -1.36 13.16 11.74

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/indianoverseasbank/IOBhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/statebankindia/SBIhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/idbibank/IDB05http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/statebankmysore/SBMhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/statebankmysore/SBMhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/punjabnationalbank/PNB05http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/bankofbaroda/BOBhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/bankofbaroda/BOBhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/denabank/DBhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/andhrabank/AB14http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/andhrabank/AB14http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/denabank/DBhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/bankofbaroda/BOBhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/bankofbaroda/BOBhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/punjabnationalbank/PNB05http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/statebankmysore/SBMhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/statebankmysore/SBMhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/statebankmysore/SBMhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/statebankmysore/SBMhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/idbibank/IDB05http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/statebankindia/SBIhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/bankspublicsector/indianoverseasbank/IOBhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=10&sortcode=1http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=10&sortcode=3
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    Sr Company Last Price Change % Chg CEPS * EPS * P/C P/E

    1 IOB 45.35 -1.15 -2.47 4.50 3.40 10.08 13.34

    2 SBI 1,505.50 -5.25 -0.35 164.61 149.34 9.15 10.08

    3 IDBI Bank 55.80 -0.40 -0.71 7.99 7.22 6.98 7.73

    4State Bk

    Mysore391.95 4.15 1.07 60.54 50.74 6.47 7.72

    5 PNB 535.00 -4.45 -0.82 110.08 101.28 4.86 5.28

    6

    Bank of

    Baroda 530.40 3.40 0.65 109.44 102.46 4.85 5.18

    7 Dena Bank 51.85 0.15 0.29 11.34 10.46 4.57 4.96

    8 Andhra Bank 54.50 -0.75 -1.36 13.16 11.74 4.14 4.64

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    Sr CompanyLast

    PriceChange % Chg CEPS * EPS *

    1Maruti

    Suzuki1,682.00 -1.40 -0.08 168.29 106.68

    2 M&M 942.85 -0.05 -0.01 72.44 60.90

    S CLast

    Ch % Ch CEPS * EPS * P/C P/E

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/autocarsjeeps/marutisuzukiindia/MS24http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/autocarsjeeps/marutisuzukiindia/MS24http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/autocarsjeeps/mahindramahindra/MMhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/autocarsjeeps/mahindramahindra/MMhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/autocarsjeeps/marutisuzukiindia/MS24http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/autocarsjeeps/marutisuzukiindia/MS24http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=57&sortcode=3http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=57&sortcode=1http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=57&sortcode=1http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/pe/bse/index.php?indcode=57&sortcode=3
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    Sr.no CompanyPrice

    Change % Chg CEPS * EPS * P/C P/E

    1Yuranus

    Infra10.29 0.20 1.98 0.01 0.01 1,029.00 1,029.00

    2GMR

    Infra19.95 -0.35 -1.72 0.09 0.07 221.67 285.00

    3 Siemens 588.00 -2.35 -0.40 12.51 5.49 47.00 107.10

    4 ABB 677.00 -2.35 -0.35 13.35 8.47 50.71 79.93

    5Punj

    Lloyd25.90 -0.40 -1.52 7.24 0.38 3.58 68.16

    6 BEML 205.60 -2.55 -1.23 18.34 6.28 11.21 32.74

    7 Thermax 682.00 5.75 0.85 26.62 22.02 25.62 30.97

    8Titagarh

    Wagons93.90 -1.50 -1.57 6.71 3.33 13.99 28.20

    9 TexmacoRail 39.40 -0.10 -0.25 2.13 1.61 18.50 24.47

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    SrCompan

    y

    Last

    PriceChange % Chg CEPS * EPS * P/C P/E

    1Maruti

    Suzuki1,682.00 -1.40 -0.08 168.29 106.68 9.99 15.77

    2 M&M 942.85 -0.05 -0.01 72.44 60.90 13.02 15.48

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