Uninsured eligibles ESTIMATES OF INDIVIDUALS ELIGIBLE FOR QHP OR MEDICAID WHO REMAIN UNINSURED BY...
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uninsured eligibles ESTIMATES OF INDIVIDUALS ELIGIBLE FOR QHP OR MEDICAID WHO REMAIN UNINSURED BY ZCTA 2013 AND 2015 JOE CAMPO, SENIOR FORECAST ANALYST HEALTH CARE RESEARCH CENTER OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT JUNE 19, 2015
Uninsured eligibles ESTIMATES OF INDIVIDUALS ELIGIBLE FOR QHP OR MEDICAID WHO REMAIN UNINSURED BY ZCTA 2013 AND 2015 JOE CAMPO, SENIOR FORECAST ANALYST
uninsured eligibles ESTIMATES OF INDIVIDUALS ELIGIBLE FOR QHP
OR MEDICAID WHO REMAIN UNINSURED BY ZCTA 2013 AND 2015 JOE CAMPO,
SENIOR FORECAST ANALYST HEALTH CARE RESEARCH CENTER OFFICE OF
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT JUNE 19, 2015
Slide 2
acknowledgements Wei Yen, Ph.D. Thea Mounts, M.S. Eli Kern,
M.P.H., R.N. Public Health/Seattle-King County Health Care Research
Center, OFM
Slide 3
overview begin at the end (what we found) discuss background
and methods (how we found what we found) focus on hot spots Health
Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 4
QHP eligible uninsured 2013 Less than 100 100 - 499 500 - 999
1,000 or more Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 5
QHP eligible uninsured 2015* Less than 100 100 - 499 500 - 999
1,000 or more *Estimates for 2015 are preliminary and do not
account for net changes in employer-sponsored coverage and other
private insurance coverage outside the Exchange. Health Care
Research Center, OFM
Slide 6
Medicaid eligible uninsured 2013 Less than 100 100 - 499 500 -
999 1,000 or more Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 7
Medicaid eligible uninsured 2015* Less than 100 100 - 499 500 -
999 1,000 or more *Estimates for 2015 are preliminary and do not
account for net changes in employer-sponsored coverage and other
private insurance coverage outside the Exchange. Health Care
Research Center, OFM
Slide 8
background county estimates The County Population Estimation
Model, developed under contract with Krupski and Associates in
2009, forecasted poverty and insurance rate utilizing: American
Community Survey data from the US Census Bureau OFM
age/sex/race/ethnicity population forecasts In 2014 a modified
County Population Estimation Model added in: Medicaid enrollee
counts from Health Care Authority Qualified Health Plans enrollee
counts from Health Benefits Exchange State and national insurance
rates from Gallup, Commonwealth Fund, and Kaiser Family Foundation
Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 9
background ZCTAs ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) There are no
official ZIP code boundaries (!) ZCTAs are based upon the ZIP code
reported by the majority of households within a Census Block ZCTAs
generally correspond with various proprietary ZIP code boundary
maps (because those maps are often based on ZCTAs) ZCTAs include
census measures such as income level and insurance status Health
Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 10
background ZCTAs ZCTAs within each county were identified If
parts of a ZCTA were within two counties, the ZCTA was put in the
county with the largest proportion of the ZCTAs population. Of the
592 ZCTAs all but 64 where wholly contained in one county Of those
64, none constituted more than six percent of the population of the
secondary county that they were not assigned to. Health Care
Research Center, OFM
Slide 11
methods ZCTA estimates For 2013: Using the 2009-2013 US Census
Bureau estimate of uninsured by ZCTA, age group and income status,
we computed the percent each age and income category represented of
the total county estimate. Using those percentages, we allocated
the 2013 estimate of uninsured from the Modified County Population
Estimation Model Those whose income was 137% or less of the federal
poverty level (FPL) were considered to be Medicaid eligible; those
whose income was between 138% and 399% FPL, QHP eligible Health
Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 12
2009-2013 estimate NOTE: These estimates of uninsured include
non-citizens
Slide 13
methods ZCTA estimates For 2014: We assumed that the change in
insurance status only occurred among those ages 18 to 64. The
percentages of uninsured by age group and income status from the
2009-2013 US Census estimate of uninsured were recomputed based
only on those ages 18 to 64. These percentages were then used to
allocate the 2014 estimate of uninsured from the Modified County
Population Estimation Model proportionately among each of the 18 to
64 year old age- and income- groups within each ZCTA within each
county Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 14
methods ZCTA estimates For 2015: There are no control totals
from the Modified County Population Estimation Model (updated
national survey data not yet available), so For Medicaid, we
subtracted the number of Medicaid enrollees in July 2014 from those
enrolled in February 2015 (the most current data available) and
assumed that 40% of those new enrollees were previously uninsured
For QHP, we subtracted the number of QHP enrollees in October 2014
from those enrolled in March 2015, and assumed 35.9% of those new
enrollees were previously uninsured We then subtracted these
estimates of new enrollees who were previously uninsured from our
2014 estimates of uninsured eligibles for the Medicaid and QHP
programs. The remainder are the estimate of uninsured eligibles for
2015 Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 15
Slide 16
hot spots Kittitas Yakima Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 17
hot spots QHP uninsured eligibles 2013 Health Care Research
Center, OFM
Slide 18
hot spots QHP uninsured eligibles 2015 ZCTA 98926 2013
eligibles: ~2500 2015 eligibles: ~1500 ZCTA 98902 2013 eligibles:
~3800 2015 eligibles: ~1700 Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 19
hot spots Kittitas Yakima Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 20
hot spots Medicaid uninsured eligibles 2013 Health Care
Research Center, OFM
Slide 21
hot spots Medicaid uninsured eligibles 2015 ZCTA 98926 2013
eligibles: ~3000 2015 eligibles: ~1600 ZCTA 98902 2013 eligibles:
~4300 2015 eligibles: ~1600 ZCTA 98901 2013 eligibles: ~3100 2015
eligibles: ~1100 Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 22
hot spots Whatcom Snohomish Skagit Island San Juan Health Care
Research Center, OFM
Slide 23
hot spots Medicaid uninsured eligibles 2015 ZCTA 98225 ~1500
ZCTAs 98201, 98203, 98204 ~3800 Health Care Research Center,
OFM
Slide 24
hot spots QHP uninsured eligibles 2015 ZCTAs 98225 & 98226
~2200 ZCTAs 98223 & 98270 ~2800 ZCTAs 98201, 98203, 98204,
98208, 98087, 98012, 98037, 98036 ~12,000 Health Care Research
Center, OFM
Slide 25
hot spots Benton Franklin Walla Health Care Research Center,
OFM
Slide 26
hot spots Medicaid uninsured eligibles 2015 ZCTA 99301 ~1400
ZCTA 99336 ~1400 ZCTA 99362 ~1200 Health Care Research Center,
OFM
Slide 27
hot spots QHP uninsured eligibles 2015 ZCTA 99362 ~1000 ZCTA
98944 ~1000 ZCTA 99337 ~1300 ZCTA 99301 ~2200 ZCTA 99336 ~2500
Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 28
hot spots Spokane Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 29
hot spots Medicaid uninsured eligibles 2015 ZCTA 99207 ~1000
Health Care Research Center, OFM
Slide 30
hot spots QHP uninsured eligibles 2015 ZCTAs 99206 & 99216
~2400 ZCTAs 99205, 99207 & 99208 ~4300 Health Care Research
Center, OFM
Slide 31
Medicaid eligible uninsured 2015* Less than 100 100 - 499 500 -
999 1,000 or more *Estimates for 2015 are preliminary and do not
account for net changes in employer-sponsored coverage and other
private insurance coverage outside the Exchange. Health Care
Research Center, OFM ZCTA 98584 ~1100 ZCTA 98632 ~1300 ZCTA 99163
~2300
Slide 32
QHP eligible uninsured 2015* Less than 100 100 - 499 500 - 999
1,000 or more *Estimates for 2015 are preliminary and do not
account for net changes in employer-sponsored coverage and other
private insurance coverage outside the Exchange. Health Care
Research Center, OFM ZCTA 98382 ~1000 ZCTA 98584 ~1400 ZCTA 98632
~1500 ZCTA 98837 ~1100 ZCTAs 98801 & 98802 ~3400 ZCTAs 98501
& 98513 ~2200
Slide 33
questions? Joe Campo, MPH [email protected] 360.725.3862
Health Care Research Center, OFM
