UNESCO Science Report (2015) Towards 2030

Global overview

Luc Soete

Maastricht University

Presentation prepared for the Round Table Discussion on Monitoring STI for SDG, United Nations Headquarters, Conference Room 8, 11 March 2016

Outline

• Global overview and reflections based on the UNESCO Science Report published end of last year.

• Most comprehensive report on Science and Innovation indicators at global level with data from 108 countries, thanks to collaboration between UNESCO Statistical Institute, OECD and Eurostat.

• It is good though that UNESCO is back in the business of indicators. Will be essential in view of the new Sustainable Development Goals and their monitoring.

• Fascinating to see how countries are all pursuing S&I growth strategies: each though from the perspective of their own national science and innovation system.

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1. Convergence – Divergence: the data

• The share of low and middle-income economies in global expenditure on R&D rose from 20.3% to 30.7% over the same period.

• Since 2007, the share of low and middle-income economies among world researchers has increased by 5 percentage points to 35.6% in 2013; China is responsible for about half this rise.

• Between 2008 and 2014, the number scientific articles included in the Thomson Reuters’ Web of Science – Science Citation Index grew by 23. Growth was strongest among the upper middle-income economies (94%) and low-income ones (68%).

• The availability of STI data to inform policy-making has improved moderately: 108 countries have recent data on research expenditure (up from 102 in the 2010 edition), thanks in part to new observatories of STI, such as in Africa and some Arab States. Many countries do not yet survey business R&D, however.

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Greater interest in Africa in science and technology

There are three main thrusts for many African ‘vision’ planning documents to 2020 or 2030:

• better governance ;

• more inclusive growth ;

• sustainable development.

Both national and subregional ‘vision’ documents acknowledge the importance of science, technology and innovation for sustainable development.

Many African countries now have STI policies (e.g. 11 out of 15 SADC countries). Several have increased their financial commitment to R&D substantially since 2009, including:

Egypt: 0.43% 0.68% of GDP

Ethiopia: 0.24% 0.61% of GDP

Kenya: 0.36% 0.79% of GDP

Mali: 0.25% 0.66% of GDP

Senegal: 0.37% 0.54% of GDP

Uganda: 0.36% 0.48% of GDP

4 From: Presentation of UNESCO Science Report, Harare, 1 March 2016

R&D positions in the world

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Brazil

Canada

China

France Germany

India

Iran

Japan

Korea, Rep.

Russian Fed.

South Africa

Turkey

UK

USA

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EU

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GERD as a % of GDP

1. (Cont’d) Convergence – Divergence: Researchers

• The number of researchers grew by 21% between 2007 and 2013, to 7.8 million. Few of them work in low-income countries (Figure A – left side).

• Researchers represent 0.11% of the world population, or, roughly 0.2% of its labour force.

• Germany is the only major advanced economy that has maintained its world share of researchers (Figure 1.7).

• The rising world share of middle-income countries is primarily driven by China, despite a major downward revision of researcher statistics in China in 2009. There has also been strong progress in the Republic of Korea.

• The number of researchers per million inhabitants (Figure A, right side) in high-income countries is still 9 times higher than in the upper-middle income countries and 20 times higher than in lower-middle income countries.

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Figure A: Researchers and researcher intensity, 2007 and 2013

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Researchers: Absolute number (‘000s) and world share (%)

Researchers per million inhabitants

69.5%64.4%

22.5%

28.0%6.9%

6.4%

1.2%

1.3%

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Note: Upper middle-income includes China (19.1% of world researchers in 2013) Based on Table 1.3 in the report

Economic diversification in Africa hampered by a skills shortage

Africa needs more scientists, engineers, technicians, agronomists, etc to achieve its development goals Researchers: 91 (FTE) researchers per million inhabitants in sub-Saharan Africa, 495 in North Africa; this is up from

77 in 2007 (sub-Saharan Africa) and 474 in North Africa but still well below the world average of 1 083

8 From: Presentation of UNESCO Science Report, Harare, 1 March 2016

2. A shifting public commitment towards R&D

• A de facto convergence, due to declining government investment in R&D in a number of advanced economies, and strong growth in a few “emerging” ones.

• Government funding for R&D has been weaker (as a % share of GDP) in most G7 countries since the 2008 crisis (Figure 1.1)

• Nearly all countries are striving to increase the share of innovation undertaken by business enterprises, with varying levels of success (Figure 1.2).

• Globally, China and India account for most of the convergence in R&D performed by businesses (Figure 2.1).

• But significant growth in R&D intensity is found in economies at different stages of development: GERD-GDP ratio has reached 0.79% in Kenya in 2010, well above the average of lower middle income economies (0.50%), or, for instance, Latin America (around 0.65% – 0.67%).

• Several middle-income economies are becoming hubs for nanotechnologies – or harbour this ambition –, including Brazil, China, India, Iran and Malaysia.

• Innovation enabled by the technology embedded in acquired machinery or other means (independent from in-house R&D) is increasingly important for many developing countries.

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US public R&D expenditures

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R&D Budget by Agency (Inflation Adjusted), Source AAAS

DOD

NASA

DOE

HHS

NSF

USDA

Interior

DOT

EPA

DOC

DHS

VA

Other

Figure 1.1: GERD financed by government as a share of GDP, 2005–2013 (%)

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Figure 1.2: GERD performed by business enterprises as a share of GDP, 2005–2013 (%)

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Figure 2.1: World shares of business R&D, 2001–

2011 (in PPP$)

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3. Open science and open education: an emerging global research labour market?

• Open science and international knowledge mobility.

• Publications are an area where convergence is most evident, with strong growth rates being observed in middle income economies (Figure B, upper panel).

• Cross-border co-authorship as indicator for international collaboration is on the rise everywhere (Figure B, lower panel).

• Convergence of the other half of human capital leaves much to be desired

• Although women have by and large reached parity in higher education, their share falls as one moves from education to research and plummets as one approaches the commanding heights of STI governance (Figures 3.1 & 3.2).

• There appears to be a convergence of minds, in the acceptance that fostering science, technology and innovation is an issue relevant at all stages of development.

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Figure B: Strong growth in scientific production and cross-border cooperation

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Growth rate of scientific publications between 2008 and 2014

Publications with international co-authors, 2008 and 2014 (%)

11.8

94.4

46.467.5

109.6

51.0

50.030.0

14.0

250.6

150.9127.6

103.2

65.950.3 44.3

31.811.1 6.1 -4.1

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Not much convergence on gender parity

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Figure 3.1: Regional shares of female researchers, 2013 (%)

Figure 3.2: The leaky pipeline: share of women in higher education and research, 2013 (%)

Although women have by and large reached parity in higher education, their share falls as one moves from education to research and plummets as one approaches the commanding heights of STI governance

Yet, three out of 10 sub-Saharan researchers is a woman Several governments are putting policies in place to augment the number of women researchers (e.g. Ethiopia)

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Share of women researchers in Africa,

2013 or closest year (%)

(Europe and the Middle East

are shown for comparison)

From: Presentation of UNESCO Science Report, Harare, 1 March 2016

3. Open science and open education: an emerging global research labour market? (Cont’d)

• Open science and international mobility.

• Growing competition among scientists to secure best jobs; growing competition among institutions and governments to retain and attract talent.

• Internet has facilitated international scientific collaboration and online university courses (MOOCs).

• The number of international students rose by 46% between 2005 and 2013: from 2.8 million to 4.1 million.

• International mobility is higher at the doctoral level than at lower tertiary levels in science (29% of all mobile doctoral students were enrolled in science or engineering degrees, compared to 13% of other tertiary students).

• Increasing pressures in emerging countries to maintain and update research infrastructure: growing need to share use of such infrastructure.

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4. “Good” governance is good for science: public vs private science

• At aggregate level it is possible to detect some link between good governance and scientific productivity

• In Figure 4.1, the “rule of law” index on horizontal axis (Range:-2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong)) is linked to the “Quality of Scientific Institutions” (Range: 1 (weak) to 7 (strong)) and to publications per million population.

• Scientific output has increased significantly across the world

• Countries and group of countries show some remarkable differences in science specialisation, pointing again to the importance of national science specialisation (Figures 4.2, 4.3, 4.4).

• Patenting remains dominated by a minority of countries

• Taken together, the European Union, China, Japan, Republic of Korea and USA hold nine out of ten triadic patents in the world (leave it to contributions at this conference to elaborate much more on this).

• Countries vary though considerably in the relative emphasis they place on publishing (diffusion of knowledge) vs patenting (appropriation of knowledge) Figure 4.5

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Figure 4.1 Good governance and scientific productivity go hand in hand

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Figure 4.2 Trends in scientific specialization, 2008–2014: High-Income Countries

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United States of America United Kingdom Germany Japan France Canada

Figure 4.3 (Cont’d) Major emerging countries

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China Russian Federation Brazil India South Africa Korea, Rep.

Figure 4.4. (Cont’d) Other selected countries

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Turkey Malaysia Mexico Arab States Sub-saharan Africa (-South Africa). Latin America (-Brazil)

4. “Good” governance is good for science: public vs. private science (Cont’d)

• Science powers commerce – but not only: commerce and government power modern science together.

• With public budgets under pressure in advanced economies especially since the 2008 financial crisis, there is a temptation to divert public research budgets towards the commercialization end of the innovation cycle. However, the enterprise sector itself needs

• But it is the combination of high public investment in R&D and availability of adequate human resources for S&T that underpins high business investment in research (Figures 4..6a and 4.6b).

• Countries that combine a government investment and a high rate of availability in S&T human resources invariably achieve a high level of business investment in R&D

• Yet, a “resource curse” appears to stop the wealthiest countries from making the most out of science and innovation

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Figure 4.6a Links between public and private research investment

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Finland

Denmark Israel

Singapore

Korea, Rep. of

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Luxembourg

Sweden Japan

Canada Portugal Austria

UK Germany Slovenia

USA

France

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Estonia Ireland

Russian Fed.

Spain Czech Republic Slovakia

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Hungary Latvia

Italy Poland

Croatia Malta

Bulgaria Malaysia Ukraine Costa Rica Argentina

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Brazil Kazakhstan

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GERD funded from non-business sources as a percentage of GDP, average of 2010-11

Figure 4.6b: Mutually reinforcing effect of strong government investment in R&D and researchers, 2010–2011

The size of the bubbles is proportionate to GERD funded by business as a share of GDP (%)

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Finland

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5. Science for today’s vs tomorrow’s needs

• Few countries have increased their focus on basic research substantially

• Despite phenomenal growth in total R&D, China’s spending on basic research remains low, at 4.7% of total research expenditure in 2013.

• The US government traditionally supports basic research but current budgetary pressures risk reducing the country’s long-term capacity to generate knowledge.

• And yet some countries are making a big effort to support basic research

• The European Research Council (est. 2007), the first pan-European funding body for frontier research in basic sciences, has been endowed with € 13.1 billion for the period 2014–2020, equivalent to 17% of Horizon 2020’s overall budget.

• The Republic of Korea increased the share of its research expenditure going to basic research from 13% in 2001 to 18% in 2011. Malaysia has followed a similar path (from 11% in 2006 to 17% in 2011).

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Five Key Messages

1. A South-North “convergence” in science, technology and innovation continues ... but remains very uneven.

2. Declining public commitment to science in high-income countries ... Growing belief in science in emerging and lower income countries... Innovation occurring across the full spectrum of income levels.

3. Trend towards open science, open innovation and open education... Emergence of a global labour market for researchers.

4. Good governance is good for science... Debates on the role of public vs. private science... Increasing focus on science for productivity and a growing role for business-driven science.

5. Towards 2030: science for today’s vs tomorrow’s needs. How to achieve the new Sustainable Development Goals (Agenda 2030)?

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