Understanding Recent Election results in Venezuela

UNDERSTANDING RECENT ELECTION RESULTS IN VENEZUELAFRANCISCO J. MONALDIHARVARD UNIVERSITY | IESA

Wilson Center, January 2014

THE CONTEXTA DYING PRESIDENT, A BOOM, AND AN ECONOMIC CRISIS

THE LARGEST WINDFALL IN HISTORY

Source: IMFVenezuela Argentina Bolivia Brasil Chile Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Perú

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

304%

90%

190%

17%

185%

48%

117%

95%85%

Resource windfalls in 2003-2012 (% GDP)

IN 2012 GROWTH INCREASED AND INFLATION FELL, IN 2013 THE TENDENCIES REVERSED

An electoral budget cycle on steroids...

The public sector deficit in the year to the 2012 election at historical high of close to 17% of GDP, with total public expenditures also at a historical high of around 50% of GDP. This when the price of oil is also at a historical peak.

Source: BCV and Barclays

THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONOCTOBER 7TH

Record-high turnout

15,010,584 votes

80.67% voter participation

2012 President

ial Election

Source: CNE (99% of ballots counted)

Hugo Chávez

Total votes 8,136,964

Share of valid votes 55.25%

Capriles Radonski



Victory margin between HCR and HCF10.90

percentage points

Source: CNE (99% ballots counted)

CHÁVEZ EASILY WINS THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Increasingly competitive electionsIt can be seen that elections have become more competitive since 2007. There were four elections between 2007 and 2010 and the opposition attained a majority of the popular vote in two of them, while the vote margin was close in all of them. In contrast, before 2007, the government won all elections with a wide margin.

Fuente: CNE

1998 Pres-idential Election


2004 Re-call Ref-erendum

2004 Regional Elections

2005 Par-liamentary Elections


2007 Constitu-

tional Referen-

dum

2008 Re-gional

Elections

2009 Constitu-

tional Amend-

ment Ref-erendum

2010 Par-liamentary Elections


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Government Opposition

The last five electoral cycles have become much more competitive between the government and the opposition

Fuente: CNE cálculos propios.

Henrique

CaprilesHugo

Chávez

3 minutes (mandated by CNE)

10 minutes (mandated by Ley Resorte)

38 minutes (“cadenas”)

3 minutes (CNE)

MEDIA ACCESS WAS HIGHLY UNEQUALCapriles Radonski had access to three minutes of advertising mandate by Venezuela’s electoral authority (CNE).

As a candidate, Hugo Chavez also had access to those three minutes. However, as President, the Ley Resorte (Venezuela’s law regulating mass media which is enforced by the national government) allows him (the government) 10 minutes of general broadcast per day and 38 minutes of “cadena” per day publicizing government works.

In sum, Capriles’ messages were broadcasted through all national media airwaves for three minutes a day, while Chavez’s messages were broadcasted through all national media for 51 minutes a day.

THE 2013 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONAPRIL 13TH

Very high turnout, although lower than 2012

14,854,477 votes


2013 President

ial Election

Source: CNE (98,9% of ballots counted)

Nicolás Maduro



Capriles Radonski



Victory margin between NM and HCR1.84

percentage points

Source: CNE (98,9% ballots counted)

MADURO NARROWLY WINS THE HIGHLY CONTESTED 2013 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Fuente: CNE

UNFAIR MEDIA COVERAGE OF THE 2013 ELECTIONSTHE MOST SIGNIFICANT ABUSE OF POWER IN THE HISTORY OF VENEZUELAN ELECTIONSSIGNIFICANT INRREGULARITIES ON THE DAY OF THE ELECTIONS

V e n e v i s ió n T e l e v e n G l o b o v i s ió n V T V

52:1

9

54:1

5

60:3

7

841:

45

40:4

8

54:1

8

342:

44

17:1

1

MEDIA COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE 2013 presi-dential CAMPAIGN (NEWS SLOTS, HOURS)

Maduro Capriles

Minu

tos p

or c

andi

dato

The two main channels in the country (Venevisión and Televen) had a balanced coverage of both candidates in the news. While the opposition-leaning channel showed preference for Capriles, only surpassed by the bias showcased by the official state channel for Maduro.

WITH CHAVEZ AS INCUMBENT ELECTIONS WERE NOT COMPETITIVE, BUT HE WON BY LESS THAN THE AVERAGE FOR INCUMBENTS IN THE REGION (27%)

MADURO WAS NOT AN INCUMBENT AND THE ECONOMY DID NOT FARE WELL

Presidenciales 1998 Presidenciales 2000 Presidenciales 2006 Presidenciales 2012 Presidenciales 20130.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

OficialismoOposición

12,1% 19,4%

25,94% 10,82

%1,84%

2013 MUNICIPAL ELECTIONSDECEMBER 16TH 2013

2,792 public office positions were elected:

• 335 mayors.• 2,435 municipal

council members• 686 chosen through

PR• 1,680 chosen by

plurality

Average turnout for local/regional elections

10,798,589 suffrages


2013 Municip

al Election

Source: CNE (98,9% of ballots counted)

Victory margin between Gov and Opp 7.92percentage points

Source: CNE (98,9% ballots counted)

CHAVISMO BEATS THE OPPOSITION BY A MARGIN SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

GovernmentTotal votes 5,265,930

Share of valid votes 48.76%Municipalities 242

OppositionTotal votes 4,410,238

Share of valid votes 40.84%Municipalities 75

Other

Total votes 1,122,421Share of valid votes 10.39%

Municipalities 18

The victory margin rises to 10.62 percentage points if we account for government-and-opposition-affiliated parties in the comparison.

OPPOSITION WON SIX OF THE TEN LARGEST MUNICIPALITIES IN THE COUNTRYState Municipality Government OppositionDistrito Metropolitano

47,22% 51,28%

DTTO CAPITAL LIBERTADOR 54,55% 43,34%ZULIA MARACAIBO 46,64% 51,74%LARA IRIBARREN 46,04% 52,41%CARABOBO VALENCIA 44,28% 54,24%BOLIVAR CARONI 51,21% 43,52%MIRANDA SUCRE 44,51% 52,79%ARAGUA GIRARDOT 51,55% 43,64%MONAGAS MATURIN 37,26% 38,63%ZULIA SAN FRANCISCO 59,48% 39,32%ANZOATEGUI BOLIVAR 52,65% 44,78%

* Ranking designed by N° of voters

THE MUNICIPAL BALANCE OF POWER SHIFTED SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF THE OPPOSITION

Chavismo lost 23 mayorships, passing from 265 mayorships to 242. They managed to maintain the Capital District (Libertador); as well as

some large cities like Maracay, Pto. Ordaz, Barcelona and Pto. La Cruz. The government also held comfortable victory margins in mid-sized cities like San Francisco, Los Teques, La Victoria, Puerto Cabello, San Carlos, Coro and San Felipe.

The opposition obtained 76 mayors (from 54 it previously held). They maintained the Caracas Metropolitan Mayor under their control,

as well as four out of the five municipalities of Caracas. They also gained flagship municipalities like Barinas (capital of

Chávez home state), Valera, Valle de la Pascua and Maturín, all of these traditionally chavista strongholds.

HISTORICAL ELECTORAL RESULTS 2004-2013:

THE OPPOSITION FARED WORSE IN VOTES THAN IN 2008 BUT WON MORE POSITIONS BECAUSE IT RAN UNITED

Regio

nales

2004

Parlam

entar

ias 20

05

Presid

encia

les 20

06

Refer

endo

2007

Regio

nales

2008

Enmien

da Con

stituc

ional 2

009

Parlam

entar

ias 20

10

Presid

encia

les 20

12

Regio

nales

2012

Presid

encia

les 20

13

Municip

ales 2

013

3,47

7,72

1

3,39

8,56

7

7,30

9,08

0

4,37

9,39

2

5,61

1,14

0

6,31

0,48

2

5,42

3,32

4

8,19

1,13

2

4,77

2,32

6

7,58

7,57

9

5,26

5,93

0

2,38

0,39

0

0

4,29

2,46

6

4,50

4,35

4

5,26

7,18

8

5,19

3,83

9

5,85

8,15

9

6,59

1,30

4

3,67

3,85

5

7,36

3,98

0

4,41

0,23

8

Votos Oficialismo Votos Oposición

Field dates: Nov 12-26 (post Daka’s organized looting). Polling firm: Datanalisis.

2013 WAS A YEAR OF MOSTLY NEGATIVE VIEWS ON THE COUNTRY’S SITUATION WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY TOWARDS THE END

DAKA effect

THE DAKA EFFECT:ORGANIZED LOOTING?

Econ

omic

sit

uati

on is

ba

d

Annualized Inflation surpasses 55% and Scarcity is around 20% of basic-need products

Chav

ism

o m

anag

es t

o bl

ame

the

reta

ilers

President Maduro announces that retailers should reduce prices by more tan 60% and calls for the people to “re-claim” these products

Cont

rolle

d lo

otin

g be

gins

The public goes first to Daka, and later to other retailers demanding the discounts

Blow

to

priv

ate

sect

or

in t

he c

ount

ry

Retailers are left without stock and ask their suppliers to redirect container to other ports

Unc

lear

per

cept

ion

of

loot

ing

epis

ode

In the aftermath of the looting, society was polarized by those appalled by the events and those renergized by the sense of “justice” and “decisiveness” of their leader.

DAKA


Chavismo candidates experienced a boost the month of Daka’s “looting”

DAKA


Government evaluation became a good proxy for the Municipal Election Results

FINAL COMMENTS In October 2012 Chavez won by a smaller margin than he should

have. In April 2014 Maduro barely won (if he did). The economy and

the fact that he was not the incumbent led him to lose 9 pp of the margin, despite all the blatant abuse of power and electoral irregularities.

The municipal elections of December 2013 were a significant victory for Maduro, given the terrible economic situation.

The opposition did significantly better than in 2008 largely as a result of running unified.

Next elections: at the end of 2015 for all seats in the National Assembly

Documents

Understanding Recent Election results in Venezuela