Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center November 25, 2011 Integrated Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis for Water Security 24 February

Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center November 25, 2011 Integrated Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis for Water Security 24 February 2012 ME Red Team Meeting Briefer: Distribution Statement: FOUO 1

Challenge Statement Water Security Problem Statement: We cant anticipate well the social consequences of hydrologic events or trends. We dont make optimal decisions regarding water resources investment or in logistics for disaster relief from hydrologic events. Challenges: Predict social and hydrological vulnerability Existing land use and economic models are built primarily on Western data and decision-making processes and are insufficient for forecasting or understanding futures in other contexts. Objectives: Near term (FY17): Water security and its socio- cultural effects are included in theater campaign plans produced by combatant commands. Army infrastructure investment plans Challenge Boundary Conditions: Who: COCOM planners and engineers What: Phase 0 theater campaign plans and infrastructure investment decisions must include water vulnerability How: Develop integrated Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural (HydroSC) analyses; work with Army/COCOM stakeholders to deliver usable tools. FOUO 2

Water Security Composite decision support tool Social Consequences and Perception Economic Analysis Engineering Design High-Fidelity Hydrologic Prediction Assessment Tools primarily pre-conflict analysis of water and social vulnerability FOUO 3 Decision Support Tools primarily in- and post-conflict support for water resources infrastructure decisions

FOUO 4 Water Security Baseline DoD spends billions of dollars on capacity building both during and after conflict. These investment decisions must be made in a way that is culturally aware. Changes to water resources infrastructure can cause social instability Drought may cause collapse of agriculture and water supply systems Flooding causes social unrest and potential mass migration The US Army provides disaster relief and must make plans for staging and logistics

Concept/Vision FOUO Water Security Adapting Socio- Cultural Models Extending Hydrologic Models Model Coupling and Application Decision Support Adapt and Incorporate Multi-Resolution, Locally-Relevant Definitions Antecedent Conditions Coping Responses ability to manage within expected levels/variability of stress Preparedness Absorptive Capacity ability to return to normal conditions after a perturbation Adaptive Resilience ability to transform to a new configuration to address changing conditions Advanced Hydrologic simulation in Unguaged Basins LIS-based capability for basin-scale hydrological analysis using distributed parameter hydrological models Multi-fidelity, continuum- mechanics based models with model reduction Model initialization and parameterization from remotely sensed-data Integrated HydroSC analysis One-way coupling: Hydrologic events driving socio-cultural response Modified infrastructure Dynamic Maps of Social Instability 5 21 December 2011 Flood Risk Social Vulnerability Index

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center A Phased Approach (SLIDES 6-17 dont fit into the template) Phase I: Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural (Hydro-SC) Vulnerability Analysis Flooding Transboundary water resources infrastructure Phase II: Hydro-SC Analysis for Infrastructure Investment Flood control Water supply

Phase I: Proposed Improvements to Socio-Cultural Analysis Existing: Environmental Indicators and Warnings Socio- Cultural Inputs Chronic water stress Freshwater Security Anomalies Population Industry Infant Mortality Political Factors Cutter et al. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change; 18; 2008. Proposed: Adapt and Incorporate Multi- Resolution, Locally-Relevant Definitions Antecedent Conditions Coping Responses ability to manage within expected levels/variability of stress Preparedness Absorptive Capacity ability to return to normal conditions after a perturbation Adaptive Resilience ability to transform to a new configuration to address changing conditions

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Phase Ia: Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural (Hydro-SC) Analysis of Flooding Predicting floods and their human consequences can alert the Army to deploy support for disaster relief, prepare for mass migration or social unrest, and help identify vulnerabilities Time scale: days to months or years Spatial scale: 1 -1000 km Hydrologic processes: Riverine and overland flow, historical and hypothetical meteorology Socio-cultural features: flood vulnerability, adaptive resilience Pakistan Haiti

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Phase Ia: Hydrologic and Socio-cultural Analyses of Flooding Tasks: Identify demonstration region in AFRICOM and available data Prepare and model national and sub-national vulnerability and resilience with respect to the stakeholder concerns. Extend hydrologic tools (LIS, GSSHA, ADH) for basin-scale inundation simulation and improved leveraging of remotely sensed data Evaluate one-way coupled socio-cultural model for gauged basin Perform analysis for AFRICOM demonstration site Products: Dynamic flood prediction mapping at basin and sub-basin scale, including vulnerability and resilience Dynamic mapping capability showing water-induced vulnerability indices both as a database of images and available from a web service Initial analysis of flood response, mass migration potential

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center The Niger River Basin Phase Ib: Hydro-SC Analyses for Cross-border Water Resources Changes in use or availability of cross- border water resources can create instability. Examples include dam construction and changes to irrigation infrastructure. Optimize resource allocation. Time scale: months to years Spatial scale: 1 -1000 km Hydrologic processes: Riverine and overland flow, soil moisture and groundwater flow, historical and scenario-based meteorology Socio-cultural processes: Population change, geopolitical, economic development & agriculture, displacement, educational attainment, trade impacts.

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Phase Ib: Hydro-SC Analysis for Cross-Border Water Resources Tasks: Identify a trans-national river basin in AFRICOM for demonstration and identify available hydrological, sociocultural, and economic data, and potential changes to hydraulic infrastructure Apply sociocultural models (e.g., population forecasting, migration, land-use evolution, political, economic) for hydrological scenario-driven analysis (using remotely available data) Extend hydrological tools for simulation of basin-to-local scale hydrology (remotely sensed data and additional processes) Perform situated evaluation and analysis for AFRICOM site Products: Dynamic, web-portal mapping capability for: Hydrological prediction at basin and sub-basin scale Water-induced vulnerability indices at fidelity of a village, or small municipality

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Water resources in Afghanistan and Iraq Phase II: Hydro-SC Analyses for Infrastructure Investment The Army spends billions of dollars on capacity building and infrastructure improvements through both direct contracts and the Commanders Emergency Response Program (CERP). Many of these projects are water resources projects. Army engineers and planners must consider potentially destabilizing effects of local changes in water infrastructure and must weigh social and cultural factors in choosing alternative designs Time scale: months to years Spatial scale: 0.1 -100 km Hydrologic processes: Riverine/canal and overland flow, soil moisture, groundwater, current meteorology Socio-cultural features: Village-scale social and cultural processes, local economic development & agriculture.

Commanders Emergency Response Program (CERP) Projects may include: Agriculture/Irrigation projects to increase agricultural production or cooperative agricultural programs, including irrigation systems Reforestation (fruit and nut) producing trees, timber production, and general reforestation Wind breaks for fields Pesticide control for crops Animal husbandry practices Veterinary clinics, supplies, and care for animals Seeds for planting Purchase of initial, parent livestock for herds Animal health Animal production Aquaculture Fish farms Conservation programs Biotechnology Purchase of farm equipment or implements Irrigation wells Irrigation ditches Canal cleanup Water pumps Siphon tubes Terracing development and construction Sprinkler irrigation Dust suppression Central pivot Sub-irrigation Aquifer development Agricultural training facilities and demonstration farms November 25, 201113 As of last April, the US Army had spent $2.64B in Afghanistan and $3.98B in Iraq

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Phase II: Hydro-SC for Infrastructure Investment Large flows of aid will affect social stability, power relationships, social and cultural norms. Immediate relief efforts may undermine long-term development goals. It is crucial to recognize the trade-offs and dynamics between goals of humanitarian assistance, stabilization, and economic development. Consistent assessments of local conditions should be done to remain aware of changing conditions and minimize the possibility of being blindsided by unintended consequences. [Gregory Johnson, Vijaya Ramachandran, and Julie Walz. 2011. The Commanders Emergency Response Program in Afghanistan: Refining U.S. Military Capabilities in Stability and In-Conflict Development Activities.] Water resources projects may be regarded as positive for development, but as destabilizing (especially if implemented without consideration of social and cultural context and consequences) 14

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Phase II: Hydro-SC Analysis for Infrastructure Investment Tasks: Develop decadal meteorological scenarios for selected location Bi-directional coupling (feedback from SC to Hydro) Perform scenario evaluation and analysis for AFRICOM site Products: Decision support toolbox with hydro-sc modeling and analysis at the basin scale Water resources + socio-cultural input to alternatives comparison Available on reimbursable basis or through reachback

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Target Customer Phase Ia: Flooding analyses J2, J5 CoCOMs for prioritized contingency planning / planning disaster relief, AGC/UROC reachback Phase Ib: J2 multi-country plans to combat counter-terrorism, Nile River Basin Authority, Sudan Phase II: COCOM and deployed engineers and planners

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security Baseline 17

Purpose: Improve capability to understand and forecast risks to national security as a result of hydrologically-related events. Anticipate social consequences that may increase conflict or provide room to maneuver for extremist organizations Leverage USACEs hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners. Products: Next generation hydrology models that can: Identify inundated areas in days. Execute over large domains with locally tailored physics and resolution. Next generation socio-cultural models that can:. Incorporate non-U.S. social dynamics and processes. Integrate diverse, non-standard demographic data. Provide locally relevant predictions of vulnerability and resilience Coupled hydrology & social-cultural models that can: Identify groups significantly impacted by hydrological scenarios. Identify hydrological consequences of social and cultural change. Explore complex, adaptive interactions between water and society. Payoff: Quicker response, more complete representation for disaster relief. Ability to forecast changes in water supply / demand that allows the Army, COCOMs and intelligence agencies to include these factors in security policies and strategies. Improved ability to prioritize detailed analyses and contingency planning for water-security crises and resource allocation, based on social and cultural impacts. Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analyses for Water Security Schedule & Cost MILESTONESFY12FY13FY14FY15 Hydro-SC of flooding Hydro-SC of cross-border water resources Hydro-SC for drought and climate scenarios AT400.52.53.03.5 2 5 3 5 Status: New 3 5 Total: $9.5M Unclassified / FOUO

What are you trying to do? How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practices? M&S for Dismounted Operations

What's new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful? Who cares? M&S for Dismounted Operations

If you're successful, what difference will it make? This opportunity will tie to ongoing work in sensor fusion. An enabling capability for detecting the mobility environment during dismounted operations is unsupervised perception. For new sensing technologies to impact dismounted operations without increasing the soldiers cognitive burden (Big Problem 2), sensors used to support dismounted operations must present data to the end user at a highly abstracted level commensurate with human perception. Sensor fusion is therefore a critical component for this effort. This opportunity will also impact future ERDC efforts in mobility by enhancing ERDCs tactical mobility modeling capabilities from 2D wheeled and tracked to 3D wheeled, tracked, biped, and quadruped platforms. M&S for Dismounted Operations

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center What are the risks and payoffs? Risks The primary risk for the proposed program is that sensor models and dynamics in the CTB will not be flexible enough to evaluate emerging technologies like exoskeleton platforms or novel sensor types. The best solution to this potential risk is to adopt a high-fidelity, physics-based modeling approach for platform dynamics and sensor physics. This approach, while computationally demanding, is more flexible for generic platforms and environments. A secondary risk is that M&S tools developed for this program will be impractical for use outside HPC environment. To overcome this solution, the program should focus on HPC for high-fidelity simulations, TTP development, and acquisition support but focus on efficiency and interface with mobility and perception algorithms. Payoffs M&S for Dismounted Operations

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Success and Transition What are the midterm and final "exams" to check for success? Midterm Final What is the proposed transition strategy? PEO/PM Requirement(s) 23

FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17 FundingFY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17 6.2 Tech Base8669134411033611713112804000 6.2 Deployable Force Protection135001200080004000 6.3 Tech Base3239023805 6.3 Deployable Force Protection280002050015925131291304613212 Force Protection Basing TeCD25992343012355410608 Overall Milestone Chart Major Demonstration Capstone Demonstration Significant Milestone Force Protection Basing TeCD Trade- space analysis Overall Basing Architecture Planning Tools Perimeter Security and Surveillance Entry Control Point (protection, overwatch, surveillance) Critical Asset Protection (TOC, mortar pit, ASP, sleep area, fuel, food, water) Baseline Demonstration Integration Demonstration Capstone Demonstration Spiral 2 Demonstration Baseline evaluation of manpower, construction time, power, fuel, logistics, equipment requirements for FP tech Decision support tools COP Construction Handbook Demonstrate integration strategy for FP technologies Determine optimized COP construction with sensing and active defense capability Evaluate planning tools Force Protection Basing TeCD Demonstrations and Evaluations Demonstrate COP construction to meet TeCD objectives Demonstrate life cycle planning tool Demonstrate COP construction and force protection in operational environment Demonstrate life cycle planning tool revisions from Capstone demo Joint DFP/TeCD Demonstration Address DFP and TeCD objectives in operational environment Force Protection - Basing 1a 24 FOUO 21 December 2011

FY11FY12FY13FY14 FY 15 3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q 1 ECP Control 2 Active Defense 3 Surveillance 4 Cover & Reinforcement 5 Threat Assessment 6 Integrated Sensor Architecture 7 Communications Legend: Planned Start Planned End Planned Milestone Planned Significant Milestone Schedule SlipActual Start Actual End Actual Milestone Actual Significant Milestone Low logistics ECP & guard tower VBIED blast protect Multimodal GSD quickly/accurately detect POO, location accuracy improvement Design/int of OA & SD on single gimbal, SWAP Reduction with CERBERUS, NLOS linear sensor, OPEVAL to NVRSTA Low logistics structures for exterior shielding/bracing, snap together frameworks, concealment-deception, blast resistance Mobile threat assessment, mobile-handheld prototype Baseline DFP architecture, fully interoperable SoS conforms to Army COE Enable video & flash LIDAR communications with first mile TR1 Demo E1 Demo 46 5 34 5 TR2 Demo 5 5 7 E2 Demo 5 TR3 Demo TR4 Demo 6 7 5 Decision Eval 7 6 7 Trans. to PM NVRSTA Detailed Milestone Schedule UNCLASSIFIED 8

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Team 26 21 December 2011 POCOrganizationRole

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center The Team Hydrologic Modeling and Analysis Dr. Mark Jourdan, CHL, product scope and design Dr. Matthew Farthing, CHL, multi-scale modeling, knowledge extraction Dr. Stacy Howington, CHL, surface/groundwater analysis, model interfaces Mr. John Eylander, CRREL, weather/climate scenarios Socio-Cultural Modeling and Analysis Dr. Lucy Whalley, CERL, socio-cultural anthropological analysis Mr. Tim Perkins, CERL, socio-cultural dynamics modeling Integration and Tool Interfaces Mr. Dave Richards, ITL, data-to-information, product delivery Others TBD (decision support, risk analysis, reduced-order modeling)

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Backup 28

FOUO Flooding causes social unrest and potential mass migration Drought may cause collapse of agriculture and water supply systems The US Army provides disaster relief and must make plans for staging and logistics Changes to water resources infrastructure can cause social instability Existing: Environmental Indicators and Warnings Socio-Cultural Inputs Chronic water stress Freshwater Security Anomalies Population Industry Infant Mortality Political Factors Anticipation/Pre-conflicts Action/In- Post-conflict CERP DoD spends billions of dollars on capacity building both during and after conflict. These investment decisions must be made in a way that is culturally aware. 29 Water Security Baseline

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security 30 Purpose Improve capability to understand and forecast risks to national security as a result of hydrologically-related events. Anticipate social consequences that may increase conflict or provide room to maneuver for extremist organizations. Leverage USACEs hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners. Results/Products Funding TargetsPayoff/Transition Quicker response, more complete representation for disaster relief. Ability to forecast changes in water supply / demand that allows the Army, COCOMs and intelligence agencies to include these factors in security policies and strategies. Improved ability to prioritize detailed analyses and contingency planning for water-security crises, based on social and cultural impacts. Funding Type FY12 ($K) FY13 ($K) FY14 ($K) FY15 ($K) 6.20.53.54.0 6.30.0 Total0.53.54.0 Next generation hydrology models that can: Identify inundated areas in days. Execute over very large domains. Next generation land use and macro-economic models that can: Forecast plausible futures at sub-national levels in OCONUS. Incorporate non-U.S. development and planning processes. Integrate diverse, non-standard demographic data. Coupled hydrology & social-cultural models that can: Identify groups significantly impacted by hydrologic scenarios. Identify hydrologic consequences of social and cultural change. Explore complex, adaptive interactions between water and society.

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Baseline From ASA(ALT) Big Army Problems page ( https://www.alt.army.mil/portal/page/portal/oasaalt/SAALZT?_piref69_639566_69_639565_639565.tabstring=Problems%20and%20Challenges ) https://www.alt.army.mil/portal/page/portal/oasaalt/SAALZT?_piref69_639566_69_639565_639565.tabstring=Problems%20and%20Challenges 2. Soldiers in Small Units (squads/fire teams/crews) are OVERBURDENED (physically and cognitively); this degrades performance and may result in immediate, as well as, long term consequences. 6. Operational MANEUVERABILITY (dismounted & mounted) is difficult to achieve in complex, austere, and harsh terrains and at high OPTEMPO. ERDC opportunity for participation in Overburden (Problem 2) TEC-D (top 5) by offloading soldier load to robotics. Unsupervised robots will reduce the soldiers physical burden without increasing his cognitive burden. Opportunity for ERDC to directly contribute to TEC-D by providing M&S for development of leader-follower capability. Clear transition path for ERDC developed algorithms to system with emerging requirements. Additional opportunity to address Problem 6 by combining ERDC mobility expertise with novel technologies. Opportunity for ERDC to evaluate emerging sensors and platforms in M&S and develop TTP for addressing Problem 6. 31

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Capability Baseline Capability Effort ObjectiveArmy Goal Current Status T: O: T: O: T: O: T: O: Exit Criteria 32 21 December 2011

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Conflict Anticipation Detailed Milestone Schedule 33 TRL or SRL: Milestone Timeline: Activity Timeline: Demo: Experiment: Transition: 3 4

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security Quantitative Metrics MeasureCurrent Effort Objective Army Objective TRL or SRL Hydrologic and OCONUS stimuli in socio-cultural models Only CONUS cultural data and no hydrologic forcings Include hydrologic and local- cultural stimuli for at least 4 regions of interest Understand social response to hydrologic events in the cultural context of AFRICOM, EUCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM 3 Rapid assessment of weather and hydrologic effects Three weeks for inundation modeling 3-4 days or less for the same product Process and exploit relevant data and provide real-time support to commanders situational awareness and understanding 5 Coupling of hydrology and socio-cultural models Not coupled. Any assessment done separately Couple the two capabilities such that either code could be used to drive the other Information synthesis; process, and transform data rapidly into usable knowledge, across a wide range of subjects from military logistics to culture and economics 3 Development and natural disaster impact forecasts Country-level assessment Sub-national (county-level) assessment Integration of water security into Theater Campaign Plans. Improved response for disaster relief 4 Large-scale weather and hydrology One year or more to develop a large- scale capability One month or less to develop a large-scale model Understanding dynamics via remote sensing and predictive modeling 4 34

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center FY12 Leveraged Initiatives MCIA reimbursable work CREATE *Include both internal and external leveraged programs.

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Team 36 NameOrganizationRole GSL, Mobility Systems Branch CTB: Sensor and Platform, TTP evaluation ITL, Computational Analysis Branch Algorithm Development CHL, Field Data Collection BranchCTB: Terrain Attribution CRREL, Terrestrial and Cryospheric Sciences Branch CTB: Weather Impacts, Terrain Attribution *State the need for personnel that is required but not available in ERDCs current work staff and a plan that will address the issue.

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Concept/Vision 37 The goal for this program is to develop an M&S capability for supporting robotics as it pertains to dismounted operations. This would include a computation test bed (CTB) for testing and developing power and mobility algorithms for autonomous navigation, an environment for evaluating TTPs with novel sensors and platforms, and a planning tool for dismounted operations to optimize power, mobility, and sensor effectiveness. Terrain Physics Sensor Physics Geo-Environment Platform Physics Human Dynamics Comp. TestBed Sensor Evaluations Platform Evaluations Robotics TTPs 0000 hrs 1200 hrs Kressler (2006) Mission Planning 6.2 Research Acquisition Support Transition Leader / Follower

S-FOB FOB SPOD *No Institutionalized Basing Training for Small Unit Leaders *High Dependency on LN support increases Threat *Need to increase airdrop Capability to reduce Convoy resupply *Fuel & Water Transported Multiple times Numerous Generators Ad Hoc Waste Removal Inefficient Water Management Sustainability/Logistics Transport, Distribute, and Dispose TeCD Unprotected Ammo Supply Point Limited Entry Control Point Protection Indirect Fires Limited Guard Tower Protection Tactical Operations Center and Shelters No Indirect Fire Protection Inefficient Power FOUO Deployable Force Protection Force Protection Basing TeCD Sustainability/Logistics- Basing TeCD Self-Sustaining Bases Time-Consuming Perimeter Construction COP & PB Ad Hoc Field Latrines 21 December 2011 OV 1 (Current) Contingency Basing Force Protection Basing 1a 38

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center 39 Detailed Milestone Schedule

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center END TEMPLATE 40

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security 41 Future ERDC Impacts How, if possible, could this opportunity potentially impact ERDCs existing programs? Does this program have potential for follow-on work? Leveraged Research AFRICOM Niger River Basin Study. Gambia River Flood Assessment UROC reimbursables CREATE - Cultural Reasoning and Ethnographic Analysis for the Tactical Environment Equipment/FacilitiesTechnical Risks 2. What are the barriers to solving this problem? Existing available demographic and social data (including imagery) varies by country and requires manual processing to integrate and generate compatible datasets. Hydrologic models have not been integrated with social or cultural models for either linear or interdependent forecasting. Land use and macro-economic models require methods to forecast stakeholder decision-making; current models assume U.S. decision-making processes without consideration of social or cultural differences. We are often unable to obtain hydrology results at the necessary resolution in a timely manner. Data required for existing weather & hydrology models exceed what is commonly available. 3. How will you overcome those barriers? Apply cross-cultural water crises and development expertise to develop non-U.S.-based land use and macro-economic models. Create an intelligent automated process to identify flow paths and add appropriate resolution in model preprocessing. Develop large-scale hydrology models linked to AFWA databases with the ability to apply varying levels of fidelity based on the required level of resolution. Develop techniques to couple hydrology, land use and macro-economic models for use in decision, planning and assessment tools.

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center In 2004, a Defense Science Board Report recommended that Stability Operations be recognized as a core mission for the US Military. This recommendation was codified in Department of Defense Directive (DODD) 3000.05 Military Support for Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) Operations, which was published in late 2005. 42

Conflict Anticipation Issues Flooding Infrastructure changes Drought and climate change Product Web-based dynamic maps of hydrologic state and social stress served through AGC/UROC Toolbox for continental-scale to village-scale simulation Customers Intelligence agencies COCOM Phase 0 planners Infrastructure Investment Issues Strategic water resources developments (CERP) Logistics and investments for disaster relief Product Decision support toolbox with hydro-sc modeling and analysis at the basin scale Water resources + socio- cultural input to alternatives comparison Available on reimbursable basis or through reachback Customers COCOM engineers (Evans) 43

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center Joint Doctrine Applies Phasing to Campaign Planning Phase 0 Shape Prevent/Prepare. Joint and multinational operations are performed to dissuade or deter potential adversaries and to assure or solidify relationships with friends and allies. They are designed to assure success by shaping perceptions and influencing the behavior of both adversaries and allies, improving information exchange and intelligence sharing, and providing US forces with peacetime and contingency access. Shape phase activities must adapt to a particular theater environment and may be executed in one theater in order to create effects and/or achieve objectives in another. Current examples of Phase 0: Djibouti, Somalia, Korea During Phase 0, Regional Combatant Commanders use the military element of national power to assess and monitor the area of operations (AO), engage as a partner with Militaries of other nations, and assure capacity is there in case of natural disaster or instability. Due to CENTCOMs operations, there is much pent-up demand for assistance in most other Regional Combatant Commands.

Unclassified/FOUO November 25, 2011 Engineer Research and Development Center West Point Discussions

Documents

Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center November 25, 2011 Integrated Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis for Water Security 24 February