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January 6, 2016
Oil &
Gas
Mala
ysi
a
SEE PAGE 13 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS PP16832/01/2013 (031128)
Malaysia Oil & Gas
Opportunity amid adversity
Adapting to the cycle
The O&G market is on firmer ground now versus a year ago as it adapts
to the low oil price environment through cost rationalization, capital
discipline and cashflow preservation. An absolute recovery is still a
distance away but the overall risk-reward balance has improved. The fall
in share prices has absorbed much of the negatives with valuations
turning attractive, making it fertile ground to bottom fish. The volatility
in the oil market also offers periodic cyclical, alpha play opportunities.
Our preferred BUYs are Yinson, BArmada, KNM and Dialog.
2016: Nursing back from injury
The O&G market has begun to accept the new reality as it overcomes the
shock that engulfed it a year ago. We see pockets of progress but an
absolute recovery remains off the cards. Cost cuts and cash flow
prudence remain core initiatives for 2016 while financial sensibility and
resilience are admirable qualities under current circumstances.
Operationally, DCRs for rigs and OSVs have stabilized but remain low.
Activities, however, are slowly picking up. The O&G sector is a hotbed
for corporate exercises (i.e. M&A actions) as the market consolidates.
Opportune time to bottom pick low hanging fruits
The de-rating of the sector following the fall in share prices has
practically absorbed much of the negatives, capping downside risk. The
volatility in the oil market also offers pockets of opportunities in the
sector, from a valuation/newsflow standpoint. This makes the sector a
fertile ground to periodically stock pick.
Resilience, growth, valuations & Shariah compliance
RAPID, FPSO and renewable energy will make thematic headlines in
2016. Segment-wise, we prefer the FPSO space over rigs, OSVs,
fabricators as it is less sensitive to the fluctuation in oil price and capex
cuts, given the bankable contract exposures, financial resilience, visible
growth prospects and undemanding valuations of such operators. Being
Shariah compliant is a major plus.
Analysts
[Unchanged]NEUTRAL
Liaw Thong Jung
(603) 2297 8688
Ivan Yap
(603) 2297 8612
Stock Bloomberg Mkt cap Rating Price TP Upside
code (USD'm) (LC) (LC) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E
SapuraKencana SAKP MK 2,649 Hold 1.92 2.00 4 13.7 12.2 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0
Dialog Group DLG MK 1,926 Buy 1.61 1.90 18 28.9 26.4 3.5 3.2 1.4 1.5
Bumi Armada BAB MK 1,351 Buy 1.00 1.20 20 7.3 na 0.8 na 0.0 na
Yinson Holdings YNS MK 732 Buy 2.91 4.35 49 16.3 13.7 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.9
UMW Oil & Gas UMWOG MK 533 Hold 1.07 1.25 17 (18.2) na 0.8 na 0.0 na
MMHE MMHE MK 356 Hold 0.97 1.32 37 13.6 na 0.5 na 0.0 na
KNM Group KNMG MK 253 Buy 0.51 0.80 57 6.5 na 0.4 na 0.0 na
Wah Seong WSC MK 168 Sell 0.94 0.60 (36) 15.5 na 0.6 na 0.0 na
Barakah BARAKAH MK 161 Sell 0.85 0.65 (24) 13.1 na 1.5 na 0.0 na
Icon Offshore ICON MK 111 Hold 0.41 0.42 2 11.9 na 0.4 na 0.0 na
Alam Maritim AMRB MK 90 Sell 0.43 0.30 (29) 14.0 na 0.4 na 0.0 na
Perisai Pet. PPT MK 78 Hold 0.28 0.29 4 12.2 na 0.2 na 0.0 na
P/E (x) P/B (x) Div yld (%)
January 6, 2016 2
Malaysia Oil & Gas
Looking back, looking ahead
2015: Embracing reality & getting in shape
2015 marked the start of an ‘oil supply shock’ downcycle. On hindsight, the
global markets had under-estimated shale oil development, notably in the US,
the revival and development of which was a major structural change that had
completely transformed the global crude oil market. This led OPEC to abdicating
its market manager role and thus created price volatility. Nonetheless, shale did
not replace OPEC’s role as a swing producer but instead acted as a ‘price ceiling’
operator.
With the plunge in oil prices, projects dried up, margins fell and confidence
dropped. Capex cuts, cost rationalization and cashflow preservation collectively
shaped the challenging 2015 as the market struggled to adjust to the low oil
price level on a long-term basis. For the service providers, optimizing asset
utilization over profitability was a key priority. The deferment of new asset
acquisitions was prevalent to conserve capital and cashflow.
2016: Nursing back from injury
The O&G sector remains in transition but market has begun to accept the new
reality as it overcomes the shock that engulfed it a year ago. As oil price finds a
new equilibrium, we see pockets of progress but an absolute recovery remains
off the cards. Cost cuts and cash flow prudence are still core initiatives for 2016
while financial sensibility and resilience are admirable qualities under current
circumstances. Protecting cash flow is more important than growth.
In-house, we are looking at an average crude oil price of USD50/bbl (Brent) in
2016 (vs. USD52/bbl in 2015). Crude oil price volatility will persist amid the
uneven growth in global economy and oversupply of crude oil output globally.
Whilst shale oil was a 2015 story, the policies mapped out by OPEC, Iran, PRC and
Russia will be closely monitored for they will shape the outcome of demand-
supply imbalances and oil price movement for 2016.
Operationally, DCRs for OSVs and rigs have stabilized but remain low. On the
bright side, activities are gradually on the rise as more tenders are beginning to
be rolled out, based on new oil/cost parameters. We do not rule out M&A actions
as the market consolidates. The O&G sector is a hotbed for such activities.
Global crude oil prices (USD/bbl) Crude oil Volatility Index
Sources: CEIC, BNM, Maybank KE Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
30
50
70
90
110
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-1
1
May-1
1
Sep-1
1
Jan-1
2
May-1
2
Sep-1
2
Jan-1
3
May-1
3
Sep-1
3
Jan-1
4
May-1
4
Sep-1
4
Jan-1
5
May-1
5
Sep-1
5
Volatility Index (Crude Oil)
Crude Oil (USD/bbl, RHS)
14 per. Mov. Avg. (Volatility Index (Crude Oil))
January 6, 2016 3
Malaysia Oil & Gas
Global crude oil demand vs. supply Net oil surplus/ (deficit)
Source: Maybank KE Source: Maybank KE
FPSOs are our preferred play
RAPID, FPSOs and renewable energy will be the thematic headlines in 2016 in
Malaysia O&G. Segment-wise, we remain positive on the FPSOs over the other
segments (rigs, OSVs, fabrication).
Contracts are still forthcoming and bankable, with a steady pipeline of new jobs.
FPSO utilization is high and stable. The early termination and cancellation of
FPSO contracts is rare unlike that of rigs, OSVs and fabricators, as is margin
compression.
The FPSO market has consolidated well since 2008 and is in a more balanced
state, from a demand/supply perspective. The outlook of each segment is
detailed below:
FPSO: Prospects & Outlook FPSO projects are generally stable, bankable, with long-term contract tenures
and clauses (i.e. termination clauses) favourable to FPSO operators.
Contractually, the FPSO business is relatively akin to the utilities; long tenure
with mid-teens project IRRs.
The FPSO business is also less susceptible to volatility in oil prices and capex
cuts. A FPSO contract will only be awarded once a field project is sanctioned.
There are minimal speculative FPSO builds in the market as the designs are
customized to field specifics. Hence, FPSO utilization is high, historically at
above 90%, unlike the utilization rates of rigs/OSVs that fluctuate according to
capex cycles.
According to Energy Maritime Associates (EMA), up to 10 new FPSO projects are
expected to be awarded in 2016 (vs. 4 FPSOs in 2015) with a cumulative capex of
USD8.4b (ranging from USD100m to USD1.5b).
Region-wise, Latin America (2 in Brazil, 2 in Mexico) leads the pack with 4 FPSO
projects. This is followed by Asia (PRC, Vietnam and Cambodia) with 3 projects,
Africa (2 – Angola, Congo) and Europe (1 - UK).
60% of the leased FPSO-choice projects are NOC-operated fields. 50% of the
required FPSOs are conversions, while 40% are to be newly built. The remaining
10% are for re-deployment.
Yinson, Bumi Armada are targeting relatively similar tenders (Vietnam, Brazil).
Operationally, they have the capacity to take up 1-2 new job wins for 2016.
68707274767880828486889092949698
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
YTD
'15
Demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd)
(45)
(30)
(15)
0
15
30
45
60
75
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
YTD
'15
Global Oil Supply Less Global Oil Demand (mbpd, RHS)
Avg Crude Oil Price (Brent, % Chg, RHS)
January 6, 2016 4
Malaysia Oil & Gas
FPSO: Fleet utilization and idle units
Source: EMA, Maybank KE
Current deployment of global FPSO fleet: 166 units
Source: EMA, Maybank KE
FPSO: Projected awards & capex
Location Project Operator New/ Conv/ redeploy
Est. capex (USD'm)
Angola Cameia Sonangol Conv 900
Brazil Libra Pilot Petrobras New/ conv 1500
Sepia (ex-NE de Tupi) Petrobras New/ conv 1500
Cambodia Apsara Kris Energy Redeploy/ conv 100
PRC Liuhua 16-2 CNOOC New 500
Congo Yombo Perenco Redeploy/ conv 350
Mexico Ayatsil/ Tekel Pemex New 1500
Pemex EWT Pemex Redeploy 300
UK Rosebank Chevron New 1250
Vietnam Ca Rong Do/ Red Emperor Repsol Conv 500
Source: EMA
21 1 1 1
23 3
5 5
34
6 67
1
3
5 5
11
9
11
6
8
1617
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Idle units (LHS) Utilisation rate (RHS)
(FPSO units)
Average utilisation rate: 94%
(%)
LegendNumber of FPSOs
deployed
in the region
Gulf of
Mexico
Australia/
NZ
Brazil
8
2Canada
Northern
Europe
24
Africa
11
Mideast/
SW Asia
Mediterranean
40
25
South East
Asia37
17 Units offhire
3
3
13
China
January 6, 2016 5
Malaysia Oil & Gas
Offshore drilling: Prospects & Outlook
The drilling market remains challenging, cyclical and volatile, with a recovery
expected from 2H16, at its earliest. The utilization level for jack-up (JU) rigs
currently averages 60-70%. Daily charter rates (DCRs) currently hover around the
USD80k-90+k range (down 30-50% YoY).
Further deferment to the delivery of new rigs from 2016 to 2017-18 is expected,
for demand is weak in view of light drilling activities. The scrapping of ageing
rigs (>30 years) is also expected to intensify in 2016.
At current rates, most of the JU operators are cashflow positive but P&L
negative. Optimizing rig utilization remains key for 2016, and this will be at the
expense of DCRs.
It is anticipated that there is a requirement for 4-6 JUs for the drilling programs
in Malaysia in 2016. UMWOG and Perisai will be in line to seize on this
opportunity. 4 units, or 57% of the former’s JUs are inactive/available for charter
while the latter has deferred the delivery of its 2nd JU by 6-9 months to 1Q16.
JUs: Global DCRs – by water depth JUS: Global utilization – by water depth
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
OSV: Prospects & Outlook
DCRs have fallen to the USD1.10-1.25/bhp level (vs. USD1.80-2.20/bhp during the
peak), reflecting current conditions. Most of the OSV players have reacted to this
by: (i) cutting costs (i.e. overheads) while (ii) ramping up operational efficiencies
(i.e. fuel consumption optimization, pro-active laid-up, minimal safe manning),
where possible.
Optimizing utilization remains critical in 2016. Being a member of the Malaysia
Offshore Support Vessels Owners’ Association (MOSVA) is a key positive.
PETRONAS has tightened its tenders vetting criteria and is giving charter
preference to local MOSVA OSV operators (Alam Maritim, Icon Offshore,
Perdana Petroleum) over foreign-flagged/owned OSVs.
Fabrication: Prospects & Outlook
New orders for the offshore fabrication space will continue to disappoint in 2016.
Order backlog will continue to be depleted with weak replenishment. Contract
sizes and margins are shrinking. Bigger yards (MMHE, SAKP) are competing for
smaller jobs to fill up space, a testament to the challenging environment. With
the orders pipeline expected to be limited, we estimate stiff competition for 5
jobs (E6, F12, Bokor, Kasawari, B15) in 2016 with a collective value of MYR2b-3b.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Feb-0
1
Feb-0
2
Feb-0
3
Feb-0
4
Feb-0
5
Feb-0
6
Feb-0
7
Feb-0
8
Feb-0
9
Feb-1
0
Feb-1
1
Feb-1
2
Feb-1
3
Feb-1
4
Feb-1
5
USD/day
<250 WD
250 WD
300 WD
300+ WD
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Feb-0
1
Feb-0
2
Feb-0
3
Feb-0
4
Feb-0
5
Feb-0
6
Feb-0
7
Feb-0
8
Feb-0
9
Feb-1
0
Feb-1
1
Feb-1
2
Feb-1
3
Feb-1
4
Feb-1
5
<250 WD
250 WD
300 WD
300+ WD
January 6, 2016 6
Malaysia Oil & Gas
PETRONAS & RAPID: Prospects & Outlook
PETRONAS remains: (i) cautious on the outlook and (ii) prudent on spending as it
continues to adjust to a prolonged low oil price environment. There will be no
headcount cut for now, atypical in the current market but understandable for a
National Oil Company (NOC).
The oil major continues to proactively seek out avenues to cut costs (e.g.
through the renegotiation of contracts, emphasis on management efficiency) but
not at the expense of safety and operational excellence. It has adopted a cost
reduction alliance (CORAL) 2.0 strategy to inculcate a cost conscious mindset.
Overall, PETRONAS targets to cut capex/opex by 15%-30%.
Financially, PETRONAS is committed to paying a lower MYR16b in dividends in
2016 (-MYR10b YoY) following a negotiation with the Government. The lower
dividend payout for 2016 is sensible, as the fundamental recovery in the sector is
not in sight over the next 12 months.
PETRONAS: Dividends & oil related income to the Malaysia Government
Source: PETRONAS, Maybank KE
Capex-wise, PETRONAS has officially announced that it has set a 5-year (2016-
2020) plan of MYR350b, which takes into consideration the stronger USD/MYR.
The bulk of the capex is focused on the RAPID, Azerbaijan, Canada projects.
PETRONAS: Capex (yearly)
Source: PETRONAS, Maybank KE
11.018.0
24.030.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 26.3 27.0 29.0 26.0
16.0
14.6
20.7
20.5
24.2 27.218.7
27.7 33.9 29.8 27.0
9.5
9.3
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
60.0
75.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Income From Exploration Of Oil & Gas in MTJA Crude Oil Export Duty Petroleum Royalty Petroleum Income Tax (PIT) Dividend
MYR b
11 10 10 12 15
20
28 22
18
31 32
39
9M15: 49.7
4
14
8 10
14
18
11
11
13
14
24
25
4Q15F:13.3
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F
(MYR'b)Malaysia - LHS Overseas - LHS Growth (%) - RHS (%)
January 6, 2016 7
Malaysia Oil & Gas
PETRONAS: Capex (quarterly)
Source: PETRONAS, Maybank KE
Following the awards of the EPCC refinery packages in 2014, we expect the
RAPID’s: (i) EPCC of petrochemical packages and (ii) utilities, interconnecting
and offsite (UIO) contracts to roll out in 2016.
Compilation of RAPID-related contracts announced to-date
Contract type Company Value
EPCC CTCI Corporation, Chiyoda Corporation, Synerlitz (M) S/B & MIE Industrial USD1.3b
EPCC Sinopec Engineering-KNM-Apexx USD1.4b
EPCC Tecnicas Reunidas S.A., Tenicas Reunidas Malaysia S/B NA
EPCC Petrofac International (UAE) LLC, Petrofac E&C S/B NA
EPCC Toyo Enginnering Corp, Toyo Engineering & Construction S/B USD2.3b
Infrastructure construction UEM Builders Bhd, Projek Penyelenggaraan Lebuhraya Bhd NA
Infrastructure construction Zelan Construction S/B MYR248m
Infrastructure construction WCT Bhd MYR342m
Infrastructure construction Syarikat Ismail Ibrahim S/B NA
Infrastructure construction Bumi Dagang S/B NA
Infrastructure construction Gadang Engineering (M) S/B, Menta Construction S/B MYR350m
PCC Barakah (PBJV Group S/B), CPM Construction S/B MYR260m
EPCC Siemens AG, Siemens Malaysia S/B, MMC Engineering Services S/B NA
PMC Technip SA joint venture with Fluor Corporation NA
PCC Asia Baru Construction S/B & Putra Perdana Construction S/B NA
Infrastructure construction Muhibbah Engineering MYR116m
Infrastructure construction Muhibbah Engineering MYR158.2m
EPCC Muhibbah Engineering-VA Tech Wabag Ltd MYR949m
Civil works Bina Puri Holdings MYR95m
PCC KNM Group JV company USD42m/MYR183m
EPCC Mudajaya Group MYR489m
Sub-contract Ho Hup Construction Co MYR21.6m
EPCC Bina Puri Holdings MYR234.12
Equipment supply Technip NA
PCC WCT Holdings MYR267m
Source: Various
11,650
7,549
8,949 8,942
6,0147,166
11,28310,415
9,577
14,399
6,824
8,642
11,73811,244
13,999
10,513
11,757
16,099
18,186
12,892
13,378
16,341
22,037
12,054
11,591
17,862
17,751
4,442
8,168
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000
32,000
Apr-
Jun 0
9
Jul-
Sep 0
9
Oct-
Dec 0
9
Jan-M
ar
10
Apr-
Jun 1
0
Jul-
Sep 1
0
Oct-
Dec 1
0
Jan-M
ar
11
Apr-
Jun 1
1
Jul-
Sep 1
1
Oct-
Dec 1
1
Jan-M
ar
12
Apr-
Jun 1
2
Jul-
Sep 1
2
Oct-
Dec 1
2
Jan-M
ar
13
Apr-
Jun 1
3
Jul-
Sep 1
3
Oct-
Dec 1
3
Jan-M
ar
14
Apr-
Jun 1
4
Jul-
Sep 1
4
Oct-
Dec 1
4
Jan-M
ar
15
Apr-
Jun 1
5
Jul-
Sep 1
5
(MYR m) Acquisition of 15.5% stake in Shah Deniz at USD2.25b
Progess Energy Acquisition
(MYR m)
Acquisition of unconventionalresources
January 6, 2016 8
Malaysia Oil & Gas
Compilation of RAPID-related contracts announced to-date (continued)
Contract type Company Value
EPCC WCT Holdings MYR316m
EPCC Maire Tecnimont and China HuanQiu Contracting & Engineering Corp USD482m
EPCC Muhibbah Engineering MYR300m
EPCC Samsung Engineering consortium USD882m
PCC WCT Holdings MYR322.56m
Sub-contract MMHE
Sub-contract MMHE
EPCC Mudajaya Group MYR220m
Source: Various
Opportunity amid adversity
Resilience, growth, valuations and Shariah compliance
The de-rating of the sector following the fall in share prices has practically
absorbed much of the negatives. Downside risk is limited. The risk-to-reward
outlook has improved with values turning attractive.
Fundamentally, we remain selective. Segment-wise, we advocate service
providers:
(i) in the ‘production space’ (FPSOs, tank terminals) over the exploration
segment as they are less sensitive to the fluctuation in oil price and
capex cuts, given their steady, bankable, long-term contract exposures,
(ii) that have proven to be resilient (i.e. have balance sheet strength with
sustained cashflows),
(iii) with visible growth prospects and undemanding valuations, and
(iv) that are Shariah-compliant.
Stock picks
Our preferred sector BUY picks are Yinson and BArmada (FPSO operators). Both
offer steady earnings growth, bankable growth prospects with attractive
valuations. Dialog (tank terminal), also a BUY, is a RAPID play. KNM is our small-
cap BUY pick, for its prospective transformation into a renewable energy play.
Crystalizing this aspect is a re-rating catalyst.
Yinson (YNS MK; TP: MYR4.35)
Yinson’s proposed special DPS of 15 sen once the sale of its non O&G
business is completed in 1Q16, which would translate to a yield of 5% is an
immediate catalyst.
Job markets in 2016 remain commendable with firm prospects in Asia and
Africa. Yinson targets to win 1-2 new jobs in 2016, a realistic target (not
incorporated into forecasts yet).
This makes Yinson a compelling growth stock (3-year forward net profit
CAGR of 17%) with decent dividends.
January 6, 2016 9
Malaysia Oil & Gas
Bumi Armada (BAB MK; TP: MYR1.20)
A Top 5 FPSO operator in the world (by fleet size).
We expect a significant 3.6x jump in earnings in 2017 if the ongoing
conversion works of 4 FPSO/FSU (Kraken, Eni, Madura and Malta) projects
are smoothly executed, with scheduled commencement targeted in 2017-18.
Similar to Yinson, BArmada targets 1-2 key jobs in Vietnam and Brazil to
ensure sustained growth beyond 2018.
KNM Group (KNMG MK; TP: MYR0.80)
A beneficiary of the RAPID project. In line to capitalize on the petrochemical
EPCC works slated to be awarded in 2016, after having won one of the five
major EPCC refineries works in 2014. We expect KNM to win USD1b worth of
RAPID jobs (>MYR1b secured to-date).
The key investment thesis to KNM is its transformation into a renewable
energy play, as it remodels its business from cyclical to a more secured,
recurring based income/sustained cashflow model.
The Thai-based ethanol renewable energy plant will be its maiden venture
into a BOO business. Securing the Peterborough job is a key catalyst.
Dialog (DLG MK; TP: MYR1.90)
Largest independent/dedicated tank terminal operator in Malaysia located in
Pengerang, Tanjung Langsat and Kertih with a combined storage capacity of
2.5m m3 to-date.
Dialog is a RAPID beneficiary. Its Phase 2 (SPV2; a 2.1m m3 dedicated storage
terminal) and Phase 3 operations (SPV3; a 3.5m tpa send out regasification
capacity and a 400,000 m3 LNG storage) to start by 2017-18, are undoubtedly
the anchors to its long term, sustainable earnings growth.
Committed to secure new strategic partners for subsequent phases (beyond
Phase 3) of its tank terminal operations, these being key long-term catalysts.
Cyclical interest
Whilst we acknowledge that an absolute recovery remains off the cards, the
volatility in the oil market also offers pockets of opportunities, from a
valuations/newsflow standpoint. This makes the sector a fertile ground to stock
pick, from a trading perspective.
Case in point is our two most recent stock upgrades in Dec 2015 to BUYs (SAKP
MK and ICON MK). Share prices for these stocks have performed well, having
appreciated by 14%/24% in less than a month, hitting near to our
MYR2.00/MYR0.42 TPs. We are now placing these stocks on HOLD pending further
updates with management.
Risks to our call. Downside risk to 2016 earnings include (i) persistent high
volatility in oil price and the prospect of depressed low oil prices (sub
USD40/bbl) over the longer term, (ii) replenishment risks due to further delays,
suspension of new projects, and (iii) cost overruns and higher opex.
January 6, 2016 10
Malaysia Oil & Gas
O&G stocks YoY performance in 2014 O&G stocks YoY performance in 2015
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
O&G stocks QoQ performance in 1Q15 O&G stocks QoQ performance in 2Q15
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
O&G stocks QoQ performance in 3Q15 O&G stocks QoQ performance in 4Q15
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
(71.4)
(61.0)
(59.9)
(55.4)
(52.4)
(48.5)
(48.1)
(41.1)
(28.9)
(24.4)
(20.0)
9.0
25.7
(49.7)
-100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0
Perisai
Icon Offshore
Alam Maritim
Bumi Armada
SapuraKencana
MMHE
Barakah Offshore
UMW O&G
Perdana Petroleum
Wah Seong
Dialog
KNM Group
Yinson
Crude oil (Brent)YTD % Gains / (Losses)
(54.5)
(43.8)
(42.3)
(38.5)
(32.5)
(17.8)
(11.7)
(5.1)
7.6
8.1
9.5
14.4
38.7
(35.9)
-80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0
UMW O&G
MMHE
Icon Offshore
Perisai
Alam Maritim
Wah Seong
SapuraKencana
Bumi Armada
KNM Group
Dialog
Yinson
Barakah Offshore
Perdana Petroleum
Crude oil (Brent)
YTD % Gains / (Losses)
(32.0)
(10.7)
(5.5)
(2.1)
2.6
4.5
5.0
5.3
7.1
10.2
11.7
19.8
36.1
(4.3)
-80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0
MMHE
Icon Offshore
Bumi Armada
UMW O&G
SapuraKencana
Yinson
Wah Seong
Dialog
Alam Maritim
Barakah Offshore
Perdana Petroleum
Perisai
KNM Group
Crude oil (Brent)Quarterly % Gains / (Losses)
(35.3)
(25.7)
(20.7)
(17.4)
(3.9)
0.0
0.0
1.2
7.9
8.5
11.3
12.2
22.6
15.0
-50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
Icon Offshore
UMW O&G
Alam Maritim
Perisai
KNM Group
MMHE
SapuraKencana
Dialog
Barakah Offshore
Yinson
Wah Seong
Bumi Armada
Perdana Petroleum
Crude oil (Brent)Quarterly % Gains / (Losses)
(31.6)
(27.8)
(24.2)
(22.1)
(19.9)
(18.9)
(14.0)
(14.0)
(10.9)
(5.0)
0.0
0.5
0.6
(23.2)
-40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0
UMW O&G
Perisai
KNM Group
Icon Offshore
SapuraKencana
Bumi Armada
MMHE
Alam Maritim
Wah Seong
Yinson
Perdana Petroleum
Barakah Offshore
Dialog
Crude oil (Brent)
Quarterly % Gains / (Losses)
(21.1)
(13.8)
(8.5)
(7.6)
(4.3)
(3.8)
0.0
0.8
1.7
7.4
8.5
10.3
28.4
(24.1)
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Wah Seong
Perisai
UMW O&G
Alam Maritim
Barakah Offshore
MMHE
Perdana Petroleum
Dialog
Yinson
SapuraKencana
KNM Group
Bumi Armada
Icon Offshore
Crude oil (Brent)
Quarterly % Gains / (Losses)
January 6, 2016 11
Malaysia Oil & Gas
Net gearing levels of O&G companies, as at latest financial quarters
Source: Maybank KE
SC's new Shariah compliant stocks
Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15
Alam Maritim Alam Maritim Alam Maritim Alam Maritim Alam Maritim
Barakah Barakah Barakah Barakah Barakah
Dialog Dialog Dialog Bumi Armada Bumi Armada
KNMG KNMG Icon Offshore Dialog Dialog
MMHE MMHE KNMG Icon Offshore Icon Offshore
Perdana Pet Perdana Pet MMHE KNMG KNMG
Perisai Perisai Perisai MMHE MMHE
SapuraKencana SapuraKencana UMW O&G Perisai Perisai
UMW O&G UMW O&G Wah Seong SapuraKencana SapuraKencana
Wah Seong Wah Seong
UMW O&G UMW O&G
Wah Seong Wah Seong
Yinson
Source: SC, Maybank KE
1.3
0.9 0.90.8 0.8
0.7
0.6
0.30.2 0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.3-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4(x)
January 6, 2016 12
Malaysia Oil & Gas
Research Offices
REGIONAL
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY
Regional Head, Research & Economics
(65) 6231 5836 [email protected]
WONG Chew Hann, CA
Regional Head of Institutional Research
(603) 2297 8686 [email protected]
ONG Seng Yeow
Regional Head of Retail Research
(65) 6231 5839 [email protected]
TAN Sin Mui
Director of Research
(65) 6231 5849 [email protected]
ECONOMICS
Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]
Luz LORENZO Philippines (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]
Tim LEELAHAPHAN Thailand (66) 2658 6300 ext 1420 [email protected]
JUNIMAN Chief Economist, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682 [email protected]
STRATEGY
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY
Global Strategist
(65) 6231 5836 [email protected]
Willie CHAN
Hong Kong / Regional
(852) 2268 0631 [email protected]
MALAYSIA
WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected] • Strategy
Desmond CH’NG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] • Oil & Gas Services- Regional
ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] • Plantations - Regional
Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected] • Aviation - Regional • Petrochem
YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] • Gaming – Regional • Media
TAN Chi Wei, CFA (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] • Power • Telcos
WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] • Property
LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] • Building Materials • Glove • Ports • Shipping
CHAI Li Shin, CFA (603) 2297 8684 [email protected] • Plantation • Construction & Infrastructure
Ivan YAP (603) 2297 8612 [email protected] • Automotive • Semiconductor • Technology
Kevin WONG (603) 2082 6824 [email protected] • REITs • Consumer Discretionary
LIEW Wei Han
(603) 2297 8676 [email protected] • Consumer Staples
LEE Cheng Hooi Regional Chartist (603) 2297 8694 [email protected]
Tee Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (603) 2297 6858 [email protected]
Cheah Chong Ling (603) 2297 8767 [email protected]
HONG KONG / CHINA
Howard WONG Head of Research (852) 2268 0648 [email protected] • Oil & Gas - Regional
Benjamin HO (852) 2268 0632 [email protected] • Consumer & Auto
Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633 [email protected] • Consumer Staples & Durables
Ka Leong LO, CFA (852) 2268 0630 [email protected] • Consumer Discretionary & Auto
Mitchell KIM (852) 2268 0634 [email protected] • Internet & Telcos
Osbert TANG, CFA (86) 21 5096 8370 [email protected] • Transport & Industrials
Stefan CHANG, CFA (852) 2268 0675 [email protected] • Technology
Steven ST CHAN (852) 2268 0645 [email protected] • Banking & Financials - Regional
Warren LAU (852) 2268 0644 [email protected] • Technology – Regional
INDIA
Jigar SHAH Head of Research
(91) 22 6623 2632 [email protected]
• Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
Anubhav GUPTA
(91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected]
• Metal & Mining • Capital Goods • Property
Vishal MODI
(91) 22 6623 2607 [email protected]
• Banking & Financials
Abhijeet KUNDU
(91) 22 6623 2628 [email protected]
• Consumer
Neerav DALAL
(91) 22 6623 2606 [email protected]
• Software Technology • Telcos
SINGAPORE
Gregory YAP (65) 6231 5848 [email protected] • SMID Caps • Technology & Manufacturing • Telcos
YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6231 5842 [email protected] • Offshore & Marine
Derrick HENG, CFA (65) 6231 5843 [email protected] • Transport • Property • REITs (Office)
Joshua TAN (65) 6231 5850 [email protected] • REITs (Retail, Industrial)
John CHEONG (65) 6231 5845 [email protected] • Small & Mid Caps • Healthcare
TRUONG Thanh Hang (65) 6231 5847 [email protected] • Small & Mid Caps
INDONESIA
Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research (62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected] • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement
Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
Aurellia SETIABUDI (62) 21 2953 0785 [email protected] • Property
Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected] • Infra • Construction • Transport• Telcos
Janni ASMAN (62) 21 2953 0784 [email protected] • Cigarette • Healthcare • Retail
Adhi TASMIN (62) 21 2557 1209 [email protected] • Plantations
PHILIPPINES
Luz LORENZO Head of Research (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected] • Strategy • Utilities • Conglomerates • Telcos
Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected] • Consumer • Media • Cement
Rommel RODRIGO (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] • Conglomerates • Property • Gaming • Ports/ Logistics
Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 [email protected] • Banks • Construction
Michael BENGSON (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected] • Conglomerates
Jaclyn JIMENEZ (63) 2 849 8842 [email protected] • Consumer
Arabelle MAGHIRANG (63) 2 849 8838 [email protected] • Banks
THAILAND
Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected] • Consumer • Materials • Ind. Estates
Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393 [email protected] • Services Sector • Transport
Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Retail Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090 [email protected]
Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected] • Strategy
Padon VANNARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1450 [email protected] • Strategy
Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470 [email protected] • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected] • Media • Commerce
Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected] • Energy • Petrochem
Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected] • Property
Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected] • Transportation • Small cap
VIETNAM
LE Hong Lien, ACCA Head of Institutional Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8181 [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Diversified • Utilities
THAI Quang Trung, CFA, Deputy Manager, Institutional Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8180 [email protected] • Real Estate • Construction • Materials
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8082 [email protected] • Oil & Gas
NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen, Head of Retail Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8081 [email protected] • Food & Beverage • Oil&Gas • Banking
TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8208 [email protected] • Technology • Utilities • Construction
PHAM Nhat Bich (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8083 [email protected] • Consumer • Manufacturing • Fishery
NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8084 [email protected] • Port operation • Pharmaceutical • Food & Beverage
TRUONG Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087 [email protected] • Rubber plantation • Tyres and Tubes • Oil&Gas
January 6, 2016 13
Malaysia Oil & Gas
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS
This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report.
This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report.
Malaysia
Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore
This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.
Thailand
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
US
This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations.
UK
This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
January 6, 2016 14
Malaysia Oil & Gas
Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.
Singapore: As of 6 January 2016, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.
Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.
As of 6 January 2016, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
DISCLOSURES
Legal Entities Disclosures
Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
January 6, 2016 15
Malaysia Oil & Gas
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