UN ECLAC’s methodology on disaster impact assessment

Ricardo ZapataRicardo Zapata ECLAC / ESCAP WorkshopECLAC / ESCAP Workshop 11

UN ECLAC’s UN ECLAC’s methodology on methodology on disaster impact disaster impact

assessment assessment An area of inter-regional cooperation An area of inter-regional cooperation

that has sparked interested in that has sparked interested in countries, regional and international countries, regional and international

institutions.institutions.


ECLAC’s substantive actionsECLAC’s substantive actions Update the methodology for socioeconomic and environmental Update the methodology for socioeconomic and environmental

damage assessment, publishing an expanded handbook that includes damage assessment, publishing an expanded handbook that includes new cross-cutting analyses such as environmental impact and the new cross-cutting analyses such as environmental impact and the gender perspective.gender perspective.

Extend the analytical capacity to prospective analysis and the Extend the analytical capacity to prospective analysis and the cumulative implications of disasters on growth path and cumulative implications of disasters on growth path and development.development.

Use mathematical and econometric models, develop scenarios on the Use mathematical and econometric models, develop scenarios on the projected impact of damageprojected impact of damage

Keep a proactive advocacy for disaster reduction and mitigation, Keep a proactive advocacy for disaster reduction and mitigation, focusing on decision makers in the economic and financial sectors as focusing on decision makers in the economic and financial sectors as well as the private sectorwell as the private sector

Maintain technical assistance to governments both Maintain technical assistance to governments both • in terms of damage appraisal after disasters, when required, and in terms of damage appraisal after disasters, when required, and • training in the use of the methodologytraining in the use of the methodology

Maintain and encourage interagency, inter-institutional, Maintain and encourage interagency, inter-institutional, multidisciplinary and inter-regional cooperation and joint actions with multidisciplinary and inter-regional cooperation and joint actions with relevant organizations both within the United Nations system and at relevant organizations both within the United Nations system and at the regional and subregional levelthe regional and subregional level


Basic premise and ECLAC’s vision and mission:Basic premise and ECLAC’s vision and mission: Economic valuation reduces vulnerabilityEconomic valuation reduces vulnerability

The visionThe vision• Development is a systemic process, Development is a systemic process,

integrated and global, based on some integrated and global, based on some structural pillars:structural pillars:

1.1. Competitiveness (in a globalized Competitiveness (in a globalized environment)environment)

• Equitable (in terms of Equitable (in terms of opportunities and access as a opportunities and access as a means to reduce poverty)means to reduce poverty)

• Governance (in terms of Governance (in terms of addressing economic, social and addressing economic, social and political exclusions)political exclusions)

• Sustainable and sound (in terms of Sustainable and sound (in terms of global change, environmental global change, environmental responsible management, responsible management, preserving inter-temporal preserving inter-temporal equilibriums and a smooth growth equilibriums and a smooth growth path)path)

• Resilience (in terms of addressing Resilience (in terms of addressing vulnerabilities both to external vulnerabilities both to external shocks, natural events and shocks, natural events and increasing the community’s increasing the community’s (stakeholders) response)(stakeholders) response)

The MissionThe Mission Follow-up and analyze Follow-up and analyze

economic, social and economic, social and environmental as well as environmental as well as political development political development processes in the LAC regionprocesses in the LAC region

Provide assistance to Provide assistance to governments in formulating governments in formulating development policiesdevelopment policies

Contribute to the debate on Contribute to the debate on development processes and development processes and models in the regionmodels in the region

Promote exchange of Promote exchange of experiences (lessons experiences (lessons learned, good practices, learned, good practices, etc.) by comparative and etc.) by comparative and monographic studiesmonographic studies

Promote dialogue within the Promote dialogue within the region and with other region and with other development countries on development countries on development issuesdevelopment issues


General considerationsGeneral considerations Formalize the systemic nature of the Formalize the systemic nature of the

concepts of risk, vulnerability and mitigationconcepts of risk, vulnerability and mitigation Given the recurrence of disasters promote Given the recurrence of disasters promote

proactive policies that establish the proactive policies that establish the difference between disaster and risk difference between disaster and risk management.management.

Promote the use of disaster valuation as a Promote the use of disaster valuation as a tool for reconstruction, mitigation and the tool for reconstruction, mitigation and the use of planning as a cross-cutting tool for a use of planning as a cross-cutting tool for a more resilient development process.more resilient development process.

Given the usefulness of historical records Given the usefulness of historical records both in terms of probability of recurrence and both in terms of probability of recurrence and damages incurred and expected, promote damages incurred and expected, promote studies to expand these.studies to expand these.

55ECLAC / ESCAP WorkshopECLAC / ESCAP WorkshopRicardo ZapataRicardo Zapata

SensibilitySensibility

Response Response CapabilityCapability

Probability of Probability of occurrenceoccurrence

TypeType

MagnitudeMagnitude

IntensityIntensity

Speed and velocitySpeed and velocity

PersistencePersistence

RecurrenceRecurrence


Vicious circle: Man, Environment, Vicious circle: Man, Environment, DisastersDisasters

Human actions Human actions progressively progressively deteriorate the deteriorate the environmentenvironment

Natural phenomena Natural phenomena affect the affect the environment environment (positively / (positively / negatively)negatively)

Impact of disasters Impact of disasters tends to increasetends to increase

NATURALNATURALPHENOMENAPHENOMENA

HUMANHUMANACTIONSACTIONS

ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT


Risk Risk AssessmentAssessment

Policy Policy strategiesstrategies

Poverty Poverty reductionreduction

DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

Economic Economic assessmentassessment

RESOURCERESOURCE

MOBILIZATIONMOBILIZATIONM

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National planningNational planning

Or the link between disasters, poverty and Or the link between disasters, poverty and developmentdevelopment


The images we The images we seesee

The figures we The figures we determinedetermine


The importance of scientific The importance of scientific research and informationresearch and information

Have reliable information Have reliable information on the type of eventon the type of event

Build prediction scenariosBuild prediction scenarios Know the evolution of Know the evolution of

successive, cumulative successive, cumulative eventsevents

Allow early warning, Allow early warning, prevention, mitigation and prevention, mitigation and reductionreduction

Make information available Make information available and understandable by and understandable by affected or exposed affected or exposed populationpopulation


TYPE OF HAZARDS IN DEVELOPING LATIN AMERICA:TYPE OF HAZARDS IN DEVELOPING LATIN AMERICA: VOLCANIC , VOLCANIC ,

SISMICSISMIC STORMS AND HURRICANESSTORMS AND HURRICANES


The importance of economic The importance of economic assessment of damage and needsassessment of damage and needs

Have a record on damage Have a record on damage caused by past eventscaused by past events

Establish link between level of Establish link between level of damage and magnitude or damage and magnitude or strength of a certain category strength of a certain category of eventof event

Value losses to quantify needs Value losses to quantify needs for rehabilitation and for rehabilitation and reconstructionreconstruction

Put in evidence the benefits of Put in evidence the benefits of mitigation and reductionmitigation and reduction

Make information available to Make information available to potentially affected or potentially affected or exposed communities exposed communities (stakeholders)(stakeholders)


Dynamic global effectsDynamic global effects

Macroeconomic effectsMacroeconomic effects Repercussions on the economic performance Repercussions on the economic performance

of national or regional economy affected by of national or regional economy affected by the disasterthe disaster

May persist for a number of years after the May persist for a number of years after the disaster, depending on the characeristics and disaster, depending on the characeristics and magnitudemagnitude

Is reflected inIs reflected in• Gross Domestic Product growthGross Domestic Product growth• Performance of the external sectorPerformance of the external sector• Evolution of public financeEvolution of public finance• Increases of prices and inflationIncreases of prices and inflation


Relative importance of magnitudeRelative importance of magnitudeTotal damage as % of GDPTotal damage as % of GDP

Mexico City Earthquake, 1985

El Niño, Andean region, 1997/1998

Hurricane Andrew

Venezuela Floods, 1999,

Hurricane Mitch, Central America

0

5

10

15

Daño total versus PIB

1.41.4 3.63.60.40.4

3.33.3

13.213.2


Eastern Caribbean: GDP at factor costsEastern Caribbean: GDP at factor costs

3

0.7

2.7

3.1

3.8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Year

An

nu

al P

erce

nta

ge

Ch

ang

e

Source: Statistical Offices, OECS and ECCB


GDP GROWTH RATE

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

%

Before the disaster After the disaster


EL SALVADOR: POSSIBLE EL SALVADOR: POSSIBLE RECONSTRUCTION SCENARIOS, RECONSTRUCTION SCENARIOS,

2001-20032001-2003

3.4

2.0

3.0 3.1 3.23.4

2.0

3.5

4.0 4.0

3.4

2.0

4.0

4.5

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

GD

P g

row

th rate

s

scenario

probable

scenario


Some figures on the impact of Some figures on the impact of disasters in Latin America and the disasters in Latin America and the

CaribbeanCaribbeanDeaths (1972-2003) 110,000 0.02% a/

Directly affected population (primary) (thousands) 15,000 2.68% a/

Total affected population (‘000) 160,000 28.57% a/

Total Damage (millions of dollars) 65,000

Yearly average amount (millions of dollars) 2,300

As percentage of exports of goods and services 0.55%

As percentage of foreign direct investment 7.92%

Source: ECLAC

a/ as percentage of total


Impact of major recent Impact of major recent disastersdisasters

PERIOD

TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT

EffectsExternal

sector

1998-1999 31,845 14,922 16,923 8,6772000-2001 3,614 2,210 1,478 8662002-2003 1,529 864 665 366TOTAL 36,988 17,996 19,067 9,909

TOTAL DAMAGE (millions of dollars de 2000)


Algunas cifras sobre el impacto en el CaribeAlgunas cifras sobre el impacto en el Caribe

Disaster

Impact on the economy (as

percentage of GDP)Relative damage to total f iscal income

Relative damage to total public debt

Relative damage to

total exportsEarthquake in Antigua and Barbuda (8 October 1974) 2.3 56.6 72.0 13.2Hurricanes Davi8d and Federico, Dominican Republic (August September 1979) 16.0 115.4 75.5 120.0Hurricane David in Dominica (August 1979) 296.5 1020.5 705.9Huricane Luis in Anguilla (1995) 94.0

Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn in Sint Maarten (Septemver 1995) 223.7 1672.7

Hurricane Georges in Saint Kitts and Nevis (September 1998) 193.3 691.2 1819.4Hurricane Georges in Dominican Republic (September 1998) 14.0 94.7 62.0 43.7Hurricane Lenny in Anguilla (November 1999) 146.2Hurricane Keith in Belize (November 1999) 45.7 78.8Hurricane Iris in Belize (October 2001) 38.5 65.0Hurricane Michelle in Jamaica (October 2001) 8.0 2.8 201.1Floods in Jamaica (May-June 2002) 0.7 4.0Average 89.9 522.0 669.8 339.0Source: ECLAC estimates on the basis of evaluations made at the request of Governments


Source: Overview of Hydro-meteorological Disasters in Asia, Ti Le-Huu, Water Resources Section, Environment and Sustainable Development Division, UNESCAP


As percentage of GDP (yearly average)

persons affected (yearly average) Major type of dysaster

China 3 to 6% 25 to 50 million Floods, earthquakes and firesBangladesh 30 million Floods and droughtCambodia .5 to 1 million Floods

IndonesiaFloods, typhoons, drought and fires

Laos 5 to 10% .5 million Floods, landslides, river bank erosion, drought and fires

Philippines Typhoons, floods and landsildesPakistan Floods and drought

VietnamFloods, typhoons and storm surges (flash floods)

Average for the region (ECLAC estimate) 10 to 15% 80 to 100 million

Floods, typhoons, landslides, drought and fires

Disasters' impact in Asia

Source: National papers presented at ESCAP Regional Workshop, May 2004


*NEW NEW

DISASTERDISASTER

Improvisation is Improvisation is avoidedavoided

Level of damage is Level of damage is reduced reduced

(lower vulnerability)(lower vulnerability)

Post-disaster phase

Stabilization - recuperation

Experience is recorded and valued

(lessons learned)Planning focuses on

vulnerability reduction

Tragic experience is

not forgotten to keep mitigation

effort as ongoing

Break disaster’s vicious cycleBreak disaster’s vicious cycleAdaptado de Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID, Adaptado de Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID,

1999)1999)


**SOCIAL SOCIAL

STABILITYSTABILITY

SECURITYSECURITY

((ReducedReduced

Vulnerability)Vulnerability)

GOOD GOOD GOVERNANCEGOVERNANCE

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC RECOVERYRECOVERY

BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND RESUMING THE BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND RESUMING THE PATH OF DEVELOPMENTPATH OF DEVELOPMENT

Conflict Prevention and ReconstructionConflict Prevention and Reconstruction






Exposure to risk and level of development: Exposure to risk and level of development: UNDP’s Disaster Risk IndexUNDP’s Disaster Risk Index

Source: United Nations Development Programme, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, presentation at ESCAP Regional Workshop, May 2004


WHAT IS THE ECLAC WHAT IS THE ECLAC METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY

A tool for the socio-economic and environmental A tool for the socio-economic and environmental assessment of disastersassessment of disasters

Multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary damage Multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary damage evaluation and quantification method for disaster evaluation and quantification method for disaster affected sectorsaffected sectors

Standard sectoral procedures that allows Standard sectoral procedures that allows comparability of resultscomparability of results

Instrument for the decision making process and Instrument for the decision making process and for policy formulation as it identifies more for policy formulation as it identifies more severely affected sectors, geographical areas and severely affected sectors, geographical areas and vulnerable groupsvulnerable groups

Conceptual improvement for measuring aspects Conceptual improvement for measuring aspects not included in national accounting and assessing not included in national accounting and assessing specific vulnerability (of social groups, such as specific vulnerability (of social groups, such as women and the environment)women and the environment)


Some things are easier to Some things are easier to measure than othersmeasure than others

IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINEIT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE• The value of lives lost or affectedThe value of lives lost or affected• The opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment / The opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment /

profitability. This is associated with the lack of adequate profitability. This is associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess the level, quality and efficiency / base lines that assess the level, quality and efficiency / efficacy of health services providedefficacy of health services provided

• The value and quality of services provided (both curative The value and quality of services provided (both curative and preventive) and preventive)

• The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when field hospitals and evacuation processes are operational)field hospitals and evacuation processes are operational)

IT IS EASIER TO DETERMINEIT IS EASIER TO DETERMINE• The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs.

The potential losses in equipment and inventories The potential losses in equipment and inventories • The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition

cost of affected infrastructurecost of affected infrastructure• The alternative cost of providing services when The alternative cost of providing services when

infrastructures collapseinfrastructures collapse


WHAT IT DOES:WHAT IT DOES: Allows projecting future performance of the affected Allows projecting future performance of the affected

economy in the short and medium term, and economy in the short and medium term, and implement the necessary corrective economic policy implement the necessary corrective economic policy measuresmeasures

Allows to determine the State’s capacity to face Allows to determine the State’s capacity to face reconstruction tasks and determine needs for reconstruction tasks and determine needs for cooperation and international financingcooperation and international financing

Facilitates training in damage valuation and Facilitates training in damage valuation and formulation of mitigation strategiesformulation of mitigation strategies

Involves affected population with relevant Involves affected population with relevant authorities and aid providersauthorities and aid providers

Puts in evidence the systemic character of the Puts in evidence the systemic character of the development process and the interaction among development process and the interaction among sectors and stakeholderssectors and stakeholders


Main ConceptsMain Concepts

Direct damagesDirect damages Impact on assetsImpact on assets

• InfrastructureInfrastructure• CapitalCapital• StocksStocks

Occur Occur immediately immediately during or after during or after the phenomenon the phenomenon that caused the that caused the disasterdisaster

Indirect DamagesIndirect Damages Effects on flowsEffects on flows

• ProductionProduction• Reduced income Reduced income

and increased and increased expensesexpenses

Are perceived after Are perceived after the phenomenon, for the phenomenon, for a time-period that a time-period that can last from weeks can last from weeks to months, till to months, till recuperation occursrecuperation occurs


Measuring the damage “delta” or damage gapMeasuring the damage “delta” or damage gap

Pre-existing Pre-existing conditions (ex ante)conditions (ex ante)

Expected Expected performance (without performance (without

disaster) 3-5 yearsdisaster) 3-5 years

Disaster impact Disaster impact (ex post)(ex post)3-5 years3-5 years

The measure The measure

Of direct and indirect damagesOf direct and indirect damages

Upon the pre-existing situation Upon the pre-existing situation

(sector by sector baselines) is aggregated into the (sector by sector baselines) is aggregated into the national accounts and determines the resulting disaster-national accounts and determines the resulting disaster-

caused scenario, as the gap over the expected caused scenario, as the gap over the expected performance prior to the event. Several scenarios may performance prior to the event. Several scenarios may be outlined, based on the assumptions made for the be outlined, based on the assumptions made for the

reconstruction processreconstruction process


Social SectorsSocial Sectors• HousingHousing• HealthHealth• Education, Education,

culture, sportsculture, sports InfrastructureInfrastructure

• Transport and Transport and communicationscommunications

• EnergyEnergy• Water and Water and

seweragesewerage

Productive sectors Productive sectors • Goods: agriculture, Goods: agriculture,

industryindustry• Services: commerce, Services: commerce,

tourism, etc.tourism, etc.

Global impactGlobal impact• On the On the

environmentenvironment• Gender perspectiveGender perspective• Employment and Employment and

social conditionssocial conditions• Macroeconomic Macroeconomic

assessmentassessment

SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY


Summary tableSummary tableSECTOR INDIRECT PUBLIC PRIVATE TOTAL EXTERNAL

IMPACTPhysical Monetary

estimatePRODUCTIVE SECTORSAgriculture (includes cattle raising, fisheries and forestry)IndustryCommerceServices - Financial and banking - Tourism - Personal and otherINFRASTRUCTUREWater (drinking, irrigation, drainage, sanitation and sewerage)Energy (generation, transmission, distribution) - Electricity - Other (petroleum, gas, etc.)Transport and communicationsSOCIAL ASPECTSEducationHealthHousingCultural heritageSocial fabricENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTSTOTALGOVERNMENT SECTOR IMPLICATIONS - Revenues

- Expenditures

DIRECT


Summary of global impactSummary of global impact

III. MACRO / GLOBAL IMPACT (current value)

Ex-ante situation (current period)

Ex-post situation (present period)

Short/medium term projections

(scenarios)

Scenario 1 (Below trend)

Scenario 2 (Average or

trend)Scenario 3

("Optimistic")1. GDPExternal Balance (A+B) - Exports - Imports A - TRADE BALANCE B - CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT BALANCE - Net loans (considering service and repayment) - Net donations - Net transfers (private) - Other net incoming resources (insurance and reinsurance payments)2. FISCAL BALANCE - Revenues - Expenditures3. CAPITAL ACCOUNT - Gross capital formation - domestic investment - foreign direct investment


ORGANIZATION OR ORGANIZATION OR PROCEDURAL ASPECTS OF PROCEDURAL ASPECTS OF ASSESSMENT EXERCISESASSESSMENT EXERCISES

Composition of team: multisectoral, Composition of team: multisectoral, interdisciplinary, interinstitutionalinterdisciplinary, interinstitutional

Timeliness: within the “window of Timeliness: within the “window of opportunity”, not interfering with opportunity”, not interfering with emergency actionsemergency actions

Ensure full coverage and avoid duplicationEnsure full coverage and avoid duplication The need for “judgment calls” or the The need for “judgment calls” or the

educated guessing of expertseducated guessing of experts Difference between emergency needs and Difference between emergency needs and

rapid assessment of need for reconstructionrapid assessment of need for reconstruction


ECLAC’s additional toolsECLAC’s additional tools

Through the use of REDATAM (a Through the use of REDATAM (a software developed to geo-reference software developed to geo-reference information of household surveys) it information of household surveys) it has been possible to visualize the has been possible to visualize the changing map of poverty and welfare changing map of poverty and welfare reduction caused by disasters (as reduction caused by disasters (as exemplified in the El Salvador exemplified in the El Salvador earthquakes of 2002)earthquakes of 2002)


Geographical distribution of damages: Geo-referencing and Geographical distribution of damages: Geo-referencing and impact on poverty and welfare levels in the case of El impact on poverty and welfare levels in the case of El

Salvador, both quakes (millions of dollars)Salvador, both quakes (millions of dollars)


ECLAC’s current activities in the ECLAC’s current activities in the field of an interregional naturefield of an interregional nature

IDB-ECLAC project on disaster indicators and national IDB-ECLAC project on disaster indicators and national studiesstudies: In this two part project ECLAC is executing a component : In this two part project ECLAC is executing a component that, through a modified, dynamic version of the methodology will that, through a modified, dynamic version of the methodology will look at the cumulative impact of disasters in selected countrieslook at the cumulative impact of disasters in selected countries

World Bank/Disaster Management Facility (DMF)-ECLACWorld Bank/Disaster Management Facility (DMF)-ECLAC work work programmes first allowed the publication in English and Spanish of programmes first allowed the publication in English and Spanish of the methodology and the presentation of it beyond Latin America the methodology and the presentation of it beyond Latin America and the Caribbean by participating and / or organizing workshops at and the Caribbean by participating and / or organizing workshops at the World Bank Headquarters (two since 2001) and with the Asian the World Bank Headquarters (two since 2001) and with the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok (2001) with a Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok (2001) with a regional nature and Manila (2004) at the national level with the civil regional nature and Manila (2004) at the national level with the civil defense authority. defense authority.

World Bank Institute (WBI)-ECLACWorld Bank Institute (WBI)-ECLAC collaboration in WBI regional collaboration in WBI regional courses by introducing in urban planning and development the courses by introducing in urban planning and development the disaster valuation module (in Panama, 2003, and Guatemala, 2004). disaster valuation module (in Panama, 2003, and Guatemala, 2004). Currently completed such module for a distance learning course that Currently completed such module for a distance learning course that will be launched in a training for trainers seminar at the world level will be launched in a training for trainers seminar at the world level (Moscow, June 2004)(Moscow, June 2004)


In other regionsIn other regions ECLAC-ADPC, through a memorandum of understanding in the ECLAC-ADPC, through a memorandum of understanding in the

process of being signed, support ADPC’s activities in adapting the process of being signed, support ADPC’s activities in adapting the ECLAC methodology to Asian countries. Currently providing ECLAC methodology to Asian countries. Currently providing technical expertise to a project in Gujarat, Indiatechnical expertise to a project in Gujarat, India

ECLAC-ESCAP, at the invitation and with the funding of ECLAC-ESCAP, at the invitation and with the funding of ESCAP/UNDP (Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Reduction, BCPR) ESCAP/UNDP (Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Reduction, BCPR) participated in a Regional Workshop on Methodologies of participated in a Regional Workshop on Methodologies of Assessment and their Application for Poverty Eradication and Assessment and their Application for Poverty Eradication and Economic Development (Bangkok, 18 - 20 May 2004)Economic Development (Bangkok, 18 - 20 May 2004)

ECLAC-ISDR, ongoing collaboration with the secretariat both at the ECLAC-ISDR, ongoing collaboration with the secretariat both at the regional level with its Latin American and Caribbean office in regional level with its Latin American and Caribbean office in Costa Rica and headquarters in Geneva, which allowed in the past Costa Rica and headquarters in Geneva, which allowed in the past the translation to French of the methodology, and now preparing the translation to French of the methodology, and now preparing collaboration for the participation in the 2nd. World Conference on collaboration for the participation in the 2nd. World Conference on Disaster Reduction (to be held in Kobe, Japan, January 2005)Disaster Reduction (to be held in Kobe, Japan, January 2005)


FUTURE DEVELOPMENTFUTURE DEVELOPMENT Lessons from past events and changing Lessons from past events and changing

conditions associated with climate variability and conditions associated with climate variability and changechange

Move from “forensic” appraisal of disasters as Move from “forensic” appraisal of disasters as done for over 30 years to “preventive medicine” done for over 30 years to “preventive medicine” where valuation is a tool for disaster reductionwhere valuation is a tool for disaster reduction

Improvement and expansion of methodology in Improvement and expansion of methodology in social and environmental aspectssocial and environmental aspects

Combine the existing methodology of ECLAC with Combine the existing methodology of ECLAC with econometric modeling and prospective analysis econometric modeling and prospective analysis and forecastingand forecasting

Train national local authorities to gather relevant Train national local authorities to gather relevant baseline data and government officials in the baseline data and government officials in the economic planning and financial ministrieseconomic planning and financial ministries

Promote mitigation policies and risk Promote mitigation policies and risk management beyond response to preventionmanagement beyond response to prevention


The images we do not want to seeThe images we do not want to see


Where do we want to be in the Where do we want to be in the future? future?

(in the medium and long term)(in the medium and long term)

Changed emphasis from relief and damage Changed emphasis from relief and damage valuation after the event to use of risk valuation after the event to use of risk management instruments and cooperation for management instruments and cooperation for disaster reductiondisaster reduction

Have increasingly in place policies that include:Have increasingly in place policies that include:• Economic instruments (from the public sector) Economic instruments (from the public sector) • Financial products (public and private, including Financial products (public and private, including

such as Cat Bonds, etc.) such as Cat Bonds, etc.) • Public and private assessment of risk and Public and private assessment of risk and

auditing of risk management strategies, auditing of risk management strategies, including questions of accountability and liabilityincluding questions of accountability and liability


Concrete proposals for the short Concrete proposals for the short termterm

ECLAC – ESCAP cooperation in methodological development and ECLAC – ESCAP cooperation in methodological development and adaptationadaptation

Joint project to be undertaken with the support and cooperation of Joint project to be undertaken with the support and cooperation of Asian countries and UNDP (BCPR)Asian countries and UNDP (BCPR)

Contribute to the development of UNDP’s Disaster Risk Index, Contribute to the development of UNDP’s Disaster Risk Index, which is based on lives lost and requires increase weight of socio-which is based on lives lost and requires increase weight of socio-economic impacteconomic impact

Participation in the 2nd. Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe, Participation in the 2nd. Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe, January 2005)January 2005)

Partnership with ISDR Secretariat Partnership with ISDR Secretariat Partnership with the World Bank and the Provention ConsortiumPartnership with the World Bank and the Provention Consortium Explore possibilities for cooperation activities with ECA and the Explore possibilities for cooperation activities with ECA and the

other regional commissions for example in the valuation of other regional commissions for example in the valuation of droughts and watershed management (as part of the Water droughts and watershed management (as part of the Water Decade)Decade)

Expand the analysis of the linkage and systemic relation between Expand the analysis of the linkage and systemic relation between disasters, poverty and the achievement of the MDGsdisasters, poverty and the achievement of the MDGs


Thank youThank you www.eclac.clwww.eclac.cl www.eclac.cl/mexicowww.eclac.cl/mexico

Documents

UN ECLAC’s methodology on disaster impact assessment