UkEcco: concepts & work to date

UkEcco: concepts & work to date

Simon Roberts

ECCOfest 2009

14Oct09

14Oct09, Simon Roberts© Arup 2009

2

flow ofservicesVPJ/y

embodiedenergy of

stuffVPJ flow of

stuffVPJ/y

services%

IrelandEcco concepts

energyPJ/y

stocks ofstuffVPJ

trade in goods

trade in fuel

CO2t/y

resourceVPJ/y

depreciation

VPJ/y

transportkm/y


3

CSIRO report, 1998, p53

In order to endogenise growth in the model, it is assumed that only the residual between output and all other investment requirements (including trade) is allocated to reinvestment in industry, and consumption, the split between the two being determined empirically and altered by a policy lever RGCT (rate of goods consumption) in the section on “Personal consumption of goods”.

Reinvestment in industry is subject to a construction delay, estimated at two years ie it takes two years for a decision to invest in industry to be translated into new physical output.


4

IrelandEccogrowth loop

output of goods

primary energy demand

depreciation

proportion of services used by industrystock of

service sector

stock of industry sector

resources

export of goods

resource demand

capital formation of other sectors

capital formationof services

consumptionof goods

depreciation

depreciation

import of goods

capital formationof industry export of

fuel

import of fuel


5

growth feedback

• 3,000 VPJ/y total output

• 100 VPJ/y industry investment (RCF)

• 2,000 VPJ industry stock


6

IrelandEccoenergy provision shortfall

shortfall in electricity generation

thermalgeneration

fuelimports/exports

domestic extraction

transport thermal demand

electricity demand

stationary thermal demand

gas, oil & coal demand

freight demand

index standard of livingper capita

CCTgeneration

nucleargeneration

REgeneration

interconnector

capitalformation ofgeneration

shortfall/surplus in fuels

stock of service sector

stock of other sectors

stock of dwellings


consumption of goods

service demand dwellings passenger

transport volume

output of industry

output of service sector


7

IrelandEccoservice provision needed

total domestic service demand



capital formationof service sector

depreciation

stock of dwellings

service demand service sector

service demand industry sector

service demand dwellings

service demand net of trade

stock of service sector required

service demand for exports


8

IrelandEcco: variables

endogenous• RCF industry• consumer consumption• RCF services

exogenous• service exports


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IrelandEcco: problems

1. “growth loop”– small residual (RCF IND) feeds back to the larger IND OUTPUT– derivation of “consumption” poorly substantiated

2. trade– energy imports VPJ equated to goods export VPJ– as energy imports increase, exactly balanced by goods export

increase

3. services– no conversion to exported services– ignores imported services

4. balance of payments– no option to trade fuel, goods, services and other aspects


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UkEcco: variables

endogenous• consumer consumption• RCF services• RCF dwellings• GDP growth• energy demand• employment• foreign investment

exogenous• RCF industry• indices• fossil fuel availability • service exports


11

flow ofservicesVPJ/y

embodiedenergy of

stuffVPJ

flow ofgoodsG£/y

flow ofstuff

VPJ/y

servicesS£/y

UkEcco conceptsenergyPJ/y

stocks ofstuffVPJ

trade in goods

trade in fuel

financial account

income

BoPÂ£/y

current account transfers

trade in services

workingpopulation

capita

CO2t/y

resourceVPJ/y

depreciation

VPJ/y

domesticliabilities

£

foreignassets

£

financial account

transportkm/y

income


12

money

1. goods (flow)

2. services (flow)

3. incomes (flow)

4. property, equity, second-hand goods (stock)

5. debt, loans


13

loop 1: stuff remaining(“growth loop”)

output of goods

primary energy demand

depreciation

proportion of services used by industrystock of

service sector


resources

export of goods

resource demand

capital formation of other sectors

capital formationof services

capital formation of industry

consumptionof goods

depreciation

depreciation

import of goods


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loop 2: service provision needed

total domestic service demand



service demand met by importscapital formation

of service sector

depreciation

stock of dwellings

service demand service sector

service demand industry sector

service demand dwellings

service demand net of trade

stock of service sector required

service demand for exports


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loop 3: energy provision shortfall

shortfall in electricity generation

thermalgeneration

fuelimports/exports

domestic extraction

transport thermal demand

electricity demand

stationary thermal demand

gas, oil & coal demand

freight demand

index standard of livingper capita

CCTgeneration

nucleargeneration

REgeneration

interconnector

capitalformation ofgeneration

shortfall/surplus in fuels


stock of other sectors

stock of dwellings


consumption of goods

service demand dwellings passenger

transport volume

output of industry

output of service sector


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loop 4: balance of payments

fuel trade

income from assets

transfers

UK investment abroad

total current account

investmentinto the UK

exports

exchange rate

goods trade

services tradeimports

income payable on liabilities

fuel £

goods £

services £


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presentation attempts!

• IoP EG talk (Oct07)• takes: 0 (Aug08), 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (Jun09, pp53)• “The story of…” video (Jul09)• dashboards of scenarios (Sep09)• presentation of dashboards (12Oct09)

Documents

UkEcco: concepts & work to date