uk trading & value indicator 20120410

8/2/2019 uk trading & value indicator 20120410

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uk-trading-value-indicator-20120410 1/25

10 April 2012

UK Trading &

ValueIndicator



Intellisys www.intellisys.uk.com 10 April 2012

Page 2 of 25 ©Intellisys 10 April 2012

Contents

Market Pictures - Indices ......................................................................... 5

FTSE 100 ................................................................................................ 5 FTSE 250 ................................................................................................ 6 FTSE All Share Index ................................................................................ 7 FTSE AIM All Share .................................................................................. 8

Market Pictures – Interest Rates ............................................................ 10 UK Bank Lending Rates ........................................................................... 10 Eurozone Lending Rates .......................................................................... 11 US Federal Funds Rate ........................................................................... 12

Market Pictures – Exchange Rates ......................................................... 13 Market Pictures - Oil............................................................................... 15 Aerospace & Defence ............................................. Over Valued 16 Automobiles & Parts .............................................. Over Valued 16 Banks ............................................................. Under Valued 16 Beverages ........................................................ Over Valued 16 Chemicals ........................................................ Under Valued 16 Construction & Building Materials .............................. Over Valued 17 Electronics & Electrical Equipment ............................. Over Valued 17 Engineering & Machinery ........................................ Over Valued 17 Food & Drug Stores ............................................... Under Valued 18 Food Producers & Processors ................................... Over Valued 18 General Retail ..................................................... Over Valued 18 Health .............................................................. Under Valued 18 Household Goods & Textiles .................................... Under Valued 18 Information Technology & Hardware .......................... Over Valued 19 Insurance ........................................................ Over Valued 19 Leisure & Hotels .................................................. Under Valued 19 Life Assurance .................................................. Over Valued 19 Media & Entertainment .......................................... Over Valued 20 Mining .............................................................. Under Valued 20 Oil & Gas ........................................................... Under Valued 20 Personal Care & Household Products .......................... Over Valued 20 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology .............................. Under Valued 21 Software & Computer Services ................................. Under Valued 21 Speciality & Other Finance

......................................

Over Valued21

Support Services .................................................. Under Valued 22 Telecommunication Services .................................... Under Valued 22 Transport ........................................................ Under Valued 23 Utilities ............................................................. Under Valued 23 DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................. 24





IntroductionThe overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guidethat will identify those shares that merit their investment attention in anincreasingly time critical and information noisy trading environment.

The report is published daily and delivered to the subscriber’s personal email box,

typically, before the official open of the London Stock Markets.

Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of aninvestment are the two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.

TimingIntellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key

factors that influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters,these have been established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cutthrough the daily investment noise.

Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimentalfactors as well as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters(analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment meetings.

From an analysis of a year’s data for 40 stocks within Intellisys’ stock coverage,the trading indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate inidentifying good trading points as well as some 74% accurate for overall trend

correlation.

The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40stocks analysed.

Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores

Source: Intellisys

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Best Buy/Sell Trend





Value

A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing ‘Target Prices’.On a daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from notonly the Profit & Loss Account but also the Balance Sheet and Cash flow

Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.

Intellisys’ architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his

investment research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment

valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.

The resultant ‘Target’ is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the

‘Target’ as realistically valid as possible.

Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that ‘Target Price’ delivery is not only a

function of market levels but a management team’s ability to establish andmaintain a value generating operating environment set against a constantlychanging global background.

The typical investment analyst’s approach to determining ‘target prices’ is to startwith a modest range of some 6 – 10 valuation measures and remove those that

are not providing the ‘intuitive’ result. Intellysis’ approach is the opposite we useas many valuation methodologies as possible.

Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange orextreme. However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them

as starting points to challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.

In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist

investors from ‘falling in love’ with a stock or becoming mesmerised by ‘management cults’.

ConclusionNo investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading andinvestment systems active position monitoring is critical for maximisedinvestment performance.

Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunctionwith, and not separate from subscriber’s existing investment systems as well asdiscussing investment options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish ([email protected])

RISK WARNING – Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated

in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.





Market Pictures - Indices

FTSE 100

Index PE

3,512.1

3,925.5

4,944.4

5,723.7

6,082.9

6,091.3

6,732.4

2000 4000 6000 8000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100

7.0

7.9

7.9

9.7

14.1

18.2

18.2

5 10 15 20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 PE

% change % change

1M -0.7; 3M 1.3; 12M -5.3 1M -1.2; 3M -5.3; 12M -30.7

Yield RSI

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.6

3.9

5.2

6.2

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 DY

25.5

37.7

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 100 RSI

% change

1M 2.3; 3M 2.3; 12M 21.5






FTSE 250

Index PE

5,491.5

6,718.4

9,425.9

11,380.6

12,167.8

12,167.8

12,220.2

500 5500 10500 15500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250

7.1

7.1

7.1

18.5

19.5

27.8

27.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 PE

% change % change

1M 2.1; 3M 11.1; 12M -3.4 1M 10.1; 3M 19.6; 12M 6.6

Yield RSI

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.8

3.3

4.0

5.7

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 DY

25.6

40.9

83.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 250 RSI

% change

1M -1.1; 3M -8.5; 12M 19.1






FTSE All Share Index

Index PE

1,781.6

1,998.7

2,557.8

2,977.0

3,160.9

3,160.9

3,479.0

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE

7.4

8.5

8.5

10.5

14.6

19.5

19.5

5 10 15 20 25

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE PE

% change % change

1M -0.3; 3M 2.8; 12M -5.0 1M -0.3; 3M -2.8; 12M -27.6

Yield RSI

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.5

3.8

5.1

6.1

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE DY

25.4

38.2

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE RSI

% change

1M 1.5; 3M 0.0; 12M 20.4






FTSE AIM All Share

Index PE

373.8

423.4

657.8

781.8

921.6

968.3

1,236.6

200 700 1200 1700

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-267.6

304.6

1,240.8

1,439.5

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE PE

% change % change

1M -0.8; 3M 9.7; 12M -14.7 1M -197.6; 3M -367.2; 12M -57.6

Yield RSI

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.9

2.1

0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE DY

23.6

36.8

91.9

0 50 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE RSI

% change

1M 6.2; 3M -2.8; 12M 17.0






S&P 500

Index PE

676.5

815.6

1,099.2

1,398.1

1,419.0

1,419.0

1,565.2

400 900 1400 1900

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE

13.4

13.4

13.4

16.3

17.5

146.3

146.3

10 60 110 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE PE

% change % change

1M 4.1; 3M 9.4; 12M 4.7 1M 3.7; 3M 10.8; 12M -5.9

Yield RSI

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.7

3.4

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE DY

30.0

49.6

81.6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE RSI

% change

1M 1.9; 3M -2.3; 12M 12.6





Market Pictures – Interest Rates

UK Bank Lending Rates

UK

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

5.75

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

UK Lending PE

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

17.4

10 60 110 160 210

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE PE






Eurozone Lending Rates

Eurozone

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.25

2.50

5.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

Eurozone Lending PE

57.1

57.1

57.1

57.1

44.4

40.0

19.0

10 20 30 40 50 60

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE - PE






US Federal Funds Rate

US

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.15

0.17

0.25

5.41

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

% change

1M 36.4; 3M 114.3; 12M 50.0

US Lending PE

2,500.0

2,500.0

2,500.0

666.7

588.2

400.0

18.5

10 510 1010 1510 2010 2510 3010

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - PE





Market Pictures – Exchange Rates

US$/£

1.37

1.43

1.53

1.58

1.67

1.70

2.11

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/£

% change

1M 0.6; 3M 2.7; 12M -3.0

€/£

1.02

1.07

1.11

1.21

1.21

1.24

1.50

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EURO/£

% change

1M 1.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 6.6





Market Pictures – Exchange Rates

US$/€

1.19

1.19

1.27

1.31

1.48

1.51

1.60

0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/EURO

% change

1M -0.1; 3M 3.0; 12M -8.6

¥ /£

117.1

117.1

117.1

130.4

139.3

162.5

250.1

100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

YEN/£

% change

1M 2.6; 3M 9.7; 12M -6.5





Market Pictures - Oil

Brent – Monthly FOB US$/bbl

34.6

48.3

104.0

122.8

126.6

126.6

145.6

0 50 100 150 200

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

Oil (Brent) Monthly FOB U$/bbl

% change

1M -0.02; 3M 9.30; 12M 0.07


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.





Aerospace & Defence Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BAE SYSTEMS 291.30 248.10 340.80 Buy Strong Buy 603 0.65

CHEMRING GROUP 387.20 368.80 707.00 Neutral Strong Buy 586 0.52

COBHAM 230.00 165.90 235.50 Neutral Neutral 240 0.91

MEGGITT 397.20 305.00 412.00 Neutral Sell 348 1.34

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS 816.00 552.19 842.50 Neutral Sell 672 1.10

SMITHS GROUP 1014.00 869.50 1340.00 Neutral Neutral 1050 0.73

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG. 1726.00 1305.00 1780.00 Neutral Sell 1279 0.60

UMECO 381.00 243.50 499.88 Neutral Sell 340 0.80

Automobiles & Parts Over Valued


GKN 199.80 157.00 245.00 Neutral Sell 158 1.98

INCHCAPE 368.80 268.60 425.40 Neutral Sell 306 1.42

LOOKERS 62.50 47.00 72.75 Neutral Neutral 63 1.34

PENDRAGON 13.75 6.80 19.71 Neutral Strong Buy 22 1.14

Banks Under Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BARCLAYS 219.30 138.85 308.85 Neutral Strong Buy 405 1.86

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50) 554.50 463.50 667.20 Neutral Strong Buy 1061 1.14

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP 31.38 21.84 62.36 Neutral Strong Buy 85 1.77

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP. 25.82 17.34 44.43 Sell Sell 9 1.29

STANDARD CHARTERED 1524.50 1169.50 1690.00 Neutral Sell 753 1.71

Beverages Over Valued


BARR (AG) 1147.00 1031.00 1395.00 Neutral Neutral 1216 0.43

DIAGEO 1523.50 1112.00 1553.00 Neutral Sell 1344 0.55

SABMILLER 2544.50 1979.00 2660.00 Neutral Buy 2919 0.99

Chemicals Under Valued


CRODA INTERNATIONAL 2072.00 1597.00 2238.00 Neutral Sell 1703 1.08

ELEMENTIS 186.10 107.50 196.10 Neutral Neutral 178 1.07

JOHNSON MATTHEY 2330.00 1523.00 2408.00 Neutral Neutral 2451 1.47

VICTREX 1375.00 1025.00 1590.00 Neutral Neutral 1398 1.22

YULE CATTO 238.50 148.00 253.00 Neutral Buy 347 1.29

ZOTEFOAMS 186.50 109.00 186.50 Neutral Buy 237 1.01





Construction & Building Materials Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BALFOUR BEATTY 281.00 214.60 335.30 Neutral Neutral 301 0.84

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS 132.50 67.50 151.50 Neutral Sell 66 1.45

BELLWAY 791.00 540.50 859.50 Neutral Sell 682 1.01

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE) 1327.00 1019.00 1414.00 Neutral Neutral 1330 0.68

BOVIS HOMES GROUP 466.60 326.50 518.50 Neutral Sell 207 1.07

CARILLION 287.40 281.00 403.20 Neutral Buy 365 1.09

CLARKE (T) 49.00 35.50 104.00 Neutral Strong Buy 202 0.80COSTAIN GROUP 233.00 180.00 247.50 Neutral Strong Buy 795 0.56

GALLIFORD TRY 602.50 383.75 628.00 Neutral Sell 561 1.05

KELLER 440.50 239.25 671.50 Neutral Sell 408 1.32

KIER GROUP 1107.00 1097.00 1489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3218 1.04

LOW & BONAR 60.00 38.00 76.75 Neutral Strong Buy 148 1.11

MARSHALLS 95.50 83.25 124.50 Neutral Sell 67 1.35

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP 665.00 510.00 725.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1454 0.89

PERSIMMON 628.00 374.00 706.50 Neutral Neutral 634 1.10

REDROW 124.50 103.50 135.30 Neutral Sell 87 0.97

SIG 113.40 76.95 153.50 Neutral Sell 10 1.59

TAYLOR WIMPEY 48.48 28.71 52.75 Neutral Sell 13 1.50

TRAVIS PERKINS 1066.00 715.00 1125.00 Neutral Neutral 1088 1.89

WOLSELEY 2342.00 1404.00 2558.00 Neutral Sell 1766 1.44

Electronics & Electrical Equipment Over Valued


DIALIGHT 935.00 643.50 935.00 Sell Sell 434 0.76

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES 558.00 434.30 701.50 Neutral Buy 674 1.18

E2V TECHNOLOGIES 120.75 86.75 146.50 Neutral Buy 150 1.35

INVENSYS 198.10 180.90 340.60 Neutral Strong Buy 371 1.47

LAIRD 213.00 127.90 219.00 Neutral Sell 186 2.17

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS 1163.00 714.00 1262.00 Neutral Sell 786 0.99

RENISHAW 1314.00 800.00 1886.00 Neutral Buy 1871 1.29

SPECTRIS 1790.00 1039.00 1837.00 Neutral Sell 1159 1.43

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES 0.17 0.14 0.28 Neutral Strong Buy 0 0.64

TT ELECTRONICS 163.50 120.50 208.00 Neutral Buy 232 1.60

XAAR 233.00 212.00 295.00 Neutral Sell 121 1.13

Engineering & Machinery Over Valued


AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP 87.63 62.50 126.50 Neutral Strong Buy 264 1.32

BODYCOTE 376.40 225.60 426.50 Neutral Sell 315 1.59

CASTINGS 295.00 252.50 358.00 Neutral Strong Buy 466 0.98

COOKSON GROUP 710.00 395.80 732.50 Neutral Neutral 684 2.29

FENNER 427.50 280.00 483.70 Neutral Neutral 414 1.41

HALMA 387.40 306.30 429.60 Neutral Sell 332 0.76

HILL & SMITH 331.75 235.00 393.50 Neutral Strong Buy 527 1.41

IMI 975.50 636.50 1119.00 Neutral Buy 1243 1.40

METALRAX GROUP 8.25 7.25 12.00 Neutral Sell 6 0.86

MORGAN C RUCIBLE 316.20 224.00 360.00 Neutral Neutral 306 1.77

ROTORK 2040.00 1501.00 2099.00 Neutral Sell 1620 0.99

SENIOR 194.00 135.60 203.00 Neutral Buy 216 1.77

SEVERFIELD-ROWEN 174.88 150.00 255.25 Neutral Sell 151 1.07

SPIRAX-SARCO 2136.00 1649.00 2184.00 Sell Neutral 2039 0.85

VITEC GROUP 684.00 488.00 690.00 Neutral Neutral 664 1.52

WEIR GROUP 1727.00 1375.00 2236.00 Neutral Sell 1434 1.39





Food & Drug Stores Under Valued


GREGGS 517.00 445.00 558.00 Neutral Sell 296 0.52

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 293.50 277.00 328.00 Neutral Buy 368 0.45

SAINSBURY (J) 303.20 263.50 362.80 Neutral Strong Buy 566 0.64

TESCO 324.50 310.45 420.05 Neutral Buy 422 0.73

THORNTONS 29.88 9.50 82.00 Sell Sell 28 0.77

Food Producers & Processors Over Valued


ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 1205.00 977.00 1233.00 Neutral Sell 1016 0.60

CRANSWICK 810.00 588.50 841.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1513 0.60

DAIRY CREST 324.50 311.00 409.70 Neutral Strong Buy 728 0.93

DEVRO 314.50 232.00 332.20 Neutral Strong Buy 661 0.33

PREMIER FOODS 15.25 3.29 35.12 Neutral Sell -30 1.40

TATE & LYLE 704.00 544.50 720.50 Neutral Buy 819 0.63

UNILEVER (UK) 2043.00 1892.00 2189.00 Neutral Sell 996 0.58

General Retail Over Valued


ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS 22.00 16.00 23.75 Neutral Buy 29 0.71

BROWN (N) GROUP 228.30 227.00 304.50 Neutral Buy 252 0.49

BURBERRY GROUP 1538.00 1092.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 529 1.36

CARPETRIGHT 647.50 375.00 741.00 Neutral Sell 203 1.03

CLINTON CARDS 9.38 7.50 21.25 Sell Neutral 10 0.65

DIXONS RETAIL 18.34 9.36 19.91 Neutral Strong Buy 28 1.45

FINDEL 3.40 2.20 8.70 Neutral Sell 3 0.97

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP 44.75 36.00 106.00 Neutral Strong Buy 100 0.93

HALFORDS GROUP 308.40 269.50 405.90 Neutral Buy 409 0.64

JJB SPORTS 17.00 5.20 31.00 Sell Strong Buy 1179 0.88

JD SPORTS FASHION 797.00 570.00 1030.00 Neutral Buy 1189 0.48

KESA ELECTRICALS 65.55 60.20 151.40 Neutral Strong Buy 287 1.28KINGFISHER 306.10 217.00 313.80 Neutral Sell 285 0.97

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP 368.80 301.80 402.20 Neutral Neutral 387 0.74

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP 47.50 25.50 48.25 Neutral Sell 22 1.07

MOTHERCARE 152.00 127.30 448.50 Neutral Strong Buy 361 0.56

NEXT 2967.00 2052.00 3060.00 Neutral Sell 2120 0.78

TED BAKER 810.50 633.00 830.00 Neutral Sell 468 0.56

TOPPS TILES 38.50 21.50 77.00 Neutral Sell 22 1.33

Health Under Valued


CONSORT MEDICAL 639.50 498.00 639.50 Neutral Sell 421 0.39CORIN GROUP 40.25 36.50 59.00 Neutral Buy 50 0.76

SMITH & NEPHEW 615.00 521.00 705.50 Neutral Buy 767 0.36

Household Goods & Textiles Under Valued


HARVARD INTL. 39.88 21.75 42.13 Neutral Sell 30 0.48

GAMES WORKSHOP 570.00 370.00 577.50 Neutral Sell 478 0.38

HEADLAM GROUP 295.00 233.25 310.00 Neutral Buy 344 0.93

HORNBY 93.75 93.00 145.00 Neutral Strong Buy 143 0.65





Information Technology & Hardware Over Valued


ARM HOLDINGS 600.00 464.00 645.00 Neutral Sell 410 0.76

CSR 218.60 154.10 391.40 Neutral Strong Buy 610 1.20

FILTRONIC 32.25 14.50 34.00 Sell Strong Buy 60 0.66

IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES 679.50 296.90 717.00 Neutral Sell 263 0.96

PSION 59.00 41.00 102.75 Neutral Strong Buy 347 1.16

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS 161.60 105.80 162.20 Neutral Strong Buy 384 1.01

WOLFSON MIC ROELECTRONIC S 190.00 96.00 244.50 Neutral Sell 83 1.06

Insurance Over Valued


ADMIRAL GROUP 1207.00 787.00 1754.00 Neutral Sell -8356 0.51

AMLIN 317.20 270.60 427.00 Neutral Strong Buy 7113 0.49

BEAZLEY 138.80 109.60 151.80 Neutral Strong Buy 2314 0.51

CATLIN GROUP 414.60 336.00 449.00 Neutral Sell 84 0.31

HISCOX 393.60 340.50 424.70 Neutral Strong Buy 6420 0.50

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON 690.50 576.00 764.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4440 0.32

RSA INSURANCE GROUP 104.30 99.60 139.80 Neutral Strong Buy 2737 0.43

NOVAE GROUP 372.00 285.00 385.25 Neutral Strong Buy 6152 0.50

Leisure & Hotels Under Valued


CARNIVAL 1919.00 1742.00 2642.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3125 1.08

ENTERPRISE INNS 58.00 26.50 96.15 Neutral Sell 28 1.73

TUI TRAVEL 188.90 136.70 250.00 Neutral Strong Buy 676 0.95

FULLER SMITH 'A' 730.00 600.00 752.00 Neutral Sell 567 0.44

GREENE KING 510.50 410.00 523.50 Neutral Neutral 556 0.86

LADBROKES 162.20 114.00 165.00 Neutral Neutral 162 1.00

ICTL.HTLS.GP. 1440.00 955.00 1497.00 Neutral Buy 1666 1.31

MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS. 474.50 371.20 540.00 Neutral Sell 423 1.41

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS 258.00 215.60 336.80 Neutral Buy 336 1.02

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM. 162.60 100.60 174.00 Neutral Sell 117 1.26PUNCH TAVERNS 10.88 9.14 15.70 Neutral Sell -202 1.30

RANK GROUP 127.50 109.50 153.70 Neutral Buy 177 0.99

RESTAURANT GROUP 294.00 254.90 335.00 Neutral Neutral 308 0.85

WETHERSPOON (JD) 409.10 380.50 468.30 Neutral Buy 579 0.72

WHITBREAD 1849.00 1409.00 1870.00 Neutral Sell 1566 1.02

WILLIAM HILL 262.10 180.00 265.00 Neutral Neutral 267 0.94

MARSTON'S 97.50 84.60 112.00 Neutral Strong Buy 153 1.26

Life Assurance Over Valued


AVIVA 317.00 275.30 452.70 Neutral Strong Buy 435 1.26CHESNARA 193.25 161.75 255.00 Neutral Neutral 177 0.58

LEGAL & GENERAL 127.80 89.80 135.00 Neutral Buy 83 1.67

OLD MUTUAL 157.10 98.05 164.60 Neutral Sell 160 1.66

PRUDENTIAL 736.00 509.00 797.50 Neutral Sell 316 1.72

ST.JAMES'S PLACE 342.80 294.00 376.00 Neutral Strong Buy 121 0.81





Media & Entertainment Over Valued


AEGIS GROUP 179.80 116.17 187.40 Neutral Sell 98 1.31

BLOOMSBURY PBL. 109.50 91.25 138.00 Neutral Buy 140 0.51

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP 635.50 618.50 850.00 Neutral Neutral 652 0.61

CENTAUR MEDIA 36.38 32.50 56.25 Neutral Sell -79 1.04

DAILY MAIL 'A' 443.10 343.40 505.50 Neutral Buy 496 1.09

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR 770.00 522.50 809.50 Neutral Sell 605 1.05

INFORMA 434.50 313.90 451.00 Neutral Sell 348 1.52ITE GROUP 221.00 157.70 258.00 Neutral Sell 182 1.42

ITV 85.50 51.65 89.90 Neutral Sell 81 1.52

JOHNSTON PRESS 6.32 4.11 8.18 Neutral Strong Buy 70 1.46

PEARSON 1135.00 1038.00 1255.00 Neutral Neutral 1161 0.66

PHOTO-ME INTL. 43.50 40.00 67.00 Neutral Strong Buy 89 0.86

PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON 275.50 165.88 292.00 Sell Sell 168 0.35

THOMSON REUTERS 28.02 26.21 39.25 Neutral Sell 9 0.51

STV GROUP 116.00 76.25 168.00 Neutral Sell 28 0.81

ST.IVES 77.25 68.50 102.25 Neutral Strong Buy 233 1.45

TRINITY MIRROR 36.75 35.25 54.25 Neutral Strong Buy 508 1.57

UBM 608.50 416.00 641.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1748 1.30

WILMINGTON GROUP 97.50 78.50 154.75 Neutral Buy 119 0.86

WPP 844.00 578.00 880.00 Neutral Neutral 891 1.29

YELL GROUP 3.72 3.35 11.00 Neutral Strong Buy 54 1.32

Mining Under Valued


ANGLO AMERICAN 2298.50 2138.50 3344.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5670 1.75

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP 302.50 237.90 340.00 Neutral Neutral 318 0.95

ANTOFAGASTA 1129.00 900.50 1491.00 Neutral Sell 1010 1.38

BHP BILLITON 1907.00 1667.00 2631.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4236 1.40

LONMIN 1012.00 941.00 1760.00 Neutral Sell 866 1.92

RANDGOLD RESOURCES 5155.00 4580.00 7565.00 Neutral Sell 1587 0.33

RIO TINTO 3460.00 2712.50 4595.00 Neutral Buy 4727 1.42

UK COAL 15.00 15.00 47.00 Neutral Sell -59 0.94

VEDANTA RESOURCES 1235.00 928.00 2467.00 Neutral Strong Buy 4700 2.10

XSTRATA 1112.00 764.00 1550.00 Neutral Sell 1023 1.78

Oil & Gas Under Valued


BG GROUP 1421.00 1144.00 1548.00 Neutral Buy 1965 0.70

BP 456.10 363.20 504.60 Neutral Strong Buy 1335 1.06

CAIRN ENERGY 334.90 291.86 515.11 Neutral Buy 415 1.36

FORTUNE OIL 10.25 9.00 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 24 0.86

HUNTING 920.00 530.00 968.00 Neutral Sell 809 1.30

JKX OIL & GAS 158.00 120.50 328.60 Neutral Strong Buy 377 1.36

MELROSE RESOURC ES 119.25 95.25 297.00 Neutral Strong Buy 659 1.14

PREMIER OIL 396.00 310.00 515.00 Neutral Buy 545 1.36

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A(LON) 2167.50 1883.50 2402.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6649 0.91

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B 2196.50 1890.50 2489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6710 0.92

SOCO INTERNATIONAL 302.10 278.00 397.50 Neutral Sell 204 0.47

TULLOW OIL 1492.00 945.50 1601.00 Neutral Sell 477 1.06

WOOD GROUP (JOHN) 721.50 469.90 763.50 Neutral Buy 803 1.36

Personal Care & Household Products Over Valued


MCBRIDE 125.00 108.75 151.06 Neutral Sell 103 0.87

PZ CUSSONS 315.20 285.00 387.90 Neutral Buy 365 0.74

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 3517.00 3100.00 3599.00 Neutral Sell 3243 0.34







Support Services Under Valued


ACAL 201.50 166.25 344.00 Neutral Strong Buy 354 0.94

AGGREKO 2163.00 1522.00 2316.00 Neutral Sell 1283 1.16

AMEC 1128.00 740.50 1207.00 Neutral Buy 1336 1.01

ASHTEAD GROUP 253.40 99.40 271.10 Neutral Sell 131 1.52

BABCOCK INTL. 815.00 570.50 828.00 Neutral Sell 729 0.56

BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS. 341.75 270.00 392.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1124 0.73

BUNZL 1005.00 676.50 1028.00 Neutral Neutral 1025 0.54UK MAIL GROUP 235.00 192.25 318.50 Neutral Strong Buy 564 0.34

CAPITA 723.00 611.50 767.00 Neutral Neutral 729 0.43

COMMUNISIS 33.00 23.75 39.75 Neutral Strong Buy 101 0.77

COMPASS GROUP 645.00 512.50 671.00 Neutral Buy 805 0.71

BERENDSEN 520.50 402.70 568.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1090 1.02

DE LA RUE 890.00 730.00 1001.00 Neutral Buy 1057 #NA

DIGNITY 831.00 705.00 854.50 Neutral Buy 1011 0.20

DIPLOMA 436.30 284.00 453.00 Neutral Buy 494 1.01

ELECTROCOMP. 237.60 182.20 294.90 Neutral Strong Buy 387 1.01

FILTRONA 476.10 296.30 479.10 Neutral Sell 445 1.11

G4S 269.60 219.90 292.10 Neutral Strong Buy 404 0.58

HAYS 82.80 58.85 119.60 Neutral Strong Buy 149 0.98

HOMESERVE 231.20 214.70 532.00 Neutral Strong Buy 484 0.65

INTERSERVE 276.40 252.75 341.25 Neutral Strong Buy 829 1.35

INTERTEK GROUP 2498.00 1744.00 2570.00 Neutral Sell 1681 0.86

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP 30.25 25.25 36.00 Neutral Strong Buy 70 1.14

MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP. 39.00 27.75 45.50 Neutral Strong Buy 59 0.68

MENZIES (JOHN) 604.00 445.50 614.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1274 1.47

MICHAEL PAGE INTL. 471.50 323.00 567.00 Neutral Neutral 454 1.35

MITIE GROUP 274.70 199.90 288.30 Neutral Strong Buy 420 0.61

MOUCHEL GROUP 7.65 4.75 86.75 Sell Sell -312 0.91

OFFICE2OFFICE 160.50 122.00 166.50 Neutral Strong Buy 298 0.39

PAYPOINT 655.00 434.50 670.00 Neutral Buy 758 0.72

PREMIER FARNELL 207.20 144.50 301.00 Neutral Strong Buy 366 1.18

REGUS 113.00 64.00 117.50 Neutral Sell 72 1.40

RENTOKIL INITIAL 85.75 58.20 100.90 Neutral Sell 52 1.30

REXAM 419.80 299.80 436.00 Neutral Buy 546 0.87

RICARDO 358.38 325.00 410.00 Neutral Strong Buy 567 0.82

ROBERT WALTERS 255.25 158.25 326.00 Neutral Buy 364 1.25

RPC GROUP 362.10 300.50 393.20 Neutral Buy 465 0.84

RPS GROUP 241.40 156.60 253.00 Neutral Buy 308 1.58

SERCO GROUP 541.50 458.00 597.50 Neutral Buy 699 0.57

SHANKS GROUP 97.20 90.80 130.90 Neutral Strong Buy 170 1.46

SPEEDY HIRE 27.00 18.50 34.00 Neutral Sell -8 1.31

TRIBAL GROUP 71.00 38.50 79.75 Neutral Sell -347 0.63

TRIFAST 42.88 36.25 52.88 Neutral Strong Buy 65 0.88

VP 247.00 191.00 258.00 Neutral Strong Buy 602 0.90

WYG 54.50 47.00 956.25 Sell Sell -9749 0.77

WSP GROUP 245.00 160.00 366.75 Neutral Strong Buy 597 0.95

Telecommunication Services Under Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BT GROUP 222.30 161.00 232.10 Neutral Buy 260 0.92

CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS. 32.13 31.25 48.92 Neutral Strong Buy 137 0.65

INMARSAT 437.60 389.30 620.00 Neutral Sell 361 0.53

KCOM GROUP 71.25 59.75 84.00 Neutral Buy 83 1.27

TELECOM PLUS 692.00 470.00 802.00 Neutral Sell 474 0.04

VODAFONE GROUP 171.95 155.05 182.70 Neutral Neutral 189 0.63





Transport Under Valued


BBA AVIATION 210.70 156.00 223.40 Neutral Sell 167 1.41

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS. 403.50 282.00 505.00 Neutral Strong Buy 663 0.94

CLARKSON 1350.00 1015.00 1367.00 Neutral Buy 1665 0.81

EASYJET 486.80 302.54 495.80 Neutral Buy 552 0.77

FIRST GROUP 213.90 213.90 370.20 Buy Strong Buy 423 1.08

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS 605.00 440.50 605.00 Neutral Sell 344 0.83

GO-AHEAD GROUP 1207.00 1190.00 1598.00 Neutral Buy 1807 0.94NATIONAL EXPRESS 236.50 201.60 270.20 Neutral Sell 182 1.28

NORTHGATE 200.00 190.90 346.70 Neutral Strong Buy 395 1.38

STAGECOACH GROUP 244.80 215.90 287.40 Neutral Sell 212 0.88

WINCANTON 61.50 56.00 123.25 Neutral Strong Buy 164 0.85

Utilities Under Valued


CENTRICA 312.50 278.80 333.00 Neutral Neutral 327 0.49

NATIONAL GRID 634.50 569.00 659.00 Neutral Buy 794 0.55

PENNON GROUP 701.50 620.00 737.50 Neutral Sell 596 0.59

SEVERN TRENT 1507.00 1375.00 1610.00 Neutral Sell 1361 0.46

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP 596.50 560.00 637.00 Neutral Neutral 606 0.58





DISCLAIMER

Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys (“Intellisys”) is the tradingname of Intelligent Analysis Limited.

Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possiblevalue of quoted company shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys’

reports are designed to present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative valueof a company and/or an actuarial sector or stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensiveas possible range of valuation tools and proprietary systems to derive its outputs. The basedata for the models are derived from sources believed to be accurate but Intelligent AnalysisLimited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the source data or itsmodels and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely upon theIntellisys’ research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice

specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under theFinancial Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.

Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of thisreport. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to theaccuracy or completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability isaccepted to the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions ormisstatements, negligent or otherwise. In no event will Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisysor any of its officers, employees or agents be liable to any other party for any direct, indirect,special or other consequential damages arising from the use of this report.

The Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) thepublication or availability of the Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information maybe prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the

Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this document, nor any copy inwhatever form of media, may be taken or transmitted into the United States, Canada,Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful todo so. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of relevant local

securities laws. Recipients of Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports outside theUK are not covered by the rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in the UK.

Any user distributing information taken from any Intelligent Analysis Limited or Intellisysreport and/or the Intellisys website, in whatever form, to any other person, agrees to attach a

copy of this Disclaimer and the Terms and Conditions of Use pages and obtain the agreementof such other person to comply with the terms set forth.

Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available tomarket counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.

No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire anyshares or other financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form

the basis of any contract entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument inany company.

Intelligent Analysis Limited believes that the information within each and any of its reports tobe correct, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness of

the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise.




Intelligent Analysis Limited (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or aconnected person may have positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the

securities mentioned within a report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell suchsecurities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal rules.

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may goup or down and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatoryauthority and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication isprovided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contactyour financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and youmay not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency,fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the incomefrom them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Documents

uk trading & value indicator 20120410