uk trading & value indicator 20120329

8/2/2019 uk trading & value indicator 20120329

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29 March 2012

UK Trading &

ValueIndicator


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Intellisys www.intellisys.uk.com 29 March 2012

Page 2 of 25 Intellisys 29 March 2012

Contents

Market Pictures - Indices ......................................................................... 5FTSE 100 ................................................................................................ 5FTSE 250 ................................................................................................ 6FTSE All Share Index ................................................................................ 7FTSE AIM All Share .................................................................................. 8

Market Pictures Interest Rates ............................................................ 10UK Bank Lending Rates ........................................................................... 10Eurozone Lending Rates .......................................................................... 11US Federal Funds Rate ........................................................................... 12

Market Pictures Exchange Rates ......................................................... 13Market Pictures - Oil............................................................................... 15Aerospace & Defence ............................................. Over Valued 16Automobiles & Parts .............................................. Over Valued 16Banks ............................................................. Under Valued 16Beverages ........................................................ Over Valued 16Chemicals ........................................................ Under Valued 16Construction & Building Materials .............................. Over Valued 17Electronics & Electrical Equipment ............................. Over Valued 17Engineering & Machinery ........................................ Over Valued 17Food & Drug Stores ............................................... Under Valued 18Food Producers & Processors ................................... Over Valued 18General Retail ..................................................... Over Valued 18Health .............................................................. Under Valued 18Household Goods & Textiles .................................... Under Valued 18Information Technology & Hardware .......................... Over Valued 19Insurance ........................................................ Over Valued 19Leisure & Hotels .................................................. Under Valued 19Life Assurance .................................................. Over Valued 19Media & Entertainment .......................................... Over Valued 20Mining .............................................................. Under Valued 20Oil & Gas ........................................................... Under Valued 20Personal Care & Household Products .......................... Over Valued 20Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology .............................. Under Valued 21Software & Computer Services ................................. Under Valued 21Speciality & Other Finance

......................................

Over Valued21

Support Services .................................................. Under Valued 22Telecommunication Services .................................... Under Valued 22Transport ........................................................ Under Valued 23Utilities ............................................................. Under Valued 23DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................. 24


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IntroductionThe overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guidethat will identify those shares that merit their investment attention in anincreasingly time critical and information noisy trading environment.

The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box,

typically, before the official open of the London Stock Markets.

Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of aninvestment are the two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.

TimingIntellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key

factors that influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters,these have been established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cutthrough the daily investment noise.

Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimentalfactors as well as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters(analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment meetings.

From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage,the trading indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate inidentifying good trading points as well as some 74% accurate for overall trend

correlation.

The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40stocks analysed.

Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores

Source: Intellisys

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Best Buy/Sell Trend


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Value

A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices.On a daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from notonly the Profit & Loss Account but also the Balance Sheet and Cash flow

Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.

Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his

investment research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment

valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.

The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the

Target as realistically valid as possible.

Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only a

function of market levels but a management teams ability to establish andmaintain a value generating operating environment set against a constantlychanging global background.

The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to startwith a modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that

are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we useas many valuation methodologies as possible.

Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange orextreme. However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them

as starting points to challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion ofa stock.

In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist

investors from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised bymanagement cults.

ConclusionNo investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading andinvestment systems active position monitoring is critical for maximisedinvestment performance.

Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunctionwith, and not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well asdiscussing investment options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish ([email protected])

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated

in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


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Market Pictures - Indices

FTSE 100

Index PE

3,512.1

3,762.9

4,944.4

5,809.0

6,082.9

6,091.3

6,732.4

2000 4000 6000 8000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100

7.0

7.9

7.9

9.8

14.1

18.2

18.2

5 10 15 20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 PE

% change % change

1M -2.0; 3M 5.5; 12M -1.6 1M -2.5; 3M -1.3; 12M -28.3

Yield RSI

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.6

3.9

5.5

6.2

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 DY

25.5

37.9

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 100 RSI

% change

1M 6.6; 3M -1.9; 12M 16.7


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FTSE 250

Index PE

5,491.5

6,224.3

9,425.9

11,589.7

12,167.8

12,167.8

12,220.2

500 5500 10500 15500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250

7.1

7.1

7.1

19.0

19.5

27.8

27.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 PE

% change % change

1M 0.5; 3M 15.7; 12M -0.4 1M 11.6; 3M 25.7; 12M 11.3

Yield RSI

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.7

3.3

4.3

5.7

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 DY

25.6

50.1

83.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 250 RSI

% change

1M 2.2; 3M -12.7; 12M 15.1


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FTSE All Share Index

Index PE

1,781.6

1,906.8

2,557.8

3,022.4

3,160.9

3,160.9

3,479.0

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE

7.4

8.5

8.5

10.6

14.6

19.5

19.5

5 10 15 20 25

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE PE

% change % change

1M -1.6; 3M 7.0; 12M -1.5 1M -1.3; 3M 1.4; 12M -25.1

Yield RSI

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.4

3.8

5.3

6.1

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE DY

25.4

40.0

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE RSI

% change

1M 5.6; 3M -3.9; 12M 15.5


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FTSE AIM All Share

Index PE

373.8

412.3

657.8

796.9

921.6

968.3

1,236.6

200 700 1200 1700

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

148.1

304.6

1,240.8

1,439.5

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE PE

% change % change

1M -3.7; 3M 15.9; 12M -12.0 1M 50.2; 3M 58.0; 12M -143.1

Yield RSI

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.9

2.1

0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE DY

16.5

44.7

91.9

0 50 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE RSI

% change

1M 9.8; 3M -8.2; 12M 17.5


9/25




S&P 500

Index PE

676.5

787.5

1,099.2

1,405.5

1,416.5

1,416.5

1,565.2

400 900 1400 1900

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE

13.4

13.4

13.4

16.2

17.5

146.3

146.3

10 60 110 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE PE

% change % change

1M 2.4; 3M 12.5; 12M 7.3 1M 3.7; 3M 11.1; 12M -3.9

Yield RSI

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.7

3.4

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE DY

30.0

60.4

81.6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE RSI

% change

1M -1.4; 3M -6.8; 12M 6.2


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Market Pictures Interest Rates

UK Bank Lending Rates

UK

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

5.75

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

UK Lending PE

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

17.4

10 60 110 160 210

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE PE


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Eurozone Lending Rates

Eurozone

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.25

2.50

5.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

Eurozone Lending PE

57.1

57.1

57.1

57.1

44.4

40.0

19.0

10 20 30 40 50 60

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE - PE


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US Federal Funds Rate

US

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.14

0.17

0.25

5.41

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

% change

1M 40.0; 3M 100.0; 12M 7.7

US Lending PE

2,500.0

2,500.0

2,500.0

714.3

588.2

400.0

18.5

10 510 1010 1510 2010 2510 3010

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - PE


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.37

1.42

1.53

1.59

1.67

1.70

2.11

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/

% change

1M 0.1; 3M 2.5; 12M -1.0

/

1.02

1.07

1.11

1.19

1.21

1.24

1.50

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EURO/

% change

1M 1.1; 3M -0.2; 12M 5.1


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.19

1.19

1.27

1.33

1.48

1.51

1.60

0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/EURO

% change

1M -1.1; 3M 2.9; 12M -5.4

/

117.1

117.1

117.1

131.4

139.4

162.5

250.1

100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

YEN/

% change

1M 3.0; 3M 9.0; 12M 0.4


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Market Pictures - Oil

Brent Monthly FOB US$/bbl

34.6

46.3

104.0

124.5

126.6

126.6

145.6

0 50 100 150 200

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

Oil (Brent) Monthly FOB U$/bbl

% change

1M 0.49; 3M 14.72; 12M 7.41


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


16/25



Aerospace & Defence Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BAE SYSTEMS 301.00 248.10 340.80 Neutral Strong Buy 610 0.65

CHEMRING GROUP 405.30 368.80 712.00 Neutral Buy 592 0.53

COBHAM 223.50 165.90 236.50 Neutral Neutral 243 0.92

MEGGITT 398.00 305.00 408.30 Neutral Sell 350 1.34

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS 824.00 552.19 842.50 Neutral Sell 679 1.10

SMITHS GROUP 1033.00 869.50 1340.00 Neutral Neutral 1059 0.72

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG. 1727.00 1305.00 1779.00 Neutral Sell 1290 0.60

UMECO 388.00 243.50 499.88 Neutral Sell 345 0.79

Automobiles & Parts Over Valued


GKN 207.10 157.00 245.00 Neutral Sell 164 1.98

INCHCAPE 385.10 268.60 425.40 Neutral Sell 313 1.42

LOOKERS 63.25 47.00 72.75 Neutral Neutral 65 1.36

PENDRAGON 13.50 6.80 19.71 Neutral Strong Buy 22 1.14

Banks Under Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BARCLAYS 245.60 138.85 308.85 Neutral Strong Buy 427 1.85

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50) 561.40 463.50 667.20 Neutral Strong Buy 1086 1.13

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP 34.43 21.84 62.36 Sell Strong Buy 88 1.76

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP. 28.61 17.34 44.43 Sell Sell 11 1.28

STANDARD CHARTERED 1580.50 1169.50 1690.00 Neutral Sell 795 1.70

Beverages Over Valued


BARR (AG) 1230.00 1031.00 1395.00 Neutral Neutral 1272 0.41

DIAGEO 1527.00 1112.00 1553.00 Neutral Sell 1361 0.55

SABMILLER 2538.00 1979.00 2660.00 Neutral Buy 2945 0.98

Chemicals Under Valued


CRODA INTERNATIONAL 2115.00 1597.00 2238.00 Neutral Sell 1700 1.08

ELEMENTIS 185.10 107.50 196.10 Neutral Neutral 178 1.08

JOHNSON MATTHEY 2292.00 1523.00 2403.00 Neutral Neutral 2480 1.47

VICTREX 1335.00 1025.00 1590.00 Neutral Neutral 1386 1.23

YULE CATTO 246.30 148.00 253.00 Neutral Buy 349 1.28

ZOTEFOAMS 186.50 109.00 186.50 Sell Buy 237 1.04


17/25



Construction & Building Materials Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BALFOUR BEATTY 297.40 214.60 345.10 Neutral Neutral 323 0.85

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS 146.20 67.50 151.50 Neutral Sell 72 1.43

BELLWAY 835.00 540.50 859.50 Neutral Sell 715 1.02

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE) 1328.00 1019.00 1414.00 Neutral Neutral 1367 0.69

BOVIS HOMES GROUP 500.50 326.50 518.50 Neutral Sell 218 1.08

CARILLION 302.80 281.00 403.20 Neutral Buy 388 1.10

CLARKE (T) 51.38 35.50 105.00 Neutral Strong Buy 211 0.83COSTAIN GROUP 226.50 180.00 262.00 Neutral Strong Buy 821 0.59

GALLIFORD TRY 619.00 368.00 628.00 Neutral Neutral 593 1.05

KELLER 455.00 239.25 671.50 Neutral Neutral 450 1.33

KIER GROUP 1168.00 1097.00 1489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3346 1.04

LOW & BONAR 61.75 38.00 76.75 Neutral Strong Buy 154 1.10

MARSHALLS 103.62 83.25 124.50 Neutral Sell 73 1.35

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP 675.00 510.00 725.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1534 0.89

PERSIMMON 656.50 374.00 706.50 Neutral Neutral 658 1.10

REDROW 129.00 103.50 135.30 Neutral Sell 93 0.97

SIG 119.20 76.95 153.50 Neutral Sell 15 1.60

TAYLOR WIMPEY 52.35 28.71 52.75 Neutral Sell 14 1.51

TRAVIS PERKINS 1094.00 715.00 1112.00 Neutral Neutral 1147 1.89

WOLSELEY 2445.00 1404.00 2558.00 Neutral Sell 1870 1.42

Electronics & Electrical Equipment Over Valued


DIALIGHT 900.50 643.50 921.00 Neutral Sell 438 0.75

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES 562.50 434.30 701.50 Neutral Buy 681 1.18

E2V TECHNOLOGIES 125.75 86.75 146.50 Neutral Buy 151 1.34

INVENSYS 200.00 180.90 354.90 Neutral Strong Buy 374 1.47

LAIRD 217.60 127.90 217.60 Neutral Sell 194 2.21

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS 1220.00 700.00 1262.00 Neutral Sell 794 0.98

RENISHAW 1291.00 800.00 1886.00 Neutral Buy 1896 1.28

SPECTRIS 1813.00 1039.00 1835.00 Neutral Sell 1170 1.43

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES 0.22 0.14 0.28 Neutral Strong Buy 1 0.63

TT ELECTRONICS 169.25 120.50 208.00 Neutral Buy 236 1.60

XAAR 245.00 212.00 295.00 Neutral Sell 122 1.12

Engineering & Machinery Over Valued


AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP 91.00 62.50 128.00 Neutral Strong Buy 270 1.33

BODYCOTE 388.80 225.60 426.50 Neutral Sell 321 1.60

CASTINGS 308.00 252.50 358.00 Neutral Strong Buy 466 0.98

COOKSON GROUP 697.00 395.80 724.50 Neutral Neutral 699 2.29

FENNER 437.70 280.00 483.70 Neutral Neutral 417 1.41

HALMA 386.70 306.30 429.60 Neutral Sell 330 0.76

HILL & SMITH 342.00 235.00 393.50 Neutral Strong Buy 532 1.42

IMI 969.00 636.50 1119.00 Neutral Buy 1224 1.42

METALRAX GROUP 8.75 7.25 12.00 Neutral Sell 6 0.86

MORGAN C RUCIBLE 324.70 224.00 360.00 Neutral Neutral 309 1.76

ROTORK 1975.00 1501.00 2099.00 Neutral Sell 1582 1.00

SENIOR 195.00 135.60 201.00 Neutral Buy 216 1.77

SEVERFIELD-ROWEN 183.75 150.00 272.00 Neutral Sell 158 1.06

SPIRAX-SARCO 2072.00 1649.00 2184.00 Neutral Neutral 2015 0.86

VITEC GROUP 645.00 488.00 661.75 Neutral Neutral 675 1.52

WEIR GROUP 1753.00 1375.00 2236.00 Neutral Sell 1429 1.39


18/25



Food & Drug Stores Under Valued


GREGGS 514.00 445.00 558.00 Neutral Sell 324 0.53

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 303.10 268.50 328.00 Neutral Buy 365 0.46

SAINSBURY (J) 313.90 263.50 362.80 Neutral Strong Buy 558 0.65

TESCO 336.75 310.45 420.05 Neutral Buy 422 0.74

THORNTONS 25.63 9.50 85.50 Sell Neutral 26 0.78

Food Producers & Processors Over Valued


ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 1219.00 977.00 1228.00 Neutral Sell 1013 0.60

CRANSWICK 812.00 588.50 841.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1513 0.59

DAIRY CREST 338.00 311.00 409.70 Neutral Strong Buy 726 0.94

DEVRO 308.00 232.00 332.20 Neutral Strong Buy 664 0.32

PREMIER FOODS 18.00 3.29 35.12 Neutral Sell -28 1.42

TATE & LYLE 704.50 544.50 720.50 Neutral Buy 818 0.63

UNILEVER (UK) 2053.00 1885.00 2189.00 Neutral Sell 1001 0.61

General Retail Over Valued


ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS 21.88 16.00 25.25 Neutral Buy 30 0.72

BROWN (N) GROUP 238.20 227.00 304.50 Neutral Neutral 259 0.49

BURBERRY GROUP 1508.00 1092.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 541 1.36

CARPETRIGHT 700.00 375.00 741.00 Sell Sell 208 1.03

CLINTON CARDS 10.25 7.50 22.50 Sell Sell 10 0.65

DIXONS RETAIL 19.26 9.36 19.91 Neutral Buy 28 1.46

FINDEL 3.61 2.20 8.70 Neutral Sell 3 0.97

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP 47.25 36.00 111.00 Neutral Strong Buy 101 0.93

HALFORDS GROUP 307.50 269.50 405.90 Neutral Buy 420 0.64

JJB SPORTS 10.00 5.20 31.00 Sell Strong Buy 1173 0.87

JD SPORTS FASHION 775.00 570.00 1030.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1215 0.49

KESA ELECTRICALS 73.70 60.20 151.40 Neutral Strong Buy 291 1.27KINGFISHER 309.80 217.00 312.70 Neutral Sell 291 0.99

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP 384.20 301.80 402.20 Neutral Neutral 398 0.74

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP 48.25 25.50 48.25 Sell Sell 21 1.05

MOTHERCARE 178.25 127.30 452.00 Neutral Strong Buy 369 0.55

NEXT 3009.00 1980.00 3014.00 Neutral Sell 2172 0.80

TED BAKER 814.00 633.00 830.00 Neutral Sell 479 0.55

TOPPS TILES 38.00 21.50 77.00 Neutral Sell 23 1.34

Health Under Valued


CONSORT MEDICAL 627.00 498.00 630.00 Neutral Sell 423 0.40CORIN GROUP 41.00 36.50 59.00 Neutral Buy 49 0.75

SMITH & NEPHEW 633.50 521.00 715.00 Neutral Buy 776 0.37

Household Goods & Textiles Under Valued


HARVARD INTL. 38.63 21.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 30 0.47

GAMES WORKSHOP 577.50 370.00 577.50 Neutral Sell 493 0.38

HEADLAM GROUP 300.38 233.25 310.00 Neutral Buy 345 0.93

HORNBY 97.50 97.00 145.00 Neutral Buy 144 0.65


19/25



Information Technology & Hardware Over Valued


ARM HOLDINGS 600.00 464.00 645.00 Neutral Sell 414 0.76

CSR 240.00 154.10 391.40 Neutral Strong Buy 620 1.18

FILTRONIC 33.75 14.50 35.00 Sell Strong Buy 61 0.65

IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES 694.00 296.90 717.00 Neutral Sell 266 0.97

PSION 59.50 41.00 102.75 Neutral Strong Buy 350 1.20

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS 158.70 105.80 160.30 Neutral Strong Buy 387 1.02

WOLFSON MIC ROELECTRONIC S 186.00 96.00 260.00 Neutral Sell 84 1.06

Insurance Over Valued


ADMIRAL GROUP 1161.00 787.00 1754.00 Neutral Sell -8469 0.54

AMLIN 336.90 270.60 427.00 Neutral Strong Buy 7172 0.47

BEAZLEY 143.00 109.60 151.80 Neutral Strong Buy 2337 0.52

CATLIN GROUP 418.00 336.00 449.00 Neutral Sell 85 0.31

HISCOX 396.10 340.50 424.70 Neutral Strong Buy 6471 0.50

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON 694.00 576.00 764.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4470 0.33

RSA INSURANCE GROUP 107.10 99.60 139.80 Neutral Strong Buy 2762 0.44

NOVAE GROUP 376.25 285.00 385.25 Neutral Strong Buy 6212 0.51

Leisure & Hotels Under Valued


ARENA LEISURE 44.13 27.25 44.25 Neutral Sell 17 0.79

CARNIVAL 2027.00 1742.00 2642.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3840 1.07

ENTERPRISE INNS 56.50 26.50 96.15 Neutral Strong Buy 93 1.74

TUI TRAVEL 197.40 136.70 250.00 Neutral Strong Buy 592 0.97

FULLER SMITH 'A' 725.00 596.00 752.00 Neutral Neutral 692 0.45

GREENE KING 513.50 410.00 523.50 Neutral Buy 725 0.87

LADBROKES 159.60 114.00 161.80 Neutral Buy 193 0.99

ICTL.HTLS.GP. 1445.00 955.00 1497.00 Neutral Sell 978 1.31

MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS. 484.40 371.20 540.00 Neutral Neutral 509 1.41

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS 274.30 215.60 336.80 Neutral Strong Buy 444 1.04BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM. 146.20 100.60 204.00 Buy Neutral 139 1.30

PUNCH TAVERNS 10.75 9.14 15.70 Neutral Sell -135 1.30

RANK GROUP 129.50 109.50 153.70 Neutral Strong Buy 209 0.98

RESTAURANT GROUP 294.70 254.90 335.00 Neutral Buy 366 0.87

WETHERSPOON (JD) 411.00 380.50 468.30 Neutral Strong Buy 705 0.73

WHITBREAD 1849.00 1409.00 1849.00 Sell Neutral 1900 1.05

WILLIAM HILL 258.80 179.30 258.80 Neutral Buy 324 0.95

MARSTON'S 98.15 84.60 112.00 Neutral Strong Buy 201 1.25

Life Assurance Over Valued


AVIVA 336.60 275.30 452.70 Neutral Strong Buy 435 1.24CHESNARA 185.00 161.75 264.00 Neutral Neutral 177 0.59

LEGAL & GENERAL 132.50 89.80 135.00 Neutral Buy 83 1.67

OLD MUTUAL 158.00 98.05 164.60 Neutral Sell 160 1.64

PRUDENTIAL 768.50 509.00 797.50 Neutral Sell 316 1.73

ST.JAMES'S PLACE 356.60 294.00 376.00 Neutral Strong Buy 121 0.81


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Media & Entertainment Over Valued


AEGIS GROUP 181.30 116.17 185.90 Neutral Sell 101 1.32

BLOOMSBURY PBL. 110.50 91.25 138.00 Neutral Buy 143 0.50

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP 673.00 618.50 850.00 Neutral Neutral 671 0.61

CENTAUR MEDIA 38.25 32.50 56.25 Neutral Sell -78 1.03

DAILY MAIL 'A' 454.70 343.40 505.50 Neutral Buy 512 1.09

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR 779.00 522.50 809.50 Neutral Sell 622 1.06

INFORMA 447.40 313.90 450.80 Neutral Sell 359 1.52ITE GROUP 227.60 157.70 258.00 Neutral Sell 187 1.40

ITV 87.40 51.65 89.90 Neutral Neutral 83 1.52

JOHNSTON PRESS 6.50 4.11 8.95 Neutral Strong Buy 72 1.47

PEARSON 1200.00 1038.00 1255.00 Neutral Neutral 1193 0.68

PHOTO-ME INTL. 46.50 39.50 67.00 Neutral Strong Buy 91 0.84

PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON 283.50 158.00 292.00 Sell Sell 173 0.35

THOMSON REUTERS 29.35 26.21 39.25 Neutral Sell 9 0.51

STV GROUP 117.25 76.25 168.00 Neutral Sell 30 0.80

ST.IVES 83.50 68.50 104.50 Neutral Strong Buy 239 1.45

TRINITY MIRROR 38.50 35.25 54.25 Neutral Strong Buy 521 1.57

UBM 627.00 416.00 635.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1801 1.31

WILMINGTON GROUP 97.75 78.50 157.00 Neutral Buy 123 0.87

WPP 862.50 578.00 880.00 Neutral Neutral 916 1.29

YELL GROUP 3.87 3.35 11.00 Neutral Strong Buy 56 1.31

Mining Under Valued


ANGLO AMERICAN 2347.00 2138.50 3344.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5835 1.76

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP 329.00 237.90 340.00 Neutral Neutral 329 0.95

ANTOFAGASTA 1118.00 900.50 1491.00 Neutral Sell 1040 1.39

BHP BILLITON 1885.00 1667.00 2631.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4340 1.41

LONMIN 1053.00 941.00 1760.00 Neutral Sell 891 1.92

RANDGOLD RESOURCES 5490.00 4567.00 7565.00 Neutral Sell 1628 0.31

RIO TINTO 3316.00 2712.50 4595.00 Neutral Buy 4858 1.43

UK COAL 18.00 18.00 47.00 Neutral Sell -60 0.96

VEDANTA RESOURCES 1232.00 928.00 2518.00 Neutral Strong Buy 4850 2.10

XSTRATA 1068.50 764.00 1550.00 Neutral Neutral 1054 1.79

Oil & Gas Under Valued


BG GROUP 1450.00 1144.00 1564.50 Neutral Buy 1972 0.71

BP 468.10 363.20 504.60 Neutral Strong Buy 1345 1.06

CAIRN ENERGY 332.40 291.86 531.75 Neutral Buy 419 1.35

FORTUNE OIL 10.50 9.00 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 25 0.85

HUNTING 941.00 530.00 968.00 Neutral Sell 815 1.33

JKX OIL & GAS 157.75 120.50 331.40 Neutral Strong Buy 381 1.36

MELROSE RESOURC ES 126.00 95.25 297.00 Neutral Strong Buy 663 1.13

PREMIER OIL 394.70 310.00 520.50 Buy Buy 548 1.36

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A(LON) 2216.00 1883.50 2402.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6705 0.91

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B 2225.50 1890.50 2489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6767 0.92

SOCO INTERNATIONAL 298.50 278.00 400.00 Neutral Sell 204 0.51

TULLOW OIL 1511.00 945.50 1601.00 Neutral Sell 481 1.06

WOOD GROUP (JOHN) 711.50 469.90 763.50 Neutral Buy 810 1.34

Personal Care & Household Products Over Valued


MCBRIDE 120.00 108.75 151.06 Neutral Sell 94 0.88

PZ CUSSONS 296.80 285.00 387.90 Neutral Buy 355 0.75

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 3522.00 3100.00 3599.00 Neutral Sell 3212 0.34


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Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Under Valued


ARK THERAPEUTICS GP. 3.60 3.13 5.35 Buy Sell -7 0.95

ASTRAZENECA 2806.00 2543.50 3194.00 Neutral Strong Buy 10526 0.45

BTG 339.40 226.00 365.00 Neutral Sell 221 0.72

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS 494.00 433.00 579.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1890 0.30

GLAXOSMITHKLINE 1422.50 1184.00 1497.00 Neutral Buy 1932 0.48

OXFORD BIOMEDICA 3.12 2.88 7.20 Buy Strong Buy 15 0.60

PHYTOPHARM 7.80 6.40 9.50 Buy Sell 2 0.92SHIRE 2140.00 1791.00 2300.00 Neutral Sell 1944 0.62

SKYEPHARMA 40.00 31.00 66.13 Neutral Strong Buy 276 0.72

VERNALIS 23.75 18.75 49.00 Neutral Strong Buy 93 0.82

Software & Computer Services Under Valued


TIMEWEAVE 22.50 21.75 27.00 Neutral Strong Buy 50 0.72

ANITE 120.75 57.75 128.00 Neutral Sell 65 0.84

AVEVA GROUP 1683.00 1298.00 1799.00 Neutral Sell 991 1.46

COMPUTACENTER 436.40 324.70 490.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1146 1.09

KOFAX 305.00 225.00 535.00 Neutral Neutral 303 1.09

INNOVATION GROUP 20.25 16.00 23.00 Neutral Neutral 20 0.90LOGICA 100.00 58.95 144.80 Neutral Strong Buy 224 1.37

MIC RO FOC US INTL. 452.40 242.90 471.20 Neutral Neutral 488 0.74

MISYS 357.20 214.90 420.20 Neutral Buy 444 1.33

PHOENIX IT GROUP 195.25 154.75 262.75 Neutral Strong Buy 512 0.88

RM 81.25 41.50 156.63 Neutral Sell -22 0.47

FIDESSA GROUP 1639.00 1444.00 2109.00 Neutral Neutral 1796 0.81

SAGE GROUP 300.00 231.70 312.40 Neutral Neutral 329 0.64

Speciality & Other Finance Over Valued


ABERDEEN ASSET MAN. 256.80 167.80 265.80 Neutral Sell 180 1.09

BREWIN DOLPHIN 169.40 113.70 176.50 Neutral Sell 133 0.72CAMELLIA 9575.00 8800.00 10950.00 Neutral Strong Buy 18524 0.86

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP 293.25 240.00 350.00 Neutral Neutral 313 0.95

CHARLES TAYLOR CNSL. 146.00 115.63 160.50 Neutral Strong Buy 229 0.72

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP 790.00 590.00 845.00 Neutral Sell 395 0.82

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT 67.50 56.05 81.70 Neutral Buy 88 0.92

HELPHIRE GROUP 1.85 1.36 14.87 Neutral Sell 0 0.67

HENDERSON GROUP 126.80 95.05 173.10 Neutral Sell 103 1.43

ICAP 394.60 311.60 541.50 Neutral Sell 343 1.08

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP. 281.60 197.90 345.00 Neutral Neutral 302 1.65

INVESTEC 386.40 318.40 522.00 Neutral Sell 312 1.56

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP 1015.00 756.50 1076.00 Neutral Sell 818 1.17

MAN GROUP 133.30 104.50 259.60 Neutral Buy 164 1.27

RATHBONE BROTHERS 1278.00 977.00 1316.00 Neutral Neutral 1240 0.75

SCHRODERS 1576.00 1183.00 1906.00 Neutral Neutral 1718 1.33

SCHRODERS NV 1241.00 970.00 1554.00 Neutral Buy 1718 1.32


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Support Services Under Valued


ACAL 213.00 166.25 344.00 Neutral Strong Buy 360 0.93

AGGREKO 2228.00 1522.00 2316.00 Neutral Sell 1310 1.18

AMEC 1113.00 740.50 1207.00 Neutral Buy 1360 1.03

ASHTEAD GROUP 257.00 99.40 271.10 Neutral Sell 135 1.50

BABCOCK INTL. 797.50 570.50 800.00 Neutral Sell 744 0.55

BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS. 345.00 270.00 392.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1142 0.72

BUNZL 1005.00 676.50 1013.00 Sell Neutral 1043 0.56UK MAIL GROUP 256.50 192.25 318.50 Neutral Strong Buy 574 0.32

CAPITA 741.00 611.50 767.00 Neutral Neutral 743 0.45

COMMUNISIS 34.88 23.75 39.75 Neutral Strong Buy 103 0.75

COMPASS GROUP 653.00 512.50 668.00 Neutral Buy 819 0.74

BERENDSEN 530.00 402.70 568.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1114 1.04

DE LA RUE 917.50 730.00 1001.00 Neutral Buy 1075 #NA

DIGNITY 814.00 693.00 854.50 Neutral Buy 1023 0.21

DIPLOMA 429.00 284.00 432.40 Neutral Buy 504 1.01

ELECTROCOMP. 252.80 182.20 294.90 Neutral Strong Buy 394 1.03

FILTRONA 466.20 296.30 470.60 Sell Neutral 453 1.13

G4S 274.50 219.90 292.10 Neutral Strong Buy 412 0.60

HAYS 84.80 58.85 119.60 Neutral Strong Buy 151 0.99

HOMESERVE 239.10 214.70 532.00 Neutral Strong Buy 493 0.65

INTERSERVE 298.90 252.75 341.25 Neutral Strong Buy 843 1.36

INTERTEK GROUP 2492.00 1744.00 2526.00 Neutral Sell 1712 0.87

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP 30.75 25.25 36.00 Neutral Strong Buy 71 1.16

MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP. 39.25 27.75 45.50 Neutral Strong Buy 60 0.67

MENZIES (JOHN) 603.50 445.50 614.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1293 1.46

MICHAEL PAGE INTL. 480.00 323.00 567.00 Neutral Neutral 462 1.37

MITIE GROUP 284.10 196.10 288.30 Neutral Strong Buy 427 0.61

MOUCHEL GROUP 10.75 4.75 100.25 Sell Sell -316 0.92

OFFICE2OFFICE 160.50 122.00 166.50 Neutral Strong Buy 304 0.38

PAYPOINT 617.50 410.00 638.00 Neutral Buy 772 0.75

PREMIER FARNELL 213.00 144.50 301.00 Neutral Strong Buy 373 1.20

REGUS 115.00 64.00 117.70 Neutral Sell 74 1.42

RENTOKIL INITIAL 84.65 58.20 100.90 Neutral Sell 53 1.31

REXAM 430.50 299.80 436.00 Neutral Buy 559 0.88

RICARDO 351.75 325.00 410.00 Neutral Strong Buy 577 0.82

ROBERT WALTERS 253.75 158.25 326.00 Neutral Buy 370 1.23

RPC GROUP 381.00 281.00 393.20 Neutral Buy 474 0.82

RPS GROUP 243.50 156.60 253.00 Neutral Buy 315 1.59

SERCO GROUP 548.50 458.00 597.50 Neutral Buy 711 0.59

SHANKS GROUP 99.70 90.80 130.90 Neutral Strong Buy 174 1.47

SPEEDY HIRE 28.75 18.50 34.00 Neutral Sell -8 1.31

TRIBAL GROUP 79.75 36.75 79.75 Neutral Sell -356 0.62

TRIFAST 46.00 36.25 52.88 Neutral Buy 67 0.88

VP 246.00 191.00 258.00 Neutral Strong Buy 615 0.90

WYG 54.00 47.00 956.25 Sell Sell -9726 0.77

WSP GROUP 268.00 160.00 375.00 Neutral Strong Buy 608 0.96

Telecommunication Services Under Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BT GROUP 227.60 161.00 232.10 Neutral Buy 262 0.93

CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS. 32.28 31.25 48.92 Neutral Strong Buy 139 0.65

INMARSAT 459.30 389.30 628.50 Neutral Sell 370 0.53

KCOM GROUP 69.80 58.50 84.00 Neutral Buy 84 1.26

TELECOM PLUS 689.00 452.25 802.00 Neutral Sell 472 0.04

VODAFONE GROUP 173.70 155.05 182.70 Neutral Buy 191 0.62


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Transport Under Valued


BBA AVIATION 216.30 156.00 223.40 Neutral Sell 178 1.40

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS. 417.50 282.00 505.00 Neutral Strong Buy 692 0.95

CLARKSON 1310.00 1015.00 1355.00 Neutral Buy 1681 0.82

EASYJET 489.10 302.54 495.80 Neutral Buy 579 0.78

FIRST GROUP 289.10 282.50 370.20 Neutral Strong Buy 455 1.08

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS 600.00 440.50 605.00 Neutral Sell 364 0.82

GO-AHEAD GROUP 1301.00 1190.00 1598.00 Neutral Buy 1891 0.95NATIONAL EXPRESS 252.00 201.60 270.20 Neutral Sell 195 1.30

NORTHGATE 215.80 190.90 346.70 Neutral Strong Buy 411 1.38

STAGECOACH GROUP 263.10 215.90 287.40 Neutral Sell 222 0.90

WINCANTON 78.00 56.00 123.25 Neutral Strong Buy 179 0.84

Utilities Under Valued


CENTRICA 313.30 278.80 333.00 Neutral Neutral 328 0.50

NATIONAL GRID 631.00 569.00 659.00 Neutral Buy 801 0.56

PENNON GROUP 712.00 620.00 737.50 Neutral Sell 603 0.61

SEVERN TRENT 1540.00 1375.00 1610.00 Neutral Sell 1377 0.47

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP 602.50 560.00 637.00 Neutral Neutral 614 0.58


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