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UK Market
Update
By Abdel Eljidi
2Excellence in Market Intelligence
EU Legislation Timeline
All new
building are
zero energy
Eco-design of
Boiler and
Water Heater
Zero energy
target on
existing
buildings
Financial
instrument for
energy efficiency
Common calculation
methodology for energy
performance; definition of
net zero building
RES
Directive
Building
regulations include
min. renewable
energy level
Eco-design of Room
Heating, Hot Air
Central Heating,
Solid Fuel Heater.
SPF calculation
of heat pump
National target of
energy from
renewable sourcesEPBD
ESD
dfe 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 20142011 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Energy
saving targetEco-design
of Air
Conditioner
National
RAP
Eco-design of
motor and
circulator
agreed
National min.
energy performance
requirements
EPBD 2 fully
implemented
National
EEAP
Key: Official – in red; Prediction – in blue
3Excellence in Market Intelligence
Energy Market
3
• Gas is the main fuel for electricity generation
• Gasification accounts for over 90%
• Energy is the most deregulated market in Europe
Source: DECC
4Excellence in Market Intelligence
Energy Prices
Evolution of domestic energy prices in € per kWh, between 2000 and
2009
NB. Average prices excluding taxes
Source : Eurostat
5Excellence in Market Intelligence
Diversified Market
Renewables
Specialists
Heating
Heat
emitters
Air
conditioning
M-CHP
Heat
Pumps
Gas HP
New comers: Utilities
New comers:
Energy Mgt, IT, Coms
6Excellence in Market Intelligence
Diversified Market
Renewables
Ren. Specialists
Air cond.
Ventilation
Specialists
Heat emitters
Boiler/ WH
IT, Coms. Energy Mg
UtilitiesGas HP
M-CHP
E-HP
7Excellence in Market Intelligence
Market at Cross Roads
EU Legislation
Energy Distributors
Competition
Energy cost
Smart Meters
Innovation
Consumer Attitudes
National Legislation
8Excellence in Market Intelligence
From Incentives to Legislation
… prove it!
• Switch to condensing boilers has been swift
• Incentives favour solar PV
• Renewable Heat Incentive – a catalyst for growth?
9Excellence in Market Intelligence
Phase 1: Growth of Asia heat pumps
9
partner
CO2 heat
pump
launched in
Japan
dfe 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2009 2010
European
monobloc
Switzerland,
Sweden
and France
Estia, France
unit
2006 2007
Ecodan
2005
CO2 unit in
Sweden
acquire
split unit with
own hydrabox
external unit
?
Altherma
Aquafree
10Excellence in Market Intelligence
Phase 2: Invasion of gas solutions – also
from Asia
10
partner
CO2 heat
pump
launched in
Japan
dfe 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2009 2010
European
monobloc
Switzerland,
Sweden
and France
Estia, France
unit
2006 2007
Ecodan
2005
CO2 unit in
Sweden
acquire
split unit with
own hydrabox
external unit
?
Altherma
Aquafree
dfe 2009/10
– 10
2012 2015 2017 20202019
Com. launch
of FC (Japan)
Resid. Gas
Heat Pumps
Intro. of Fuel
Cell
in Europe
Smart
Meters
Energy
Storage
Systems
Smart Grid+ Energy
Homes
HEMS
Micro-CHP
expansion
Micro-CHP
ICE/ Stirling
11Excellence in Market Intelligence
Growing presence of Asian companies
11
13Excellence in Market Intelligence
UK System evolution projectionsHigh rise buildings - Existing housing stock
2010
(2.8 million dwellings)
2020
(3.1 million dwellings)
Individual / Communal heating systems
Market penetration:
Individual combi boiler
92%
B
B
Individual combi
boiler6% 2%
Base scenario
RHI introduced in 09.2011
and reduced in 2014
Zero Carbon building 2018
Exis
tin
g
ho
usin
g
sto
ck
Central boiler + HP +
storage cylinder(s)
Central boiler + central
ST + storage cylinder(s)
HP CYLB
Central gas + CHP boiler
+ Heat Interface Units
BHIU
CHP ST BCYL
3%
78% 11%
Others
165,480 units sold
232,750 units sold
14Excellence in Market Intelligence
The UK Heating Market
• The boiler market is the largest in Europe by value, with 1.6 million units
sold in 2010, or over €1.1 billion value or £1.3 billion)
• Air conditioning around €450 million)
• Share of renewable (solar thermal and heat pumps is below €100million
15Excellence in Market Intelligence
Boilers by Type, 2010
• Wall hung boilers dominate the market
• Sales of oil boilers very small
• Combi boilers account for bout 74%
16Excellence in Market Intelligence
The UK heat pump market, by volume,
2009 and 2010
• Rapid growth of air to water
17Excellence in Market Intelligence
Market Trends
Domestic Boilers, 2005-2010• Market recovered in 2010 but still below 2007
• Non-condensing boilers almost disappeared
18Excellence in Market Intelligence
Market Trends
Water Heaters, 2005-2010• Sales of indirect cylinders in declined for 3 years
19Excellence in Market Intelligence
Market Trends
Solar Thermal, 2005-2010• Steady growth but likely to decline due to popularity of PV
20Excellence in Market Intelligence
Market Trends
Heat Pumps, 2005-2010• Steady growth likely to continue
21Excellence in Market Intelligence
Residential Heating Markets,
Europe, 2007-2011 (I)
22Excellence in Market Intelligence
European Solar
Thermal Market 2008 - 2010
1250
483
191
359304 286
176 168
45
1550
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
•China: mainly thermosiphon vacuum tubes:47 million m2 vacuum; 4
million m2 flat plate
•Turkey: ~1 million m2 /year, mainly termosiphon flat plate tubes
‘000 m2
Europe 2008: total 5.4 million m2
Europe 2009: 4.8 million m2 (-11%)
Europe 2010 forecast: +0.1%
23Excellence in Market Intelligence
Key Heat Pump Markets
Trends, 2004-2009
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Austria France Germany Sweden Switzerland UK
Un
its
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
24Excellence in Market Intelligence
Heat recovery Market
Volume, 2010
25Excellence in Market Intelligence
Micro CHP Market
• Currently: ICE units (SenerTec, Vaillant Ecopower)
• Introduction of Stirling Engine in the market in 2009/10
(Ecogen from Baxi, eVita from Remeha, Whispergen from)
WhisperTech)
• 2011: Stirling units planned by Bosch, Ariston Thermo Group,
Viessmann
• Field Trial: Organic Rankin cycle units (Energetix),
commercialisation in 2011
• Most developed markets: Japan – leading; Netherlands,
Germany, UK early stage
Stirling engines
Organic rankine cycle
engine
Internal combustion engine
7000
235600
0
750
1500
2250
3000
3750
4500
5250
6000
6750
7500
2009
2010
2011
26Excellence in Market Intelligence
Heating Markets
Gas Heat Pumps
• Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps currently offered by Robur
and Vaillant in Europe.
• Sales in Italy, Germany, Netherlands, UK and Poland, mostly
for commercial applications
• Since 2010 residential sector is targeted with the introduction
of Vaillant’s Zeolite heat pump in Germany
• Bosch, Viessmann and Robur are in process of developing
their own gas ab/adsorption heat pumps suitable for residential
applications.
Robur gas absorption heat pump
Zeolite gas heat pump
from Vaillant
(10kW thermal capacity)
(35.2kW thermal capacity)
150
370
1000
2400
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
2009 2010 2011
27Excellence in Market Intelligence
Japan: Largest FC Market
Driven by gas distributors
28Excellence in Market Intelligence
Market comparison
UK, France, Germany, 2010
29Excellence in Market Intelligence
2020 Vision
Future
products/
technologies
H2 Fuel Cells
H2 Infrastructure………….
H2 time age……………………………..
Smart-Grids
Micro Generation Networks
Plus Energy Houses
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
30
Excellence in Market Intelligence 30
Smart Home / home automation
Environmental
control
Smart
appliances
Consumer
entertainment
Lighting
control
Building
component
control
Security
system
Safety
alarm
Individual System Control Level
HEMS Smart
Meter
Smart Home
31Excellence in Market Intelligence
Smart Home Tools
The architecture of latest Smart Home System
User
Inte
rfa
ce
Ac
tua
to
r
Sen
so
rS
ys
tem
co
ntr
oll
er
Ce
ntr
al
co
ntr
oll
er
KeypadTouch Panel Push Button
Some system may not require any
central controller. E.g. KNX
Mobile
phone/PDA
Web Control
Thermostat Light control Security control
Switch / Relays
Light sensor Motion sensor Smoke detector
Door / Window
ActuatorBlinds Motor
Shade control Meters
Remote controller
32Excellence in Market Intelligence
Many New Entrants
Generation Transmission SubstationsDistribution Consumption
Services
33Excellence in Market Intelligence
3333
Gas Smart MeterElectricity Smart Meter
In-house Display
• Gas meter measures the volume of gas that passes through it and convert this reading into an energy value. The meter
can be ultrasonic or diaphragm.
• Electricity meter supports both import and export measurement, which enables them to support Feed in Tariffs. The
meter uses 4 quadrant measurement. Configurable alerts can be used to support DNO requirements for smart grid
developments.
• The IHD installed by British Gas (EcoMeter by Landis+Gyr) shows customers their current and previous energy
consumption, estimated energy bills, additional information on PAYG, the status of interrupted devices, and outstanding
debt (if any). If the electricity meter is exporting energy, the carbon emissions for the property are also displayed.
Source: British GasSource: British Gas Source: British Gas
System Specification:
Current Devices
34Excellence in Market Intelligence
Penetration of Smart Meters in the
Residential Market
35Excellence in Market Intelligence
Market Size of Smart Home Market
36Excellence in Market Intelligence
Market Size of Home Energy
Management Market
37Excellence in Market Intelligence
Thank you very much!
Contact:
Mr. Abdel Eljidi
T: +44 1344-465-645
email: [email protected]
www.bsria.co.uk
