UGANDA Food Security Update September 2009...food stocks from the below‐normal first season, market purchases, and exchanges through social safety networks. In reviewing food security

FEWS NET Uganda Kampala Tel: 256-41-4532530 [email protected]

FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC 20006 [email protected]

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

www.fews.net/Uganda

UGANDA Food Security Update September 2009 • Households in the Karamoja region, particularly pastoralists

and agropastoralists, continue to experience high levels of food insecurity. However, the harvest in Karamoja’s wet agriculture zone, which began in September, is expected to ease food security in the region for at least three months up to December 2009. The UN World Food Program (WFP) requires new resources to avert pipeline shortfalls of 41,288 MT (US $36.045 million) up to December 2009.

• Households in northern and eastern Uganda continue to face

moderate to high levels of food insecurity; however, the onset of the rainy season has increased the availability of vegetables and short‐cycle crops, augmenting and easing household food security in the two regions.

• Increased crop supplies to major markets have stabilized

prices, which remain higher than normal and limit household purchasing power.

• Higher‐than‐normal rains from September to December, due to the impact of the El Niño event, are expected to

support bimodal crop cultivation and development. However, the rains could also hamper ripening and harvests in some areas towards the end of the year, resulting in mixed harvests. Higher‐than‐normal rains may also cause river overflows and flooding in low‐lying areas, causing damage to crops, livestock, household assets, and infrastructure.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

Source: FEWS NET Uganda

Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, September 2009

KITGUM

AMURU

PADERGULU

KUMI

AMURIAKATAKWI

BUKEDEA

MOROTO

KAABONG

ABIM

KOTIDO

NAKAPIRIPIRIT

Generally Food Secure

FamineExtremely Food InsecureHighly Food InsecureModerately Food Insecure

FEWS NET Food InsecuritySeverity Scale

Source: WFP/UN agencies, MAAIF/GoU, NGOs ;

Graphics: FEWS NET Uganda

UGANDA Food Security Update September 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

2

Food security overview With the exception of the east, north and northeast, where households have experienced several consecutive years of poor harvests, household food security in the rest of the country is normal, supported through a combination of limited food stocks from the below‐normal first season, market purchases, and exchanges through social safety networks. In reviewing food security conditions in the country, the following key assumptions were considered: • Due to the El Niño event, increase rainfall is expected, starting in late September or early October until December

2009, and possibly continuing into January/February 2010. • Higher than normal El Niño‐related rains are expected to support bimodal crop cultivation and development, but

could hamper ripening and harvests in some areas towards the end of the year, resulting in mixed harvests. • Above‐normal rains may cause river overflows and flooding in low lying areas, causing damage to crops, livestock,

household assets and infrastructure. • Mixed harvests may result in improved food security in some areas, while others may suffer diminished and/or

increased food insecurity. • Mixed harvests will also impact market supplies and prices, either by maintaining higher than normal prices, thereby

limiting access for poorer households, or by contributing to price stabilizations. • Wetter conditions will promote vegetation sprouting and replenish groundwater, enabling and enhancing livestock

access to pastures and water, mainly in agro‐pastoral and pastoral areas. • In northeastern Uganda, it is likely that livestock raids and conflict will continue as more people now look after their

livestock outside the protected kraals. Karamoja region Harvests in the Karamoja region’s wet agriculture zone, located in the western part of the region, started in September. However, delayed and below‐normal rains during the April to September/October unimodal season reduced food production again this year by at least 50 percent. Households in the agropastoral and pastoral zones in the middle and eastern areas of the region had no harvests at all and face diminished food stocks, and have limited access to markets due to high cereal prices. This is the fourth consecutive lower than normal harvest since 2006 and food insecurity remains high as any harvests are still meager and cannot fully alleviate agricultural households’ food security, nor minimize food insecurity in the other two livelihood zones. Households continue practicing, and with rising intensity, unsustainable coping strategies, such as eating one smaller‐than‐usual low quality meal per day; traveling farther than usual in search of scarce wild foods; searching for scarce labor opportunities and fuel wood to sell for income; and selling productive assets. Though the harvest is expected to ease food security in the region for at least three months up to December 2009, food security is not expected to improve significantly in these areas until the next harvest in September/October 2010. At present, the UN World Food Program (WFP) remains the main source of food for an estimated 1.15 million people across the region. Through its Emergency Operation (EMOP), WFP has provided general food assistance to this population since late 2008. WFP also has supplementary and therapeutic feeding programs to cater for and minimize malnutrition among young, lactating mothers and other vulnerable populations in Karamoja. The current EMOP is scheduled to end by December 2009, but given low harvests and the expected early onset of the hunger period, the EMOP is likely to be extended into 2010. While needs remain high, there is serious concern for pipeline shortfalls and WFP is sourcing for new resources to meet and maintain supplies to the pipeline, which faces a 41,288 MT (US $36.045 million) shortfall between now and December 2009. Crop prices in all markets remain higher than normal and at historic levels in some areas, as available crops are overwhelmingly outbalanced by demand. Supplies from neighboring districts, including Kitgum, Lira, Pader and Soroti, are limited in part due to the lower than normal first season harvests in bimodal areas this year. These harvests may not be sufficient to meet needs in Karamoja. Poor road conditions and sporadic insecurity on the roads may also limit trader movements and commodity flows to markets in Karamoja. With no significant harvests and low supplies from the neighboring districts, staple crop prices are expected to remain higher than normal or increase, and continue to limit households’ access to markets as alternative food sources over the next months. In contrast, consistently low livestock prices in the region, where livestock body conditions are poor and deteriorating due to limited access to pastures and water, have continued to lower the livestock/cereal terms of trade. Furthermore, although livestock are still closer to homesteads, low pastures and water have reduced production and livestock herders have started moving westwards towards dry season grazing areas in search of pastures and water. Livestock rustling is still reported in some areas; however, it may increase in the coming period as normally happens when



3

livestock begin moving away from the safety of homesteads in search of pastures and water, increasing their vulnerability to attack. Northern and eastern Uganda Following a much below‐normal first season harvest, which constitutes more than 60 percent of the region’s total annual production, many households in northern and eastern Uganda were unable to replenish staple food stocks, including millet, sorghum, beans, simsim, and peas, and still face moderate to high levels of food insecurity. Nonetheless, with the onset and establishment of the rains in September, short cycle crops, including leafy green vegetables and sweet potatoes, have increasingly become available, augmenting and easing household food and nutrition security in the two regions. Short‐cycle crops are critical as sources of supplementary food during this period to bridge the gap between the first and second harvests. Furthermore, some of the vegetables and sweet potatoes are also sold to earn income that is used to meet other needs. Food security in the two regions will remain moderate until the second season harvests that are expected around November for farmers who planted crops early in August and received rains. The onset of the agricultural season also means increased labor opportunities on the farm, selling of grass thatch and general construction, enabling some people to hire out their labor in exchange for income, which they can use to procure their food and non‐food needs. Seasonal progress Second season land preparation and sowing, which started in mid‐August favored by sporadic rains to well distributed rainfall in September (Figure 2), is underway in bimodal districts across the entire country. However, in isolated areas, mostly around Lake Kyoga in the middle of the country, delays in rains and patchy dry conditions have hampered farmers’ activities. Crops being sown include cereals (maize in most of the country; millet and some sorghum in eastern and northern Uganda) as well as pulses (beans, cow peas, and pigeon peas). Cassava and sweet potatoes are also being planted. Normally, land preparations should have been concluded by early September and all crops sown before October. However, anecdotal information from informal discussions with district officials, farmers and non government organizations (NGOs) to update second season cultivation indicates that farmers in many locations ‐‐ especially in northern Uganda ‐‐ are yet to complete land preparation and crop sowing. They attribute the lagged seasonal activities to a combination of delayed and sporadic rains, inadequate access to farm tools, including hoes, machetes, oxen and ploughs to aid farmers’ land preparation as well as limited seed. UN FAO and NGOs have been distributing seeds to households in Amuru, Gulu, Kitgum and Pader districts in northern Uganda to augment their second season production and increase food production. The delay in completing crop sowing could adversely impact second season crop productivity, production and harvests and food security, especially in northern Uganda where the population is just resettled or is still resettling. Predominantly normal dry conditions are reported in Uganda’s northeastern Karamoja region, where the main sorghum harvest started in September in the wetter agriculture zone on the western part of the region and may continue until the end of October, providing some stocks and alleviating agricultural households’ food insecurity until about December 2009 when they will run out. There are no harvests outside the agricultural zone, and with no stocks remaining, there are limited alternatives for food, pastoral and agro‐pastoral households. Dry conditions have reduced vegetation and water availability and limited livestock access to adequate pastures and water in the region. As a result, livestock, mainly in Kaabong and Kotido districts, have reportedly began moving to dry season grazing areas located to the west of the region, earlier than they normally would have to in late October or November.

Figure 2. Dekadal rainfall estimates versus the long-term average July August September (1st to 20th)

Source: USGS/EDC; Graphics: FEWS NET Uganda



4

The return of rains in August has enabled vegetation regeneration and replenishment of ground water sources. According to reports by district agriculture officials and NGOs working in pastoral districts, precipitation received over the past four weeks has provided moisture to rejuvenate pastures and browse. In the “cattle corridor”, which stretches diagonally from northeastern to southwestern Uganda (Nakasongola, Mubende, Mityana, Sembabule, Rakai, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Ntungamo, and Kabale districts), pastures began sprouting after rainfall showers in August, while further improvements have occurred after well distributed rainfall was received in September, improving livestock production. With the start of the rains and improvement in pastures and water, pastoralists who had moved into Lake Mburo National Park in search of water and pastures had gradually started moving their livestock out of the park and back to normal grazing areas. Livestock are also reportedly returning home in Uganda from areas as far as the Kagera River basin in neighboring Tanzania. Livestock health remains normal in all of the pastoral and agro‐pastoral areas. As the gradually intensifying and well spread rainfall continues and develops into the projected El Niño, it will lead to higher than normal rainfall in most areas of the country, resulting in both beneficial and undesirable effects. The projected extension of the rains into January/February of next year would allow the maturation of crops that were planted late, improving crop harvests as well as maintaining vegetation to ensure adequate browse, pastures and water for livestock and domestic use. High rainfall also will increase water body levels, boosting power generation for domestic and industrial use among other benefits. Adverse effects may include damage to maturing crops, if peak rains occur at critical crop stages: grain formation, filling and or when crops have matured and ready to harvest. Above normal rains may also cause damage to property, destruction of infrastructure so disruption to transportation and communications. There is also a possibility of mud and landslides in hilly areas as well as outbreak and or spread of water borne diseases with likely loss of human life. Cassava and sweet potatoes, key food security crops used by households to bridge deficits, are available, and the supply of tubers has increased following early harvests of sweet potatoes in eastern and northern Uganda. Trade in tubers is reportedly brisk, as farmers/traders supply markets as far as Kampala and western Uganda where demand is high following low first season production. Cassava is available in most districts and helps households meet food needs. Markets and trade Prices decline slightly with harvests but remain high Commodity supplies generally increased in major Ugandan markets as dry commodities from the first season harvests became available, according to anecdotal information from informal trader surveys. Nonetheless, the surveys also indicate that this year’s inflows are comparatively lower than in normal years when the harvest is good and that prices for most commodities have largely remained the same, with no significant declines, except for a few crops. Reasons cited by the traders for the high prices include high demand for food crops (local and exports), and high transportation costs due to high fuel prices and inflation, which now stands at about 12.4 percent. The high prices for food and other goods continue to erode household purchasing power, especially among the poor, reducing market‐dependent households’ ability to access food and other services. For example, the price of sorghum, a staple crop in eastern, northern, and northeastern Uganda, has remained higher than the five‐year average over the last 12 months and rose dramatically between February and August, increasing 65 and 35 percent in Lira and Soroti, respectively, compared to only 34 and 19 percent over the five‐year average (2003‐2008) during the same period in the two main district markets and regional suppliers in the north and east, respectively (Figure 3). The high prices reflect a shortage of sorghum supplies and higher than usual demand, limiting many households’ access to food from the market. These price increases have been passed on to markets in neighboring areas that depend on Lira and Soroti districts for food supplies, such as in Gulu, Kitgum and Pader in northern Uganda; Abim, Kaabong, Kotido, Moroto and Nakapiripirit districts in Karamoja, and Amuria and Katakwi in Teso. Consequently, the multiplier effect of higher prices in Lira and Soroti limit food access not only in their immediate supply areas, but also in areas currently moderately to highly food insecure. Though prices have declined since July as the first season harvests started, they will remain higher than normal nonetheless due to low harvests limiting market supplies.

Figure 3. Nominal wholesale sorghum prices in Lira and Soroti, Sept.08-Aug. 09 vs. Sept. 03-Aug. 08 (avg.)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

USh

s pe

r 10

0Kg

Lira 5-yr ave Soroti 5-yr ave Lira 2008-09 Soroti 2008-09

Source: Market Information Service- Farmgain Africa Ltd

Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

ANNEX: Uganda Monthly Price Bulletin September 2009

Monthly prices in Uganda are supplied by MIS/Farmgain Africa Ltd.

Cooking banana (matoke), dry cassava chips, sorghum, millet, beans, and white maize are important food commodities for Ugandans. The staple food varies by region. Matoke is most important in the central, western, and southwestern regions; millet in the east; and sorghum in the east, north and northeast. Cassava chips, beans, and white maize are also very important for a significant part of population; cassava chips are especially important in eastern (Soroti), northern, and northwestern (Arua) Uganda. In Mbarara and Kampala, matoke is most important commodity for all households. Lira and Soroti depend heavily on sorghum and millet and also represent a supply source for Karamoja. Beans are consumed across the country, but monitored in Kampala and Lira: the latter of which is also a production area. Masindi is a production and commercial area for white maize.


Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii


Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii

Documents

UGANDA Food Security Update September 2009...food stocks from the below‐normal first season, market purchases, and exchanges through social safety networks. In reviewing food security