Volume 1 | Issue 1January 2015

“The power of statistics and more...”

Quarterly Journal of UDA Consultingwww.udaconsulting.com

UDA JOURNAL

What Does this issue incluDe?

About UDA Consulting 4

Meet UDA Family 5

Interview with the CEO of UDA 7

UDA’s Current and Previous Projects 8

Focus Article “The Importance of Statistics in Humanitarian 13Assistance Projects: The Syrian Case”

News & Announcements 17

Disclaimer: All rights reserved @UDA Consulting. This Journal does not seek profit and only carries the goal of reaching its project partners, as well as previous, current and potential contacts of UDA Consulting. UDA Journal cannot be sold nor distribu-ted to public. The content of this publication does not necessarily reflect the views of UDA Consulting and it does not aim any kind of political advocacy.

Please, prınt thıs document only ıf necessary. Save the trees ! “UDA cares about the envıronment”

ForeWorD

Dear Readers,

It is our upmost pleasure and honour to greet you from the very first issue of UDA Journal, a long-awaited product of UDA Consulting. The main motivations of this Journal can be mentioned briefly as firstly; to update friends of UDA on the company’s activities and secondly; to open UDA Journal as a platform to researchers and scientist to inform the international audience on their statistics related work.

Hence, in this issue, we present you an opportunity to get to know our devoted team and a selection of our most important previous and current projects. Furthermore, by reading the interview with Mr. Demirbüken, the CEO of UDA Consulting, you will learn more about the mission and vision of UDA Consulting, and also our Company objectives for 2015.

Moreover, this issue follows the aim of UDA regarding highlighting and sharing the importance of statistics for the field of social research and analysis, in addition to many other fields. It has been decided to focus on a current hot topic from the field of development and migration for the first issue of UDA Journal. Therefore, we present a great article talking about some of the studies on Syrian refugee situation in Turkey, which applied statistical methods for their analysis. The article briefly points out how their analysis should be a matter of issue for the successful implementation of humanitarian action programs or future policy making processes.

UDA Consulting would be delighted to provide the opportunity of publication for other researchers. So, we kindly invite the aspirants to share their research articles with us.

We wish you a pleasant reading and kindly remind you to reach us for any inquiries regarding UDA’s activities or the Journal.

Yours sincerely,

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Akif BakırEditor in Chief

We wish all of our readers a happy new year and hope 2015 will bring health, happiness and success to all!

to project management, geographical information systems and remote sensing applications. UDA works with IBM SPSS as its official business partner to ensu-re the most advanced and professional methods.

UDA Partners UDA Consulting has implemented projects with re-nowned national and international institutions inclu-ding World Bank Group, United Nations, European Union, COMCEC, Turkish Republic Ministry of Fa-mily and Social Policies, Turkish Republic Ministry of National Education, North Anatolian Development Agency, Turkish Labor Agency and Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD).

UDA Academy UDA Academy provides tailored and structured tra-inings under certificate programmes on applications of statistics, research and geographical information systems.

As an international consultancy company based in Turkey since 2009, UDA Consulting; holds a vision to empower businesses, industries and public instituti-ons by enabling them to draw meaningful inferences from data and therefore focuses on statistics, project management and evaluation, research and Geograp-hical Information Systems. It provides timely, reliab-le and accurate consultancy services and trainings on these topics by following international standards for research activities (ISO 9001 & ISO 20252) and sticks to its principles of respecting human rights, cultural diversity, protection of environment and gender equ-ality at all times.

UDA Expertise UDA’s expertise extend from statistics in both quali-tative and quantitative research processes (social and demographic surveys, health surveys, labour market surveys, evaluation and review surveys, impact as-sessment, satisfaction surveys, market research, fi-nance, education, labour market, agriculture, crime, sports, disaster management, and migration surveys)

UDA Consulting was established in 2009 and has a dynamic, young yet experienced team.

4

about uDa consulting

4

5

UDA team is highly qualified in project development, management and implementation, as its experts have rewarding experience in a wide range of areas. Towards this end, UDA offer complete research, consultancy and training services from concept to conclusion.

HAKAN DEMİRBÜKEN

I have 22 years of expe-rience as a statistician and a researcher, holding key positions in the public, private and international sectors. I worked at the Turkish State Institute of Statistics for 8 years, for a private company in the consultancy-research se-

ctor for two years. Then I started my career at the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, which continued for 12 years. With regard to the latter, I worked in a managerial position as a sta-tistics and research expert. I implemented pro-jects in different countries including Afghanis-tan, Uzbekistan, Morocco, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Egypt, Ukraine, South Africa, Trinidad and To-bago, Turkey and Austria during my service at UN. After 22 years of working experience at na-tional and international levels, I established UDA Consulting. Now, I am the CEO of the Company.

BAYRAM SAMET ŞAHİN

I have a bachelor degree in Statistics (METU-2009), master and ongoing PhD in Demography. I have 6 years of professional working experience in applied statistics regarding drugs and crime, demography, agriculture, labor market, pharmacy, irre-gular migration and education fields through United Nations, European Union and private sector projects in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Turkey.Now, I am in charge of management, co-ordination and development of statistics and research oriented projects.

Meet uDa FaMily

5

BAŞAK BETİN

As a considerably new member of UDA Family, I have been working at UDA since October 2014. I graduated from Middle East Technical Univer-sity, Statistics Department. Before UDA, I wor-ked at Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) between 1998 and 2014. During these years, I was fully in charge of important responsibilities such as statistical project development, project writing and management issues especially for the projects financed by the UN bodies such as UNDP, UNFPA or other organizations namely the World Bank and the European Union. Now, I work as a project developer and manager at UDA Con-sulting. I am currently wor-king on the development phase of a new project for TÜBİTAK. I am very happy for being with the UDA Team and I look forward to developing and implementing successful projects together.

TUĞÇE KAYII have a BSc. degree in Statistics at Middle East Technical University and I am currently following a postgraduate program on Actuarial Sciences. My area of interest and expertise is on statistics,

disaster/risk management and actuary. I have pre-vious experience in wor-king with AFAD for the “Türkiye Afet Bilgi Banka-sı-TABB (Turkish Disaster Data Bank)” project. Now, for the past four months I am the project assistant of the World Bank funded Project namely “Prepara-

tion of Turkey Disaster Management Strategy Pa-per” Project at UDA Consulting.

EZGİ ERGENÇI have been working for UDA for almost two ye-ars as a social researcher. I graduated from METU with a BSc. degree in Sociology and I currently continue my master studies in the same depart-ment. As a young socio-logist, I think UDA gives me a chance to take part in a wide range of national and international projects. Now, I am coordinating an evaluation project for UNICEF and Ministry of Family and Social Policy for which I had a chance to implement qualitative and quantitative research at the local level and analyze a great number of data collected.

ESİN TURHANI have joined the UDA Team recently in No-vember 2014. I hold a BA in International Relations from METU. Then I completed my master study on International Development abroad, at University of Kent, with Jean Mon-net Scholarship from the EU. While working for UDA as the Assistant Project Manage-ment I enjoy the opportunity of working in my field of interest and learning a lot.

CHRIS FLOWERI am an American living in Istanbul. I completed my un-dergraduate study at Ohio Do-minican University in Political Science and Social Justice and obtained an MA in Political Science. I am currently inter-ning with UDA to assist with research and revise publication documents since October 2014.

DANIEL DIEZI am the latest addition to the UDA team as the research intern. I recently finished my master studies in Economic Analysis at Barce-lona GSE and I believe that UDA will provide me with the best transition from the academia to the real world of empirical research. As this is my first time assisting the monitoring and evaluation of international projects, I aim to improve my professional and research skills.

6

OĞUZHAN AKYILDIRIMI am a master statistician with more than 14 years of experience at TURKSTAT and 12 years in statistical capacity building projects. I have very good knowledge on all EU candidate countries through my participation in numerous EU funded statistical projects. Since I have both my bachelor and master degrees on Statistics, my specia-lization is on survey tools, sampling, data collection, data cleaning and preparation, statistical analysis and so on. My field of expertise also includes labour market, bu-siness and social statistics, as well as project cycle management, programming and decision-making processes of EU support programmes with my technical knowled-ge on research design and implementation.

Hakan Demirbüken, founder and the CEO of UDA

Could you please tell us about the founding principle of UDA Consulting? I established the UDA Consulting Company wih the aim to contribute to the use of Statistics Science in different sectors. Main principle of our company is to implement evidence based research activities, tra-inings and find key solutions for customers. UDA is not a profit oriented company but focuses more on promoting Statistics as a cross cutting science in dif-ferent sectors.

What are the fields that UDA has been involved in, in the recent years? In what other fields would UDA prefer to be active in?UDA was established in 2009. In such a short time, UDA managed to complete numerous national and international projects related with statis+tics and re-search. Now, UDA is planning to extend its activi-ties further to the applications of GIS (Geographical Information Systems) Remote Sensing and Project Management.

What are the main regions in which UDA has con-ducted research projects or trainings?UDA’s map logo presents the the regions in which UDA has implemented projects or where it aims to expand. UDA will continue to focus on Turkey, Central Asia, Caucasus, East and North Africa, Midde East, South Asia and East Asia regions in the fu-ture. It is planned to have UDA bran-ches or franchises in these regions.

In your over 22 years of experience in international project management, what is your opinion regarding the new trends and ways of usage in social research for development projects?12 years ago, when I started working for UNODC, I was the only statistician in the entire organization. However, in the recent years number of statisticians and researchers in the organization has increased sharply. Same thing happened in many other orga-

nizations. Now, I am glad to see that the role and im-portance of the social research has increased at glo-bal level. I believe there will be more need for social research at national and international levels in the future.

What are the company objectives for 2015? UDA aims to expand the scope of its activities this year. We will launch the “UDA Academy” as the

think tank component of the company, responsible for research training. The research training courses will be an-nounced in March 2015. UDA Academy will also start publishing a Research Journal in the first quarter of 2015. This Journal will be open for all researchers

to present their studies. Besides, we aim to have franchisers in several countries. We would like to expand the UDA brand on statistical and re-search applications in different parts of the world. Finally, UDA will continue to be an official solution partner of IBM SPSS. Yet, we are planning to estab-lish new partnership agreements with well-known companies that work on Geographical Information Systems, Remote Sensing and Project Management.

“ I am glad to see that the role and im-portance of social re-search has increased at the global level „

4

7

intervieW With the ceo oF uDa

uDa’s current anD Previous Projects

8

FieldDisaster Risk Management

Implementation PeriodJune 2014 - ongoing

Objectives• Establishing an incorporated po-licy framework for Integrated Di-saster Management processes • Providing a direction for Disaster Risk Management plans• Elaborating perspective for deve-lopment and implementation of programs targeting Disaster Re-silient Society

BeneficiariesWorld Bank, Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Disaster & Emer-gency Management Presidency

Main Activities• Desk review, reviewing docu-mentation at the national level and at the international level • Workshops, focusing on estab-lishing a list of basic concepts and definitions in the field of DRM; guidelines for all phases of disaster risk management, forming a set of strategic objectives and implemen-tation strategies under operational capacity-building• Site Visits, lasting for 2-3 days in 4 provinces to gain a deeper unders-tanding of the key roles and stra-tegies to influence potential chan-ges to be conducted by the project manager and disaster specialists, based on in-depth interviews with at least 6 key informants in gover-nment and representatives of key stakeholders.

PREPARATION of TURKEY DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY PAPER

Expected OutcomesAttaining Turkey DM Strategy Paper to be used as strategic fra-mework for policy-making

StakeholdersWorld Bank; Prime Ministry Disas-ter & Emergency Management Pre-sidency; T.R. Ministries of Deve-lopment, Environment and Urban Planning, Interior, Health, Food Agriculture and Livestock, Family and Social Policies, Transport Ma-ritime Affairs and Communicati-ons, National Education, Labor and Social Security, Energy and Natural Resources; Red Crescent.

1 October 2014 Stakeholders’ meeting 28 November 2014 Inception

LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION SYSTEM for FREE MOVEMENT of SKILLS

FieldInformation System Building and Training

Implementation PeriodNovember 2014 - ongoing

ObjectivesEstablishing a Labour Market In-formation System for proper ma-nagement of free movement of skills within the Caribbean Single Market and Economy

BeneficiariesCaribbean Community Secretariat

Main Activities• Data collection• Re-design and development of CSME Labour Market Information System and developing a statistical data warehouse for statistical dis-semination process,• General training on design and implementation of statistical rese-arch in Labour Market.

Expected OutcomesAn operating framework for data management on free movementmanagement of labour migration impacts of free movement and the advancement of the CARICOM Social Security system.

StakeholdersCARICOM Secretariat and its Member States

FieldProgram Evaluation

Implementation PeriodJanuary 2014 - January 2015

ObjectivesEvaluating the real impacts and ef-fectiveness of the psychosocial sup-port programs and activities imp-lemented after the Earthquakes by UNICEF & Ministry of Family and Social Policy (MFSP), such as; • the training provided by UNI-CEF for MFSP personnel

• fieldwork of MFSP • psychosocial support to children, families, vulnerable groups and the community• activities organized by UNICEF for prioritizing interventions in the areas of education and child pro-tection to bring forward some re-commendations for future policies.

Main Activities• Desk review• Field work conducted in Van and Erciş: qualitative and quantitative data collection in order to assess the impacts of psychosocial sup-port provided to affected peop-le; household questionnaires and online surveys for measuring the effectiveness of the psychosocial support; focus group discussions with children, women and NGO representatives; in-depth inter-views with women (who left to other cities after the earthquakes)

and decision makers.

Expected OutcomesEstablishment of an evaluation re-port underlining the compliance, scope, efficiency, effectiveness, sus-tainability and impacts of the ps-ychosocial activities implemented with UNICEF and MFSP, as well as future recommendations and lessons learned from the previous practices.

BeneficiariesT.R. Ministry of Family and Social Policy (MFSP), UNICEF

StakeholdersT.R. Ministry of Family and Social Policy, UNICEF, Prime Ministry Disaster & Emergency Manage-ment Presidency, T.R Ministry of Health, T.R. Ministry of National Education, Union of Psychological Support in Emergencies

EVALUATION of PSYCHOSOCIAL SUPPORT PROGRAMS IMPLEMENTED AFTER VAN and ERCİŞ EARTHQUAKES

9

Focus group discussions with children in Van, at Provincial Directorate of MFSP

STUDENTS LEARNING ABOUT the EUROPEAN UNION COMMON VALUES, FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS and POLICIES

FieldCapacity & Awareness Building

Implementation PeriodDecember 2014 - December 2016

ObjectivesImproving the capacity of Turkish students and teachers of primary and secondary education on EU

Main Activities• Two data collection periods, first one at the beginning of the Project in 21 cities in Turkey to grasp the knowledge level on the EU and the second one towards the end of the

project to measure the success of the activities • Communication and awareness raising activities through informa-tive materials (such as handbooks, brochures, booklets, posters, ga-mes, puzzles) and a website• Organization of different compe-titions at provincial, regional and national levels, including quizzes, painting, short story and slogan competitions• Trainings for teachers, administ-rators and MoNE staff

Expected OutcomesIncreased knowledge and aware-

ness of students (aged 10-18) on EU policies, common values and fundamental rights, through effec-tive educational measures

BeneficiariesT.R. Ministry of National Educati-on (MoNE)

StakeholdersEuropean Commission Directora-te General for Enlargement; T.R. Ministry of National Education; EU Delegation to Turkey; T.R. Mi-nistry for EU Affairs; education institutions, students and teachers in Turkey

EUROPEANUNION

10

FieldSocial Impact Assessment

Implementation PeriodJanuary - September 2014

ObjectivesExploring social effects of the ther-mal power plant and mines

in Kahramanmaraş on people li-ving in the region, in the surroun-ding villages and provinces of Af-şin and Elbistan

BeneficiariesTUBITAKMiddle East Technical University

Main Activities• Training provided to enumera-tors and pilot study• 1000 face-to-face questionnai-res in 20 villages and surrounding communities in city centres of Af-şin and Elbistan, data entry and analysis on SPSS database

OutcomesData collection and social analysis of data collected from 1000 people.

StakeholdersMiddle East Technical University, TUBITAK, villagers and residents in Afşin and Elbistan

METU

Face-to-face questionnaires with local people and children in Kahramanmaraş

Face-to-face questionnaires conducted at the participants’ houses

SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT of THERMAL POWER PLANT and MINES in KAHRAMANMARAŞ

FieldData Collection

Implementation PeriodOctober - December 2014

ObjectivesCollecting socio-economic baseli-ne data from the 6 villages (Çöpler, Sabırlı, Dostal, Bağıştaş, Bahçecik

and Yakuplu) in the İliç district of Erzincan located around the gold-mine.

Main Activities• Qualitative and quantitative data collection tools were developed and tested prior to the implemen-tation• 211 face-to-face questionnaires with households and 12 in-depth interviews with village leaders.• Qualitative and quantitative data analysis• Research report writing in Eng-lish and Turkish and findings were presented

OutcomesData collection and analysis of ba-seline data from every household in 6 villages

BeneficiariesAlacer Gold Corp.

StakeholdersVillagers in İliç district, ErzincanAnagold Mining

SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE STUDY in ERZİNCAN

Responsible Field Officers in front of the Anagold Mining Building in İliç

Face-to-face interviews with local pe-ople in Erzincan

11

RURAL AGEING ANALYSISNORTH ANATOLIAN DEVELOPMENT AGENCY

FieldData Collection

Implementation PeriodApril - August 2014

ObjectivesAssessing living standards of elder-

ly population in TR-82 region of Turkey (Kastamonu, Çankırı, Si-nop) which includes health condi-tions, daily activities, relationship of elderly people with their relati-ves, physical living conditions to understand and improve the their quality of life and life satisfaction.

Main Activities• Research included the implemen-tation of quantitative and qualitati-ve techniques and analysis• 272 face-to-face questionnaires and 36 in-depth interviews were conducted with elderly people in 6 villages of each city

OutcomesAn extensive research report, de-veloped by using advanced statis-tical analysis.

StakeholdersNorth Anatolian Development Agency (KUZKA); elderly people live in rural regions in Kastamo-nu, Çankırı and Sinop

Face-to-face interview with an elderly woman in Kastamonu, Gökçe Village Info-sharing meeting with KUZKA

FieldData collection & capacity building in agricultural statistics

Implementation PeriodNovember 2013 - March 2014

ObjectivesEvaluating the current situation of the COMCEC Member Countries’ agricultural statistics and provi-ding recommendations for impro-ving data collection, compilation, processing, and dissemination in the COMCEC Region

Main Activities• Examination of the general out-look of the current situation of agricultural statistics in the COM-CEC Region• Analysis of the statistical capacity and needs of COMCEC Member Countries as a whole• Assessment of the agricultural statistical methodologies regar-ding data collection, compilation, processing, and dissemination in the COMCEC Region, including case studies from the COMCEC Member Countries• Formulation of policy recom-mendations for the COMCEC Member Countries for enhancing the capacity of the agricultural sta-tistics systems

OutcomesEstablishment of a study which un-derlines the strengths, constraints

and gaps in terms of agricultural statistics in the COMCEC region and provides policy recommenda-tions.

BeneficiariesStanding Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Coo-peration (COMCEC)

Stakeholders57 Member Countries’ Statistics Institutions and Ministries of Agri-culture

IMPROVING AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS in the COMCEC REGION

COMCEC

Meeting with the Head of Department of Statistics, Malaysia

Site visit in Uganda

FieldTailored Training (Certification Programme)

Date12 -15 August 2014

BeneficiaryStaff of United Nations Office on Drugs an Crime Regional Office for Central Asia in Tashkent

Training Topics • Brief explanation of source co-des of Data Management Systems • IBM SPSS syntax and using syn-tax in Data Management Systems

• Data Management and Mani-pulation with IBM SPSS Statistics (focusing on drug trafficking and crime related statistics)

12

DATA MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS TRAINING

trainings

UNODC in Central Asia

TAILORED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT UNODC in Central Asia

• Advanced Statistical Analysis (T-test, ANOVA, Regression, Correlation)

FieldTailored software development and training

Implementation PeriodAugust - December 2013

ObjectivesDesigning a tailored software for fast calculations on drug traffi-cking data which is expected to enable calculations on relations-hip between different variables, by using cross tables and achieving effective, fast and sufficient statis-tical analysis within the developed software. Training beneficiaries on how to use the Software efficiently.

BeneficiaryStaff of United Nations Office on

Drugs an Crime Regional Office for Central Asia

Main Activities• Designing Drugs Monitoring IBM SPSS Statistics Software for data entry, data import and data analysis• Training on survey methodology, data collection, data analysis, data manipulation and data modelling methods with usage of designed

SPSS software for increasing the statistical analysis capacity of the beneficiary

OutcomesUser friendly, multi-lingual IBM-SPSS software for fast calculations on drug trafficking data; trained staff on how to use SPSS, statistics and qualitative and quantitative research techniques.

The interface of the Software Programme tailor-designed for UNODC by UDA

Participants were awarded with certifi-cates at the end of the training sessions

UNODC staff from Tashkent

13

Focus article

the iMPortance oF statistics in huManitarian assistance Projects:

“THE SYRIAN CASE”

The events in Syria have led to the displacement of thousands of Syrians during the last years seeking re-fuge in neighbouring countries. Only in Turkey, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees re-ports more than 1.5 million refugees from Syria.

Several actions have been taken to address the nee-ds of those refugees in Turkey. Up to 22 camps have been set in south and south-eastern regions, close to the Syrian border, hosting around 220,000 Syrian re-fugees. Complementary programs such as the World Food Program of UN and other assistance programs coordinated between UNICEF and the Ministries of Family and Social Policies and of National Education have also taken place.

Those and many other humanitarian assistance prog-rams significantly benefit from an appropriate and ef-ficient use of statistics in many stages of their projects. In the upcoming sections, several of those examples resulting from the Syrian refugee crisis are used to il-lustrate how statistical tools can be helpful in:

1. Understanding the demographic profile of the target population,2. Identifying and assessing the needs and priori-ties,3. Designing the interventions and monitoring,4. Analysing the trends and making forecasts ac-cordingly,5. Evaluating and monitoring the impacts of the in-tervention programs,6. Defining policies and strategies.

Learnıng about the Target Popu-latıon Profıle and the Context

To design an efficient intervention plan, it is neces-sary to know the socio-economic and demographic structure of the target population. At the same time, it is needed to take all relevant characteristics of the context of that population into account. This infor-mation is usually gathered through administrative records, focus groups, interviews and surveys and helps to get a better understanding of the situation (the big picture) and to define the needs assessment.A careful sample design can ensure its representati-vity and thus allowing for extrapolating the results of the survey to the overall population of interest, providing valuable descriptive statistics of the moti-vations of the displacement, the socio-demographic composition of the refugee population, or the diffe-rences between those accommodated in temporary camps and those living in the cities.

Focus group discussions are usually used as a first approach to population’s needs and perceptions. Ge-nerally, the design of the target sample and the topics to be included in a survey should take into account the first glimpse of the reality learnt from the diffe-rent focus groups.

Administrative records do not require sample design as they usually include information for all individuals in a specific group, which are required to register to gain access to some specific services. The register of refugees at the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is one of such examples. Those records provide information about gender and age distribu-tion, areas of origin, the proportion of refugees living in camps in comparison with those living outside the

Daníel Diez Alonso

14

temporary accommodation centres and many other relevant socio-demographic characteristics.

Statistical methods can also help to analyse whether the information collected is reliable and usually offer valuable information for those cases where questions about specific topics were not answered. Using evi-dence from the overall sample, statistical methods allow the researcher to extrapolate and estimate how this missing information would look like.

Identıfyıng and Assessıng Needs and Prıorıtıes

After collecting the data following a careful design of the sample, questionnaires and interviews, an analysis both from a qualitative and a quantitative approach is needed.

The Disaster and Emergency Management Presiden-cy of Turkey (AFAD) conducted a survey on Syrian refugees in 2013. Its main goals were to “(1) collect data to improve the conditions and quality of the ser-vice in the temporary accommodation centres, (2) obtain demographic socio-economic and socio-cul-tural information about the Syrian refugees, (3) do a needs assessment for the humanitarian needs of the Syrian refugees living in various cities outside the temporary protection centres”. The survey included questions about demographic and socio-economic characteristics, and the valuation/opinion on health, nutrition, accommodation, security and other quality of life related variables. In that case, the target popula-tion was Syrian refugees and a sample of 7,860 people in 1,420 households in temporary accommodation

centres and other 7,340 people in 1,160 households outside the temporary accommodation centres were selected.

Important information can be highlighted from the AFAD Survey on Syrian Refugees in Turkey 2013: about one fifth of the household heads are women; nearly half of the Syrian refugees in the camps re-ported their houses in Syria are severely or comp-letely damaged, and around one third reported de-ath or injury of at least one family member; one in four Syrian refugees leaving outside the camps live in ruins or make-shift arrangements; close to half of the refugees think that they or their family members need psychological support; a quarter of both adults and children report having sleeping disorders; child-ren not vaccinated against polio and measles are rat-her larger out of the camps, posing serious threat to the health of local population; only 14% of children outside of the camps are attending schools; close to three in five refugees plan to return Syria after the conflict ends.

Further information can be deducted from UNHCR Inter-agency information Sharing Portal. More than half of the refugees are less than 17 years old, most of them comprised in ages between 0 and 11 years old, being that one of the most vulnerable groups.

The Rapid Gender and Protection Assessment Report on Kobane Refugee Population identified several is-sues that should be approached urgently: the lack of lockable, safe and secure bathing facilities generate a gender violence risk for women; people with disa-bilities are also highly vulnerable to sexual violence

Source: Syrian Regional Refugee Response – Inter-agency Information Sharing Portal, UNHCR

15

and other forms of abuse; lactating women should be provided a higher intake of calories in order to enable them to express milk; culturally appropriate hygiene products for menstruation should be provided to wo-men in reproductive ages.

Crossing the information about demographic and socio-economic composition of the target populati-on with that collected about basic needs will allow for setting the priorities of the program and choosing the most efficient implementation strategy, developed ac-cording to specific criteria related to the aid receivers. Family demographics are especially relevant when planning the organization and logistics of camps and the delivery of aid packages. The use of statistics is hence elementary to provide the necessary informa-tion to make such strategic decisions.

Interventıon Desıgn and Monıtorıng

The importance of data and statistics becomes appa-rent not only before designing the intervention but also during its implementation. Any humanitarian aid action does not only have to deal with changes in the context and take into account the evolution and trends, but also needs to monitor how the implemen-tation goes in order to react in case anything goes off-track. Statistics and Data Science are useful tools to analyse the information of the ongoing actions and assess whether some changes are needed in the view to achieve the objectives. At the same time, several factors in the environment might change during the implementation of the program and having updated information will help making strategic decisions. For

example, in the existence of unexpected budgetary restrictions due to a reduction of funds, day-to-day data will provide scope for assessing what the impa-cts of each available alternative can be. That informa-tion can be used to predict how modifying the eligi-bility criteria of the beneficiaries or how reducing the amount of the benefits can affect the target populati-on, in order to prioritize the most vulnerable groups or to maximize the cost-efficiency of the interventi-on, for example. Therefore, monitoring can help to define more consistent and systematic criteria to face changes in the most efficient way.

Identıfyıng Trends and Predıctıng Evolutıons

Emergency interventions usually need to tackle short term needs without compromising the future. In or-der to predict how situations will evolve and thus plan interventions taking into consideration long term scenarios, it is necessary to identify trends and even to model them whenever possible.

The histogram of the Distribution of Syrian Refugees in Turkey represents the evolution of the inflow of displaced Syrian arriving in Turkey during the last year, describing how their distribution in camps and outside camps has changed. It can be seen that alt-hough the number of refugees in camps has increa-sed only by 10% during the last year, the total num-ber of displaced Syrians has more than doubled. This situation means that while one year ago the actions in camps were able to reach about 40% of the popu-lation, right now 80% of the people must be reached outside the camps.

Source: UNHCR Report “Turkey – External Update - 5 December 2014”

16

Although modelling social events is usually complica-ted, identifying trends will be the only available source of information to plan actions taking into account the expected evolution of the situation. Migration flows depend on several factors and are usually reactions to specific events with some time-lapse between incident and response. If it is possible to identify the relation and usual time-gap between those triggering events and the resulting displacement of population, moni-toring the former will allow for predicting the latter and take advantage of the time-lapse to get ready.

Impact EvaluatıonImpact evaluation can be seen from two points of view: first, as the way to check if the goals of the hu-manitarian assistance project are actually achieved and, second, as the way to assess the impacts on ele-ments other than those directly targeted (indirect ef-fects). Although the impact evaluation is supposed to take place at the end of a project, some monitoring and partial evaluations of the indicators regarding the expected outcome is advisable.

The Syrian Research and Evaluation Organization published an initial assessment on The Socio-economic Impact of Syrian Urban Refugees in Gaziantep. Throu-gh a qualitative, survey-based approach, the researc-hers analysed the impact of the refugee influx on the housing market and the labour market of Gaziantep. An increasing scarcity of housing due to high demand and a relevant market rise in rental prices over the past two years was identified. However, the authors also indicate a pre-existing scarcity of housing due to the high growth rate that Gaziantep experienced during the last years, and the Turkish law does not allow Sy-rian nationals to buy properties in Turkey. As for the labour market, the area already suffered high unemp-loyment rates prior to the conflict (17.2% in 2009) and the inflow of Syrian refugees usually exploited by local employers has worsened the situation.

Gathering baseline data, monitoring the evolution of relevant variables and identifying and tracking a va-lid control group will be some of the keys to succeed isolating the actual impacts of the intervention from those other changes resulting from pre-existing tren-ds and effects of the events.

Polıcy Makıng and Publıc OpınıonInformation and lessons learnt from the monitoring and evaluation processes can be used for further po-licy making and influence public opinion. “Migrati-on flows” is an important topic that must be addres-sed from a Public Policy point of view. The impacts of the population flows on prices, labour market, he-alth and crime are usually relevant factors affecting public opinion of host populations. Statistics and data analysis can provide the necessary informati-on to prevent potential negative effects of migration flows while supporting its positive effects and also to influence public opinion through publication of re-ports. In the case of refugee flows due to events like the recent war in Syria, the huge number of displaced people comprised in a short period of time makes those potential concerns emerge faster.

Quoting the report of the Migration Policy Centre on Syrian Refugees in Turkey: “Migration represents both an opportunity and a challenge. While well-ma-naged migration may foster progress and welfare in origin- as well as destination countries, its mismana-gement may put social cohesion, security and national sovereignty at risk. Sound policy-making on migration and related matters must be based on knowledge, but the construction of knowledge must in turn address policy priorities.”

ReferencesDisaster and Emergency Management Presidency (2013). Syrian Refugees in Turkey. Field Survey Results.International Medical Corps, CARE International (2014, Oct.). Rapid Gender and Protection Assessment Report Kobane Refugee Population, Suruç, Turkey.Şenay Özden (2013). Syrian Refugees in Turkey. MPC Research Reports, Robert Schuman Centre for Ad-vanced Studies, European University Institute.Syria Research and Evaluation Organization (2013, Oct.).The Socioeconomic Impact of Syrian Urban Refu-gees in Gaziantep: An Initial Assessment.UN High Commissioner for Refugees (2014, Dec.). External Update - Turkey.UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Inter-agency Information Sharing Portal - Syria Regional Refugee Response. Available on: http://data.unhcr.orgUN World Food Program (2013, Sep.).WFP Syria Cri-sis Response: Regional Refugee Response.

neWs ✓ Inception Workshop of “Preparation of Turkey Disaster Management Strategy Paper (TDMSP) Project” was held on 28 November 2014 in An-kara, with participation of public, private, civil and academic stakehol-ders. Main purpose of the Workshop was to make contributions to the development of the conceptual frame within the determination progress of strategical targets and priorities for the development of a stable, comp-rehensive and integrated disaster management system.

✓ “Evaluation of the Psychological Programme conducted after Van Eart-hquake” and “Socio-Economic Baseline Study in Erzincan” projects were concluded after the final reports were submitted to their beneficiaries in the beginning of January 2015.

✓ The consortium of AAM Management LTD and UDA Consulting has been shortlisted for the EuropeAid project namely “Technical Assistance for Upgrading Information and Communication Technologies Ser-vices of TurkStat”. Another consultancy project that UDA has been shortlisted for is “Development of an Integrated System of Household Surveys on International Migration for Commonwealth of Independent Sta-

tes”, offered by the World Bank. The purpose of this project is to finalize development of the specialized survey of migrants’ tool by conducting survey of Tajik migrants in Russia.

✓ The Kick-off meeting of “Students Learning About the European Uni-on Common Values, Fundamental Rights and Policies” Project was held with the project partners in Ankara on 6 January 2015, as the first offi-cial meeting of 2015.

✓ UDA Academy, which will start training sessions in March 2015, will provide scheduled trainings for any aspirant who is interested in statis-tics, social research and project implementation. In order to get more

information on the application system, certification, dates and the content of the trainings, please visit: www.udaconsulting.com regularly.

Please send your CVs in EU or World Bank format to career@udaconsulting.com if you are✓ an international or national expert, with knowledge and experience in project evaluation, political communication, disaster management, WASH, agriculture, labour market, social inclusion, energy efficiency, climate change, social impact assessment or environment, ✓ interested in an internship at UDA Consulting Company, to work as home-based or with other emp-loyees at our office in Ankara. Please note that this is an unpaid internship, yet the interns will be provi-ded with lunch for working days.

17

announceMents

Inception Workshop of TDMSP Project held on 28 November 2014, in Ankara

Kick-Off Meeting of Students Learning About the European Union Project

contact inForMation For inquiries

info@udaconsulting.comPhone: +90 312 287 82 17

Fax: +90 312 286 86 30Address: Çukurambar Mah. 41. Cadde

1465. Sokak 14/4 Çankaya/ANKARA TURKEYwww.udaconsulting.com

Editorial Design and Layout: Esin Turhan