UCSB Economic Forecast Project The City of Oxnard Economic Outlook Bill Watkins September 15, 2004

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectThe City of OxnardEconomic Outlook

Bill WatkinsSeptember 15, 2004

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectOutline

• Oxnard

• Baby Boomers

• Building Oxnard

• Forecast

UCSB Economic Forecast Project

Oxnard

• How is it doing?

• Compared to …


How is Oxnard doing?

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectSo Many Influences

• International Politics

• United States

• Los Angeles

• Other Ventura County communities

• Santa Barbara County

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectPopulationComparisonIndex (1991 = 100)

100.0

110.7

126.6

110.3

117.2

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Oxnard

Ventura County

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectUnemployment RateVentura County8.9% 9.0%

7.8%7.5%

7.1%6.6%

5.6%4.8% 4.5% 4.6%

5.4% 5.3%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Los Angeles County’sIs 6.8%

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectTotal Employment (jobs)Oxnard Metro Area

38,276

45,530

50,572 49,003

54,204 55,07157,053

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectEmploymentComparisonIndex (1991 = 100)

100.0

136.2

124.6

146.0

145.2

150.7

123.6

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Oxnard Metro Area

Ventura County

UCSB Economic Forecast Project1-Year Employment Growth by IndustryOxnard Metro Area - 2003

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Agriculture

Mining

Construction

Durable Goods

Non-Durable Goods

Trans., Comm. & Utilities

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Finance, Ins. & Real Estate

Services

jobs

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectEmployment Distribution (jobs)Oxnard Metro Area - 2003

10,859

187

1,823

3,034

2,959

2,840

2,653

10,192

2,961

17,280

Agriculture

Mining

Construction

Durable Manufacturing

Non-Durable Manufacturing

Trans., Comm., & Utilities

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Finance, Ins.& Real Estate

Other Services

Other Services include:Repair-MaintenanceLaundryReligionCivicProfessional…….

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectSalary Comparison ($ per worker)Oxnard Metro Area - 2003

21,270

34,291

38,703

58,171

33,415

39,174

39,552

22,017

50,026

37,029

Agriculture

Mining

Construction

Durable Manufacturing

Non-Durable Manufacturing

Trans., Comm., & Utilities

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Finance, Ins.& Real Estate

Other Services


“Let’s talk about agriculture for a

minute.”

Bill Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectRetail Sales 1-year Growth DistributionCity of Oxnard - 2003

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Apparel Stores

Building Materials

Automobiles

Eating and Drinking

Food Stores

Service Stations

General Merchandise

Household Products

Other Retail

percent

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectHotel / Motel Room SalesOxnard City

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

1990:1 1992:1 1994:1 1996:1 1998:1 2000:1 2002:1 2004:1

millions


Oxnardand other

Ventura County cities

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2004 Hispanic Proportion of PopulationCities in Ventura County

17.0%

69.4%

31.0%

17.7%

70.2%

44.2%

75.7%

18.4%14.7%

27.0%

CamarilloFillmore

MoorparkOjai

OxnardPort

Hueneme

SantaPaula

Simi Valley

ThousandOaks

VenturaCity

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Population GrowthCities in Ventura County

1.9%1.6%

-0.7%

4.1%

0.6%

1.5% 1.4%

0.4%

2.1%

1.5%

Cama-

rillo

Fill-

more

Port

Hueneme

Moor-

park

Ojai Oxnard Simi

Valley

Santa

Paula

Thousand

Oaks

Ventura

City

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2004 Median AgeCities in Ventura County

39.4

30.2 31.4

42.5

29.4 30.6 30.2

35.338.1 37.2

Camarillo Fillmore Moorpark Ojai Oxnard PortHueneme

SantaPaula

Simi Valley ThousandOaks

VenturaCity

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Nominal Median Home PricesCities in Ventura County

$407,545

$299,083$268,231

$411,854$442,500

$345,833$369,921

$297,292

$477,186

$388,088

Cama-

rillo

Fill-

more

Port

Hueneme

Moor-

park

Ojai Oxnard Simi

Valley

Santa

Paula

Thousand

Oaks

Ventura

City

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2004 Median Household IncomeCities in Ventura County

$69,394

$52,539

$84,653

$49,089$52,744

$44,729 $45,976

$79,155$84,053

$58,114


SantaPaula


VenturaCity

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2004 Owner-Occupied HousingCities in Ventura County

73.2%

63.1%

81.7%

58.3% 57.1%

48.0%

57.0%

77.0% 75.0%

58.3%


SantaPaula


VenturaCity

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Real Gross Regional ProductMetro Regions in Ventura County

$4,764.2

$6,605.8

$4,605.9

$788.1

$6,261.4

$10,656.4

Cama-rillo

Oxnard SimiValley

SantaPaula

VenturaCity

ThousandOaks

millions

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Real GRP per WorkerMetro Regions in Ventura County

Paula City

$134,605$118,108

$127,830

$101,042$113,850

$172,418

Camarillo Oxnard Simi Santa Ventura ThousandOaks

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Real Retail SalesCities in Ventura County

$511

$64 $48 $87 $63

$1,430

$842

$104

$1,708

$1,259

Cama-

rillo

Fill-

more

Port

Hueneme

Moor-

park

Ojai Oxnard Simi

Valley

Santa

Paula

Thousand

Oaks

Ventura

City

millions

UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Real Retail Sales Per CapitaCities in Ventura County

$8.4

$4.4

$2.2 $2.5

$7.9 $7.9$7.2

$3.6

$13.8

$12.1

Cama-rillo

Fill-more

PortHueneme

Moor-park

Ojai Oxnard SimiValley

SantaPaula

ThousandOaks

VenturaCity

thousands

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectOxnard is Changing

• Agriculture

• Military

• Industry

• Commuters

• Demographics


An Introduction

to Baby Boomers


“What a drag it is getting old.”

Mick Says:


“For the rest of history, there are unlikely ever

again to be more toddlers than grey

heads.”

The Economist Says:


Baby Boomers

• are starting to retire

• are going to inherit $3 to $5 trillion

• like coastal California

• are used to getting what they want

• will get what they want

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectInteresting Facts

• Longer life does not imply more years of ill health.

• The onset of old age is related to years remaining, not age.

• Early gains in life expectancy were a result of childhood issues.

• Recent gains have impacted the years after retirement.

• In 2003, over half of all Harley-Davidson buyers were over 45.

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectJust the Numbers, Ma’am

• In 1963 there were 11 centenarians.

• In 2003 there were 2050 centenarians.

• By 2050 expect over a million centenarians.

• The first person to live to 150 years of age is probably already born.


Things Baby Boomers Buy

• Sports cars and Harleys

• Travel and cruises

• Exercise machines and electronic stuff

• Beauty aids and cosmetic surgery

• Viagra and hormone-replacement pills

• Hip and knee replacements


“Better to burn out than to fade

away.”

Neil Young Says:


Building Oxnard

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectNominal Median Home PriceCity of Oxnard

$167,000$148,000 $139,300 $149,000

$165,800$198,700

$233,900

$277,100

$345,800

$412,600

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004


“Look for Oxnard real estate prices to continue their

upward trend.”

Bill Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectHousing AffordabilityVentura County

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectHousing DensityCity of Oxnard

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

people per household


92 94 96 98 00 02 04

387 367

253 227290

425348

448

1145

1032

473

785

1083

503

1146

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

MULTIPLE-FAMILY HOMES

Total New Residential Building PermitsCity of Oxnard

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectNew Non-Res Bldg. Permit Value by TypeCity of Oxnard

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

$ millions

Industrial

Retail

Office

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectTotal Building Permit Value & GrowthCity of Oxnard

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

line: $ millions


“What are we going to do about farm-worker housing?”

Bill Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectThe Forecast

– Outside Influences

– Macro Trends

– Short Term


Outside Influences


The United States Economy


Bill Says:

“Unless something goes seriously wrong, the national economy looks pretty good.”


How Bad is the California Economy?

Maybe not as bad as you think.

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectJob Growth Rates

Percent Change From Prior Year

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

United States

California


California Issues

• Budget

• Energy

• Housing Costs

• Workers Compensation Insurance

• Health Insurance

• Tort Law

• High costs

• Onerous Regulation


What about the new Governor?

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectClint Eastwood Says:

“A man has got to know

his limitations.”


“California is unlikely to see per-capita economic growth

rates comparable to that of the United

States.”

Bill Says:


Trends


Remember the

Baby Boomers

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectDisplay (Retail) AdvertisingTri-Counties

100.0

122.1122.1131.0 128.1

115.0

102.4

75.1

93.1101.4

109.3 110.1102.7

91.8

68.2

93.8101.9

116.3

97.5

2002:01 2002:04 2002:07 2002:10 2003:01 2003:04 2003:07 2003:10 2004:01 2004:04 2004:07

Jan. 2002 = 100

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectLines of Help Wanted AdsTri-Counties

100.0

113.8

129.1 129.7

95.7

77.8

100.1107.7

112.4 111.2

88.5

67.9

102.2

113.2122.6

110.3

2002:01 2002:04 2002:07 2002:10 2003:01 2003:04 2003:07 2003:10 2004:01 2004:04 2004:07

Jan. 2002 = 100


Trends

• Los Angeles County

• Santa Barbara County

• Other Ventura County communities


TheShort Run

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectVentura CountyOutput Share of Tri-Counties

54.8%55.9% 55.4%

56.5%

59.0%60.0%

61.2%61.4% 61.7%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal Gross Regional Product GrowthOxnard Metro Area

6.2%

2.6%

11.8%

6.7%

-0.9%

13.2%

10.2%

13.2%

6.2%

8.1%

6.6%

3.8% 4.0%

6.0%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal GRP per Worker GrowthOxnard Metro Area

3.0%

-1.6%-2.0%-1.9%-3.0%

23.7%

4.1%

7.8%

0.8%

8.7%

4.3%2.2%1.8%1.8%

3.5%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectOxnard Metro AreaOutput Share of Ventura County

14.5%16.3% 16.6% 17.0%

15.9%16.7% 16.6% 16.9%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectTotal Employment (jobs)Oxnard Metro Area

38,276

45,530

50,572 49,003

54,204 55,07157,053

59,650

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectTotal Employment GrowthOxnard Metro Area

3.1%4.2%

14.1%

8.7%

2.1%

-8.5%

5.9%5.0%5.3%

-0.5%

2.2%1.6%2.0% 2.4%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectNominal Average SalaryOxnard Metro Area

$20,855 $21,487 $20,847

$27,269$29,422

$33,033$34,393

$36,791

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal Average Salary GrowthOxnard Metro Area

-0.8%-1.7%

0.8%

-2.1%-4.1%

19.5%

6.1%4.0%

-1.9%

7.3%

-1.5%-0.7%

0.1%-0.3%

2.3%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectNominal Median Home PriceCity of Oxnard

$167,000$148,000 $139,300 $149,000

$165,800$198,700

$233,900

$277,100

$345,800

$412,600

$464,000

$506,900

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal Median Home Price GrowthCity of Oxnard

-5.7%-6.5%-8.8%

-5.7%-3.3%

0.2%

3.5%

8.7%

16.0%13.9%

15.3%

21.6%

16.8%

9.9%

6.6%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal Retail Sales per Capita GrowthCity of Oxnard

-5.2%-4.2%

12.0%

1.8% 1.5%2.4%

8.4%

-7.3%

2.8% 2.7%

0.4%

2.3% 2.5%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006


Bill Says:

“Oxnard is still creating itself. It will

be a very different place in 10 years.”


Thank you.

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www.ucsb-efp.com

Documents

UCSB Economic Forecast Project The City of Oxnard Economic Outlook Bill Watkins September 15, 2004