Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
U. S. Drought 2012+WorldU. S. Drought 2012+World
Allen Motew Director QT Weather QT Information Systems,
Inc. Chicago Board of Trade 312-896-
2072 [email protected]
WeatherWeather
From the ground, it looks like this…
From Space It Looks Like This
To A Meteorologist It Looks Like This
H
Too Little Rain, Too Much Early Heat June 6-July 6
For history it will register as this
Last Year it looked like this…
Corn Yields ended at this… 147.2 -3.6%
How did we end up with droughts over the past two
years?(w/o mentioning global warming?)
Blame It On La Nina?
What Is “La Nina” ?
La Nina “effects” past 2 years
Water Temps Cool During La Nina(now warming!)
Presto…The Weather Changes
(not!)
A COSTLY FOOLER…early planting of big acreage
(USDA said 164 bu./acre…now ?)May 5, 2012
Past Year
LA NINA
EL NINO
ENSO Conditions past 60 years
El Nino Normally Brings This!(summer tropical moisture into mix)
Monsoonal Moisture Enters West
Moisture “Movement” Improves
Lingering La Nina Brought This
Both neutral ENSO Summers came off La Nina winters. Both ended with summer
drought, but shifted location
Vegetation Year Over Year
When “Realized”It’s was Up, Up and Away with futures!
How Do We Mend Things…need a lot of rain
VEG HEALTH-O.K For Some
North America-Veg Health
“The Outlook”
El Nino Effects Finally “Kick In” ?
Changes Are Slow
“HELLO, EL NINO, HELLO ENHANCED MONSOON?”
(GOOD U.S./BAD INDIA)
August Precipitation (DRY)
August Temperatures (HOT)
Sept Soil Moisture (mm)
Next 16 days
EL NINO FALL/WINTER
Nov and Dec Temp Forecast
NOV- DEC PRECIP
JAN-FEB-MAR PRECIP
JAN-FEB-MAR (TEMP)
International Outlook
El Nino Effects Globally
GLOBAL VEGETATION(Week Ago)
Eyes On South America
SEPT-OCT-NOV
PRECIP
OCT-NOV-DEC
PRECIP
TEMPS
NOV-DEC-JAN
PRECIPPRECIP
TEMPS
AustraliaAUG-SEPT-OCT
PRECIP
OCT-NOV-DEC
PRECIP
INDIA MONSOONAUG-SEP-OCT
INDIA MONSOONOCT-NOV-DEC
Europe
Asia-Veg Health
RUSSIA-VEG HEALTH
UKRAINE-VEG HEALTH
Kazakhstan-Veg Health
FRANCE
GERMANY
POLAND
IT’S RELATIVECompare…INDIA-VEG HEALTH
CHINA-VEG HEALTH
BRAZIL
Summer (A-S-O)
Temperatures
In Summary
Rains: have been increasing in North, East and South. Monsoon to help?Drought Heat through August per CFSv2INTERNATIONAL…Monsoon lagging in India. Trouble in Australia, Indonesia, Ukraine/KazhkstanGlobe Hot next 3 months per IRI El Nino rains in South America, South U.S., Ohio Valley winter dry?
Thank you for listening!Thank you for listening!
HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR SUMMER!HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR SUMMER!
QT INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INC.WWW.QTINFO.COM
New product! QT Marketcenter
