European Network ofTransmission System Operators

for Electricity

Energy

Biomethane

GHG

Beyond

Paris

COP21

CO2

Climate Targets

2050NECP

Net-zero

Bio-energy

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Hydrogen

Methane

Carbon Capture

Europe

Power-to-gas

Sector coupling

Decarbonised economy

Renewable energy

Carbon budget

Electricity

Hybrid System

Gas

TYNDP 2022SCENARIO STORYLINE REPORT

Scenarios

Distributed Energy

Global Ambition

National Trends

Global Ambition CMYK 80C 20MRGB 0/155/217

CMYK 30C 100YRGB 184/14/128

CMYK 60M 100YRGB 238/125/0

Distributed Energy

National Trends

Global Ambition CMYK 80C 20MRGB 0/155/217

CMYK 30C 100YRGB 184/14/128

CMYK 60M 100YRGB 238/125/0

Distributed Energy

National Trends

Global Ambition CMYK 80C 20MRGB 0/155/217

CMYK 30C 100YRGB 184/14/128

CMYK 60M 100YRGB 238/125/0

Distributed Energy

National Trends

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 3

Contents

Contents 3

1 Introduction to TYNDP 2022 Scenarios 4

2 Scenario framework and consultation scope 6

3 Draft scenario storylines for TYNDP 2022 8 3.1 Distributed Energy (DE), storyline A 10 3.2GlobalAmbition(GA),storylineB 11

4 Storyline development methodology and scenario drivers 12

5 Quantification of key parameter ranges 17 5.1 Demand 18 5.2 Supply 22 5.3Flexibilityoptions 26

6 Stakeholder engagement for the TYNDP 2022 storylines 28

7 Next steps 31

Annex: Storyline Matrix 32

Glossary 34

List of Figures & Tables 35

External study references 36

Imprint 37

Webinar 38

4 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

Introduction to TYNDP 2022 Scenarios1

What is this report about?

1  Link to consultation questionnaire

Regulation (EU) 347/2013 requires that the ENTSO-E and ENTSOG use scenarios for their respective Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs) 2022. The developmentofthescenariosmarksthefirststepintheTYNDP 2022 process. Defining the scenarios in turn beginswiththedevelopmentofthe(qualitative)storylinesto be explored. In a webinar on 3 July 2020 ENTSOG and ENTSO-EpresentedtheirfirstideasfortheTYNDP2022storylines. Several stakeholders provided comments and feedback.ThisdraftstorylinereportproposesthescenarioframeworkforTYNDP2022,consistingofonenationalpolicy scenario and the storyline development of two top-down scenarios.

All stakeholders are invited to provide feedback to the scenario framework and proposals for the two top down scenarios.Afiveweekonlineconsultationwillrunfrom3November2020until15December20201. Your feed-back is welcomed and considered an important part of theprocess.BasedonyourfeedbackENTSO-EandENT-SOG will update and develop the storylines to be used in TYNDP2022.ThesestorylinesarethefoundationofthescenariobuildingquantificationphasethatENTSOGandENTSO-E will perform next year. This modelling will result in full energy scenarios including accompanying datasets which will be consulted in 2021.

Why do ENTSOG and ENTSO-E build scenarios together?

Joint scenarios are a key step towards an interlinked approach to energy system analysis. Joint scenarios allow ENTSO-E and ENTSOG to undertake infrastructure analysis from a common and consistent set of assump-tions and data. The TYNDP 2018 was the first time ENTSOG and ENTSO-E cooperated jointly on scenario development. For the TYNDP 2020 the scenario building process was further expanded and improved. Since there are strong synergies and co-dependencies between gas and electricity infrastructures, it is increasingly important to understand the impact of European policies that aim to achieve a carbon-neutral European energy system by 2050.

Joint scenarios allow ENTSOG and ENTSO-E to assess future infrastructure needs and projects against the same future outlooks. The TYNDP 2022 scenarios go beyond the EU-27 to the ENTSO-E & ENTSOG perimeters, which includes members, observers and associated partners. In totalover80participants,coveringmorethan35countries,are directly involved in the process. Gas and electricity TSOs incorporate the technical knowledge and experience toprovidebothquantitativeandEuropeanfocusedscenar-iosthatdemonstratehowtheenergytransitionwillimpactthe European electricity and gas systems; along with an assessment of the challenges for the long-term horizon.

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 5

The outcome of the joint scenario development process providesdecisionmakerswithimportantinformation,astheyseektomakeinformedchoicesthatwillbenefitallEuropeanconsumers.CombiningtheeffortsfromgasandelectricityTSOsoffersENTSOGandENTSO-Eanopportu-nitytoleveragecross-sectorialandcountryspecificknowl-edgeandexpertisethatwouldotherwisebemissing.Jointworking provides access to a broader range of stakeholders

whoareactivelyparticipatingintheenergysector.Thescenario building process for TYNDP 2022 builds on the workfrompreviouseditionsandaimstocontinuallyim-prove the overall quality, level of detail and transparency. The purpose is to grant stakeholders access and enable the use of scenario data to understand what is required to deliveracleanerandbetterenergysystemforeveryoneof Europe.

What is the goal of the TYNDP scenarios and their storylines?

AsoutlinedinRegulation(EU)347/2013,ENTSOGandENTSO-E are required to use scenarios as the basis for the officialTYNDP(createdeverytwoyearsbyENTSO-EandENTSOG)andalsoforthecalculationoftheCost-BenefitAnalysis(CBA)usedasaninputtoassessEUelectricityand gas infrastructure Projects of Common Interest (PCI). ENTSOGandENTSO-Edesigntheirscenariosspecificallyfor this purpose. The scenarios are intended to project the long-term energy supply and demand considering the ongoing energy transition. Furthermore, the scenarios drawextensivelyonthecurrentpoliticalandeconomicconsensus and attempt to follow a logical trajectory to achieve future energy and climate targets.

Thescenariosandtheirstorylinesaredesignedtoreflectthe EU policy goals and strategies, including the Energy EfficiencyFirstprinciple,suchthattheyspecificallyexploretheuncertaintiesthatarerelevanttothedevelopmentofgas and electricity infrastructure. As such, they primarily focusonaspectswhichdetermineinfrastructureutilisation.The differences between the scenario storylines are thereforepredominantlyrelatedtopossiblevariationsindemandandsupplypatterns.Tothisend,allthescenariosdeveloped within the TYNDP 2022 framework remain technology, source and energy-carrier neutral.

What is new in the TYNDP 2022 storyline report?

The previous storyline report for TYNDP 2020 was lim-itedtodescriptive(qualitative)informationonly.Duetoalackofquantitativefiguressomestakeholderfounditchallengingtocommentontheproposedstorylines.BasedonthisfeedbackthedraftstorylinereportforTYNDP2022nowincorporatesquantitativerangesforsomeofthekeystoryline parameters. These ranges can be found in chapter 5andillustratehowthestorylinesdifferfromoneanother.It should be noted however that a full dataset can only be providedafterthescenariomodellinghasbeenperformed.

InthepublicconsultationoftheTYNDP2020scenarioreport several stakeholders also perceived a lack of differentiation between the scenarios. Although this concern was addressed in the final scenario report published in June 2020, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E aim to furtherimprovethisforthenextedition.ThejointWorkingGroupScenarioBuilding(WGSB)extensivelyanalysedthemain scenario drivers to be explored in the storylines in ordertoensureappropriatelydifferentiatedTYNDP2022 scenarios. More details are provided in chapter 4.

Where do we stand today in the scenario development process?

Thescenariostorylinesarethefirststepinthescenariobuilding process. A more detailed description of the complete process can be found in chapter 7.

Figure1:Scenariobuildingprocess

Q3 Q4Start 2021 Start 2022

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Stor

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Rep

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cons

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Scenario storylines

Methodologies

Modelling Draft Report Final ReportUpdate

Inte

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hop

6 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

Scenario framework and consultation scope2

Scenarios will cover different time horizons

2 EUclimateactionandtheEuropeanGreenDeal,link

The scenario building process for the TYNDP 2022 builds ontheworkofpreviouseditions.TheTYNDPprocesshasshownthatscenarioshavetocombinedifferentexpecta-tionsalongtheirtimehorizon:supportinginfrastructureproject assessment, analyzing investment needs or illus-tratingtheshapeofprospectiveenergysystems.Inparallelthereisanexpectationthattheshorttermtimehorizonreflectsexistingtrendsandlegislation,whilelong-term

scenarios should be compliant with the EU policy goals, including the European Green Deal and the Paris Agree-mentendorsedbytheEUandallMemberStates 2.

Figure 2 illustrates how ENTSO-E and ENTSOG plan to cover the different time horizons in their scenarios for TYNDP 2022. This approach is quite similar to the TYNDP 2020 scenarios.

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 7

Forboth2022and2025a“BestEstimate”scenarioswillbedeveloped.ForthequantificationofthistimehorizonENTSOGandENTSO-Ewillusebottom-updatafromtheTSOs.ThesefiguresreflectcurrentnationalandEuropeanregulations as stated end of 2020. Additionally, the replacementofcoalbygasbasedpowergenerationwillbesimulatedasasensitivityfor2025.

The longer term goals, starting from 2030 will be coveredbythreedifferentscenarios,reflectingincreasinguncertaintiestowards2050.

- NationalTrendswillbethescenarioinlinewithnationalenergyandclimatepolicies  (NECPs 3 ,nationallong-termstrategies4,hydrogenstrategies …)derivedfromtheEuropean targets. The electricity and gas datasets for thisscenariowillbebasedonfigurescollectedfrom

3 NationalEnergyandClimatePlans,link

4  Nationallong-termstrategies,link

5 Moreinformationoncarbonbudgetcanbefoundinchapter4(GreenTransitiondriver)

the TSOs translating the latest policy- and market- driven developments as discussed at national level. The quantification of National Trends will focus on electricity and gas up to (at least) 2040. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E invite the reader to refer to the national documents to have an energy-wide perspective;

- InadditiontotheNationalTrendsscenario,whichisalignedwithnationalpolicies,ENTSOGandENTSO-Ewill develop two top-down scenarios. These will be built as full energy scenarios (all sectors, all energy carriers) inordertoquantifycompliancewithEUpoliciesandclimateambitions.Bothscenariosaimatreachingthe1.5 °CtargetoftheParisAgreementfollowingthecarbonbudgetapproach 5. They are developed on a country-level until 2040 and on an EU27-level until 2050.

Scope of the ENTSOG and ENTSO-E joint storyline consultation

TheBestEstimateandNationalTrendsscenarioshaveastrongcountry-specificnarrativethatprovidesinsightinto the evolving policies and market developments for eacharea.Theassumptionsusedinthesescenariosarealreadybeingdiscussedonanationallevel.ThatiswhyBestEstimateandNationalTrendsarenotbeingconsultedby ENTSOG and ENTSO-E. This is also in line with the legalrequirementsthatthedatasetshallreflectEuropeanUnionandMemberStatenationallawinforceatthedateofanalysis(Regulation(EU)347/2013,AnnexV,point2)and furthermore, conforms with provisions stated in (EC)

No714/2009and(EC)NO715/2009,Article8point10.Instead, the ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will provide details on thedatasourcespercountryaspartofthedraftscenarioreport due to be published mid 2021.

The two top down scenarios on the other hand require specificstorylinesdefinedonaEuropeanlevel.Thenextchapters lay out the top down storylines proposed by ENTSOG and ENTSO-E which serve as a basis for the publicconsultation.Thefeedbackreceivedwillbefactoredin the Final TYNDP 2022 storylines.

Figure2:TYNDPScenariohorizonandframework

2022 2025 205020402030

Best Estimate

TYNDP scenario horizon

Assessment of pathways compliant wit Paris Agreement

National Trends

Distributed Energy

Global AmbitionGlobal Ambition CMYK 80C 20MRGB 0/155/217

CMYK 30C 100YRGB 184/14/128

CMYK 60M 100YRGB 238/125/0

Distributed Energy

National Trends

Global Ambition CMYK 80C 20MRGB 0/155/217

CMYK 30C 100YRGB 184/14/128

CMYK 60M 100YRGB 238/125/0

Distributed Energy

National Trends

Global Ambition CMYK 80C 20MRGB 0/155/217

CMYK 30C 100YRGB 184/14/128

CMYK 60M 100YRGB 238/125/0

Distributed Energy

National Trends

8 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP2022ScenarioBuildingGuidelines

Draft scenario storylines for TYNDP 20223

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 9

Thedefinitionofeachscenarioshouldenablethegasandelectricity infrastructure assessment as part of TYNDP andTEN-Eprocesses.Inparallel,MemberStatesdefineNECPs and national long-term strategies within the Paris Agreement Framework on a regular basis, while the European Commission proposes European focused strategies. The scenario building process is designed to beincrementalanditerativeandencouragesmultilateralengagementresultinginseveralbenefits.

ThefullTYNDPprocessisachievedinthefollowingways:

- ByprovidinginsightstoMemberStatesanddecision-makers about the interactions between national strategies;

- ByensuringbothalignmentofnationalandEuropeanstrategieswhiletakingintoaccountcountryspecifics;

- Bycreatingaplatformensuringtheconsiderationofalloptionswithatechnologyneutralapproach.

Following the regulatory obligation, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have launched the scenario building process for the TYNDP 2022 and proactively engaged with a wide range of stakeholders. The proposed storylines intend to incorporatetheaforementionedprocessoutcomesbasedontheexperienceofpreviouseditionsandstakeholderfeedback.

Therefore,thekeyelementsdefiningthescenarioselectionstrategyare:

- Toreflectthelatestdevelopmentinnationalenergyandclimate policies that are in line with European green-housegasreductionambitions;

- ToacknowledgetheneedforhighambitionintermsofEuropeanenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergydeployment;

- To acknowledge the uncertainties associated with either pushing such renewable development and energy efficiencytothemaximum,orrelyingonlow-carbontechnologies and energy imports.

As these elements impact the European energy infrastruc-turetodifferentdegrees,itisnecessarytobuildtwotop-down scenarios in order to provide an appropriate basis for infrastructureassessment.Inaddition,manyintermediatepathwayscouldmaterializebasedondifferentcombina-tionsofdrivers.Nevertheless,itisexpectedthatthetwotop-down scenarios cover a wide range of possible future evolutionsofenergyinfrastructure.

It is beyond ENTSOG's and ENTSO-E's remit to favour one of the two storylines above the other. However, the similarities and the differences in the way to manage uncertainty will be highlighted.

Thefollowingtableprovidesanoverviewofstorylinedifferentiationonthebasisofthehigh-leveldrivers.

Distributed EnergyEuropeanautonomywithrenewableanddecentralisedfocus

Global AmbitionGlobaleconomywithcentralisedlowcarbonand RESoptions

Green Transition Atleast–55 % 6reductionin2030,climateneutralin2050

Driving force of the energy transition

Transitioninitiatedonlocal / nationallevel(prosumers)

TransitioninitiatedonaEuropean / internationallevel

AimsforEUenergyautonomythroughmaximisa-tionofRESandsmartsectorintegration(P2G/L)

HighEURESdevelopmentsupplementedwithlow carbonenergyandimports

Energy intentsity

Reducedenergydemandthroughcircularityandbetterenergyconsumptionbehaviour

Priorityisgiventodecarbonisationofenergysupply.Increasedeconomicactivityoffsetssomeof theenergysavings.

DigitalisationdrivenbyprosumerandvariableRESmanagement

DigitalisationandautomationreinforcecompetitivenessofEUbusinessandindustry,leadingtoincreaseexportofgoods.

Technologies

Focusofdecentralisedtechnologies (PV,batteries,etc)andsmartcharging

Focusonlargescaletechnologies (offshorewind,largestorage)

Focusonelectricheatpumpsanddistrictheating Focusonhybridheatingtechnology

HighershareofEV,withe-liquidsandbiofuelssupplementingforheavytransport

Widerangeoftechnologiesacrossmobilitysectors(electricity,hydrogenandbiofuels)

MinimalCCSandnuclear IntegrationofnuclearandCCS

Table1: Storylinesdifferentiationbasedonhigh-leveldrivers

6 ThisfigurestemsfromtheECproposalfortheGreenDeal.IfthistargetwouldchangeasvotedbytheEuropeanParliamentthescenarioassumptionswillbeadaptedaccordingly.

Global Ambition CMYK 80C 20MRGB 0/155/217

CMYK 30C 100YRGB 184/14/128

CMYK 60M 100YRGB 238/125/0

Distributed Energy

National Trends

Global Ambition CMYK 80C 20MRGB 0/155/217

CMYK 30C 100YRGB 184/14/128

CMYK 60M 100YRGB 238/125/0

Distributed Energy

National Trends

10 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

3.1 Distributed Energy (DE), storyline A

This scenario pictures a pathway achieving EU-27 carbon neutralityby2050andatleast55 %emissionreductionin2030. The scenario is driven by a willingness of the society to achieve energy autonomy based on widely available indigenous renewable energy sources. It translates into bothaway-of-lifeevolutionandstrongdecentraliseddrivetowardsdecarbonisationthroughlocalinitiativesbycitizens,communitiesandbusinesses,supportedbyauthorities.

On the demand side this means a strong commitment to reduce energy consumption through renovation and insulation of residential and commercial buildings, a decrease in individual mobility and a high circularity in the industrialsector.TechnologiessuchasheatpumpsandEVsensurethehighefficiencygainsnecessarytolimitdemand,soitisbalancedbypotentialenergyproductionatlocal,nationalandEuropeanlevels.

On the supply side, public acceptance for a very ambi-tiousRESdevelopmentisachieved.Thedevelopmentof prosumer behaviours become common place as citizens gainabetterunderstandingoftheenergysystemanditsimpact on climate. Further to this, higher involvement of citizensinlocalRESprojects(e. g.PV,windturbines,districtheating/cooling,geothermalandbiomass)iscrucialtomeetthis challenge.

Specific European legislation sets the decarbonisation frameworkofactivitiesmanagedatEuropeanscalesuchasaviation,shippingandsomeindustrialsectors.Inparallel,hard-to-decarbonize sectors that currently rely on fossil fuelimportsswitchtobio-andsyntheticfuels(derivedfromelectrolysis of renewable electricity) produced in Europe.

From an electricity system perspective, strong increase ofheatpumpsandEVsresultsinadeepelectrificationoffinalusedemand.Thisdemandismetbymaximisingtheuse of wind and solar, which results in a power system with little dispatchable thermal generation remaining. The dispatchable capacities that are available are based on solid biomass and power plants fuelled by renewable gas.Demand-sideflexibilitysolutionsarerequired,sothathour-by-hour the electricity system can remain in balance. Inresidentialandtertiarysectors,theuseofhomebatteriesandsmartchargingofEVscansupportshorttermbalanc-ing of the electricity grids. Large consumers in agriculture, industryanddistrictheatingareabletoprovideflexibilitythrough demand side response (moving tasks to an earlier or latertimeperiod)andflexible(hybrid)powertoheat.Sectorintegrationthroughtheproductionofstorableenergyintheform of gas and liquids by electrolysis provides seasonal flexibilitytotheelectricitysystem.

ThefactorsinfluencingthedesignoftheEuropeanenergysystemarethedevelopmentoflocaloptimization(circu-larity, prosumers), the need to connect huge amounts of RESenergyandflexibilitymanagementfromageographicalandtemporalperspective.TheavailableEuropeanprimaryenergy sources require the coupling between energy carriers and infrastructures to cover the energy demand throughout all sectors.

The achievement of European energy autonomy on the basis of renewable energy relies on a range of prerequisites such as:

- The public acceptance of energy infrastructures and hostingofgenerationtechnologiesassociatedwiththemaximisation of RES development across the whole Europe;

- TheunderstandingandwillingnessofEuropeancitizensto adapt their behaviour in order to minimize energy demandandfullyparticipatetothesystemadequacy;

- The maturity of technologies (hydrogen fuel cell, batteries,DSR,etc.)ensuring:

 _ the security of the electricity system with limited dispatchablegeneration

 _ production of synthetic fuels for hard to electrify processes in absence of energy imports

This scenario targets European energy autonomy and as a consequence, sourcing low carbon energy imports fromglobalmarketsisnotprioritised.Thisfocusdiscardspossible(economicandcompetitiveness)opportunitiesinfavourofageopoliticalprioritytobemoreself-sufficient.

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 11

3.2 Global Ambition (GA), storyline B

This scenario pictures a pathway to achieving carbon neutralityby2050andatleast55 %emissionreductionin2030, driven by a fast and global move towards the Paris Agreement targets. It translates into development of a very wide range of technologies (many being centralised) and the use of global energy trade as a tool to accelerate decarbonisation.

This scenario takes a global CO2 avoided cost approach todefinetheevolutionoftheenergysystem.Itconsidersthe full scope of available technologies and energy sources to reduce CO2 emissions at the lowest possible cost. It requires a holistic approach of the energy mix where demandandsupplyareconsideredtogetherwhendefiningthemostefficientactions.

On the demand side, there is a fast development of energy andcost-efficienttechnologiessuchasEVsforpassengertransport and heat pumps for residential and tertiary heating.Incoldareaswithexistingwidespreadgasdistri-butioninfrastructure,hybridheatpumpsofferoptimizationpotentialforloweringtheneedofdeeprenovationandprovidingflexibilitytotheelectricitysystem.Electricitytechnologies are complemented by a wide range of solutionslikebioLNG,biomethaneandfuelcellelectricvehicles(FCEV).Europebenefitsofbiomassconversioninto liquid and gas as well as low carbon energy imports. Intheindustrythesubstitutionofnaturalgasbyhydrogenandbiomethanereducesadaptationcost.

Europeandecarbonisationeffortisstronglydrivenbyahigh European RES development complemented by energy importsandlow-carbonsolutions.Thisleadstoagreatvariety of energy carriers used like electricity, hydrogen, biomethaneandsyntheticbiofuels.CCSisanoptiontosupportdecarbonisationofsomeindustrialprocesses;andtoachievenegativeemissionswherebio/syntheticfuelsareusedwithinthenexttenyearsaninternationalmarketfor hydrogen and biofuels is established, which rapidly expandsafter2030.

ThisoffersEuropetheopportunitytoimportcompetitivegreenhydrogenandderivedfuels,playingatwofoldrole:

- Providing gaseous and liquid fuels for hard-to-decar-bonise sectors while avoiding the conversion loss of Europeanenergyproduction;

- Preserving the link to the global energy market price.

Activitiesparticipatingtoglobaltrade(aviation,shippingand a wide range of industrial sectors) align on global decarbonisation solutions in order to avoid any loss of competitiveness. Industrial sectors strengthen their competitivepositionthroughautomationanddigitalpro-duction.Asaconsequence,partoftheenergyefficiencygaininEuropeisoffsetbyincreasedeconomicactivityandproductioninsourcing..

From an electricity system perspective, renewable de-ploymentisoptimizedatEuropeanlevelinordertoseekbothcostefficiencyandbuildpublicacceptance.GlobaleffortsseeoffshorewindasmajortechnologyinnorthernEurope with the formation of North Sea Energy Hubs while centralised solar is leading in the south of Europe. Nuclear power complements the energy mix to a limited extent,largelyledbynationalenergypolicies.Moreover,thepowersectorwillalsobenefitfromthedevelopmentofbiomethaneinthemethanemixwhichenablesnegativeemissions to compensate for hard-to-decarbonise sectors. Despitetheexistenceofdispatchablegenerationthereisstillsomeneedforadditionalflexibility,tobeprovidedbyutility-scalebatteries,demand-sidemanagement(includinghybridheatpumps)andsmartchargingofEVs.

Thereisaprogressiveevolutionofthetransitiontowardsa net-zero European energy system. This energy system is characterised by a balanced energy mix of electricity, gas and biofuels sourced by renewable development and imports. A balanced share of energy carriers and split of end user technologies means that the need for conversion of electricity to gas and liquid is limited.

The materialisation of a scenario based on Euro-pean renewable, that are complemented by low carbon technology use and energy imports, relies on the following key prerequisites:

- Thepublicacceptanceandeconomiccompetitivenessof nuclear and CCS technologies within Europe;

- TheavailabilityofcompetitivelowcarbonenergyforEuropean imports by 2050

12 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

Thissectiongivesstakeholdersmoreinformationonthemethodologies and guiding factors that shape the top-down scenario storylines.

The storylines are a key step to ensure differentiated and consistent scenarios. They aim at contrasted views on future energy demand and supply patterns to test infrastructure needs within the TYNDP process. ENTSOG andENTSO-Euseatop-downmethodologytoidentifyanddefinecontrastingpolitical,societalandtechnologyunderlyingchoices–socalled“high-leveldrivers”.

Toexplaintheconceptsomeexamplesareuseful:

1. Electrification is mentioned from time to time as a driverortargetperse;howeveritoftenresultsfromhigherlevelchoices,leadtotheadoptionofelectric-ity-usingtechnologies(e.g.efficiencyofheatpumps).Moreover,thepenetrationofelectricappliancesdifferswithin sectors.

2. In transport the use of energy carriers will depend on technology choices that are likely to differ between private road transport and aviation. All in all, technologies and their future market shares are identifiedasonespecifichigh-leveldriveraspartofthestorylines.

Storyline development methodology and scenario drivers4

Figure3:Howtospecifystorylinecharacteristics(example)

TECHNOLOGIES

PRIVATE TRANSPORT

LOW TEMPERATURE HEAT DEMAND

EV/ FCEV/ ICE / GAS CARS ETC.

DISTRICT HEATING / (HYBRID) HEAT PUMPS / GAS CONDENSING BOILERS ETC.

High-Level Driver

Dimension

Characteristics

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 13

Storylinesaimtoensuresufficientdifferencesaremadebetweenthescenariosbycorrectlyidentifyinghigh-leveldriversandquantifyingtheoutcomes.Akeysuccessfac-tor to understanding these drivers is by ongoing dialogue

7 IPCCSpecialReport1.5,Chapter2,FigureSPM.3b,IPCC,2018

8 2030ClimateandEnergyFramework,EC,link

9 Regulationonthegovernanceoftheenergyunionandclimateaction,EC,link

10 EuropeanGreenDeal,EC,link

11 EnergySystemIntegrationStrategy,link

12 EUHydrogenStrategy,link

13 StateoftheUnion2020,link

14 EUParliamentvotesfor60%carbonemissionscutby2030,link

with NGOs, policy makers and industrial companies at EU level.BasedonthisengagementprocessENTSOGandENTSO-Eidentifiedfourhighleveldrivers;illustratedinFigure 4.

Green Transition

Green Transition reflects the level of GHG reduction targetsandisoneofthemostimportantpoliticaldriversof energy scenarios. The European Union has ratified the Paris Agreement. This implies a commitment to the long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperaturetowellbelow2 °Ccomparedtopre-industriallevelsandtopursueeffortstolimittheincreaseto1.5 °C.Sincetherearedifferentemissionmitigationpathways 7 as described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermediate targets for 2030 and 2050 andacarbonbudgetupto2100havetobedefined.

ThecurrentEUdecarbonisationtargetsaredefinedunderthe2030ClimateandEnergyFramework 8(atleast40 %cuts in GHG emissions from 1990 levels). For 2050, there areonlynon-bindingdecarbonisationtargets(80to95 %

cuts in GHG emission from 1990 levels). These overall EU targets are accompanied by NECP, which each Member State had to submit to the European Commission by the endof2019undertheRegulationonthegovernanceoftheenergyunionandclimateaction 9.

However, the European Commission has announced its European Green Deal on the 11thofDecember2019 10 and since then published several policy strategies, among oth-ersitsEnergySystemIntegrationStrategy 11 (ESI) and EU HydrogenStrategy 12 for the European Union. On the 17th ofSeptember2020theEuropeanCommissionreconfirmeditsproposalofreducingGHGemissionbyatleast–55 %by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050; this was accom-paniedbyasupportingimpactassessment 13. Moreover, on the6th of October 2020, the European Parliament voted for climateneutralitygoalby2050inEUlegislation.Andatthesametimetheyrequestamoreambitious2030target,call-ingemissionstobereducedby60 %in2030comparedto1990 14.ThedraftTYNDP2022StorylineReportisbasedontheassumptionthatanewEUClimateLawdrivenbythe Green Deal will consider at least –55 %GHGemissionsreductionin2030comparedto1990.

GREEN TRANSITIONclimate ambitions

ENERGY INTENSITYCircularity vs comfort

DRIVING FORCE OF ENERGY TRANSITION

Decentralised vs centralisedSelf-sufficiency vs imports

TECHNOLOGIESSupply, Demand, Sector Coupling (incl. hydrogen),

E&G Flexibilities

Figure4:High-LevelDriversoftop-downscenarios

GREEN TRANSITION

ENERGY INTENSITY

DRIVING FORCE OF ENERGY TRANSITION

TECHNOLOGIES

14 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

Moreover, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E acknowledge that setting GHG emissions targets for 2030 and 2050 is notsufficientforkeepingtemperaturerisebelow1.5 °C.As a result, the scenarios will consider a carbon budget including emissions and removals from agriculture and from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). BasedontheexchangewithCANEuropefortheTYNPD

15 BasedonexchangewithCANEurope

16 Shareofrenewablesingrossinlandconsumption,EC,link

17 EUimportsin2018,EC,link

2020 Scenarios, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E consider a carbon budgetfortheEU27from2018 – 2100of42,2 GtCO2eq percapitaand33,8 GtCO2eq by equity. The scenario buildingexercisewillresultinadecarbonisationpathwaytill 2050 and ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will transparently present the cumulative emissions of their scenarios in comparison with the carbon budget assumed for the EU27.

Side Note 15: Carbon BudgetCarbonbudgetsrefertothenettotalofCO�thatcanbeemit-tedinagiventimeperiodtakingintoaccountthetotalCO�thatisremovedinthesameperiod.Hence,carbonbudgetsincludeemissionsandremovalsfromLULUCF.

TheIPCCSpecialReportonwarmingof1.5 °C(SR1.5-2018)showswhy1.5 °Cisacriticalthresholdandassesses1.5 °Ccompatiblecarbonbudgets.ThesecarbonbudgetsinSR1.5arehigher than those in the IPCC'sFifthAssessmentRe-port (AR5-2014),mainly because of an effort of rebasing.The “Summary for PolicyMakers of SR1.5” provides four1.5 °Ccompatiblecarbonbudgets(forglobalCO�emissions),withdifferencesdueto:

–likelihoodof stayingwithin the temperature threshold:50 % or 66 % (which is an expression of the number ofscenariosthatallowacertaincarbonbudget);

–meansoftemperaturemeasurement:basedoncomputermodellingonly(globalmeansurfaceairtemperature)orcomputermodellingcombinedwithreal-timeobservati-ons(GMST).

ThecarbonbudgetsintheIPCCreportsrefertotheavailablebudgetsforCO�-emissions,whiletheytakeintoaccountacertainlimitedreductionpathwayfornon-CO�emissions.Assumingstringentemissionreductionsofnon-CO�gases,inlinewiththedeepreductionsofCO�emissionsneededfor1.5 °Ccompatiblebudgets,couldhelpinconvertingCO�-budgetsintogreenhousegasbudgetsthatwouldaccordingtoSR1.5CoordinatingLeadAuthorJoeriRogeljbeapproxi-mately25 %higher.

Based on abovementioned parameters and assumptionstheglobal carbonbudget is 712 GtCO� from2018onwardstill the end of the century. There are multiple ways todividetheglobalcarbonbudgetacrosscountries.Themainapproachestakepopulationand/orequityintoaccount.

Driving force of the Energy Transition

Beyondclimatetargets,theEuropeanenergysystemwillbeincreasinglyshapedbysocietaldecisionsandinitiativesactingasa driving force of the energy transition. Today, the EUimportsaccountforalmost60 %ofitsprimaryenergydemand, but the import needs differ highly from fuel to fuel and country to country. These large imports entering Europe through a limited number of points together with largescalethermalpowergenerationunitshaveshapedarather centralised European energy system.

There is rapid decline of the indigenous gas production within the EU, amongst others noteworthy factors are the future shut down of the Groningen field and the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU-28. At least in the short to medium term, the EU-27 will need to import a higher share of its currently forecasted growth in gas demand. It is worthstatingthattheuptakeofrenewables 16 has not led tolowerimportsharesoverthepast20years 17. At the same time,continueddependenceonenergyimportsisperceivedasariskbysomestakeholdersduetouncertaintiesinthegeopoliticalcontext.Inaddition,theneedtoswitchtolowcarbonorrenewableimportstriggersthequestionoftheirlong-termavailability.SuchavailabilitycanbenegativelyimpactedbyaslowenergytransitionofproducingcountriesorasituationofhighglobaldemandwhereEuropewouldbeaprice-taker.ThesestakeholdersfavourthemaximisationoftheEURESpotentialfacilitatedbylocalinitiativesandagreaterparticipationofprosumersintheoperationofthe

GREEN TRANSITION

ENERGY INTENSITY

DRIVING FORCE OF ENERGY TRANSITION

TECHNOLOGIES

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 15

energy system as described in the Clean Energy Package. Following that path would move the structure of the energy system away from its current centralised structure.

Regarding hydrogen, the ESI and EU Hydrogen Strategy illustrate the duality of the driving forces. The ESI emphasizesthebenefitsof“linkingupthedifferentenergycarriers and through localized production, self-produc-tion and smart use of distributed energy supply. System integration can also contribute to greater consumer empowerment,improvedresilienceandsecurityofsupply”.TheEUHydrogenStrategyalsoforesees“cooperationop-portunitieswithneighbouringcountriesandregionsoftheEU”andtheestablishmentofa“globalhydrogenmarket”.The strategies of EU Member States present a wide range ofperspectives,withsomeNECPsandNationallong-term

18 INTERNATIONALHYDROGENSTRATEGIES,LudwigBölkowSystemtechnikandWorldEnergyCouncil,2020

strategiesaimingatastrongreductionofenergyimportswhile some hydrogen strategies emphasize the need for globalcooperationforafuturehydrogeneconomy.Onaglobal scale, similar trends can be seen in Japan and Korea asimportingcountriesandMorocco,AustraliaorNorwayaspossiblehydrogenexportingcountries.18

Thelevelofdecentralisationandautonomycanstronglyimpact the structure of the European energy system and therefore the need of infrastructure. At present there are a rangeofpossiblefuturesreflectingtheuncertaintiesaroundsocietal aspiration, global evolution and technological requirement.Thepurposeofdifferentscenariostorylinesistounderstandtheimpactfromtravelingdifferingpathsthatlead to a common net-zero future.

Energy Intensity

Energy Intensityisaresultofinnovationandconsumerbehaviourandcanbeamajorfactorinthetransitionofthe energy system. New appliances and technological in-novationreducespecificenergydemand(e. g.heatpumps)orfacilitatetheparticipationofconsumerintheenergysystem (e.g. digitalisation and smart metering). On the otherside,newtechnologiescanleadtoadditionalenergydemand(e. g.e-scootersreplacingwalkorpublictransport).

Moreover, increasing energy efficiency can also lead to anincreasedrateofconsumption(JevonParadox).Heatpumps for example provide reduced energy demand throughmoreefficientheating.Butatthesamethistechnologyalsoprovidestheoptionforcooling,increasingenergy demand in summer. Finally, consumers can reduce theirconsumptionbymodalshifts,forexampleusingthebike instead of the car for shorter distances or by more shared economy through public transport and vehicle sharing. This also applies to agriculture and industrial sectors, were a drive towards circularity could lower energy demand,butanincreaseeconomicactivitycouldatleastinpartoffsettheefficiencygains.Assumptionsneedtobemadeforeachsectorandenergyapplication.

Thefollowingtabledescribestwoexamples:

GREEN TRANSITION

ENERGY INTENSITY

DRIVING FORCE OF ENERGY TRANSITION

TECHNOLOGIES

Sector Residential Transport

Sub-sector Heating PassengerTravelling

Issue Heatpumpsinnewhouses Increasingshareofhome-office

Issue description

Heatpumpshaveahigherefficiency,alsocalledcoefficientofperformance.Moreover,innewhouseswithanecessaryventilationsystem,heatpumpscanbeusedforcoolingusingareversingvalve.

Recenttrendsshowahighershareofhome-office(alsoduetotheCoronapandemic).

Question

Althoughheatpumpswillreducetheannualheatdemandinbuildings,willtheycreatenewelectri-citydemandforcooling(e. g.innorthern-Europeancountries)?

Howwillthisimpacttheenergysystem?

Howwillhome-officeinfluencecommutingandtransportdemand?

Willthisreducethenumberofindividualcars?

Willownershipstillbethemaintrend,orwillcarsharingtakeover?

HowwillthisinfluencetheflexibilitybyV2gfortheelectricitysystem?

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Technologies

Technological progress is a driver for the energy system evolution.Itcanactbothasanenablerofotherdrivers(e. g.morepowerfulwindturbinehelpingtofurtherhar-vestEURESpotential)andasatrigger(e. g.electrolysispaving the way to a low carbon hydrogen economy). Fur-therassumptionsareneededtodefinethemarketsharesfor different technologies/appliances. Assumed market sharesshouldreflectmaturityandreplacementrateoftherelevanttechnologies.Assumptionsneedtoreflectnationalpolicies/strategies and future consumer trends. Moreover, incertaincasesitisnecessarytomaketheassumptionsthatarespecifictocertaincountries,sub-sectorsorevenindividual processes.

Storyline Matrix

ENTSOGandENTSO-Eapplytheaforementionedmeth-odology to create a storyline matrix. The storyline matrix provides an overview of each parameter taken into account and reflects the technological or societal behaviour driversbeingconsidered.Itillustratesfromaqualitativeperspectivehowtheydifferfromonestorylinetothenext(and not compared to present situation). This storyline matrix is published as an annex to this report and on the TYNDP Scenarios website.

All the parameter choices in the storyline matrix will go throughadetailedquantificationinthenextstageofthescenario building process. This quantification will also accountforEuropeanandnationalpoliciesaswellasotherstudies. It is important to note that a full dataset cannot yetbequantifiedwithinthisdraftstorylinereport.Thefullscenario data set is a result of the scenario modelling and it will be provided as part of the Scenario Report to be published mid-2021. The next chapter will provide insights onthequantitativerangesforkeyparametersthathaveasignificantimpactontheenergysystem.Thepurposeofquantitativerangesistoillustratehowthestorylinesdifferfrom one another. These quantitative ranges fulfil the goal set by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG to increase the level of numerical transparency as early as possible for valuable feedbackduringtheconsultationprocess.

GREEN TRANSITION

ENERGY INTENSITY

DRIVING FORCE OF ENERGY TRANSITION

TECHNOLOGIES

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 17

The TYNDP 2020 Scenario building process, first developed qualitative storylines followed by a second step that created quantitative scenarios. TYNDP 2020 wasthefirstyearthatENTSOGandENSTO-Ecreatedawholeenergysystemtool,calledtheAmbitionToolanddevelopednewmethodologiesforcollectingenergyandtechnologytrajectoryinformation.Theavailabilityofnewtools and methodologies means that for TYNDP2022 we canprovidemeaningfulquantificationofkeyparametersat storyline level.

As a result, the combination of parameters defining each storyline (see Storyline Matrix in annex) is now complementedwithquantitativerangesorpriorityordersfor key parameters. The exact level of development of eachtechnologywillfinallydependonthesupply-demandbalanceofeachscenarioandthereforecannotbedefined

ex-ante at storyline level. A high and low trajectory have thereforebeendefinedforkeyparameters.Theyplayabenchmark role as upper and lower boundaries rather than a targeted level to be reached. Top down scenarios are open to a wider range of technology inputs, based on economic and storyline assumptions. It is expected thattheresultingscenarioswillhaveadiverserangeof technologies that enable a net-zero pathway, rather than leaningononeparticulartechnologyorenergycarrier

For reference, the graphs in this chapter highlight the parameter levels used in the Final TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report, published in June 2020. The charts illustrate ENTSOG and ENTSO-E’s intention to further enhance thedifferentiationofthescenariosdevelopedforTYNDP2022.

Quantification of key parameter ranges5

18 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

5.1 Demand

19 In-depthanalysisinsupportoftheCommissionCommunicationCOM(2018)773“ACleanPlanetforall”,link

20 Scenario3fromEurelectricDecarbonisationPathwaysachievinga95%GHGemissionreduction,link

Energy demand is defined by many factors such as the range of energy services to be provided, the behaviour of energy consumers and the available technology choices. It translatesforeachenergycarrierandapplicationintoanenergydemandlevelandatemporalprofileacrosstheyear.

Sometechnologieswillhaveastronginfluenceonenergydemandastheyresultinusagetransfer(e. g.e-mobility,fromoiltoelectricity),energysavings(e. g.heatpumps,

Coefficient of Performance gains) or the need for new energycarriers(e. g.hydrogen).Theyalsomaybecomeanincreasingsourceofflexibilityfortheenergysystem(e. g.demand-sidemanagement,smartcharging,hybridheat-pump,districtheating,electrolysis…).

In order to bring visibility to the storyline and scenario design,somequantitativerangeshavebeendefinedforcertainheatingandmobilitytechnologies.

Number and type of individual heat pumps

Heat pumps cover a wide range of technologies depend-ingontheambientheatsource,theheatingfluidandtheenergy source used to operate the heat pump. As a result, eachtechnologyincorporatesaspecificelectricityorgasdemandprofile.Forthepurposeofquantifyingthesto-rylines,specificrangesaredefinedfor:

- Electricheatpumps(coveringAir/Air,Air/WaterandWaterorground/Water)

- Hybridheatpumps(combinationofasize-optimizedAir/Waterelectricheatpumpandagasboiler

Residentialandtertiarysectorswillseesimilardevelop-mentsofheatpumpswhentheevolutionmaydifferfordistrictheating.

Whendefiningtheelectricitydemandprofilesasinputsforthescenariomodelling,aspecificprofilewillbeusedforeach heat pump category. For the hybrid heat pumps the switch from purely electricity mode to hybrid (gas) mode willoccuratanoutsidetemperatureof3 – 5 °C.

Scenario DEInthisscenario,theinstallationofindividualall-electricheatpumpsispredominantduetothestrongefficiencygain required to reach European energy autonomy. This technology participates to the high electrification of demand in parallel with the maximisation of electricity generationthroughsolarandwind.

Scenario GAIn this scenario, the availability of methane and hydrogen imports supports the use of gas in the building sector. Hybrid heat pumps are a meaningful alternative to all-electric heat pumps in certain countries. They combine the energy saving of the electric heat pumps on a wide temperature range while avoiding the necessity of deep renovationoroversizingelectricityinfrastructure.Theybenefit from the flexibility of the gas system to cover extremelycoldtemperatureorstresssituation.

Proposed rangesThe range for all-electric heat pumps is based on external studies consistent with carbon neutrality (EC LTS 1.5 Life/Techscenarios 19andEurelectric95 %Scenario 20). The range for hybrid heat pumps is based on the conversion of existinggasboilerstakingintoaccountthebenefitofthetechnology under cold and humid climate where all-electric heat pumps may create some challenge for the electricity system at very cold temperature. A regional approach will be developed in order to take into consideration such countryspecificssuchasclimateandthespreadofgasdistribution networks. As a result the heat pump share at country level may be lower or higher than the range definedbelowatEuropeanlevel.

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 19

Concerning the Electric Heat Pumps in 2050: - Maximum:57 %marketshareastheaverageofheatpumpsinresidential(44 %)andtertiary(53 %)heatingaccordingtotheEurelectric95 %Scenarioplusa10 %headroom.

- Minimum:32 %marketshareastheshareofelectric-ityinspaceheatinginbuildingsfromECLTS1.5Lifescenario.

21 Assumingapresent43 %marketshare

Concerning the Hybrid Heat Pumps in 2050: - Maximum:25 %marketshareresultingfromacon-versionassumptionof60 %ofexistinggasboilers 21 to hybrid heat pumps

- Minimum:10 %marketshareresultingfromaconver-sionassumptionof25 %ofexistinggasboilerstohybridheat pumps

Share of district heating

Districtheatingcoversawiderangeofsituationintermsofdemand(residential,tertiaryorindustrialspaceheatingandcooling) and energy sources (excess heat, ambient heat, solar,biomass…).Thesedifferencesarestronglylinkedtogeography (urban, sub-urban or countryside areas).

Forthepurposeofquantifyingthestorylinesarangeisprovidedfortheoverallmarketshareofdistrictheatinginlowtemperatureheatingdemand.

Thefuelmixfordistrictheatingwillbedetailedatalaterstageofthescenariobuildingprocess..Itwillreflecttheongoingcooperationbetweenthedistrictheatingsectorin particular through Euroheat & Power, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG.Thescenariosareenhancedbyaccountingfordifferentdistrictheatingsystemsandtheroleflexibilityofthesesystemscanofferwithintheoverallenergysystem.

Scenario DE

Localinitiativesandcircularityarekeydriversofthesce-nario.Districtheatingandcoolingembodiesbothtrends.Theyarepartofspatialplanningbylocalauthoritiesandcan combine a wide range of local energy sources (geo-thermal,solarorbiomass).Theyofferalinktoconsumersfor recovered heat from a wide range of sectors (industry, waste,datacentres…).

They enable energy saving through the use of large-scale efficientheatpumps.Thesebenefitsarecombinedwiththe ability to back-up heat pumps with other heat sources andthermalstorage.Theresultingflexibilityisofparticularimportance in a scenario with very low dispatchable power generation.

% Proposed ranges for TYNDP 2022, compared to TYNDP 2020

Range for TYNDP 2022

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2030 2050Heat pumps Hybrid heat pumps

2030 2050

DE2020 GA2020

Figure5:Marketshareof(hybrid)heatpumpsinthebuiltenvironment

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22 Policyscenariosfromthe“SteppingupEurope’s2030climateambition”impactassessment,link

23 HeatRoadmapEurope4QuantifyingtheImpactofLow-CarbonHeatingandCoolingRoadmaps,link

Scenario GAInthisscenario,gasandelectricitydistributionnetworksconnectedtoRESproductionandtransmissionsystemscontinuetobethemainsolutionforbuildingheatingandcooling. As a consequence the market share of district heatingwillsimilartothepresentsituation.

Proposed range in 2050TheECLTSandPolicy 22 scenarios and the Heat Roadmap Europe 23 study were taken as references for district heat-ingmarketshares:

- Maximum:32 %asresultingfromthecross-sectorialworkwiththedistrictheatingsector

- Minimum:15 %inlinewiththeECLTS1.5Tech/Lifescenariosnotanticipatingasignificantevolutionfromthe technology.

Number of passenger EV and FCEV

EVsareemblematicoftheenergytransitionandstronggrowth in sales is evident across Europe. From a demand perspectivetheirdevelopmentisdrivenbyairpollutionconcerns,energyefficiencyandCO2emissionreduction.Passenger vehicles currently account for the highest share inthetotaltransportfleet.Toreachtheclimatictargets,thedecarbonisationofthepassengersectorwillbedrivenbyafastuptakeofElectricalVehicles(EVs)andFuelCellElectricalVehicles(FCEVs).

Scenario DEThe use of electric motors delivers high efficiency gains, compared to ICE, helping Europe to reach energy autonomy, complimented by the strong development ofsolarandpower.SecondlyEVsofferflexibilitytotheelectricity system through smart charging, which becomes increasingly important in a scenario where dispatchable powergenerationisinrapiddecline.

The strong development of common transport modes, suchas,traininthisscenariowillmitigatethechallengeofautonomy for long distance travel.

Scenario GAIn this scenario, there is a wider range of clean mobility technologieswithfuelcellsasameaningfuloptionforlongdistance travel, high usage rate and power requirement. EVsofferthemostefficientsolutionforshorttomediumdistance mobility. In parallel the availability of hydrogen supply and transport infrastructure leads to technology development of fuel cell mobility driven by specific segments where driving range, engine power or use intensitymatters.PersonalmobilitybenefitsfromthesedevelopmentandprivateFCEVstakesomemarketsharesespecially for long distance travel.

% Proposed ranges for TYNDP 2022, compared to TYNDP 2020

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2050District heating

2030

Range for TYNDP 2022 DE2020 GA2020

Figure6:Marketshareofdistrictheatinginthebuiltenvironment

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 21

Proposed ranges in 2050Basedonthirdpartystudies,rangesforbothtechnologiesweredefined:

- Maximum:

 _EV:96 %marketshareasresultingfromtheEurelec-tric95%Scenario

 _FCEV:16 %marketshareinlinewiththeECLTS1.5Tech/Life and Policy scenarios

- Minimum:

 _EV:74 %marketshareinlinewiththeECPolicy scenarios

 _FCEV:4 %marketshareasreflectingawholeelectricpassengermobilitybasedonthe96 %maximummarketshareofEVs

FromTYNDP2020, it isworthnotingthatEVfleettrajectoryusedalinearprogressionresultingintoohighamarketshareforEVsin2030whenconsideringsupplychain effects and replacement rates. For this edition a lowerrangehasbeendefinedfor2030consistentwithexisting projection compared the most optimistic sales figuresupto2030(Eurelectric95 %Scenario).

% Passengers car proposed ranges for TYNDP 2022, compared to TYNDP 2020

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2050EV + hyprid plug-in

2030

Range for TYNDP 2022 DE2020 GA2020

% Passengers car proposed ranges for TYNDP 2022, compared to TYNDP 2020

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2050FCEV

2030

Range for TYNDP 2022 DE2020 GA2020

Figure7:MarketshareofEVsinpassengercarfleet Figure8:MarketshareofFCEVsinpassengercarfleet

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5.2 Supply

24 Duringourresearchweencounteredonestudywithsolarcapacitiesupto8500 GWin2050.Duetothisfigurebeingfaroutsidetherangeoftheothersourcesweencountered,itwasnotconsideredintherangeforourstorylines.

The range and the extent of available energy sources in Europe are drivers that will shape the evolution of the energy system. The proposed storylines intend to cover

contrastedpathwaysresortingtodifferenttechnologies,renewable sources and imports.

Wind onshore, wind offshore and solar PV.

Wind(onshoreandoffshore)andsolarPVtechnologiesarekey components of the future decarbonized energy mix and therefore play a pivotal role in the development of the scenario storylines.

From a modelling perspective, investments in these technologies are available based on annualized cost as-sumptions and strongly depends on electricity demand level (including electricity for P2X). Apart from these cost assumptions,thegeographicalinvestmentdecisionsarefurtherdrivenbytechnologyandcountryspecificClimateData.Forinstance,whereoffshorewindisnotanoptiondue to a lack of coast line or policy measure, the model will naturallynotinvestinthisoption.Thisboundaryisreflect-edineitherconditionsgivenbyTSOsortheclimatedata.

Scenario DETargetingEuropeanenergyautonomybasedonrenewableenergy sources requires maximizing wind and solar development.IncreasinglytriggeredbylocalinitiativessolarPVandonshorewindwillseethehighestdevelopmentcomparedtotheirpotential.AsaresultRESdevelopmentwillbeclosetotheupperrangeandpotentiallyhigherthanthe level reached in the TYNDP 2020 DE scenario, mainly duetolowerimportsandnuclearcapacity.Theresultingvariability of the energy mix will require significant flexibilityatnetworkanddemandlevel.

Scenario GAWideningthesupplyrangetolowcarbonelectricitygeneration and energy imports will provide some room tooptimizerenewabledevelopmentataEuropeanscaleseekingbothcostefficiencyandpublicacceptance.Asaresult,offshorewindandlargescalesolarfarmswillberespectivelypredominantinthenorth(e. g.NorthSeaEnergyHubs)andinthesouthofEurope.Relativelyhigherenergy imports results in lower deployment of wind, solar and electrolysis capacity to produce synthetic fuels in Europe.

Proposed ranges in 2050Thefollowinggraphcoversbothtechnicalpotentialofsolarandwindaswellastheinstalledcapacitiesasstatedinthemain third party scenarios (EC, IRENA, IEA, Eurelectric and e-Highway) approaching carbon neutrality.

Maximum technical potential - Solar:1705 GW 24fromthestudies:

 _Ahigh-resolutiongeospatialassessmentoftherooftopsolarphotovoltaicpotentialintheEuropeanUnion

 _SolarPhotovoltaicElectricityGeneration:ALifelinefortheEuropeanCoalRegionsinTransition

- Wind:8362 GWfromJRCTechnicalReport:WindpotentialsforEUandneighbouringcountries

Highest level in external studies for 2050 - Solar:1341 GW (79 % of technical potential)

from the T/G El RES+ scenario

- Wind:1650 GW (20 % of technical potential) from the EC CPRICE scenario

Lowest level in external studies for 2050 - Solar:400 GWfromECBaselinescenario

- Wind:600 GWfromECBaselinescenario

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 23

Figure9displaystherangesforinstalledcapacitiesofsolarPVandwind(onshoreandoffshore)fromthirdpartystud-ies and the TYNDP2020 scenarios GA and DE. The ranges presented are from various external scenario studies and aresubstantiallylowerthanthetechnicalpotentialsforsolarandwind,whichfinallydefinetheboundariesforthemodelling process.

Nuclear

Nuclear energy is a low-carbon energy source having the abilitytocontributetowardsmeetingEUCO2 emissions targets. Nuclear development is decided by governmental policiesatanationlevel.Itrangesfromcountrieshavingdecided an accelerated phase out of existing units, to countriesplanningtheconstructionofnewreactors.Inanycasethelevelofnuclearcapacityislikelytoinfluencethe European electricity system, as such the top-down scenariosshouldcapturedifferentevolutionsaccordingto their storylines.

Scenario DETheobjectiveofafullyrenewableenergymixresultsintheabsenceofconstructionofnewreactorsandthephaseoutofexistingonesaccordingtonationalpolicies.

Scenario GASome European countries take the decision to extend thelifeofexistingunitsandtobuildnewreactors.TheobjectiveistocomplementRESdevelopmentwithsomelow-carbonproductionwithsomedispatchcapability.

GW installed capacity Installed capacity for nuclear generation

Range for TYNDP 2022

2030 203520252020 2040 2045 20500

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Figure9:InstalledcapacitiesforsolarPVandwindgeneration

Figure10:Installedcapacityfornucleargeneration

24 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

Proposed ranges in 2050Trajectories are based on TSOs data complemented with assumptionsonprojectdevelopmentandunitlifetime:

- Maximum:116 GWwitha55-yearlifetimeassumptionforexisting,underconstructionandplanunitswhennot provided by TSOs. This trajectory shows a capacity decrease down to 2030 then a slow increase up to present level in 2050.

- Minimum:25 GWwitha45-yearlifetimeassumptionsforexistingunitsandthoseunderconstruction.

At quantification stage of the top-down scenarios, the nuclearcapacityofeachcountrywillbedefinedasaninputofthemodellingtakingintoaccounttheaforementionedtrajectories, public consultation results and the latest nationalpolicydevelopments.

Energy Imports

Nowadays Europe imports a wide range of energy carriers complementingindigenousproduction.Withhighereffi-ciencyandelectrificationcomparedtopresentsituation,the need of imports will decrease in the long-term. At the same time some countries over the world consider the possibility to export low carbon and renewable energy.

Whiletop-downscenarioswillintheendcapturethefullenergy mix, the storylines focus primarily on methane and hydrogen (including derived forms such as ammonia).

Scenario DEThe reduction in gas demand resulting from deep electrificationtogetherwiththesignificantuptakeoflocalrenewable gas production, imports experiment a high decrease in comparison to today’s level. Gas imports are assumedtobelowerthan35 %ofpresentlevelwhichwastheTYNDP2020DEthresholdalreadysubstantiallylowerthan the EC LTS 1.5 Tech/Life scenarios.

Scenario GAWithamorediversesupplymix,gasdemandishigherthaninDEscenario.WithloweruptakeofelectrolysiswithinEuropethepathtoachievelargescaledecarbonisation entails a more import-oriented vision. In any case total energy imports stay within the upper range set by EC LTS 1.5Techscenariorepresentinga70 %decreasecomparedto present level.

Proposed rangesThefiguresbelowillustratetheEU-28andEU-27importsof oil, gas and biofuels for 2050 in the EC scenarios and TYNDP 2020 DE and GA scenarios. At first glance, the total imports in the new EC Policy scenarios (REG, MIX, CPRICEandALLBNK)arewithinanarrowrangeof1850–2000 TWh.Theimportsourceinthesescenariosdoesnotvarysignificantlyeither.Duetohigherenergyautonomy,the DE 2020 scenario showed the lowest imports com-pared to EC and GA 2020 scenarios. Furthermore, the typeofimportedenergycarrierdiffers,withhigheroilandlower renewable gas imports in the EC scenarios. These differencesintheimportedenergycarriersderivedfromthestorylineassumptions.

TWh EU-28 Import of oil, gas and biofuels in 2050 EU-27 Import of oil, gas and biofuels in 2050

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Oil Methane Coal Bio energy Hydrogen

2015 20151.5 Tech Reg Mix CPrice AllBNK1.5 Life DE2020 DE2020GA2020 GA2020

Figure11:Importofoil,gasandbiofuelsin2050

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 25

Hydrogen supply

25 HydrogenismentionedinmostoftheMemberStatesNECPsandissubjecttodedicatedstrategiesbyatleastFrance(link),Germany(link),theNetherlands(link)andPortugal(link).BeyondEUawiderangeofcountrieshavepublishednationalhydrogenstrategiessuchasNorway(link),Japan(link),SouthKorea(link),China,Australia(link)andCalifornia

Hydrogen is increasingly becoming part of the national energy and climate strategies of countries across the world 25. The European Commission has launched an am-bitiousstrategyonhydrogen.Thisenergycarrierenlargesthe range of solutions to decarbonize some difficult to electrify sectors. At this stage it is hard to provide a range for the overall hydrogen demand as it an emerging energy carrier which development depends on a wide range of parametersstilltobedefined.

Scenario DEIn this scenario, hydrogen is mainly produced by electrol-ysis of electricity produced by European wind and solar capacity. It can be complemented in a limited amount by steam methane reforming of biomethane as an interim solutionorbiomasspyrolysis.InanycasestheEuropeanrenewableenergypotentiallimitsthevolumeofhydrogenthat can be produced. As a result, the available volume will be channelled towards the sectors the most challenging to electrify.

Beyonditsmarketshareinfinalenergy,hydrogencanplayanimportantroleasasourceofflexibilitysinceitisa storable energy in the form liquid and gaseous fuels.

Scenario GAIn this scenario, hydrogen comes from a wider range of renewable and low-carbon sources being in Europe as well as imports.

26 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

5.3 Flexibility options

26 Alsoincludingtertiarybatteriesofsimilarfeatures

Beyonddispatchablepowergeneration,therearemanyoptionstosupporttheenergysystemflexibilityneededto deliver the energy transition. Such options include theuseofsectorcoupling(batteries,P2X)anddemandside response. These flexibility options can further be subcategorised:

- Batteriesusedforshorttermenergystorage(e. g.dailybalancing):

 _behindthemeterbatteries(mostlyresidential)drivenby mixed signals (energy market and local drivers);

 _utility-scalebatteriesdrivenbytheenergymarket;

 _utility-scalebatteriesforsystemservicesprovision;

- Demand-sideresponse:

 _ the use of flexibility from electric vehicles smart charging(includingFCEVs);

 _theuseofhybridheatpump(cf.§ 5.1);

 _inthetertiarysector(e. g.supermarketswitchingitsfridgesoffforashortamountoftime);

 _intheindustrialsector(e. g.back-upenergyorpro-ductionadaptation).

- Electrolysers which can adapt hydrogen production to electricity market signals provided that there is downstreamflexibility(e. g.abilityofanindustrialconsumertoswitchoffhydrogendemandortostoreit locally or a hydrogen network connecting various sources and storages). Depending on the situation electrolysiscanofferflexibilityoptionforalltimeframesup to and including seasonal energy balancing.

Flexibilityisslightlydifferenttootherkeyparametersinthat the development of each flexibility technology is dependentfromawiderangeofotherparametersstilltobequantified.Intheenditisanoutputoftheelectricitymarketmodelsusedtohelpquantifyeachofthescenarios.For this reason the present document will focus on the modelling approach of each technology and the priority order consistent with each storylines.

Batteries

Thenumberofresidentialbatteries 26 will depend on the penetrationofrooftopPVineachcountryandonaco-efficientreflectingstorylinedrivers.ItisexpectedtobehigherinDEduetotheofftakeofdecentralizedRESandprosumer behaviour.

Utility-scalebatterycapacitywillsubjecttotheoptimi-sationoftheoverallelectricitysystem.Abenchmarkwillbe made against current studies and will be used to set thepercentagerelationbetweenmarketbasedSolarPVcapacityandbatteries.

Demand Side Response (DSR)

TheboundaryconditionsofsmartchargingdevelopmentwillbesetbasedonthenumberofEVsinacountryandtherelatedcharginginfrastructure.ThenumberofEVswillbedeterminedduringthequantificationofthescenariostogether with the infrastructure levels. Once these param-eters have been set, it will be then possible to determine a levelofflexibilitycapacityavailabletothemarket.

The level of DSR inside the market will reflect the trajectorycollectionfromTSOs,regressionanalysisandexternal studies. The regression analysis will be used to setastartingpointfollowedbycomparisonwithexternalstudies and complimented by TSO/DSO input to determine thefinalvalues.

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 27

Electrolysers

Theelectrolysercapacitywillfirstdependonthehydrogendemandrequiredtosupportthedecarbonisationoftheenergymix.Withincreasingamountsofvariablerenewablegenerationandelectricaldemand,electrolyserscanserveasanadditionalflexibilitysourcetotheelectricitysystembyconvertingexcesselectricityintostorableenergy.Inthe long term the actual capacity will depend on both purposes and the underlying economic and technical boundaryconditions.Therearethreemainconfigurationsforelectrolysers:

1) Supplied by dedicated renewables and whereby the electrolyserfollowstheproductionfromtherenewablesources.

2) Electrolysers connected to both electricity and gas markets (their capacity and location result from the modelling of the electricity system).

3) Electrolysersthatareonsiteatenduserfacilities,andare supplied by the electricity markets (modelled as an electricity load)

Somemixedconfigurationsmaydevelopsuchasonsiteelectrolysers with the ability to inject hydrogen in gas net-work when not directly consumed, or supplied by both on site RES and electricity market.

Thecombinationoftheaboveapproacheswilldeterminetheelectrolysercapacityandtheflexibilityofferedtothesystem.

Priority of the flexibility technologies based on storyline narrative

Scenario DEInthisscenariodispatchablepowergenerationbecomesincreasingly scarce on annual level. In parallel, there is a veryhighmarketshareofEVs,thedevelopmentofprosum-er behaviours and the need to replace energy imports by syntheticfuelsthroughelectrolysis.Asaresult,eachofthethreeflexibletechnologiesshouldreachasignificantlevel.Onlyutility-scalebatterycouldseeaslowerdevelopment.

Scenario GA Inthisscenariothereisstilldispatchablepowergeneration(nuclear or fossil equipped with CCS) to support the development of variable renewables. As a result, the need ofdownstreamflexibilityislower.

Member States European UnionElectrolysis capacity for hydrogen and e-fuels (GWe)

2030 203520252020 2040 2045 20500

12

10

8

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800

700

600

500

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DE FR ES PT NL EC Low EC High DE2020 GA2020

Figure12:Electrolysiscapacityforhydrogenande-fuels

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For the 2022 scenario building cycle ENTSOG and ENTSO-Ehaveincreasedtheirambitiononstakeholder engagement as a key topic building upon the valuable lessons learned from the TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report. In order to ensure the credibility and integrity of the ScenarioReport,theScenarioBuildingTeamaimsforfur-ther enhancing transparency and stakeholder engagement.

External feedback on the 2020 cycle showed that the followingelementsoftheprocesswerewell-received:

- The Scenario Methodology Reportofferingadetaileddescriptionoftheconditiontheunderlyingassumptionsfor the scenarios and modelling process.

- The publication of datasets on the TYNDP Scenario websiteallowingalluserstoscrutinizeindividualfiguresand break down results to a member-state level.

- The two public consultations (one on the storylines andoneonthescenarios)givingallinterestedpartiestwooccasionstoofferinputonthescenariobuildingprocess.

- The multiple stakeholder workshops providing regu-larupdatesontheprocess,detailedpresentationsofspecificissuesandofferingallusersaplatformtoaskquestionsandshareopinions.

These elements will therefore serve as the basis for further expansion of the stakeholder engagement in the TYNDP 2022 scenario building cycle.

For the TYNDP 2022 scenarios, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E planstoachievetotaltransparencythroughouttheentireprocess. Stakeholders will be able to accompany the developmentofthestorylines,observethedeterminationof key data sets, and understand the methodology for the modelling of scenarios.

Stakeholder engagement for the TYNDP 2022 storylines 6

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 29

During the 2020 scenario building cycle some stakeholders had the impression that key strategic decision had already beenmadepriortostakeholderengagement.Whatismore,certain stakeholders responded that the complexity of the scenariobuildingprocesshadmadeitdifficultforthemtoaccompanythedevelopmentsandtointeractefficientlywith ENTSOG and ENTSO-E. For the TYNDP 2022 cycle,

ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will aim to improve transparency of the process and provide external stakeholders with more opportunity to interact directly with the work on the TYN-DP 2022 scenarios. A key goal of the 2022 cycle was to ensure stakeholder engagement from the earliest phases of the process. As a result, several key changes were made to the process.

Stakeholder Engagement from Day One

Atthekick-offworkshopfortheTYNDP2022ScenarioReport on 3 July 2020, stakeholders were offered the opportunitytoaskquestionsandrequestclarityonkeyissues.Theonlineformatforthisevent(choseninitiallyduetotheongoingCOVID-19pandemic)actuallymadethisprocessmoreinteractivethaninthepast.Morethan200participantsattheeventwereabletoaskquestionsinrealtimeduringtheworkshopviatheMentimetertool.

Intotalmorethan40questionswerereceived.Themostpopularofthese(basedonvotingbypublicparticipants)were addressed directly during the workshop. All further questionshavesincebeenansweredinwritingbyENTSOGandENTSO-E.Boththequestions(anonymised)andanswers have been made available to the public via the TYNDP Scenarios website.

30 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

Stakeholder Input on Key Parameters

In the 2022 cycle, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E are determined tousetheexpertiseofexternalstakeholderstodeveloptheunderlyingassumptionsforthestorylines.Duringthe2020 scenario building process, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E engaged with CAN Europe to calculate a carbon budget for the two top-down scenarios. This approach gave the carbon budget more credibility and provided ENTSOG and ENTSO-E with important insights from external experts thatenhancedthefinalscenarios.AfterthesuccessofthiscooperationintheTYNDP2020ScenarioReport,ENTSOGandENTSO-Ehavedecidedtoexpandtheirinteraction

withexternalorganisation.Aconcertedeffortisalreadybeing made to bring the latest data and a diverse range ofexpertiseintothestorylinedevelopment.Tothisend,ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have already conducted bilateral meetingswithmultipleNGOsandindustrialorganisationstoexchangeviewsandgaininsight.Thesemeetingswillcontinuethroughouttheprocess.Toensurethetranspar-encyoftheseactivities,thefulllistofthebilateralmeetingsheld so far has been published on the TYNDP Scenarios websiteandinputderivedfromthesemeetingshasbeenfactored into this report.

Consultation on Hard Data – Not just Concepts

Feedback from the 2020 cycle cited the perceived lack of transparencyindeterminingthequantitativedatausedtobuildthedifferentscenarios.Toensurethecredibilityofthescenario development, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E agreed that thestorylineconsultationshouldnotonlybefocusedon

qualitativedescriptions,butmustalsoincludequantitativeparameters.Stakeholderscanthereforebettercomprehendand, if necessary, challenge input assumptions so that refinementscanbemadefromthestartratherthanendofprocess.

Transparent Documentation of Feedback and Interactions

Afterthekick-offworkshop,externalstakeholderswereencouraged to provide detailed feedback and address their questionstoENTSOGandENTSO-E.Allfeedbackreceivedhasbeenanswereddirectly.Aswiththequestionsaskedat

theKick-offWorkshopandtheinformationfrombilateralmeetings,boththewrittenfeedback(anonymised)andtheresponse from ENTSOG and ENTSO-E is publicly available on the TYNDP Scenarios website.

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 31

Next steps7In this report ENTSOG and ENTSO-E propose the scenario storylinesforTYNDP2022.Thispublicationisonlythefirststep in the TYNDP scenario development process, which spansuntiltheendofnextyear.Thisisfurtherillustratedinfigure13.

Next steps in the scenario building process are the following:

- Thepublicationofthisdraftscenariostorylinereportmarksthestartoftheofficialstorylineconsultation.A online consultation will be conducted between 3Novemberand15December2020 27. Stakeholders are invited to share their opinion and give feedback on the proposals within this report. Your comments are greatlywelcomedandareconsideredanessentialpartof the scenario development process

- Withtheconsultationfeedbackreceived,ENTSOGandENTSO-EwillestablishthefinalstorylinestobedevelopedintoTYNDPscenarios.Thefinalstoryline

27 Link to consultation questionnaire

report is expected to be published early 2021. In the meantime, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will continue to development and improve methodologies needed to build the scenarios and datasets.

- Afterthefinalstorylinesareestablished,ENTSOGandENTSO-EwillperformthequantificationandmodellingneededtobuildtheTYNDP2022scenarios.Withthismodelling the (qualitative) storylines will be trans-latedintofullyquantifiedscenarios.Adraftscenarioreport including datasets is expected to be published mid-2021,aspartofthenextmajorpublicconsultationphase.

- ENTSOGandENTSO-Ewilluseallconsultationfeed-back to refine and establish the final quantified sce-nariostobeusedinTYNDP2022.Thefinalscenarioreport is expected to be published in early 2022. The finalscenariosfeedintotheTYNDP2022developmentprocess. The scenario datasets are used within the systemneedsassessmentprocessandthecost-benefitanalysis(CBA)forthePCIselection.

Figure13:Scenariobuildingprocess

Q3 Q4Start 2021 Start 2022

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32 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

High level driver Dimension Characteristic Storyline 1 (DE)

Storyline 2 (GA)

Green transition by2030 CompliantwithGreenDeal (–50 – 55 %GHGemissions) Yes Yes

Green transition by2050 Reachcarbonneutrality Yes Yes

Green transition EUCarbonBudget CompliantwithEUstrategies(LTS) Yes Yes

Driving force of the Transition Initiative LevelofDecentralisation

(Prosumervs.Global) Higher Lower

Driving force of the Transition

GlobalTechnologyandCommodityTrade

Benefitsfromglobalsynergies(sociatalacceptanceandefficincies) Lower Higher

Driving force of the Transition Autonomy Shareofenergyautarky Higher Lower

Energy intensity ResidentialandTertiary Behaviour:surfaceperperson Lower Higher

Energy intensity ResidentialandTertiary Behaviour:shareofhomeoffice Higher Lower

Energy intensity ResidentialandTertiary Levelofenergyefficientconsumerbehaviour(lowerroomtemperature) Higher Lower

Energy intensity ResidentialandTertiary Levelofenergyefficientconsumerbehaviour(electricappliances) Higher Lower

Energy intensity ResidentialandTertiary Levelofrenovationrate Higher Lower

Energy intensity Transport Levelofpublic/sharedtransport(occupationpercar) Higher Lower

Energy intensity TransportNumberoftraveledkmperperson(includingvacation,tradeandwork)

Lower Higher

Energy intensity Transport Shareofautonomousvehicles Similar Similar

Energy intensity Transport Shareofnon-motorisedtransport Higher Lower

Energy intensity Industry Growthofindustry (onshoring,export) Lower Higher

Energy intensity Industry Rawmaterialsandfeedstock (focusonnon-energyfuels) Lower Higher

Energy intensity Industry Data centres Similar Similar

Energy technologies LowTemperatureHeatDemand Districtheating(circularity) Higher Lower

Energy technologies LowTemperatureHeatDemand Smallscalegasboilers (households) Similar Similar

Energy technologies LowTemperatureHeatDemand Smallscalehybridheatpumps(households) Lower Higher

Energy technologies LowTemperatureHeatDemand Smallscaleall-electricheatpumps(households) Higher Lower

Energy technologies LowTemperatureHeatDemand SmallscaleCHPincl.fuelcells(households) Higher Lower

Energy technologies Privatetransport EV Higher Lower

Energy technologies Privatetransport FCEV Lower Higher

Energy technologies Heavygoodstransport EV Higher Lower

Energy technologies Heavygoodstransport FCEV Lower Higher

Annex: Storyline MatrixA

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 33

High level driver Dimension Characteristic Storyline 1 (DE)

Storyline 2 (GA)

Energy technologies Heavygoodstransport CompressedMethaneCars Lower Higher

Energy technologies Aviationandshipping SytheticLiquids Higher Lower

Energy technologies Aviationandshipping Methane(liquified) Lower Higher

Energy technologies Aviationandshipping Hydrogen(liquifiedorammonia) Lower Higher

Energy technologies Aviationandshipping Electricity Higher Lower

Energy technologies Industry:hightemperatureheat Methane Lower Higher

Energy technologies Industry:hightemperatureheat Hydrogen Lower Higher

Energy technologies Industry:hightemperatureheat Electricty Higher Lower

Energy technologies Carboneconomy CCS(allsources) Lower Higher

Energy technologies Sector coupling ShareofP2X Higher Lower

Energy technologies Electrictiysupplyfordirectelectricitydemand Solar-PV Higher Lower

Energy technologies Electrictiysupplyfordirectelectricitydemand Onshorewind Higher Lower

Energy technologies Electrictiysupplyfordirectelectricitydemand Offshorewind Lower Higher

Energy technologies Electrictiysupplyfordirectelectricitydemand (New)nuclear Lower Higher

Energy technologies Electrictiysupplyfordirectelectricitydemand

SmallScaleCHP (includingfuelcells) Higher Lower

Energy technologies Electrictiysupplyfordirectelectricitydemand

LargeScaleCHP (includingfuelcells) Lower Higher

Energy technologies Electrictiysupplyfordirect-electricitydemand ConcentratedSolarPower Lower Higher

Energy technologies Electricitybalancing ThermalGeneration Similar Similar

Energy technologies Electricitybalancing DSRbasedonSmartMetering Higher Lower

Energy technologies Electricitybalancing Flexiblepowertoheat Higher Lower

Energy technologies Electricitybalancing Batteries(behindthemeter) Higher Lower

Energy technologies Electricitybalancing Large scale electricy storage Lower Higher

Energy technologies Electricitybalancing Smartcharging Higher Lower

Energy technologies Electricitybalancing P2x Higher Lower

Thequalitativelevelsrefertothestorylinedifferentiationatthe2050timehorizon.Mostofthedriverswillseeanevolution in the same direction when compared to the presentsituation.

34 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

Biomethane: Gaseous renewable energy source derived from agricultural biomass (dedicated crops, by-products and agricultural waste and animal waste), agro-industrial (waste from the food processing chain) and the Organic FractionMunicipalSolidWaste(OFMSW).

Bottom-Up: This approach of the scenario building process collects supply and demand data from Gas and Electricity TSOs.

Carbon budget: This is the amount of carbon dioxide the world can emit while still having a likely chance of limitingaverageglobaltemperatureriseto1.5 °Cabovepre-industriallevels,aninternationallyagreed-upontarget.

CBA:CostBenefitAnalysiscarriedouttodefinetowhatextentaprojectisworthwhilefromasocialperspective.

CCS:CarbonCaptureandStorage.ProcessofsequestratingCO2 and storing it in such a way that it won’t enter the atmosphere.

CHP: Combined heat and power

DSR:DemandSideResponse.Consumershaveanactiverole in softening peaks in energy demand by changing theirenergyconsumptionaccordingtotheenergypriceand availability.

EC: European Commission.

ECI:EnergySystemIntegrationStrategyfromtheEuropeanCommission

EV: Electric vehicle.

FCEV: Fuel cell electric vehicle

GHG: Greenhouse gas.

Hybrid Heat Pump: heating system that combines an electricheatpumpwithagascondensingboilertoopti-mizeenergyefficiency.

ICE:Internalcombustionengine

IEA:WorldEnergyOutlook.

Indirect electricity demand: Indirect electrification means that electricity is not used as a direct replacement for fossil fuels, but as an input in industrial processes.

LNG:Liquefiednaturalgas.

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LTS: Long Term Strategy

LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry. Sink of CO2 made possible by the fact that atmospheric CO2 can accumulateascarboninvegetationandsoilsinterrestrialecosystems.

NECPs:NationalEnergyandClimatePlansarethenewframework within which EU Member States have to plan, in an integrated manner, their climate and energy objectives,targets,policiesandmeasurestotheEuropeanCommission. Countries will have to develop NECPs on a ten-year rolling basis, with an update halfway through the implementation period. The NECPs covering the firstperiodfrom2021to2030willhavetoensurethatthe Union’s 2030 targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions, renewable energy, energy efficiency and electricityinterconnectionaremet.

NGO:Non-governmentalOrganization.

P2G: Power to gas. Technology that uses electricity to pro-ducehydrogen(PowertoHydrogen–P2H2)bysplittingwater into oxygen and hydrogen (electrolysis). The hydro-gen produced can then be combined with CO2 to obtain syntheticmethane(PowertoMethane–P2CH4).

P2L: Power to liquids. Combination of hydrogen from electrolysis and Fischer-Tropsch process to obtain syntheticliquidfuels.

P2X:Aggregationofpowertogasandpowertoliguids

PCI: Project of Common Interest.

Power-to-Hydrogen / P2Hydrogen: Hydrogen obtained from P2H2.

Glossary

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 35

Power-to-Methane / P2Methane: Renewable methane, couldbebiomethaneorsyntheticmethaneproducedbyrenewable energy sources only.

RES: Renewable energy source.

Synthetic fuel: fuel (gas or liguid) that is produces from renewable electrical energy.

TEN-E: Trans-European Networks for Energy, EU policy fo-cused on linking the energy infrastructure of EU countries.

Top-Down:The“Top-DownCarbonBudget”scenariobuildingprocessisanapproachthatusesthe“bottom-up”modelinformationgatheredfromtheGasandElectricityTSOs. The methodologies are developed in line with the CarbonBudgetapproach.

TSO: Transmission System Operator.

TYNDP: Ten-Year Network Development Plan.

List of Figures & Tables

Figures

Figure 1: Scenario building process ................................................5

Figure 2: TYNDP Scenario horizon and framework ...................7

Figure 3: Howtospecifystorylinecharacteristics (example) .......................................................................... 12

Figure 4: High-Level Drivers of top-down scenarios .......................................................................... 13

Figure 5: Market share of (hybrid) heat pumps in the built environment ............................................... 19

Figure 6: Marketshareofdistrictheatingin the built environment ................................................... 20

Figure 7: MarketshareofEVsinpassenger carfleet ............................................................................ 21

Figure 8: MarketshareofFCEVsinpassenger carfleet ............................................................................ 21

Figure 9: InstalledcapacitiesforsolarPVand windgeneration ............................................................. 23

Figure 10: Installedcapacityfornucleargeneration .................. 23

Figure 11: Import of oil, gas and biofuels in 2050 ..................... 24

Figure 12: Electrolysis capacity for hydrogen and e-fuels ....................................................................... 27

Figure 13: Scenario building process ............................................. 31

Tables

Table 1: Storylinesdifferentiationbased on high-level drivers .........................................................9

36 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

Aalborg University (2018), HeatRoadmapEurope4QuantifyingtheImpactofLow-CarbonHeatingandCoolingRoadmapshttps://heatroadmap.eu/roadmaps/

Bódisetal(2019), Ahigh-resolutiongeospatialassessmentoftherooftopsolarphotovoltaicpotentialintheEuropeanUnionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032119305179

Bódisetal(2019), SolarPhotovoltaicElectricityGeneration:ALifelinefortheEuropeanCoalRegionsinTransitionhttps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/13/3703

Eurelectric (2018), DecarbonisationPathwayshttps://www.eurelectric.org/decarbonisation-pathways/

European Commission (2018), A Clean Planet for all A European long-term strategic visionforaprosperous,modern,competitiveandclimateneutral economyhttps://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_analysis_in_support_en_0.pdf

European Commission (2020), SteppingupEurope’s2030climateambitionInvestinginaclimate-neutralfutureforthebenefitofourpeoplehttps://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/eu-climate-ac-tion/docs/impact_part2_en.pdf

Fuel Cells and Hydrogen (2019), Hydrogen Roadmap Europehttps://www.fch.europa.eu/sites/default/files/20190206_Hydrogen%20Roadmap%20Europe_Keynote_Final.pdf

Gas for climate (2020), GasDecarbonisationPathways2020 – 2050https://gasforclimate2050.eu/publications/

InternationalEnergyAgency(2019), WorldEnergyOutlook2019https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2375

InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(2019), GlobalEnergyTransformation2019https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Apr/Global-en-ergy-transformation-A-roadmap-to-2050-2019Edition

JRC (2018), JRCTechnicalReport:WindpotentialsforEUandneigh-bouring countrieshttps://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/wind-potentials-eu-and-neighbouring-countries-input-datasets-jrc-eu-times-model

Shell (2020), A Climate Neutral EU by 2050https://www.shel l .com/energy-and-innovat ion/the-energy-future/scenarios/scenario-sketches/new-sketch-a-climate-neutral-eu/_jcr_content/par/related-topics.stream/1587034457359/dad7b112d536241e-759584da50430cfade845d39/scenario-sketch-a-climate-neutral-eu-by-2050.pdf

TenneT, Gasunie (2020), Infrastructure Outlook 2050 Phase IIhttps://www.tennet.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Company/Publications/Technical_Publications/200204_Phase_II_Project_report.pdf

WindEurope(2017), WindenergyinEurope:Scenariosfor2030https://windeurope.org/wp-content/uploads/files/about-wind/reports/Wind-energy-in-Europe-Scenarios-for-2030.pdf

External study references

Joint-Publishers

ENTSOG

European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas

Avenue de Cortenbergh 100 1000Brussels,Belgium

www.entsog.eu

ENTSO-E

European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity

Rue de Spa, 8 1000Brussels,Belgium

www.entsoe.eu

Co-authors

Olivier Lebois PieterBoersmaCihan SönmezDante Powell

Sub-Team leads of the JointWGScenarioBuilding

JointWGScenarioBuilding

ENTSOGWGScenarios

ENTSO-E Regional Groups

Design DreiDreizehnGmbH,Berlin|www.313.de

Pictures

Page4: CourtesyofFingrid Page6: CourtesyofFGSZ Page8: iStockphoto.com/allou Page12: CourtesyofTerna Page17: CourtesyofDESFA Page28: CourtesyofČEPS Page31: CourtesyofSNAM

Publishing date

November 2020

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 37

Imprinti

38 // ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report

A public consultation webinar on the content of the report will be hosted by ENTSOG and ENTSO-E during the public consultation period.

W Webinar

ENTSO-E // ENTSOG  TYNDP 2022 Scenario Storyline Report // 39

European Network ofTransmission System Operators

for Electricity