TYNDP 2018

Improvements of TYNDP 2018

Communication

Final version after public consultation and ACER opinion - October 2019

1 SCENARIOS 1 1.1 ENTSO-E & ENTSOG Joint Scenarios 2 1.2 Scenarios & Time Horizons 2 1.3 Introduction of EUCO Scenario 3

2 Pan European Market Modelling Database (PEMMDB) 4

3 Pan European Climate Database (PECD) 5

4 Market & Network Studies 6

5 CostBenefitAssessment(CBA) 8

6 System Needs 10

7 Frequency Stability Studies 11

8 ProjectSheets 12

9 ProjectPlatform 13

Contents

Main Report Regional Reports– North-South

Interconnections East– North-South

Interconnections West– Northern Seas

Offshore Grid– Nordic & Baltics

Communication– Stakeholder

Engagement– Improvements

to TYNDP 2018

Technical– Data and Expertise– Technologies for– Transmission– Viability of the

Energy Mix– CBA Technical

Adequacy– Mid-Term Adequacy

Forecast

ENTSO-E Reports 2018As an improvement to the TYNDP 2018 package, the Insight Reports have beencategorised in order to help readers navigate through the document and focuson what readers might find of interest. The category of reports are:

— Executive Report – Contains the key insights of the whole TYNDP package through its two-year cycle.

— Regional Reports – Based on the four projects of common interest (PCI) regions, the reports focus on the regional challenges of the energy transition.

— Communication – These reports communicate how we have interacted with our stakeholders and improved the TYNDP package from 2016 to 2018.

— Technical – These reports give a deeper insight into the technical subjects, including how we use our data, and the technical challenges of energy transition.

We hope this guide is of benefit to all stakeholders.

Section 1

Scenarios

1.1 Joint Scenarios1.2 Scenarios & Time Horizons1.3 Introduction of EUCO Scenario

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1.1Joint ScenariosTheENTSOsforgasandelectricityhavecombinedtheireffortsandexpertisetodevelopcommonscenariosforthefirsttime.Theseassistwithdecisionmaking,identifyingtheneedsandtheadequacyoffuture infrastructure investment.

ThescenariosformthebaseofallthestudiesundertakenintheTYNDP2018andthusareoneofthemostimportantfactorstotakeintoconsiderationinitsdevelopment.ThecoordinationofENTSO-E

andENTSOGinthedevelopmentofscenariosisanimportantsteptowardscreatingamorecomprehensiveviewoftherequirementsofthefutureenergysystem.WebelievethattheENTSOshavebeensuccessfulinidentifyingviablepathwaysfortheenergytransitionintheElectricityandGassectorsandwewillcontinuetoimproveourprocessesandmethodologies.Therefore,theinterdependenceofthetwosectorscouldbetakeninto account in future analysis.

1.2Scenarios & Time HorizonsIntheTYNDP2016,thescenariopackageconsistedofone2020scenarioandfour2030scenarios,whichwereallbrandedas‘visions’.InthemorerecentscenariopackageusedintheTYNDP2018, theENTSOshavecreatedamorewide-rangingset ofscenarios,followingtherecommendationsfromstakeholders.Thesehavebeendevelopedusingajointapproachbetweentheseparateorganization’sscenariobuildingmethodologies.

Theresultsareone scenario each inthe2020–2025timeframe,followedbyfourscenariosinthe2030–2040timeframe.Thenamingofthescenarioshasalso

becomemoreindicativeofthestorylineswhichtheyrepresent.Thenamesare;— 2020 Best Estimate — 2025 Best Estimate— 2030 – 2040 Sustainable Transition— 2030 – 2040 Distributed Generation— 2030 EUCO —2040GlobalClimateAction

MoreinformationcanbefoundonthescenariosectionoftheTYNDP2018website(https://tyndp.entsoe.eu/).

Figure1.1ThescenariobuildingframeworkforTYNDP2018.RenewableEnergySystems(RES)shareofdemandfor electricity and gas

2020 2025 2030

DistributedGeneration

BestEstimate

BestEstimate

The EUCOScenario

Global ClimateAction

SustainableTransition

SustainableTransition

DistributedGeneration

2035 2040 2045 2050

5%1.8%13% 6%

4%16% 8%

15%

0%

0%

5%18%

1%9%19% 25%

1%13%27%

21%3%9%

36%

12%0%5%

29%8%3%20%

External from European Commission

ENTSO-E/ENTSOGScenario

System share of wind

System shareof solar power

Biomethane productionshare of demand

Power-to-gasshare of demand

Merit orderswitch in 2025

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1.3Introduction of EUCO ScenarioAspartofthescenariobuildingprocess,theENTSOshaveintroducedascenariofromtheEuropeanCommission.ThisscenarioiscalledEUCO2030.The EUCO scenario shows the impact of EU policies at the time of its formulaton [2014] towards meeting the 2030 decarbonization targets. It is considered a good comparator with the other ENTSO scenarios developed with the industry, and thus the scenario has been implemented in the full range of studies undertaken by ENTSO-E.

Section 2

Pan European Market Modelling Database (PEMMDB)The PEMMDB forms the basis of all the information which is used to model the scenarios. Each scenario is based on a database for each country which outlines aspects such as installed capacity, hydro conditions, and demand.

InTYNDP2018theimprovementsmadewerequantitativeinputsforelectricvehicles,heatpumps,DemandSideResponsepricebands,amongothers.SomeoftheinformationforscenariosiscollectedbasedontheexpectationsofTSOsandnationaltrends,thisiscalledbottomupcollection.Thebottomupcollectionwasundertakenfor2020BestEstimate,2025 Best Estimate and 2030 Sustainable Transition.

TheotherscenarioPEMMDBsweredevelopedbyENTSO-Ebasedoncommonmethodologiesandusingthecollectedinformationinthebottomupscenariosasareferencepoint,ofthesocalled‘topdownscenarios’.Forexample,electricvehiclesandheatpumpswereforecastedbasedontheeconomicgrowthrelatedtothatscenariostoryline,andafactorfromtheWorldEnergyOutlookisusedtoforecasttheincrease.

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Section 3

Pan European Climate Database (PECD)

The PECD provides an hourly timeseries for Wind and Solar load factors, based on historical data, for each scenario

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TherehavebeenmanyimprovementstothePECDincomparisontotheTYNDP2016.Thisincludestheintroductionof34climateyearswhiletheTYNDP2016consideredonly14.Theclimateyearwereclusteredinto9mainclimategroups,thenfurtherclusteredinto3whichformedthebasisofmostoftheTYNDP2018studies.ThisapproachallowedfortheassessmentoftheimpactofclimateyearswithinthetimeandresourceconstraintsoftheTYNDP2018timelines.

OtherfurtherimprovementsmadetothePECDincludedtheforecastoffuturetechnologiesused,whichincludedpredictedimprovementsinwindtechnologiessuchasincreasedshaftheightandsizeofturbineblades.Theexplicitmodellingofinnovativetechnologieshasbeenintroduced,likebatteriesanddemand-side-Response(DSR),allowingScenariostobeshapedaccordingtothenewdevelopmenttrendsintheenergysectorworldwide.

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Section 4

Market & Network Studies

The market modelling methodology has been improved in several ways compared to the TYNDP 2016 process.

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NewmarketareashavebeenintroducedinTYNDP2018,likeGR03–Crete(Greece),TN00–Tunisia,FR15–Corsica(France)andIS00–Israel.ThisallowedENTSO-Etomodeltheinterconnection

projectsrelatedtothesepartsoftheeuropewithhigherprecision.ThedetailedoverviewisdepictedontheFigure 4.1 below.

Figure4.1MarketnodeconfigurationevolutionforTYNDP2018

IS00

NOm

NOs

NOn

SE1

SE2

SE3

SE4

FI

GB

NI

IE

FR

ESPT

DKw DKe

NL

BE

LU

DE

CH

AT

ITn

SI HR

BA

CZSK

HU

RS

ME

MK

GR

AL

BG

RO

PL

LT

LV

EE

TR

MT

ITsic

ITs

ITcs

ITcn

ITsar

FR15

CY

TN00IL00

GR03

Inherited from TYNDP 2016New in TYNDP 2018

MaintenanceprofilesforeachpieceofinfrastructurehavebeenintroducedfortheENTSO-Eareausedbyallmarketmodellingexperts,whichresultsinahighlevel of alignment between market modeling software tool results.

Acomprehensivecomparisonprocesshasbeenimplemented to ensure adequate accuracy and robustnessoftheresults,whereeachsimulationresulthasbeenvalidatedbetweenvariousmarketmodelingsoftware tools.

AnewcrossborderNetTransferCapability(NTC)calculationmethodologyhasbeenintroducedandused.Thisallowedlimitationstobeappliedtothecross-bordertransfercapacityforeachborderbeforetheNTCvariationhasbeencalculatedforeachprojectforTYNDP2018.Thisisimportanttoavoidnetworkconstraintsbeingneglectedwhilemodellingeachseparatetransmissionproject.

Thetestshaveshown,thatbasecasegridcontainsmanyoverloadswhichthe“NTCcalculationmethod”discardedsinceitaimedatmakingthegridcongestionfree during only 30% of time (stemming from caveat inCBAmethodologywheredeltaNTCparameterislinkedtosuch30%rule).

Following,intheTYNDP18welargelystucktotheNTCassumptionsusedinpreviousMAF/TYNDPproductsforthesakeofconsistency.

ForthelossesvariationCBAindicatorinTYNDP2018,monetizationhasbeenimplementedonanhourlybasisusingmarketresultswithandwithouttheprojectbeingassessed,whileTYNDP2016consideredonlyaveragevalues.Thishasimprovedthequalityoftheresultsandallowedhigherprecisionindefinitionoflossesvalueforeachseparatemarketarea.

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Section 5

Cost Benefit Assessment (CBA)

The overall Cost Benefit Assessment (CBA) process has been conducted in a centralized manner in TYNDP 2018. Two central teams dedicated to market studies (MST) and network studies (NST) have been organized to implement the necessary calculations in a harmonized way.

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DuringtheCBAprocessatleastthreemarketmodelingsoftwaretoolshavebeenappointedtoassesseachoftheprojectssubmittedtotheTYNDP2018.ToavoiddistortionsintheaccuracyoftheresultstheoutlyingresultshavebeenexcludedfromthecomputationofthefinalCBAindicators.

Due to unique use of absolute and median average thresholdsfortheidentificationoftheoutlyingCBAmarketresults,thefinalresultswerefilteredconsideringthesensitivityofthealgorithmsofthemarketmodelingsoftwaretoolswhilekeepinginmindtheconsistencyofthemarketindicatordimension.Thisprocessallowedtherangesofuncertaintyintheresultstobereducedbyupto90%(whencomparedtoTYNDP2016marketCBAresultsasareference).

Furthermore,additionalindicatorshavebeenintroducedinTYNDP2018,whichallowedthebenefitsofprojectstobehighlightedinamoredetailedmanner.Asanexample,theSocio-economicwelfarecalculationhasbeenimprovedwiththecomputationoftwosub-indicators:RESfuelsavingsandemissioncostsavings(seeFigure5-1below).Theseprovideanindicationofthesourceofthesocio-economicbenefitforthattheprojectandconsequentlyanimprovedexplanationoftheoverallprojectbenefits.

Figure5.1Structureoftheprojectassessmentindicators

Benefits

B1Socio-economicwelfare

Costs Residual impacts

C1CAPEX S1 Environmental

C2OPEX S2 Social

S3Other

System adequacy

System security

B2 CO2 variation

B4Societalwell-being

B7 Flexibility

B3 RES integration

B6Adequacy

B5 Grid losses

B8Stability

RES fuel savings

Emission cost savings

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Section 6

System Needs

ForthefirsttimeENTSO-Ehasdoneananalysisonthesystemneedsforthe2040timehorizon.

Thereportaimstoaddressthequestions:— What should the electricity grid looklike in 2040 to

—CreatemaximumvalueforEuropeans,— Ensure continuous access to electricity

throughoutEurope,and —Deliverontheclimateagenda?—Whatwouldbethecostofnothavingtherightgrid

by2040?

Thereportisbasedonthethree2040scenarios.Inparticular,veryhighlevelsofrenewableenergysources (RES) of up to 75% of total demand could bereached.Inthissituation,Europeancountrieswill,morethanever,needtorelyoneachotherthroughcross-borderexchanges.Thisincreasestheneedforextendedcross-bordertransfercapacity,whichgoeshandinhandwithinternalreinforcementsofnationalgrids.ThisreportandthesixRegionalInvestmentPlansitaccompanies,presenthowtocomplementthepowersystemin2040inthemostefficientway.

ThereportscanbefoundontheTYNDP2018website(https://tyndp.entsoe.eu/)

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Section 7

Frequency Stability Studies

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This year, to enhance our inertia studies, ENTSO-E has undertaken an inertia collection, which consisted of collecting the inertia constants and installed capacity of all generation units in Europe. This allowed us to give much more accurate results when looking at the inertia of various synchronous areas in Europe, based on the future energy scenarios. The results of the simulations can be seen in the European Power System 2040.

Duetotheadditionofextramarketnodes,ENTSO-E is able to run frequency stability studies for all of the synchronous areas as follows:– Nordics– Baltics– GB– Ireland– Cyprus– Sardinia– Crete– Central Europe.

ThestabilitystudiesincludecalculatingSystemsInertia,Energy,RoCoF,ResidualLoadRampsandWindandSolarcontributiontodemand.Thiswasdonefor all 2030 and 2040 scenarios and can be done for the2020and2025scenarios.

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Section 8

Project Sheets

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The format of the project sheets in light of stakeholder comments and suggestions has been professionally redesigned and improved and can now be viewed online. The project sheets now include extra information which wasn’t present/ relevant in the previous versions of the TYNDP. This includes the effect of climate years on a particular project, inclusion of the sequential and normal CBA results, and additional explanation for societal wellbeing.

Inadditiontothecontentslastyear,theprojectsheetsshowthefollowinginformation

– ProjectType(Internal,GenerationconnectionorInterconnection)

– Systemneedaddressedbytheproject– Explanation for clustering of investments– AdditionalCBAindicator– Comparison of results using different climate years.

Thisinformationshouldgivereadersdeeperinsightsintoeachproject.

Section 9

Project Platform

This year ENTSO-E developed a standalone project platform which has been used for the collection of project information.

Theplatformhasbeenusedtocollectalltheprojectdata,TechnicalData,ProjectNeedsandAdditionalInformation.Theplatformhasanintegratedmappingfunctionwhichallowspromotorstodrawtheirinvestmentsonthemap.ThesemapsubmissionsareusedforthefinalTYNDPmapaswellastheprojectsheets.

AllENTSO-Ecalculatedresults,includingtheCBAresults,areprovidedtoprojectpromotersviatheplatformasandwhentheyareready.Thishasaddressed any concerns about equitable treatment of internal ENTSO-E members and 3rd party promotors.Theplatformincludedachangerequestfunctionswhichallowedprojectpromoterstostatetheir opinionsontheresultsintheeventthattheyhave any reservations.

ThiswasarelevantimprovementfromtheTYNDP2016process.ThisisthefirsttimethatENTSO-Ehasreleasedthisprocessandwillendeavortoimproveandsmoothentheprocessinproceedingproceduralupdates.Theseupdateswillutilizefeedbackreceivedfromprojectpromoters.

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