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TWEETINGRACIALREPRESENTATION:HowtheCongressionalBlackCaucususedTwitterinthe113thCongressAlvinB.Tillery,Jr.DepartmentofPoliticalScienceandDepartmentofAfricanAmericanStudies(bycourtesy),NorthwesternUniversityAcknowledgements:IwouldliketothankLauraDay,AnaEstrada,andAliceWelnafortheirassistancewiththis

research.

Abstract

InrecentdecadesTwitterhasemergedasbothavehicleforpoliticalexpressionand

powerfultoolforpoliticalorganizingwithintheAfricanAmericancommunity.Thispaper

examinestheextenttowhichmembersoftheCongressionalBlackCaucus(CBC)utilize

Twittertocommunicatewiththeirconstituentsaboutracialissues.AnanalysisofCBC

members’tweetsduringthe113thCongress(2013-2014)showsthattheorganization’s

membersdotalkaboutraceandoccasionallyuseraciallydistincthashtags.Italsoshows

thatCBCmemberstalkaboutracialissuesmuchlessthantheytalkaboutotherissues.

Moreover,statisticalmodelsshowthatthebestpredictorsofamembers’engagementwith

racialissuesonTwitterarebeingawoman,thesizeoftheirmarginofvictoryinthe2012

elections,andthepercentageofwhiteslivingwithintheboundariesoftheirdistrict.

Keywords:BlackMembersofCongress;BlackTwitter;CongressionalBlackCaucus;Race

Relations;Representation;Twitter

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INTRODUCTION Theriseofsocialmediainthelasttwodecadeshastransformedhumansocial

interactionsinanumberofways(Couldry2012;LovejoyandSaxton2012;O’Keeffeand

Clarke-Pearson,2011;VanDijck2013).Inthepoliticalarena,socialmediaplatformslike

FaceBookandTwitterhavebecomeimportantresourcesfororganizingprotestactivities

(DellaPortaandMosca,2005;EltantawyandWiest,2011Langman2005).Thesetools

havealsoemergedasimportantmeansforpoliticiansinadvanceddemocraciestodirectly

communicatewiththepublicduringtheircampaignsforofficeandalsoastheycarryout

theirrepresentativedutiesonceelected(Conwayetal.,2013;Druckmanetal.,2007;

Grahametal.,2014;Grantetal.,2010;TownerandDulio2012).

ThispaperexamineshowmembersoftheCongressionalBlackCaucususedTwitter

tocommunicatetheirideasaboutracialissuesduringthe113thCongress(2013-2014).

Twitterisapopularsocialnetworkingandmicrobloggingwebsite.Theserviceallows

registereduserstosendtextmessagesof140charactersorlessorsharephotosand

videos.Theprocessofpostingmessagesorvisualmediatotheserviceiscalled“tweeting”

intheparlanceofthesocialnetwork.Twitteralsoallowsregistereduserstofollowthe

accountsofotherusersinthenetworkforthepurposeofreadingtheirpublic“tweets”and

orengagingindirectcommunications.

Duringthefirstquarterof2017,thesitereportedthatitaveraged328millionusers

permonth.GivenTwitter’sreach,itisnotsurprisingthatmembersofCongresshave

embracedthewebsiteasameansofdirectcommunicationwiththeirconstituents(Golbeck

etal.,2010;Peterson2012;Shogan2010).ThescholarlyconsensusontheTwitterusageby

membersofCongressisthattheyprimarilyturntotheservicetoengageinformsof

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communicationaimedatbolsteringtheirprospectsforreelection(Druckmanetal.,2010;

Golbecketal.,2010;Peterson2012).Inotherwords,thesocialnetworkisutilizedforboth

the“position-taking”statementsthatDavidMayhew(1974)describesasessentialforall

membersofCongresshopingtowinreelectionandforengagingintheempatheticrhetoric

thatRichardFenno(1978)claimsiskeytodevelopinga“homestyle”thatfitsone’sdistrict.

Scholarshavelong-notedhowimportantitisforAfricanAmericanmembersof

Congresstoengageinposition-takingonracialissuesanddeployempatheticspeechabout

racerelationsinordertodevelopandmaintainrobust“homestyle”connectionswiththeir

constituents(Fenno2003;Singh1998;Smith1981;Tate2001;Tate2003;Tillery2006).

Themainquestionsaskedinthispaperare:DoBlackmembersofCongressuseTwitterto

takepositionsonracialissues?DotheytendtouseTwittertomakesymbolicstatements

aboutraceortoadvancepolicyproposalstoadvancetheinterestsoftheirAfrican

Americanconstituents?Finally,isTwitterusetoengageracialissuesuniformacrossthe

membershipoftheCongressionalBlackCaucusordosomeAfricanAmericanlegislators

useitmorethanothersforthesepurposes?

WhystudythetweetsofCBCmembers?Therearethreeanswerstothisquestion.

First,TwitterisheavilyutilizedwithintheAfricanAmericancommunity.Indeed,African

Americansare25percentofthepopulationoftheAmericanTwitterspheredespitethefact

thattheyareonly13.5percentofthepopulationoftheUnitedStates(Brock2012).

Moreover,severalrecentstudieshaveshownthatAfricanAmericansaccesstheserviceon

adailybasisatamuchhigherratethantheirwhitecounterparts(Foxetal.,2009;Horrigan

2009;Smith2010;SmithandBrenner2012).Inshort,Twitteristhespacewherethe

digitaldividebetweenAfricanAmericansandwhitesevaporates.Itisimportantto

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understandtheextenttowhichAfricanAmericanmembersofCongressareawareofthis

realityandseekingtocapitalizeonittoexpandtheirstrategiccommunicationsoperations.

Second,TwitteristhespacewhereAfricanAmericansaredeeplyengagedina

nationalconversationaboutboththemeaningofraceandracerelations(Carney2016;

Nakamura2008).SeveralstudieshavedemonstratedthatAfricanAmericandiscourseon

Twittertendstoreplicatetheuniqueidiomsandverbalpatterns—knowninbothcommon

parlanceandacademicstudiesas“signifyin”(Gates1983;Mitchell-Kernan1999)—that

havelongcirculatedinthecommunity’soraltraditions(Brock2012;Fiorini2013;Manjoo

2010).Someofthesesamestudiesalsoassertthat,justaswiththeirface-to-facespeech

acts,signifyin’onBlackTwitterisoftenaformofresistancetoracismandracialexclusions

(Brock2012;Fiorini2013).Recentstudieshavealsoelaboratedhowtheuseofhashtags

thatmakereferencetoracialissues—socalled“Blacktags”—canquicklytransformBlack

TwitterintoacounterpublicspacewhereAfricanAmericanscanjoindebatesaboutthe

importantissuesaffectingtheirracialgroupinrealtime(Carney2016;Sharma2013).

DetermininghowmuchCBCmembersparticipateinandseektodrivetheseconversations

onBlackTwitterhasthepotentialtoshedlightonthevaluethatindividualAfrican

Americanlegislatorsplaceontakingpositionsonracialissuesinthepost-CivilRightsera.

Third,studyingthetweetsofCongressionalBlackCaucusmembersalsoprovidesus

withanopportunitytofurtherdeveloppredictivemodelsofracialrepresentationintheUS

Congress.TheCongressionalBlackCaucuswasfoundedin1971.Studiesofthe

organizationinthisperiodhaveshownthatthethirteenAfricanAmericansservinginthe

HouseofRepresentativesathattimehadasetofexperiencesintheCivilRightsMovement

thatgavethemverysimilarideasabouthowtoachieveracialprogress(Barnett1975;

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Barnett1982;Henry1977;Singh1998).Inthiscontext,itwasnotverydifficultforthe

individualCBCmemberstoachievewhatRepresentativeWilliamClay,oneofthefounders

oftheorganization,calledinhismemoira“solidarityofpurposeandprogram”toadvance

theracialgroupinterestsofAfricanAmericans(Clay1993,117).

Anumberofstudieshaverevealedhowboththegrowthanddiversificationofthe

CBC’sranksintermsofage,experience,andrepresentationalcontextoverthepastfour

decadeshavegeneratedcross-pressuresthatmakeitmorechallengingforthelargergroup

tohangtogetheronracialissuesofnationalimport(Cannon1999;Singh1998;Tate2003;

Tate2014;Tillery2011,125-149;Whitby2007).Thestatisticalanalysespresentedinthis

paperwillallowustoascertainwhetherthesesametrendsholdintheTwittersphereas

wellorifotherpatternsorcleavageemerge.

Toanswerthesequestions,Ipresentasystematicanalysisofthetweetsofthe41

membersoftheCongressionalBlackCaucuswhoservedintheHouseofRepresentatives

duringthe113thCongress.The113thCongressprovidesanexcellentwindowtoexplorethe

waysthatCBCmembersuseTwitterforseveralreasons.First,atthetimethatitsmembers

wereswornin,the113thCongresswasthemostdiverseinthehistoryoftherepublic

(Hicks2013).Moreover,forthefirsttimeinU.S.history,womenandminoritiescomprised

themajorityoftheDemocraticParty’scaucusintheHouseofRepresentatives.Second,the

113thCongresswasthefirstseatedafterBarackObamawonreelectiontoasecondtermas

presidentoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica.IfCBCmembersuseTwitterinthesamestrategic

waysthattheynowpursuelegislativeactivities,wecanexpectthesedynamicstogenerate

incentivesforindividualAfricanAmericanlegislatorstotalkmoreaboutraceonTwitter.

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Thearticleproceedsasfollows.Thenextsectionplacesthisstudywithinthe

theoreticalcontextoftheextantliteratureonAfricanAmericanrepresentationand

articulatesthehypothesesthatwillbeevaluatedthroughquantitativeanalyses.Thepaper

thenshiftstoadescriptionofthedataandmethods.Fromthere,thepaperpresentsboth

thesummarystatisticsaboutCBCmembers’Twitterusageandstatisticalmodelsofthe

factorsthatpredictthebehaviorofAfricanAmericanMCsintheTwittersphere.The

concludingsectiondescribeshowtherelevanceofthemainfindingsforongoingdebates

aboutthenatureofAfricanAmericanrepresentationandtheinternaldynamicsofthe

CongressionalBlackCaucus.

THEORETICALCONTEXTANDHYPOTHESES

TheCongressionalBlackCaucuswasformedin1971(Barnett1975;Bositis1994;

Singh1998).TheorganizationwaspredicatedupontheexpansionoftheranksofAfrican

AmericanlegislatorsthatoccurredinthewakeoftheVotingRightsActof1965.Between

1928,whenOscarDePriest(R-IL)usheredinthemoderneraofAfricanAmericanservice

intheHouseofRepresentatives,and1955,therewerenomorethantwoAfricanAmericans

servinginCongressatthesametime.Between1955and1965,threemoreAfrican

AmericanmembersenteredCongressfromnewmajority-blackdistrictsinDetroit,MI,

Philadelphia,PA,andLosAngeles,CA.TheinfluxofnewAfricanAmericanvotersintothe

electorateintheelectionsof1968and1970swelledtheranksofAfricanAmericansserving

intheHouseofRepresentativestothirteenbythestartofthe93rdCongress.

AsSingh(1998,54-56)hasunderscored,whiletheAfricanAmericanlegislatorsthat

servedbetween1955and1965—Dawson,Powell,Diggs,Nix,andHawkins—did

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communicatewithoneanotheraboutracialissues,thenotionofaformalorganizational

structuredidnotemergeuntiltheinfluxofnewmembersinthe92ndCongress.InJanuary

1969,RepresentativeCharlesDiggs(D-MI;1955-1980)proposedtotheninemembersthen

servingintheHouseofRepresentativesthattheyestablishtheDemocraticSelect

Committee(DSC)tofomentbondsofattachmentbetweenthemandfacilitatetheirjoint

communicationswiththeDemocraticleadershipoftheHouseofRepresentatives(Barnett

1975;Clay1993;DuBose1998;Singh1998).AlthoughtheDSCcertainlyrepresentedthe

beginningofwhatthepoliticalscientistMargueriteRossBarnett(1975)termedthe

“collectivestage”ofblackrepresentationinCongress,itwasineffectivebecauseit“only

metsporadically”(34-35).

Bythestartofthe93rdCongress,theeightAfricanAmericanlegislatorselectedin

the1968and1970elections—manyofwhomhadsubstantialcredentialsasactivistsinthe

CivilRightsMovement—begantopressforthedevelopmentofamorerobustorganization

(Clay1993;Dellums2000;Singh1998).RepresentativeWilliamL.Clay(D-MO;1969-

2001),describestheimpetustoestablishtheCBCinhismemoirsasgrowingoutofthe

fearsofthe“newmembers”thattheDSCwould“degenerateintoaKongressionalKoffee

KlatchKlub”withoutamorerobustorganizationalstructure(1993,117).Inhismemoirs,

RepresentativeRonald“Ron”V.Dellums(DA-CA;1971-1998)sharesClay’srecollectionsof

whytheCBCreplacedtheDSCin1971(Dellums2000).Healsostatesthatthecohortof

AfricanAmericanlegislatorselectedduringtheelectionsof1968and1970felta

tremendous“burdenofrepresenting…the12percentoftheUnitedStatespopulationthat

wasblackandwhichhadhistoricallybeenunderservedbygovernmentand[despitethe

recentelectoralgains]wasstillunderrepresentedinCongress”(Dellums2000,94).In

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otherwords,thefoundersoftheCBCsawtheirorganization’sroleasanexplicitlyracial

one—providingrepresentationtoboththeirhomedistrictsandanationalAfrican

Americanconstituency.

ThefirstacademicstudiesoftheCBCfocusedonthelegitimacyofthegroup’s

decisiontoorganizationalongraciallinesandexcludewhitesfromfullmembership

(BarkerandMcCorry1976;Henry1977).Thesestudies,whichwerepartlyresponsesto

criticismofthemereideaofracialcaucusesprofferedbytheconservativehistorianDaniel

Boorstin(Raspberry1975),contextualizedtheformationoftheCBCbylocatingthe

organizationsquarelywithinthehistoryofracerelationsintheUnitedStatesandthelong

CivilRightsMovement.CharlesHenry(1975),forexample,pointedoutthattheformation

oftheCBCwasaresponsetothehistoricalrealitiesthat“theSouthernblochasrepeatedly

declareditselfforthewhiterace”andthatAfricanAmericansareandwouldremain

underrepresentedinCongressfordecadesaftertheCBC’sfounding(149-150).

HenryalsoarguedthattheextrememinoritypositionoftheCBCwithinthelarger

Congress—in1971AfricanAmericanlegislatorsweretwopercentofthepopulationofthe

HouseofRepresentatives—meantthattheywouldhaveto“persuade[some]non-black

memberstosupport”their“racialpublicpolicy”(150).Inshort,Henrybelievedthelong-

termlegitimacyoftheCBCwouldbepredicatedupontheirabilitytoprovidebothsymbolic

andsubstantiverepresentation.Moreover,hisanalysisoftheorganization’slegislative

agendasinthe93rdand94thCongressesshowedthatAfricanAmericanlegislatorsappeared

tobeawareoftheirdualmissiontoprovidetheirconstituentswith“bothsymbolic

leadershipandtangiblebenefits”(152).

Thedichotomybetweensymbolicandsubstantiverepresentationwasaconsistent

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themeinotherearlystudiesoftheCBC.MargueriteRossBarnett’s(1975;1977)landmark

studiesoftheinternaldynamicsandlegislativeagendasoftheCBCduringthe93rdand94th

conceptualizedthetwotypesofrepresentationasthepolarendsofacontinuumofpower.

InBarnett’sview,theCBChadbehavedalmostexclusivelyasagroupinterestedin

symbolicrepresentationduringtheir“collectivestage”ofdevelopmentinthe93rd

Congress.Inthisperiod,theCBCengagedinalargenumberofextra-institutionalactivities

aimedatdemonstratingthattheywere“Congressmenatlargefor20millionBlackpeople”

(Barnett1975,36).WhilethiscollectivestagecertainlyraisedthevisibilityoftheCBC

withintheblackcommunity,itdidverylittletoburnishthelegislativeprofilesofeitherthe

organizationoritsindividualmembers.

Moreover,itbecameveryclearduringthe93rdCongressthat,despitetheirshared

commitmenttoimprovingthelivesofAfricanAmericans,therewasoftenalackof

consensusamongCBCmembersaboutwhatsymbolicactivitiestheyshouldpursueto

furtherthisend(Barnett1975,36-39).Thus,Barnettreportsthatatthestartofthe94th

Congress,theCBCenteredan“ethnicstage”ofdevelopmentinwhichAfricanAmerican

legislatorsbegantobehaveasiftherewasa“parallelbetweenthepoliticalassimilationof

blacksandthepoliticalassimilationofwhiteethnicgroup”(Barnett1975,40).Inother

words,CBCmembersbegantoadopttheattitudethattheirlegislativeprofilesinserviceof

theirindividualconstituenciesweretheirtopprioritiesandthatsomedegreeofpolitical

assimilationwithintheHouseofRepresentativeswouldbenecessarytoachievethese

profiles.Atthestartofthe94thCongress,theCBCadoptedaseriesofreformsaimedat

smoothingtheirassimilationintotheDemocraticPartyCaucusandboostingtheir

effectivenessaslegislatorswithintheHousechamber(Barnett1975,41-44;Barnett1977,

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23-25).

BarnettsawtheCBC’seffortstoparedowntheirsymbolicactivitiesandfocusmore

onlegislationinthe94thCongressaslargelyasuccess.Despitethisfact,sheremained

somewhatcircumspectaboutthefutureprospectsoftheCBCfortworeasons.First,she

believedthatracialpoliticsintheUnitedStateswouldalwayscreateconditionsthatwould

makeitnecessaryforAfricanAmericanlegislatorsto“oscillate”betweenthecollectiveand

ethnicrepresentationalstyles(1977,48-50).Second,Barnettfearedthatthecross

pressuresAfricanAmericanlegislatorsfacedto“representblackscollectivelyasaholistic

unit”anddealwiththeir“individualpoliticalcircumstances”mightstifletheirabilityto

passlegislation(1977,50).

TheranksoftheCBChavegrownbymorethan300percentsincethe93rdCongress.

Throughoutthisentireperiod,Congressscholarshaveconsistentlyrevisitedthequestions

posedbyHenryandBarnettintheirpioneeringstudiesoftheorganization.Theconsensus

withintheliteratureisthatAfricanAmericanlegislatorsarenowfullyintegratedintothe

DemocraticParty’sCaucusintheHouseofRepresentatives.Indeed,CBCmembers

routinelyserveasthechairsofpowerfulstandingcommitteesandinseniorleadership

postswithintheDemocraticParty’shierarchy(Bositis1994,18-21;Haynie2005;Minta

2011,62-64;Singh1998,175-178;Tate2014,22-25).Moreover,araftofrecent

quantitativestudiesexaminingtheroll-callvotesofCBCmembershavefoundthatmore

oftenthannottheytaketheircuesfromtheDemocraticleadershiponmostpiecesof

legislation(Cannon1999;Sinclair-Chapman2002;Tate2003;Tate2014).Inshort,theCBC

hasachievedaleveloflegitimacyandinstitutionalizationwithintheHouseof

Representativesthatthefirstgenerationofscholarstoexaminetheorganizationcouldnot

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haveforeseeninthe1970s.

However,thefactthatthemedianmembersoftheCBCandtheDemocraticParty’s

CaucusintheHouseofRepresentativesnowtendtoconvergeonroll-callvotesdoesnot

mean,asSwain(1992)hasargued,thatAfricanAmericanandwhitelegislatorsprovide

identicalrepresentationtoAfricanAmericanconstituents.Onthecontrary,therecent

literaturehasidentifiedseveralwaysinwhichAfricanAmericanlegislatorsprovideunique

benefitstotheirAfricanAmericanconstituentsandtheentirenation.KatherineTate’s

(2003)analysesofthe103rdand104thCongresses,forexample,foundthat“Black

Democrats’votingbehaviorasmeasuredbyPooleandRosenthal[was]significantlymore

consistentwiththeliberalDemocraticpartyagendathanthatofWhiteandotherminority

Democraticlegislator”(p.85).Inotherwords,despitevotingwiththeirpartyonthe

overwhelmingmajorityofrollcallvotes,AfricanAmericanlegislatorshavedemonstrateda

persistentwillingnesstobreakranksinordertopromoteanddefendliberalpoliciesonthe

flooroftheHouseofRepresentatives.Moreover,severalstudieshaveshownthatAfrican

Americanlegislatorsarefarmorelikelythantheirwhitecounterpartstointroduceand

championbillsadvancingtheinterestsofAfricanAmericansinbothcommitteesandonthe

Housefloor(Canon1999;Gamble2007;Grose2011;Minta2009;MintaandSinclair-

Chapman2013;Sinclair-Chapman2003;Tate2003;Whitby1998).

ThefactthatAfricanAmericanlegislatorsasagroupdemonstrateahigher-level

commitmenttorepresentingtheinterestsofAfricanAmericansdoesnotmeanthatthereis

unanimitywithintheCBConeverypolicymatter.NordoesitmeanthateveryCBCmember

demonstratesanequalcommitmenttocarryingtheburdenofrepresentingAfrican

AmericaninterestsinCongress.Indeed,thereisbroadconsensuswithinrecentstudiesof

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theCBCthattheexpansionandinstitutionalizationofthegrouphasledtogreater

fragmentationonpolicymatters(Bositis1994;Singh1998;Tate2003;Tate2014;Tillery

2011).

Theextantliteraturesuggeststhatthisfragmentationbecameparticularlyacute

afterthe1992nationalelections.Theresultsofthisfistelectionafterthe1990

reapportionmentofCongressboostedthenumberofCBCmembersservingintheHouseof

Representativesfrom24to38.Thefourteen-seatpickupintheHouseofRepresentatives

wasthelargestgaininblackmembershipinasingleelectoralcycleinthehistoryofthe

institution(Bositis1994;Singh1998).Thepersistentcollectiveactionproblemsstemming

fromthedistinctlegislativeprioritiesandhomestylesofCBCmembersintensifiedwiththis

largeexpansionoftheorganization’sranks.“Largerblacknumbers,”writesthepolitical

scientistRobertSingh,“servedmovetoexacerbatefurtherthealreadystronginternal

fragmentationandcollectiveactionproblemsfacingtheCBCthantoassistits

organizationalstrength”(1998,173).Manystudieshavepointedtotheincredible

heterogeneityintermsoftheages,careertrajectories,andpoliticalexperiencesoftheCBC

membersthatarrivedafter1992(Singh1998;Tate2003).Moreover,thefactthatmostof

thenewmemberswereelectedfromsoutherndistrictswithhigherproportionsofrural

residentsmeantthattheCBC,whichhadhistoricallyfocusedonurbanissues,wouldneed

toincorporateanewsetofpolicyagendasiftheyweregoingtohangtogether(Canon

1999;ChampagneandRieselbach1995;Singh1998;Tate2003).

AlthoughKatherineTate(2003)wasinitiallyaproponentofviewthatthegrowing

southernblocwithintheCBCafterthe1992electionswasasourceoffragmentation,her

recentworkcastsdoubtonthisthesis.Indeed,Tate’s(2014)landmarkstudyoftherollcall

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activityofAfricanAmericanlegislatorsbetween1977and2010showsthat:“The[CBC’s]

movefrommoreradicallyLeftpositionstomoremoderateonesandthemovetovotemore

frequentlywiththeHousemajoritywhentheirpartyisinpowerhasoccurred

independentlyofthechangeinmembershipbroughtaboutbytheelectionofnewblack

moderatesfromtheSouth,suchasMikeEspy(D-MS)andArturDavis(D-AL)”(4).Tate

arguesthatwhenyouviewthelegislativeactivityofCBCmembersoverthelongerterm,it

becomesclearthat“incorporationinthesystemhasmadeBlacklegislativeleadersless

radicalandmorepragmatic”and“lesslikelytochallengepartyandDemocraticpresidential

leadershipthroughideologicaldebate”(2014,4-5).

TherichliteratureontheCBCandracialrepresentationhaslargelyelidedthe

rhetoricofAfricanAmericanlegislators.Thisisnotsurprisinggiventhetraditionalbarriers

associatedwithconstructingacomprehensivedatasetofthespeechactsofmembersof

Congressfromgovernmentdocumentsandmediasources.Whiletechnological

developmentslikecomputer-assistedcontentanalysisnowmakeitpossibletoevaluate

largevolumesoftextinashorttime,thedigitizationofpublicrecordsandlocalmedia

sourcesremainsspottyatbest.Althoughtweets—withtheir140characterlimits—arenot

aperfectrepresentationofallofthecomplexspeechthatmembersofCongresslikely

engageinduringasession,therewideaccessibilityandpublic-facingnaturemaketheman

excellentproxyforthemorecomplexspeechacts.Inotherwords,sincemembersof

Congressknowthattheirtweetsarepublic,itislikelythattheyapproachthe

Twitterspherewiththesamestrategiclensthattheyapplytotheirspeechactsonthefloor

oftheHouseandotherdimensionsoftheirlegislativebehavior.

Buildingonthisassumption,Itransposethefollowingfourhypothesesfromthe

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literatureonrollcallvotingtothisstudyofCBCmembers’Twitterusageduringthe113th

Congress:

H1: CBCmemberselectedafterthe103rdCongressarelikelytotalklessabout

raceonTwitterthantheircolleagueselectedafterthistime.

H2: CBCmemberswhoholdleadershippositionswithinthepartystructureare

likelytotalklessaboutraceonTwitterthantheircolleagueswhodonothold

suchpositions.

H3: CBCmembersfrommoreruraldistrictsarelikelytotalklessaboutraceon

Twitterthantheircolleaguesfromdistrictswithgeography.

H4: CBCmembersfromdistrictswithhigherconcentrationsofwhitevotersare

likelytotalklessaboutraceonTwitter.

Iwilltestthesehypothesesaspartofstatisticalmodelsthatutilizewithcontrol

variablestoapproximateothermember-levelanddistrict-levelcharacteristics.

Confirmationofthesehypotheseswillsuggestthatthereisverisimilitudebetweenthe

waysAfricanAmericanmembersofCongressapproachtheirlegislativeactivitiesand

Twitterusage.ItwillalsoprovideevidencethattheinstitutionalizationoftheCBCshapes

thewaythatAfricanAmericanmemberscommunicatewiththeirconstituents.The

followingsectionexplicatesthedatasourcesandmethodsthatIutilizetotestthese

hypotheses.

DATAANDMETHODS

Thesystematicstudyofmediarepresentationsorcontentanalysishaslongbeena

toolemployedbysocialscientistsinmultiplefields(Lasswell1965;Holsti1969;Weber

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1990;Neuendorf2002;Krippendorff2004;Franzosi2004).Scholarsofracialandethnic

politicshavebecomeparticularlyadeptatusingthemethodinrecentyears(e.g.,Cohen

1994;Reeves1997;Entman1997;Mendelberg2001;Lee2002;CaliendoandMcIlwain

2006;Parker2009;Tillery2011).Thisstudyusedcontentanalysistodeterminehow

membersoftheCongressionalBlackCaucususedTwitterduringthe113thCongress.

Twoindependentcodersreadtheentireuniverseof71,905tweetsthatappearedon

thepublicfeedsofthe41membersoftheCBCduringthe113thCongress(whichwasin

sessionbetweenJanuary3,2013andJanuary5,2015).Themostcomprehensivestudyof

CongressionalTwitterusagetodatefoundthatmembersofCongresstendtousethe

servicemoretoshareinformationaboutgovernmentservicesandtheirdailyactivitieswith

theirconstituentsthantodiscusspoliticalorpolicyproblems(Golbecketal,2010).This

studyreinforcesthisfinding,as70percentoftheuniverseoftweetsconformstothis

patternofbehavior.Moreover,thevastmajorityoftheseinformationaltweetswere

initiallygeneratedbyotherusers—i.e.,federalgovernmentagencies,stateandmunicipal

agencies,andnewsorganizations—andsubsequentlyshared(or“retweeted”)byCBC

members.

SincethemaingoalofthisstudyistogleanwhetherCBCmembersusetheirTwitter

feedstocommunicatedirectlyaboutracialissues,onlythe21,692originaltweetsauthored

bythememberandortheirpersonnelareincludedinthedataset.Thecodersculledthe

tweetsaboutracefromthislargersampleandcategorizedthembyissuearea,theracial

group(orgroups)referencedinthetweet,andwhetheritscontentwassymbolicor

substantive.Thecodersalsoindicatedwhetherornotthetweetusedahashtagtomakeit

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morevisibleonTwitter;andrecordedthecontentofthesehashtagswhentheywere

utilized.

Theintercoderreliabilityforthe41contentanalysesthatserveasthefoundation

forthispaperis.81percent.Inthe19percentofcaseswherethecodersdisagreedwith

oneanother,athirdcoderwasengagedtobreaktheseties.Oncethetweetdatasetwas

completed,Iconductedregressionanalysesinordertotestthefourhypothesesdescribed

above.Asisoftenthecasewithcountdata,thedistributionoftheobservationsisnon-

normal.Toaccountforthisproblem,IutilizethePoissonregressiontechnique,whichisa

commonmethodforcorrectingforoverdisperseddata(Frome1983;Lawless1987;

Gardneretal.,1995),todevelopthestatisticalmodelspresentedbelow.

FINDINGS

Someveryinterestingresultsemergedfromtheanalysisofthesubsetof21,692

originaltweetsmadebyCBCmembersduringthe113thCongress.Thefirstimportant

findingisthatCBCmembersdoindeedtalkaboutracialissuesonTwitter.However,when

oneexaminesthetotalityoftheoriginaltweetsofthe41members,itbecomesclearthatas

agrouptheytalkaboutracealotlessthanwemighthaveexpectedgiventhevitalrolethe

organizationhashistoricallyplayedinrepresentingminorityinterestsintheCongress.

Indeed,theentireuniverseofracetweetswasonly2,403or11percentofthetotal

numberoforiginalcontenttweets.ThismeansthattheaverageCBCmembertweeted

aboutraceonly59timesduringthe113thCongress.AsFigure1,whichdisplaysthe

universeofCBCmembers’tweetsbycontentcategory,tweetsabouteconomicissues(29

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percent),symbolicpolitics(18percent),andconstituencyservice(16percent)areallmuch

largerpercentagesofthetotalthanaretweetsaboutracialissues.

INSERTFIGURE1ABOUTHERE

ThisdoesnotmeanthatcommunicatingaboutracialissuesisunimportanttoCBC

members.Onthecontrary,asFigure1alsoshows,theytweetaboutracemorethanthey

tweetaboutpartisanpolitics(10percent),legislativeactivitiesontheflooroftheHouseof

Representatives(7percent)andtheirowncampaignsforreelection(2percent).

Moreover,thecontentanalysesconductedforthisstudydidfindevidencethatCBC

membersengageinthepracticeofusingraciallydistincthashtagsor“Blacktags”forsome

oftheirtweets.Indeed,thirty-oneCBCmembers—76percentofthecaucus—usedatleast

oneBlacktagduringthe113thCongress.AsFigure2shows,themostfrequentlyused

Blacktagwas#TrayvonMartin,whichCBCmemberstweetedatotalof55timesduringthe

113thCongress.ThisisnotsurprisinggiventhefactthatTrayvonMartin’stragicdeathat

thehandsofGeorgeZimmermanignitedanationalconversationwithintheAfrican

Americancommunityaboutracialprofilingandracialbiasinthejusticesystem(Hodges

2015;SchmittelandSanderson2015).

INSERTFIGURE2ABOUTHERE

ThesecondmostfrequentlyusedBlacktagwas#BlackMenEnroll.CBCmembersmarked

theirtweetsusingthisraciallydistincthashtag55timesduringthe113thCongress.The

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#BlackMenEnrollmarkerwascreatedbyCBCmemberstoencourageAfricanAmerican

mentosignupforcoverageundertheAffordableCareAct.

WhatismissingfromtheBlacktagsofCBCmembersduringthe113thCongressis

alsointeresting.Thehashtag#BlackLivesMatterwascreatedbyAliciaGarza,Patrisse

Cullors,andOpalTomettiin2013indirectresponsetotheTrayvonMartinmurdercase

(Garza2014).Sincethattime,ithasbecomeoneofthemostwidelyutilizedBlacktagson

Twitter(FreelonandMcIlwain2016).DespitethefactthatmanyCBCmemberstookpartin

BLMralliesandactivitiesthroughoutthecountry,thehashtaghadnotgainedanytraction

withCBCmembersbythecloseofthe113thCongress.Indeed,onlyonemember,

RepresentativeFredericaWilson(D-FL),markedatweet#BlackLivesMatterduringthe

termofthe113thCongress.

ItisnotsurprisingthatRepresentativeWilsonwasthefirstCBCmembertouse

#BlackLivesMatterinoneofhertweets.Sheisthemostactivetweeteronracialissuesin

theCongressionalBlackCaucus.Again,theaverageCBCmembertweeted59timesabout

racialissuesduringthe113thCongress.RepresentativeDannyDavis’s(D-IL)eighttweets

representedtheminimumnumberinthesample.RepresentativeWilson’s420tweets

aboutracewasseventimestheaveragenumber.

So,whatseparatesfrequenttweetersaboutracialissueslikeRepresentativeWilson

fromaverageandlowcommitmenttweetersintheCongressionalBlackCaucus?Toanswer

thisquestion,IusedPoissonregressionstodevelopamodelthebehaviorofCBCmembers

intheTwittersphere.Thefourhypothesesdescribedabovearethefoundationsofthe

equationsusedtofitthemodelsreportedinthissection.RecallthatH1(CBCmembers

after1992willtalklessaboutraceonTwitter)andH2(CBCmembersholdingaleadership

19

positionwithintheDemocraticPartyCaucuswilltalklessaboutraceonTwitter)suggest

thatmembercharacteristicsarestrongpredictorsofaCBCmember’slikelihoodtotweet

aboutracialissues.Thepaperteststhesehypothesesusingthefollowingmodel:

(1) Log(NumberofRaceTweets)=Intercept+b1(Pre-1992Cohort)+

b2(Leadership)+b3(Gender)+b4(Age)+b5(CBCFounder)+

b6(MOV2012).

Table1presentsasummaryoftheresultsofthePoissonregressionscoefficientsfor

thismodelundertheheading“Model1:MemberCharacteristics.”Ofthesixvariables

includedintheregressionmodel,theonlystatisticallysignificantfindingisthatCBC

memberselectedpriorto1992tendtotweetlessaboutracethantheircolleagueswho

wereelectedafterthistime.H1predictedjusttheoppositetrendbasedontheconsistent

findingswithintheliteratureonCBCmembers’rollcallvotesthatthepre-1992cohortwas

morepronetointroducelegislationfocusedonraceandchallengepartyleadershipabout

theseissues.Thefindingthatthepre-1992cohortinthissamplespeakslessaboutrace

thantheircolleaguescertainlycastsdoubtonthevalidityofH1.Moreover,thefactthat

servingintheleadershipstructureoftheDemocraticPartyisnotastatisticallysignificant

predictorofthepropensityofCBCmemberstotweetaboutrace—andthatsignofthe

coefficientforthevariableispositive—underminessupportforH2withinthismodel.

H3(CBCmembersfrommoreruraldistrictswilltalklessaboutraceonTwitter)and

H4(CBCmembersfromdistrictswithmorewhitevoterswilltalklessaboutraceon

Twitter)pointtowardtheroleofdistrictdemographicsasanexplanatoryfactor.Equation

2specifiesthegeneralmodeloftherolethatdistrictdemographicsplayinexplainingthe

behaviorofCBCmembersonTwitter.

20

(2) Log(NumberofRaceTweets)=Intercept+b1(%White)+b2(%Rural)+

b3(%Unemployed)+b4(%Poverty)+b5(%ForeignBorn)+b6(MedianAge)+

b7(MedianAge).

TheresultsofthePoissonregressionusedtofitthismodelarepresentedunderthe

columnentitled“Model2:DistrictDemographics.”Thecoefficientfor%Rural,thevariable

thatmeasuresthepercentageofthelandineachdistrictclassifiedasrural,carriesa

negativesign;whilethisfindingisconsistentwiththeexpectationsofH3,thevariableis

notastatisticallysignificantpredictorinthemodel.Thepercentageofwhiteresidents

withinadistrictisastatisticallysignificantpredictorofCBCmembers’tweetsaboutraceat

the.10-level.Thisfinding,however,doesnotconfirmH4becausethesignonthevariable’s

coefficientispositive.Inotherwords,H4predictsthatahigherconcentrationofwhites

withinthedistrictwillleadCBCmemberstotweetlessaboutracebutModel2yieldsthe

oppositeeffect.TheotherstatisticallysignificantpredictorinModel2isthemedianageof

thedistrict.Asmedianageoftheirdistrictsincreases,CBCmemberstweetmoreabout

racialissues.

INSERTTABLEONEABOUTHERE

Table1alsoreportstheresultsofaPoissonregressionmodelthatcombinesthe

membercharacteristicsanddistrictdemographicsintooneequation.Theequationisas

follows:

21

(3)Log(NumberofRaceTweets)=Intercept+b1(Pre-1992Cohort)+

b2(Leadership)+b3(Gender)+b4(Age)+b5(CBCFounder)+b6(MOV2012)+

b7(%White)+b8(%Rural)+b9(%Unemployed)+b10(%Poverty)+

b11(%ForeignBorn)+b12(MedianAge).

TheresultsofthePoissonregressiontestingthisequationarereportedinthecolumn

labeled“Model3.”

AsTable1illustrates,thecombinedmodel,withitsR2of.54,holdsgreater

predictivepowerthaneitherModel1orModel2.Moreover,severalvariablesemergeas

statisticallysignificantpredictorsofCBCmembers’racialdiscourseonTwitter.Genderis

thestrongestpredictorofCBCmembers’engagementwithracialissuesonTwitter.On

average,womenCBCmemberstweetedaboutrace.695moretimesthantheirmale

counterpartsduringthe113thCongress.Thisresultwassignificantatthe.01percentlevel.

Twoothervariablesinthemodel—theCBCmember’smarginofvictoryin2012

(MOV2012)andthepercentageofwhiteslivingwithinthemember’sdistrict(%White)—

werealsosignificantatthislevel.Thepersistenceofthefindingthatmorewhitesintheir

districtsleadsCBCmemberstotweetmoreaboutraceonTwitterunderminesthe

traditionalviewthatrepresentingmoreraciallydiversedistrictsleadsAfricanAmerican

legislatorstowardgreatermoderationonracialissues.

Model3alsoyieldedthreepredictorvariablesthatweresignificantatthe.05

percentlevel.CBCmembersbelongingtothePre-1992cohorttweetedaboutrace.603

timeslessthantheircolleagueselectedafter1992.Thevariable“MedianAge”movedtothe

higherlevelofsignificanceinModel3.Moreover,thevariable“%Rural”maintainedits

negativesignandmovedtothe.05percentlevelofsignificance.Thisresultprovidessome

22

empiricalsupportforH3.ThemostsurprisingresultinModel3istheemergenceofthe

variable“SouthernDistrict”asastatisticallysignificantpredictoratthe.10percentlevel

andthechangeinthecoefficient’ssignfromnegativetopositive.Thiscutsagainstthe

argumentthattheelectionofmembersfrommoreconservativesoutherndistrictswasone

explanationfortheincreasingfragmentationwithintheCBCinthewakeofitsmajor

growthspurtafterthe1992elections.

CONCLUSION

ThisstudyexaminedthebehaviorofCBCmembersonthemicro-bloggingsite

Twitterduringthe113thCongress.GiventheoverallpopularityofTwitteranditssustained

growthandreachwithintheAfricanAmericancommunity,Iwantedtoknowifindividual

CBCmembersusedtheiraccountstotalkaboutracialissues.Ialsowantedtoknowwhat

variablesmadeCBCmembersmoreorlesslikelytotweetaboutrace.

PreviousstudieshadfoundthatmembersofCongresstendtouseTwittertomake

statementsdesignedtobolstertheirprospectsforreelectionbysharinginformationabout

theservicestheyareprovidingtotheirdistricts(Druckmanetal.,2010;Golbecketal.,

2010;Peterson2012).ThisstudyconfirmsthatthebehaviorofCBCmembersonTwitter

followsasimilarpattern.Aswehaveseen,35percentofthetweetsoriginatingfromthe

accountsofCBCmembersfallintocontentcategoriesthatenhancetheirabilitytoclaim

creditonanissueorotherwisereinforcetheirhomestyles.Moreover,anadditional18

percentoftheCBCmembers’tweetsduringthe113thCongressarecraftedtoreinforce

theirstandingassymbolicrepresentativesoftheirdistricts.Theanalysisalsoshowedthat

CBCmembers’tweetsaboutracialissuescomprisedonly11percentoftheirtotalactivity

23

onthesiteduringthe113thCongress.Thisfiguremadeitthefourthmostfrequentcontent

categoryaftereconomicissues(29percent),symbolicpolitics(18percent),and

constituencyservice(16percent).

Asstatedabove,thereisconsiderablediscussionintheextantliteratureonTwitter

abouttheservice’sroleasacomponentoftheblackcounterpublic(Carney2016;

Nakamura2008).AgooddealofthisdiscussionrevolvesaroundthewaysthatAfrican

Americansreplicatetheirdistinctculturalidiomsonthesitethrough“signifyin”behaviors

andtheuseofraciallydistincthashtags(or“Blacktags”).ThisstudyfoundthatCBC

membersdonottendto“signify”onTwitter.Moreover,whiletheydouse“Blacktags,”they

dosoquitesparingly.Forexample,inthesameyearthat#BlackLivesMatterburstintothe

nationalconsciousnessonTwitter,onlyoneCBCmember,RepresentativeFredericaWilson

(D-FL),whowasthemostactiveTwitteruserintheCBCduringthe113thCongress,marked

atweetwiththedesignation.

TheempiricalresultsfromthePoissonregressionsusedtotestModels1,2,and3

showsthatgenderisthebestpredictorofwhetherornotaCBCmemberwillspeakabout

raceonTwitter.ThewomenintheCBCspokeoutonracialissueswithsomewhatgreater

regularlythantheirmalecolleagues.Moreover,thisfindingmaintainsitsrobustnesseven

whenyouremoveRepresentativeFredericaWilson(D-FL),whotweetsaboutraceatsix

timestherateoftheaverageCBCmember,fromtheanalysis.Thefindingthatthewomenof

theCBCarethemostoutspokenaboutracialissuesonTwitterisconsistentwithseveral

recentstudiesabouttheimportancethatAfricanAmericanwomenattachtoproviding

racialrepresentationwithinlegislativebodiesaspartoftheirintersectionalpolitics

(Brown2014;BrownandGershon2016;Smooth2008;Smooth2011).

24

ThetwoothermostimportantpredictorsofCBCmembers’tweetsaboutraceduring

the113thCongressweretheirmarginsofvictoryduringthe2012electionandthe

percentageofwhiteslivingwithintheboundariesoftheirdistricts.Sincetheliteratureon

legislativestudieshaslongheldthatpoliticallysafemembersofdeliberativebodiesare

freertoassumepoliticalrisks(Fiorina1973;Mayhew1974;SullivanandUslaner1978),

thefindingthatwinningbyalargermargininthepreviouselectionfreedupCBCmembers

totalkmoreaboutraceonTwitterisnotatallsurprising.Bycontrast,thefindingthat

higherconcentrationsofwhiteswithintheirdistrictsencouragedCBCmemberstotalk

moreaboutraceonTwitterdoescutagainsttheconventionalwisdomwithinlegislative

studies.

Theextantliteratureofelectionsin“bi-racial”districtssuggeststhatAfrican

Americanlegislatorswithmoreintegrateddistrictsshouldexhibitgreatercautionwhen

dealingwithracialissues(AustinandMiddleton2004;McCormickandJones1993;Perry

1991;Smith1990).ThefactthatCBCmemberswhosedistrictshadhigherconcentrations

ofwhitevotersduringthe113thCongresstweetedmoreaboutracialissuesthantheir

counterpartssuggeststhatitistimetorethinkthisaxiom.PerhapsCBCmemberswho

representdistrictswithhighconcentrationsofwhitevotersevenseeitasintheirinterests

totalkmoreaboutraceonTwitterinordertokeeptheirAfricanAmericanconstituents

mobilizedagainstelectoralthreats.

ThefindingsthatthecohortofCBCmembersthatservedpriortotheelectionof

1992speaklessaboutracialissuesonTwitterandthatCBCmembersrepresenting

southerndistrictstweetmoreaboutracebothchallengetheconventionalwisdomabout

thenatureofideologicalchangewiththeorganization.Aswehaveseen,rollcallvoting

25

studiesdoneinthe1990sandearly2000sfoundthattheexpansionoftheCBCafterthe

1992electionshiftedthenatureofthegroupbecausemoreconservativesouthern

membersjoinedtheorganization(Bositis1994;Canon1999;Tate2003).Tate’s(2014)

landmarkstudyoftherollcallvotingbehaviorofAfricanAmericanlegislatorsbetween

1977and2010hasraisedquestionsaboutthevalidityoftheseassumptionsbecausethe

cohortthatenteredin1992doesnotlooksubstantiallydifferentwithinthebroader

contextofthedata.Inotherwords,thelongertimehorizonofTate’sstudyshowsthat

manyoftheassumptionsformedbystudyingtheoneortwoCongressesthatclustered

aroundtheelectionof1992weresnapshotsthatappliedonlytothoseparticularmoments

intheCBC’shistory.WhilethisstudybolstersTate’sclaims,itisimportanttonotethatasa

studyofCBCmembers’rhetoricinoneCongressitfacesthesamelimitationsasthestudies

ofrollcallvotingreferencedabove.

Itisalsoimportanttorecognizethatthisstudyisasnapshotthatwastakenina

momentjustaftertheCBChadexperiencedahigherthanaveragenumberofretirements.

Inordertobuildtrulydurabletheoriesaboutthepublic-facingracialrhetoricofCBC

membersinthepost-CivilRightsEra,itwillrequirescholarstoexaminethegroup’s

behaviorovermultipleCongress.Asstatedabove,evenwithadvancesincomputer-assisted

contentanalysis,buildingsuchamulti-Congressdatabasewillrequireaconsiderable

investmentoftimeandintellectualresources.Thisstudyshouldserveasabaselinefor

theseefforts.

26

Correspondingauthor:ProfessorAlvinB.Tillery,Jr.,DepartmentofPoliticalScience,

NorthwesternUniversity,601UniversityPlace,Evanston,IL60208.E-mail:

alvin.tillery@northwestern.edu

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APPENDIX:

Descriptionofindependentvariablesandcoding

ThecodingschemesfortheindependentvariablesutilizedinthePoissonregression

analysesarelistedbelow.Thevariablesarelistedinalphabeticalorder.

1.) Age:Thisisaratiovariable;therangeisfrom38to85.

34

2.) CBCFounder:Thisisadummyvariable;coded0formemberswhowerenotpart

ofthefoundingcohortand1formemberswhowerefounders.

3.) Gender:Thisisadummyvariable;coded0formaleand1forfemale.

4.) Leadership:Thisisadummyvariable;coded0formemberswhodonotservein

theDemocraticParty’sleadershipand1formemberswhoserveasleaders.

5.) MarginofVictory2012:Thisisaratiovariable;therangeisfrom30to88.

6.) Pre-1992Cohort:Thisisadummyvariable;coded0formemberselectedafter

1992and1formemberselectedbeforethistime.

7.) %ForeignBorn:Thisisaratiovariable;therangeisfrom3to52.

8.) %Homeowners:Thisisaratiovariable;therangeisfrom10to66.

9.) %Poverty:Thisisaratiovariable;therangeisfrom0to28.

10.) %Unemployed:Thisisaratiovariable;therangeisfrom8to18.

11.) %White:Thisisratiovariable;therangeisfrom10to66.

12.) MedianAge:Thisisaratiovariable;therangeisfrom31to40.

13.) SouthernDistrict:Thisisadummyvariable;coded0formemberswho

representdistrictsoutsideoftheSouthand1formemberswhorepresent

southerndistricts.

35

Figure1

Source:Twitter

2%

16%

29%

7%

7%

10%

11%

18%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

CampaignInfo

ConstituencyService

EconomicIssues

Legislation

Other

PartisanPolitics

RacialIssues

SymbolicPolitics

PercentageofTweets

CBCMembers'TweetsbyContentCategory(113thCongress)

36

Figure2

Source:Twitter

1

50

6

1

1

55

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

BlackLivesMatter

BlackMenEnroll

MarissaAlexander

RememberTrayvon

Trayvon19

TrayvonMartin

NumberofTImesBlackTagwasMentionedinCBCMembers'Timelines

DistributionofBlackTagsinCBCMembers'Tweets(113thCongress)

37

Table1:PoissonRegressionModelsofCBCMembers’TweetsaboutRacialIssues

DataSources: Twitter;USCensusBureau

*=p£.10;**=p£.05;***=p£.01Standarderrorsarereportedinparentheses.

Variable Model1:MemberCharacteristics

Model2:DistrictDemographics

Model3:Characteristics+Demographics

Age .010(.013)

¾ .077(.012)

CBCFounder .668(.476)

¾ .339(.517)

Gender .492(.326)

¾ .695***(.235)

Leadership .129(.389)

¾ -.034(.303)

MOV2012 .011(.011)

¾ .022***(.006)

Pre-1992Cohort -.888**(392)

¾ -.603**(.286)

%ForeignBorn ¾ -.001(.122)

.003(.010)

%Homeowners ¾ .021(.016)

.015(.013)

%Poverty ¾ .080(.049)

.046(.011)

%Rural ¾ -.019(.012)

-.023**(.009)

%Unemployed ¾ .004(.052)

.068(.049)

%White ¾ .018*(.010)

.040***(.011)

MedianAge ¾ .086*(.050)

.131**(.062)

SouthernDistrict ¾ -.109(464)

.526*(.314)

Constant 2.57***(.973)

-1.95(2.41)

-6.73*(3.206)

R2 .22 .26 .54