TVS Motor, 4th February, 2013

7/29/2019 TVS Motor, 4th February, 2013

1/12

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

EBITDA 107 129 (16.8) 101 5.7

Adj. EBITDA margin (%) 5.9 7.2 (130)bp 6.0 (4)bp

Source: Company, Angel Research

For 3QFY2013, TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reported lower-than-expected results

on the bottom-line front primarily owing to EBITDA margin pressures. The EBITDA

margin remained stable on a sequential basis at 5.9%, lower than our

expectations of 6.5%, led by higher promotional expenditure related to the launch

of Phoenix and the festival season. Going ahead, the recent launch of Phoenix,

coupled with the impending launches of two scooters, one motorcycle and a diesel

three-wheeler in FY2014 is expected to boost volumes and enable the company

recover some lost ground in FY2014. Additionally, reduction in interest cost due to

retiring of interest bearing debt will also boost profitability going ahead.

For 3QFY2013, TVSL registered a

modest growth of 1.3% yoy (6.4% qoq) in its top-line to `1,799cr due to a 2.1%

yoy (up 6.7% qoq) decline in volumes led by the slowdown in the

two-wheeler industry and increasing competition. On the operating front, the

EBITDA margin came in at 5.9%, witnessing a decline of 130bp yoy (flat qoq)

primarily due to higher promotional expenditure related to the launch of Phoenix

and also on account of the festival season. The raw-material cost as a percentage

of sales however, remained stable on a yoy as well as qoq basis. Consequently,

the net profit posted a decline of 7.2% yoy (up 16.1% qoq on higher volumes) to

`52cr as against our expectations of `59cr. On the positive side, interest expense

declined 15.1% yoy (22.4% qoq) as the company reduced its interest bearing debt

by`180cr in 9MFY2013.

We expect the companys total volumes to recover (driven

by new launches) and register a growth of 8% in FY2014 after posting a decline

of 8.5% in FY2013. At `43, TVSL is trading at an attractive valuation of

8.1x FY2014E earnings.

% chg 41.9 13.3 (1.5) 11.5

% chg 65.7 25.3 (18.6) 23.8

EBITDA (%) 6.2 6.6 6.0 6.3

P/E (x) 10.2 8.1 10.0 8.1

P/BV (x) 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4

RoE (%) 21.3 22.9 16.4 18.0

RoCE (%) 15.2 18.5 14.5 16.9

EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.1 3.8 3.8 2.9


CMP `43

Target Price `47

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 57.4

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 24.0

FII / NRIs / OCBs 2.3

Indian Public / Others 16.3

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 6.6 14.3 20.9

TVS Motor 10.2 (18.9) 15.2

TVSL@IN

2,024

1.3

56/32

317,508

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

1.0

19,781

5,999

TVSM.BO

Automobile

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Net Debt (`cr) 638

022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844

[email protected]

Performance Highlights

3QFY2013 Result Update | Automobile

February 1, 2013


2/12

TVS Motor Company | 3QFY2013 Result Update

February 1, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:Quarterly financial performance (Standalone)

Consumption of RM 1,256 1,243 1.0 1,185 5.9 3,745 3,965 (5.5)

(% of Sales) 69.8 70.0 70.1 70.5 71.9

Staff Costs 104 90 15.2 108 (3.2) 314 274 14.6

(% of Sales) 5.8 5.1 6.4 5.9 5.0

Purchase of goods 40 35 12.2 37 6.3 110 107 2.2

(% of Sales) 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9

Other Expenses 292 278 5.3 259 13.0 825 782 5.5

(% of Sales) 16.3 15.6 15.3 15.5 14.2

OPM (%) 5.9 7.2 6.0 5.9 7.0

Interest 12 14 (15.1) 15 (22.4) 42 44 (3.0)

Depreciation 33 30 11.0 32 2.5 96 86 11.6Other Income 5 (10) (147.7) 4 11 14 0 3,618.9

15.2

Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - - - - - -

(% of Sales) 3.7 4.3 3.4 3.6 4.6

Provision for Taxation 15 19 (23.5) 13 12.1 43 62 (31.9)

(% of PBT) 21.7 25.2 22.3 (2.7) 22.2 24.5

Adj. PATM 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.5

Equity capital (cr) 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5


Exhibit 2:3QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates

EBITDA 107 119 (10.4)

EBITDA margin (%) 5.9 6.5 (59)bp



3/12


February 1, 2013 3

Exhibit 3:Quarterly volume performance

Domestic 459,463 460,800 (0.3) 430,029 6.8 884,322 978,056 (9.6)Exports 58,894 68,881 (14.5) 55,894 5.4 120,733 161,178 (25.1)

Domestic 153,413 142,516 7.6 124,935 22.8 267,348 330,670 (19.1)

Exports 44,873 52,406 (14.4) 45,891 (2.2) 96,824 123,125 (21.4)

Domestic 107,666 128,052 (15.9) 117,220 (8.2) 222,586 257,620 (13.6)

Exports 4,141 8,498 (51.3) 1,881 120.1 9,347 17,365 (46.2)

Domestic 193,677 186,472 3.9 183,335 5.6 386,582 383,531 0.8

Exports 985 2,796 (64.8) 448 119.9 1,076 4,939 (78.2)

Domestic 4,707 3,760 25.2 4,539 3.7 7,806 6,235 25.2

Exports 8,895 5,181 71.7 7,674 15.9 13,486 15,749 (14.4)


For

3QFY2013, TVSLs top-line registered a modest growth of 1.3% yoy to `1,799crmainly due to a 2.1% yoy decline in volumes during the quarter. Nonetheless, net

average realization increased 4.2% yoy (flat qoq) during the quarter. The weak

volume performance can be attributed to a general slowdown in the two-wheeler

industry and also increasing competition from Honda Motorcycle and Scooters

India Ltd (HMSI). As a result, scooter volume registered a sharp decline of 18.1%

yoy and motorcycle sales posted a sluggish growth of 1.7% yoy. Three-wheeler

sales on the other hand staged a recovery, posting a 52.1% yoy (11.4% qoq)

growth. On a sequential basis though, the top-line grew by 6.4% driven by a

volume growth of 6.7% led by the festival demand.

Exhibit 4:Total volumes down 2.1% yoy


Exhibit 5:Strong growth in net average realization


524,171 519,514 535,008

604,226

529,681 528,099 519,132485,923

518,357

39.9

24.0 15.3 15.1

1.1 1.7(3.0)

(19.6)

(2.1)

(30.0)

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

2Q

FY13

3Q

FY13

(%)(units) Total volume yoy growth (RHS)

30,781 30,968

31,91132,300

32,960

30,352

34,50234,196 34,344

7.6

8.98.1

6.77.1

(2.0)

8.1

5.9

4.2

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

2Q

FY13

3Q

FY13

(%)(`) Ne t ave rage realization yoy growth (RHS)


4/12


February 1, 2013 4

Exhibit 6:Muted growth in the top-line


Exhibit 7:Domestic market share trend

Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research

On the operatingfront, the EBITDA margin remained stable on a sequential basis at 5.9%, lower

than our expectations of 6.5%, led by higher promotional expenditure related to

the launch of Phoenix and also on account of the festival season. However, the

raw-material cost as a percentage of sales remained stable on a yoy as well as

qoq basis.

The Management expects operating margins to improve going ahead, led by

improved volumes, better-product-mix and benign raw material prices. However,

we believe that margin expansion would be limited given the weak domestic

demand scenario and increasing competition which would necessitate higher

promotional expenditure. Further new launches would also require higheradvertising expenditure.

Exhibit 8:EBITDA margin remains under pressure


Exhibit 9:Lower-than-expected bottom-line


TVSL reported a 7.2% yoy decline in its net

profit to `52cr; which was lower than our estimates of `59cr, mainly due to

lower-than-expected operating performance. However on the positive side, interest

expense declined 15.1% yoy (22.4% qoq) as the company reduced its interest

bearing debt by`

180cr in 9MFY2013.

1,647 1,635 1,746

1,991

1,775 1,627 1,820 1,691 1,799

51.1

34.5 25.3

23.2

7.8

(0.5)4.2

(15.1)

1.3

(20.0)

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)(`cr) Net sales (LHS) Net sales growth (RHS)

21.9 21.3 20.522.9

19.4

15.4 15.3 16.014.2

6.9 6.8 6.3 6.9 5.6 5.9 5.4 5.3 5.8

3.7 3.52.3 2.6 2.8 3.2 2.9

3.3 3.1

15.1 14.7 14.3 15.2 13.5 13.6 12.8 13.1 12.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%) Scooters Motor Cycles

Three Wheelers Total Two Wheelers

6.1 5.9 6.7 7.0 7.2 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.9

74.7 74.6 76.9 75.9 73.2 74.2 74.6 73.6 72.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales

56 44 59 77 57 57 51 45 52

3.4

2.7

3.4

3.9

3.23.5

2.8 2.72.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

(%)(`cr) Net prof it ( LHS) Net prof it margin (RHS)


5/12


February 1, 2013 5

Investment arguments

We expect TVSL to register adecline of 8.5% yoy in its total volumes in FY2013 due to the slowdown in

two-wheeler demand and rising competitive intensity in the sector.

Nonetheless, TVSL plans to launch two scooters, one motorcycle and a diesel

three-wheeler in FY2014, and we believe the success of these new launches is

key for the company to register volume growth going ahead. We expect the

new launches coupled with the recent launch of Phoenix to enable TVSL to

ramp up its monthly run rate and post annual volumes of 2.17mn units (8%

growth) in FY2014E.

Although the Management expectsoperating margins to improve going ahead, led by improved volumes,

better product mix, and benign raw material pricing environment; we believe

that scope for margin expansion would be limited. We believe that rising

competition coupled with new launches would necessitate higher

advertisement and promotional expenditure which would keep margins under

pressure. We expect the companys margin to improve by ~30bp in FY2014.

Outlook and valuation

We lower our FY2013 volume estimates to factor in the continued slowdown in the

domestic and export two-wheeler markets. We now expect TVSLs volumes to

decline by 8.5% yoy in FY2013. Further, we also lower our operating margin

estimates for FY2013 to factor in the lower-than-expected performance during thequarter. We expect the operating environment to remain challenging for TVSL in

4QFY2014 as well, mainly due to rising competition in the sector amidst

moderation in demand.

Exhibit 10:Change in estimates

OPM (%) 6.2 6.5 6.0 6.3 (20)bp (20)bp


Nevertheless, the recent launch of Phoenix, coupled with the impending launch of

two scooters, one motorcycle and a diesel three-wheeler in FY2014 is expected to

boost volumes and enable the company recover some lost ground in FY2014.

Additionally, reduction is interest cost due to retiring of interest bearing debt will

also boost profitability going ahead. At the current market price of `43, TVSL is

trading at an attractive valuation of 8.1x FY2014E earnings.


6/12


February 1, 2013 6

Exhibit 11:Key assumptions

Motorcycles 634,918 640,965 836,821 841,362 753,019 798,200

Scooters 246,153 309,501 452,006 529,095 444,440 511,106

Mopeds 435,589 571,563 703,717 785,942 766,293 812,271

Three-Wheelers 4,874 14,866 39,860 39,739 46,097 48,863

Motorcycles 6.2 1.0 30.6 0.5 (10.5) 6.0

Scooters (6.9) 25.7 46.0 17.1 (16.0) 15.0

Mopeds 5.9 31.2 23.1 11.7 (2.5) 6.0

Three-Wheelers 3,707.8 205.0 168.1 (0.3) 16.0 6.0


Exhibit 12:Angel vs consensus forecast

EPS (`) 4.3 5.3 4.3 5.4 (1.6) (1.4)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 13:One-year forward P/E band


Exhibit 14:One-year forward P/E chart


Exhibit 15:One-year forward EV/EBITDA band


Exhibit 16:Two-wheeler stocks performance vs Sensex


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Apr-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Feb-0

7

Feb-0

8

Feb-0

9

Feb-1

0

Jan-1

1

Jan-1

2

Jan-1

3

(`) Share Price (`) 6x 9x 12x 15x

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-1

1

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-1

2

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-1

3

(x) One-yr forward P /E Three-yr average P/E

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Apr-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Feb-07

Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

(` cr) EV (` cr) 4x 6x 8x 10x

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Mar-

08

Aug-

08

Jan-0

9

Jul-

09

Dec-0

9

May-

10

Oct-

10

Apr-

11

Sep-

11

Feb-

12

Jul-

12

Jan-1

3

TVSL HMCL BJAUT Sensex


7/12


February 1, 2013 7

Exhibit 17:Automobile - Recommendation summary

Ashok Leyland Buy 25 28 15.5 16.6 11.1 6.6 5.4 9.3 13.3 2.7Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,053 - - 19.1 16.2 13.4 10.9 45.8 42.8 8.9

Hero MotoCorp Accumulate 1,813 1,923 6.1 17.1 15.1 8.7 7.2 44.3 40.9 5.3

Maruti Suzuki Neutral 1,609 - - 25.0 16.8 12.2 8.1 11.6 15.3 37.5

Mahindra &Mahindra

Accumulate 886 998 12.6 16.3 14.3 9.4 7.7 24.2 23.2 15.3

Tata Motors Buy 285 337 18.2 8.0 6.7 4.1 3.6 30.2 27.6 12.3


Company background

TVS Motor (TVSL), a flagship company of the TVS Group, is the third largest 2W

manufacturer in India. The company is present across the motorcycles, scooters

and mopeds segments, having a market share of ~8%, ~22% and 100%,

respectively. The company successfully ventured into the 3W segment in FY2009

and garnered a ~5% market share as of March 31, 2012. The company has three

manufacturing facilities in India, located at Hosur (Tamil Nadu), Mysore

(Karnataka) and Solan (Himachal Pradesh) with 2W and 3W capacity of 2.75mn

and 75,000 units, respectively. TVSL is also the second largest exporter of

two-wheelers in the country.


8/12


February 1, 2013 8

Profit and loss statement (Standalone)

% chg 14.2 18.5 41.9 13.3 (1.5) 11.53,552 4,243 5,896 6,657 6,598 7,337

Net raw material costs 2,783 3,137 4,614 5,261 5,152 5,737

Other mfg costs 111 133 171 202 218 239

Employee expenses 205 248 327 370 393 446

Other 453 724 784 823 835 916

% chg 94.9 0.4 109.2 19.7 (10.3) 16.2

(% of total op. income) 5.0 4.2 6.2 6.6 6.0 6.3

Depreciation & amortization 103 103 107 118 128 136

% chg 6,824.8 1.3 235.5 23.5 (16.7) 20.6


Interest and other charges 65 75 72 57 54 51

Other income 12 67 36 22 22 23

% chg (12.1) 144.9 225.7 27.6 (17.5) 24.6

Extraordinary income/(exp.) 2 (32) (4) - - -

Tax 0 (12) 54 67 59 75

(% of PBT) 0.1 (11.0) 21.2 21.3 22.5 23.0

% chg 872.9 306.6 65.7 25.3 (18.6) 23.8


% chg 872.9 306.6 65.6 25.3 (18.6) 23.8


9/12


February 1, 2013 9

Balance sheet statement (Standalone)

Equity share capital 24 24 48 48 48 48Reserves & surplus 786 842 952 1,122 1,257 1,436

Total loans 906 1,003 633 715 565 535

Deferred tax liability 148 115 96 98 98 98

Other long term liabilities - - - - - -

Long term provisions - - 43 49 49 49

Gross block 1,865 1,909 1,972 2,154 2,285 2,421

Less: Acc. depreciation 869 953 1,035 1,129 1,257 1,392

Capital work-in-progress 40 27 57 53 57 61

Goodwill - - - - - -

Long term loans and advances - - 96 53 53 53

Other noncurrent assets - - - - - -

Current assets 894 965 1,106 1,078 1,101 1,360

Cash 42 101 6 13 56 190

Loans & advances 350 354 301 247 246 274

Other 502 511 799 819 799 896

Current liabilities 619 734 1,086 1,110 1,154 1,268

Misc. exp. not written off 75 30 - - - -


10/12


February 1, 2013 10

Cash flow statement (Standalone)

Profit before tax 31 76 248 316 261 325

Depreciation 103 103 107 118 128 136Change in working capital (29) 103 (67) 63 70 (11)

Others 66 112 35 33 - -

Other income (12) (67) (36) (22) (22) (23)

Direct taxes paid (0) 12 (54) (67) (59) (75)

(Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets (88) (30) (93) (177) (135) (140)

(Inc.)/Dec. in investments (139) (262) 78 (270) - -

Other income 12 67 36 22 22 23

Issue of equity - - 24 - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 240 97 (295) (72) (150) (30)

Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) 19 33 60 72 72 72

Others (226) (102) (218) (150) - -

Inc./(Dec.) in cash (22) 142 (174) (135) 43 133


11/12


February 1, 2013 11

Key ratios

P/E (on FDEPS) 68.6 16.9 10.2 8.1 10.0 8.1P/CEPS 15.1 9.1 6.6 5.5 6.1 5.2

P/BV 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4

Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.1

EV/Sales 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

EV/EBITDA 20.3 18.2 5.1 3.8 3.8 2.9

EV / Total Assets 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7

EPS (Basic) 0.7 1.9 4.1 5.2 4.3 5.3

EPS (fully diluted) 0.6 2.5 4.2 5.2 4.3 5.3

Cash EPS 2.8 4.7 6.4 7.7 7.0 8.1

DPS 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3

Book Value 17.1 18.2 21.0 24.6 27.5 31.2

EBIT margin 2.3 1.9 4.5 4.9 4.2 4.5

Tax retention ratio 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Asset turnover (x) 2.2 2.4 3.4 3.8 3.5 4.0

ROIC (Post-tax) 4.9 5.2 12.3 14.6 11.4 13.8

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 8.2 8.8 7.0 6.7 6.5 7.1

Leverage (x) 0.4 0.3 0.1 (0.1) (0.3) (0.4)

Operating ROE 3.5 4.0 12.7 13.7 10.1 11.4

ROCE (Pre-tax) 4.8 4.4 15.2 18.5 14.5 16.9

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 0.9 0.9 16.1 17.4 15.0 17.9

ROE 3.6 14.3 21.3 22.9 16.4 18.0

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.0 2.3 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.3

Inventory / Sales (days) 36 26 24 28 29 29

Receivables (days) 13 17 14 13 13 13

Payables (days) 53 51 49 53 56 53

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 21 15 4 (1) (4) (5)

Net debt to equity 0.5 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4)

Net debt to EBITDA 2.1 0.9 (0.1) (0.5) (1.0) (1.2)

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 1.3 1.1 3.9 6.2 5.5 7.0


12/12


February 1 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement TVS Motor Company

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Documents

TVS Motor, 4th February, 2013